[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|证券Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [证Table_券Title] Ⅱ行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 公募规模破 30 万亿，固收产品贡献核心推力 报告日期 2024-06-07 核心[T 观able 点_Sum ：mary] 相[Ta对ble市_Pi场cQu表ote现] ⚫ 概览：5月新成立基金94只，新发基金热度下降，在金融业监管趋严 12% 的背景下，资本市场震荡打击基金新发力度。据 Wind 统计，以基金 6% 成立日口径统计，2024年5月新成立基金94只，环比下降21.67%， -1% 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 同比下降 11.32%；该月新发行份额为 1010.52 亿份，环比下降 -7% 28.38%，同比增长43.47% -14% （1）债基仍然是新发基金主力。5月新发基金中，债券型基金发行29 -20% 只，发行份额达 846.77 亿份，环比下降 28.19%，占新发基金截止日 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 份额的 83.80%，达到历史较高位置，相较于今年 4 月仍延续抬升态 势。股 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|计算机 证券研究报告 [计Table_算Title] 机行业 [Table_Grade行] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 行业整体仍然建议谨慎、继续重点推荐顶点 报告日期 2024-06-09 软件等个股和细分领域 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 11% 0% 06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24  核心观点：1. 结论：行业处于相对底部区域，但缺乏整体性的驱动力。。 -11% -21% 2. 当前位置行业估值相当于 24 年 1 月初的水平，但当前中信计算机 -32% 指数较2月初最低点高出约15.4%。3. 一方面，当前市场风险偏好仍 -42% 然较低，只是未必有 1 月底极端，包括当时对业绩预告的担忧等。所 计算机 沪深300 以我们判断行业整体应该接近阶段性底部区域。4. 另一方面，当前这 个估值水平对比成长性而言仍然缺乏吸引力。5. 顶点软件、中望软件、 [T分abl析e_A师ut：ho r] 刘雪峰 宝信软件、金蝶国际、紫光股份等个股，智能汽车、工业软件包括EDA ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the acceleration of civil aviation and gas turbine exports, alongside the recovery of domestic large aircraft and equipment demand [1][5] - The domestic core supplier of aviation structural components, AVIC Heavy Machinery, is accelerating its overseas layout [1][5] - The report highlights the potential for new growth in the aerospace industry, supported by low-altitude economic policies and the continuous improvement of the domestic rocket launch supply chain [1][5][6] Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - Focus on civil aviation and gas turbine exports, with a recovery in equipment demand expected [5] - AVIC Heavy Machinery's successful delivery of the first A320 front landing gear component marks a significant milestone [5] - The report notes the successful test launch of SpaceX's Starship and the completion of the second launch pad at Hainan's commercial spaceport [5] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the industry, with sustained high demand in civil aviation and shipbuilding sectors [6] - AVIC Heavy Machinery reported a strong foreign trade growth in Q1 2024, achieving revenue of 264 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 96.42% [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a low valuation strategy, focusing on the recovery of military industrial stocks [6] - Key companies to watch include AVIC Power, AVIC Control, AVIC Heavy Machinery, and others, with a focus on both "certainty" and "growth" premiums [6][7][8] Company-Specific Insights - AVIC Power is expected to benefit from high-end aviation equipment production and has a projected revenue of 49.76 billion CNY for 2024 [7] - AVIC Control is positioned as a leading supplier of aviation engine control systems, with a projected net profit of 853 million CNY for 2024 [7] - AVIC Heavy Machinery is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.585 billion CNY in 2024, benefiting from the recovery of aviation equipment demand [8]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|养殖业 证券研究报告 [温Table_氏Title] 股份（300498.SZ） [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 买入 当前价格 21.70元 5 月生猪出栏同比增长，养殖成本下降继续超预期 合理价值 26.73元 前次评级 买入 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： 报告日期 2024-06-06 ⚫ 5月生猪出栏维持同比增长，成本下降继续超预期。公司发布月度经营 相[Ta对ble市_Pi场cQu表ote现] 公告，24 年 5 月销售生猪 237.89 万头，环比减少 4.2%，同比增长 13.6%；实现收入46.6亿元，同比增长27.2%；销售均价15.83元/公 38% 斤；测算出栏均重123.75公斤，环比下降0.24%。1-5月，公司累计 27% 销售生猪 1204 万头，同比增长 22.9%。公司生猪生产保持高质量稳 16% 定，成本下降继续超预期，据投资者关系活动记录表，4月公司养殖综 5% 合成本为14.4元/公斤。母猪产能方面，截至4月底公司能繁母猪存栏 -6%06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 0 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|养殖业 证券研究报告 [牧Table_原Title] 股份（002714.SZ） [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 买入 当前价格 48.20元 5 月生猪养殖实现盈利，成本环比继续下行 合理价值 57.31元 前次评级 买入 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： 报告日期 2024-06-06 ⚫ 5 月出栏量有所增长，仔猪销售占比保持相对高位。公司披露 5 月份 相[Ta对ble市_Pi场cQu表ote现] 生猪销售情况简报，5月销售生猪586.0万头，环比增长7.52%，同比 增长 1.67%；实现销售收入 104.5 亿元，同比增长10.1%。其中，公 24% 司商品猪/仔猪/种猪出栏量分别为491.2/88.1/6.6万头，仔猪销售占比 15% 为15.03%，较4月减少4.2pct。5月公司商品猪销售均价为15.52元 7% /公斤，养殖实现单月盈利；测算出栏均重为114.9公斤。1-5月，公司 -2%06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 06/24 累计销售生猪2732.1万头，同比增长9.5%；其中商品猪/ ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.74 CNY per share based on a 27x PE valuation for 2024 [6][23]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Northwest liquor market, with strong revenue growth projected at 21.5% for 2024, 17.7% for 2025, and 16.1% for 2026. Net profit is expected to grow by 24.2%, 20.9%, and 19.9% respectively during the same period [6][23]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in Eastern China while maintaining a stronghold in the Northwest region, indicating a strategic shift towards national expansion [6][23]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 30.95 billion CNY in 2024, 36.44 billion CNY in 2025, and 42.29 billion CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.5%, 17.7%, and 16.1% respectively [6][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.1 billion CNY in 2024, 4.9 billion CNY in 2025, and 5.9 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 24.2%, 20.9%, and 19.9% [6][3]. Product Segmentation - High-end liquor sales are expected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates of 31.7%, 25.0%, and 22.5% from 2024 to 2026, driven by increased consumer demand and company promotions [6][17]. - Mid-range liquor is also projected to see robust growth, with revenue growth rates of 23.7%, 19.4%, and 17.3% during the same period [6][18]. - Low-end liquor sales are forecasted to grow at rates of 13.8%, 11.5%, and 10.3% from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a steady demand in this segment [6][2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds the largest market share in Gansu province and is recognized as a leading brand in the Northwest liquor market, which enhances its competitive edge [6][23]. - The company is implementing a differentiated marketing strategy across various regions, focusing on local consumer preferences and expanding its distribution channels [6][20]. Online Sales and Digital Marketing - The establishment of an internet sales company in 2022 aims to enhance online marketing efforts, with flagship stores set up on major e-commerce platforms to cater to younger consumers [6][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Conch Cement [4]. Core Views - Conch Cement continues to lead the domestic cement industry with significant profit advantages, even at the bottom of the market cycle, demonstrating resilience [2]. - The company has expanded its business into aggregates and overseas cement markets to mitigate pressures from its core domestic cement operations [2]. - Profit forecasts indicate a gradual recovery, with expected net profits of 9.517 billion, 10.424 billion, and 11.269 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Profitability - Conch Cement is recognized as a leader in the cement industry, with a consistent profit scale that ranks first in the sector, achieving revenues of 141 billion yuan and net profits of 10.4 billion yuan in 2023 [13][16]. - The company has significantly increased its production capacity over the years, with clinker capacity rising from 23 million tons in 2003 to 272 million tons in 2023, and cement capacity from 30 million tons to 395 million tons [20]. 2. Profitability Advantages and Cost Management - The report highlights that Conch Cement's profitability per ton remains superior, with estimates of approximately 27 yuan per ton in Q1 2024, while most competitors are expected to incur losses [2]. - The company maintains a cost advantage of 25-35 yuan per ton compared to the industry average, attributed to its T-shaped strategy, technological advancements, and efficient management practices [2]. 3. Business Expansion into Aggregates and Overseas Markets - To counterbalance domestic market pressures, Conch Cement has diversified into aggregates and concrete businesses, with aggregate capacity reaching 150 million tons per year by the end of 2023, contributing 8% to gross profit [2][16]. - The overseas cement market has also been a focus, with revenues from international operations amounting to 5.1 billion yuan in 2023, representing 3.6% of total revenue [2]. 4. Profit Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The report projects net profits for Conch Cement to be 9.517 billion yuan in 2024, 10.424 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.269 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.4, 12.2, and 11.3 [2]. - The report suggests a reasonable PB valuation of 0.85 for 2024, leading to a target price of 30.39 yuan per share for A shares and 24.48 HKD for H shares [2].

[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [金Table_属Title] 及金属新材料行业 6 月策略 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 6 月密切关注需求的落地 报告日期 2024-06-02 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 基本金属：期待国内外实际需求改善、减小与价格的偏离，预计基本 10% 金属价格震荡上行。5月基本金属的需求预期改善，铜逼仓使得价格快 2% -6%06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 速上涨后回调。6月份的核心焦点在实际需求减小与价格的偏离：一是 -14% 虽然通胀仍强，但海外需求好转或强于预期。二是国内地产、汽车、家 -22% 电等“稳增长”政策落地带来实际需求的改善与信心修复。建议关注： -30% 有色金属 沪深300 紫金矿业、洛阳钼业（A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中国铝业（A+H）、 云铝股份、天山铝业等。 ⚫ 钢铁：5月供需较弱，预计6月钢材价利平稳。供给端，5月盈利率弱 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 宫帅 修复提升供给， ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [农Table_林Title] 牧渔行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 热浪来袭，印度农业生产或受冲击 报告日期 2024-06-04 核心[T 观able 点_Sum ：mary] 相[Ta对ble市_Pi场cQu表ote现]  印度遭遇百年来最强酷暑，多地气温超过50℃。当地时间5月29日， 8% 印度首都新德里遭遇史无前例的52.3℃极端高温，多地气温突破50℃， 3% 西北部的多个邦5月来已经历9-12天的热浪，气温在45-50°C之间。 -2%06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 此次高温现象主要是由于印度北部高空异常暖高压脊的形成，今年孟 -7% 加拉湾海温显著偏高，这一现象与厄尔尼诺现象向拉尼娜现象的转变 -13% 有关。4至6月通常为印度的热季，预计短期内超高温天气仍将持续。 -18%  高温天气或对糖、小麦、棉花等作物生产造成冲击。5-6月正值多种作 农林牧渔 沪深300 物生长期，持续高温干旱或带来减产影响：（1）糖：当前甘蔗处于苗 期，对降雨需求较高，若高温干旱 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|计算机 证券研究报告 [智Table_能Title] 驾驶网联月报（2024 年 4 月） [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 交通信息化迎政策利好，24H2 有望订单落地 报告日期 2024-06-02 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 交通信息化迎政策利好，24H2订单有望逐步落地。近日，财政部、交 14% 通运输部发布《关于支持引导公路水路交通基础设施数字化转型升级 2% 06-23 08-23 10-23 01-24 03-24 05-24 -9% 的通知》，决定通过竞争性评审方式支持引导公路水路交通基础设施数 -21% 字化转型升级，此次政策明确了资金来源、奖补比例、实施周期及建设 -32% 目标。我们估算，仅在公路交通领域，此次有望拉动 553-830 亿元投 -44% 计算机 沪深300 资，根据通知要求，此次政策实施第一年按照每个示范区域奖补资金的 40%予以补助，我们预计 2024H2 产业订单有望实现落地，建议积极 关注智慧交通标的。 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth o ...