Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone, indicating an upward turning point for domestic demand [2][4] - From December 9 to December 13, the SW basic chemical sector fell by 0.09%, outperforming the Wind All A Index by 0.11 percentage points; sub-industries showed a downward trend, with better performance in civil explosives, food and feed additives, and chlor-alkali [3][24] - Chemical prices have seen significant declines; among 336 tracked products, 26% increased, 46% remained stable, and 28% decreased [3][66] - The outlook for 2025 suggests a potential upward turning point driven by global interest rate cuts and domestic growth policies focusing on real estate, consumption, and broad social financing [4][24] Summary by Sections Overall Industry View - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a downward trend, but certain sub-industries are performing better [24] - The outlook for 2025 is optimistic due to policy support and a potential recovery in domestic demand [24] Key Sub-Industry Information Tracking - MDI market is stabilizing with low demand and supply constraints; prices for pure MDI and polymer MDI are 18,600 and 18,100 CNY/ton respectively [25] - TDI market remains stable despite tight supply; the average price is 12,900 CNY/ton [26] - Polyester filament market is weak with limited orders; prices for POY, DTY, and FDY are 7,600, 8,125, and 6,750 CNY/ton respectively [28] Data Tracking - The basic chemical sector's performance from December 9 to December 13 shows a slight decline, but it outperformed the broader market index [32] - Chemical prices have generally decreased, with significant drops in various products [66]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - In November 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.0%, with a total retail sales amount of 4.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to October [2][21] - Retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 3.90 trillion yuan, growing by 2.5% year-on-year [2] - Rural retail sales outpaced urban sales, with urban retail sales at 3.76 trillion yuan (YOY +2.9%) and rural retail sales at 0.62 trillion yuan (YOY +3.2%) [2] - The e-commerce penetration rate increased by 0.8 percentage points, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 11.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2] Summary by Sections Social Retail Sales - November social retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with a total of 4.38 trillion yuan [2][21] - The growth rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points from October [2] - Breakdown by region: urban retail sales were 3.76 trillion yuan (YOY +2.9%), while rural retail sales were 0.62 trillion yuan (YOY +3.2%) [2] Retail Categories - In November, retail sales of food and beverages grew by 10.1% and declined by 4.3% respectively [2] - Retail sales of cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry saw significant declines of -26.4% and -5.9% respectively [2] - Automotive retail sales increased by 6.6% year-on-year [2] E-commerce Performance - The e-commerce penetration rate reached 26.7%, up by 0.8 percentage points [2] - Online retail sales of physical goods for the first eleven months totaled 11.81 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Runben Co., Ltd., Marubi Biotechnology, Juzi Biological, and Proya for cosmetics [2] - For jewelry, focus on Laofengxiang and Zhou Dasheng, with attention to traditional festival consumption [2] - In tourism, consider companies involved in winter tourism and cross-border travel [2] - For offline retail, recommend brands like Miniso and Dashang Group, which are improving profit margins [2]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the home appliance industry, specifically Haier Smart Home and Hisense Home Appliances, due to their robust growth and overseas expansion strategies [5][9]. Core Insights - The home appliance export scale has shown steady growth, increasing from approximately $31.32 billion in 2009 to $88.88 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 9.3% over the past five years, outperforming domestic retail growth by approximately 7.3 percentage points [3][27]. - The export structure indicates that white goods account for the highest share at 37%, followed by black goods at 27%, small appliances at 34%, and kitchen appliances at 2% in 2023 [3][35]. - The primary export regions for Chinese home appliances in 2023 were Asia (36%), Europe (26%), and North America (16%), with a notable decline in North America's share by 15% from 2018 to 2023 [3][57]. Summary by Sections Home Appliance Exports: Steady Growth and Regional Changes - The total export volume has shown robust growth, significantly outpacing domestic sales over the last five years [27]. - By product category, white goods have the highest export share, while small appliances have demonstrated strong growth potential [35]. - The export distribution by region shows dominance in Asia and Europe, with a shrinking share in North America and rapid growth in emerging markets [57][63]. Future Outlook: Tariff Impacts and Leading Global Layouts - A potential new round of tariffs targeting imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has been announced, which could impact the home appliance sector [4]. - Leading companies like Midea and Haier have established extensive global operations, which may mitigate the adverse effects of tariffs [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that both domestic and international sales will be influenced by policy factors, with domestic sales benefiting from trade-in programs and expected recovery in demand [5]. - Recommended stocks include Haier Smart Home and Hisense Home Appliances for their stable growth and overseas expansion, as well as Hisense Visual, Aima Technology, Yadea Holdings, and XGIMI Technology for their domestic recovery potential [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand and regional strategic layout, focusing on key areas and state-owned enterprises [18][19]. - The conference highlights the need for balanced growth in speed and quality, as well as supply and demand [19][20]. - The government plans to increase fiscal and monetary policy support, with a focus on enhancing liquidity and increasing the fiscal deficit ratio [19][20]. - The 2025 key tasks include prioritizing domestic demand expansion, supporting new economic sectors, and promoting urban renewal projects [20][23]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Conference Insights - The conference identifies insufficient domestic demand as the primary challenge and acknowledges the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the external environment [18][19]. - It proposes a balanced approach to growth and competition, aiming to improve both the quality and quantity of economic output [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investments that enhance domestic demand, particularly in regions like East China, South China, and the Chengdu-Chongqing area [25]. - Key investment opportunities include state-owned enterprises involved in infrastructure and urban renewal projects, especially in the context of the New Era Western Development strategy [25][26]. Financial Tracking - As of December 13, 2024, the issuance of special bonds reached 39,940 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [34]. - The construction and decoration industry saw a cumulative decline of 1.0% in the week leading up to December 13, 2024, with specific sectors like steel structure and engineering consulting showing positive growth [32][34].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, supported by recent policy directions emphasizing "stabilizing the real estate market," "enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments," and "moderately easing monetary policy." This creates a favorable environment for subsequent fundamental stabilization, with expectations for more incremental policies to follow [66][77]. - The building materials industry is currently experiencing a downturn, but various segments are beginning to stabilize. Leading companies have demonstrated resilience through pressure tests, with retail building materials showing strength supported by demand for second-hand and existing home renovations [66][77]. - The report suggests focusing on growth-oriented and valuation-flexible consumer building materials, as well as cement and glass leaders that are at the bottom of their profit cycles, alongside opportunities in structural growth sectors such as pharmaceutical glass and wind power [66][77]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Direction and Sector Outlook - The political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference have set a positive tone, indicating strong support for the building materials sector through a favorable monetary environment and proactive fiscal expectations [66][77]. - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing counter-cyclical measures, which are expected to support the sector's recovery [66][77]. 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is characterized by stable long-term demand and improving industry concentration, with leading companies showing strong operational resilience [78]. - Key companies to watch include SanKeTree, Rabbit Baby, North New Materials, Weixing New Materials, China Liansu, Dongpeng Holdings, and Oriental Yuhong, with additional attention on Jianlang Hardware, Arrow Home, Mona Lisa, Keshun Shares, ZhiTe New Materials, and Wangli Security [78]. 3. Cement Market - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, with an average price of 424 RMB/ton as of December 13, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43 RMB/ton [66][78]. - The report anticipates a continued adjustment in cement prices, with leading companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement expected to perform better than their peers during this downturn [78]. 4. Glass and Fiberglass Market - The report notes that the price of float glass remains weak but stable, with an average price of 1410 RMB/ton as of December 13, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 30.3% year-on-year [66][78]. - In the fiberglass sector, prices for direct yarn have stabilized after an increase, with leading companies such as China Jushi and Changhai Co. expected to perform well [78].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the decline in interest rates promotes the utility sector's transformation, with falling coal prices highlighting the potential for a shift towards natural gas [2][19]. - The report anticipates that the valuation of utilities will improve due to the bond-like characteristics of the sector, especially as the ten-year government bond yield drops below 2% [19]. - The report outlines a three-point outlook for the utility sector, focusing on the impact of coal prices, supply-demand dynamics, and the upcoming results of long-term electricity price agreements [2][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Interest Rate Decline and Utility Valuation - The report discusses the historical correlation between the stock price of Changjiang Electric and government bond yields, noting that a decline in interest rates has historically led to significant stock price increases [19]. - The report highlights that Changjiang Electric's stock price has shown resilience and growth during periods of declining interest rates, benefiting from stable dividends and a strong cash flow [19][24]. 2. 2025 Investment Strategy: Focus on Natural Gas - The report identifies a potential investment opportunity driven by natural gas, particularly with the expected release of global LNG capacity from 2025 to 2030 [30]. - It notes that the current market conditions suggest a potential decline in natural gas prices, which could lead to a decrease in coal prices as well [30][34]. 3. Policy Review and Industry Data Tracking - The report mentions that multiple provinces have released electricity trading plans, which could impact market dynamics [8]. - It tracks high-frequency data indicating stability in domestic and international coal prices, with a noted decrease in coastal power plant load [8]. 4. Key Company Announcements and Sector Performance - The report provides updates on key companies within the sector, including Huadian International and Longyuan Power, and notes that the sector's valuation is currently at a low point compared to historical levels, presenting a potential opportunity for revaluation [8]. 5. Focus on Specific Companies - The report highlights several companies to watch, including Anhui Energy, Zhejiang Energy, and China General Nuclear Power, all rated as "Buy" with specific price targets and earnings forecasts [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to boost consumption, highlighting that the Politburo meeting proposed more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to enhance domestic demand [22][21] - In November, home appliance exports showed good growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in RMB terms and 10.1% in USD terms [2][22] - The report recommends several companies, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, which are expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and the recovery of domestic demand [28][22] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - White goods are expected to see stable growth, with a recommendation for Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their stable ROE and high dividend advantages [28][22] - Additional recommendations include Hisense Visual, Aima Technology, Yadea Holdings, and XGIMI Technology, which are anticipated to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and the recovery of domestic demand [28][22] Weekly Market Review (2024.12.09-2024.12.13) - The report notes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.0%, while the home appliance sector index rose by 1.1% [2][32] - The black appliance index increased by 0.1%, and the white appliance index rose by 0.9% during the same period [2][32] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of a real-name system for home appliance consumption invoices and the cancellation of delayed shipments, reflecting new policy directions [47][48] - It highlights that the home appliance "old-for-new" sales exceeded 200 billion RMB since the national subsidy policy was launched, significantly stimulating consumer replacement intentions [48][47]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The central economic work conference has set the policy framework for the coming year, emphasizing a more proactive macro policy and deepening capital market reforms to stabilize expectations and boost domestic demand [4][27] - The comprehensive reform of investment and financing is expected to attract long-term capital into the market, with a focus on the insurance sector benefiting from the expansion of personal pension systems and product offerings [4][26] - The report suggests a focus on stocks such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, China Taiping, Ping An, China Property & Casualty, New China Life, and AIA Group due to their potential for valuation recovery [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance - As of December 13, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3391.88 points, down 0.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10713.07 points, down 0.73% [15] 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The personal pension system will be expanded nationwide from December 15, 2024, which is expected to significantly increase the scale of the third pillar of pension insurance [17][18] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the growing demand for savings-type products, with life insurance premium growth showing signs of improvement [21][26] (b) Securities - The central economic work conference has highlighted the importance of the capital market, with expectations for IPOs and refinancing to gradually relax, which could enhance market activity [27][28] - The report notes that the merger and acquisition activities among brokerages are gaining momentum, which may attract new capital into the sector [27][29] 3. Key Company Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the insurance and securities sectors, recommending a "Buy" rating for several major players based on their expected performance and market conditions [7][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - Policy stimulus boosts confidence and market sentiment is recovering. The recent Central Economic Work Conference prioritized "boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand," leading to various local dining consumption policies that are expected to release further potential in the dining sector. Supply chain companies in the dining industry play a crucial role in linking upstream and downstream, and improvements in domestic demand will have a significant impact on them, likely following a path of "short-term volume increase - mid-term efficiency optimization - long-term structural upgrade" [1][24][50] - The dining industry is undergoing structural adjustments, presenting new opportunities in the supply chain. Over the past decade, the dining industry has experienced rapid growth, branding, and chain development. However, in 2023, factors such as slow recovery in consumer demand and economic cycle changes have led to a slowdown in overall dining scale growth, creating new competitive dynamics. The industry is currently at a cyclical low point, but policy stimulus is expected to bring new opportunities [1][24][34] Monthly Focus - The dining market is showing signs of recovery, with policy stimulus enhancing consumer confidence. The issuance of consumption vouchers has a multiplier effect, significantly boosting dining consumption. For instance, during the issuance period in Shanghai, offline dining consumption increased by 11.4% year-on-year [25][26][28] - The dining supply chain companies are expected to benefit directly from the recovery of dining enterprises, with short inventory cycles and high turnover efficiency allowing for quick order responses [50] Market Review - In November, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 1.7 percentage points, with a 2.4% increase in the sector overall. The sub-sectors of leisure food and non-liquor beverages saw significant gains, while the liquor sector experienced smaller increases [2][97] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the PE (ttm) at 21.62X, in the 17th percentile since 2010, and the PB (lf) at 4.57X, in the 33rd percentile since 2010 [114] Fundamental Tracking - The overall retail sales in November increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with essential consumer goods showing varied performance. The food and beverage retail sales saw a 10.1% increase for grain and oil products, while beverage sales declined by 4.3% [124] - The liquor industry entered its off-season in November, with prices showing slight recovery. The average price of high-end liquor has increased, indicating potential for recovery in the sector [131] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are core recommendations, while attention should be given to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye for their allocation value. In the consumer goods sector, companies such as Tianwei Food, Angel Yeast, and Yili Group are recommended, with a focus on their competitive landscape and product channel expansion [152]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of REITs periodic reporting requirements as of November 29, which mandates higher disclosure standards for operational indicators and the impact of competitive projects on fund holders' rights [1][18] - The Hong Kong government has exempted REITs from stamp duty on transfers and sales, reducing transaction costs for REITs in Hong Kong [1][18] - The report notes a gradual normalization in project issuance, with an increase in the number and scale of projects submitted for approval [1][27] Summary by Sections Policy Review and Market Outlook - The report discusses the new guidelines issued by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, which require consistent disclosure of operational indicators and the impact of competitive projects on fund holders [18][22] - It also mentions local policies supporting the issuance of REITs in specific regions, such as the Suzhou Industrial Park [18][21] Market Overview - In November, the C-REITs comprehensive income index rose by 0.15%, with an average turnover rate of 0.68% [2] - The total number of listed C-REITs reached 51, with a total market size of 135.39 billion, reflecting a 7.17% increase [2] - The report indicates that the total trading volume for November was 2.2 billion units, marking a 19.40% increase [2] Project Issuance and Future Plans - In November, six projects were accepted for review, with an assessed value of 9.908 billion, including four new projects and two expansion projects [1][27] - As of November 30, there were 18 projects under review, with a total assessed value of 27.717 billion [27][29] - The report notes that the second batch of expansion projects is concentrated in the well-performing rental housing and new energy sectors, with a total expansion scale of 7.447 billion [29]