Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent market dynamics indicate a weak overall coal price, but power plant daily consumption is recovering, and inventory pressure at northern ports is easing. The CCI5500 thermal coal price index has decreased by 19 RMB/ton to 799 RMB/ton, with domestic port thermal coal prices dropping approximately 20 RMB/ton. However, as temperatures drop, coal demand is expected to improve, leading to a potential stabilization and rebound in coal prices [5][6] - The coal market has been weak since October, particularly for thermal coal, due to high production and imports, as well as relatively warm winter temperatures. However, as winter storage demand increases and supply constraints are expected at the end of December and into January-February, coal prices are anticipated to stabilize and rebound [6][5] - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing expansion, which suggests a positive outlook for coal demand [6] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices are under pressure, with port prices dropping and production areas experiencing price declines. The average price for CCI5500 thermal coal is reported at 790 RMB/ton, down 22 RMB/ton week-on-week. The inventory at major ports has decreased, indicating a potential for price stabilization as demand increases with colder weather [53][60] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate is at 93.6%, with a slight increase week-on-week. Coal inventories at major ports have decreased by 1.4%, while power plant coal inventories have increased slightly [60][63] Industry Viewpoints - The coal market remains weak, particularly for thermal coal, but there are signs of recovery in demand as temperatures drop. The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with some companies beginning to see positive year-on-year profit growth [6][5] - Key companies to watch include those with stable dividends and low valuations, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as those expected to benefit from improving demand [6] Key Companies - Notable companies with strong fundamentals include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a target price of 44.13 RMB/share and a current price of 42.60 RMB/share [10] - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) with a target price of 26.90 RMB/share and a current price of 24.61 RMB/share [10] - Yancoal (600188.SH) with a target price of 24.91 RMB/share and a current price of 14.61 RMB/share [10] - Other companies with potential include Huai Bei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal, which are expected to benefit from improving demand and have low price-to-book ratios [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Base metals are expected to experience price fluctuations due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic economic policies supporting demand recovery. The anticipated fiscal policies in 2025 are expected to further boost domestic demand, while industrial metal supply remains weak and electrolytic aluminum costs are high [2][3] - The steel sector is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance with slight price increases, although profit margins are projected to continue declining. The recovery of economic policies is expected to restore market expectations [2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are anticipated to continue their upward trend, supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is advised to seize opportunities during price corrections [3] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are expected to see slight price declines as the market transitions into a seasonal downturn, although the anticipated oversupply in 2025 may limit the extent of price drops [3] Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - From December 9 to December 13, the industrial metal index decreased by 0.16%, while the precious metal index increased by 0.89%. The small metal index fell by 1.59%, and the new materials index dropped by 1.90% [26] 2. Metal Prices - Base metals: LME copper price decreased by 0.40% to $9,056.50 per ton, LME aluminum increased by 0.29% to $2,615.00 per ton, and LME lead decreased by 2.56% to $2,013.50 per ton. SHFE copper price increased by 0.08% to ¥74,790.00 per ton [43] - Steel prices: The price of ordinary steel increased by 0.89% to ¥3,760.00 per ton, while iron ore prices decreased by 0.06% to ¥797.00 per ton [43] - Precious metals: COMEX gold rose by 0.41% to $2,665.90 per ounce, while SHFE gold increased by 1.57% to ¥625.60 per gram [43] - Energy metals: Battery-grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.65% to ¥76,300.00 per ton, while lithium hydroxide price increased by 0.50% to ¥69,000.00 per ton [43] 3. Macroeconomic Factors - The report highlights the influence of macroeconomic policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the metals market, indicating a close relationship between economic recovery and metal demand [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight appreciation of the RMB and a significant widening of the China-US interest rate spread [2][3]. - The RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the SDR, with notable depreciation of non-USD currencies, particularly the Euro and Yen, influenced by economic conditions and monetary policy adjustments [18][19]. - The 10-year China-US bond yield spread has widened significantly, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 25 basis points while the Chinese bond yield fell by 15 basis points [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The RMB appreciated slightly, with the SDR to RMB exchange rate at 9.54, reflecting a 0.25% increase [18]. - The interest rate spread between China and the US has widened, with the 10-year spread at -2.62%, a decrease of 43 basis points from the previous period [19]. - The actual annual returns from RMB arbitrage trading against US Treasuries have decreased, with the 10-year return at 2.75%, down by 0.19 percentage points [19]. 2. SDR Major Economies Tracking - In China, the 10-year government bond yield has significantly decreased, and the CPI has shown signs of stabilization [19]. - In the US, the November inflation data met expectations, with the CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year [19]. - The Euro has depreciated significantly due to interest rate cuts and economic weakness, while the Yen's depreciation is linked to reduced expectations for a December rate hike [18][19]. 3. Performance of Chinese Assets Globally - Chinese stocks have outperformed major indices, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.53% and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 2.07% [20]. - The A-share market has shown volatility but performed relatively well compared to other major economies [20].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [2] Core Views - Hongguo Short Drama has emerged as a leader in the short drama market, leveraging its scale advantage and the Douyin ecosystem [2] - The domestic short drama industry has entered a phase of clear competition after initial business model innovation and rapid growth [2] - The market size of China's online micro-short dramas is expected to reach 504 billion yuan in 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase [2] - IAA (In-App Advertisement) short dramas are becoming the main driver of market growth, with IAP (In-App Purchase) short dramas reaching their peak [2] - Hongguo Short Drama's MAU exceeded 140 million and DAU exceeded 40 million in November 2024, far ahead of other short drama apps [2] Summary by Sections 1. Hongguo Short Drama's Rise - Hongguo Short Drama has taken the lead in the short drama market, with its MAU and DAU significantly surpassing competitors [2][18] - The app's "free + ads" model has strong scalability, and it has topped the Dataeye Short Drama Heat List since June 2024 [2] - Hongguo has partnered with over 600 short drama institutions and has more than 15,000 short dramas on its platform [2] 2. Short Drama Market Competition - The short drama market has shifted from IAP to IAA models, with IAA expected to dominate the market share [2][27] - The IAA model has higher user acceptance due to the weak content payment awareness among Chinese netizens [27] - The free short drama market is expected to be highly concentrated, with Hongguo leading the way [27][33] 3. Hongguo's Competitive Advantages - Hongguo benefits from the scale effect of the free short drama track and the Douyin ecosystem [44] - It has a strong content and channel advantage, with access to a vast library of IPs from Tomato Novel [44] - The integration with Douyin's advertising platform, Ocean Engine, provides Hongguo with efficient marketing resources [44] 4. Collaboration and Industry Empowerment - Hongguo has established partnerships with over 600 short drama institutions, providing a content budget of over 200 million yuan monthly [66] - The platform has a strong focus on female-oriented content, with 60 detailed tags to help users find preferred dramas [66] - Hongguo's revenue-sharing model benefits copyright holders, with total revenue sharing exceeding 250 million yuan in October 2024 [73] 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors should focus on professional media and film institutions that have partnered with Hongguo, as they are likely to benefit from the growth of the short drama business [85] - Companies like China Literature and Huace Film have already released multiple high-quality short dramas on Hongguo's platform [85] - Hongguo has also collaborated with major media groups like Mango TV, Xinhua News Agency, and Zhejiang TV [85]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous rise in UCO prices, benefiting the profitability of kitchen waste and solid waste companies. As of December 13, the industrial-grade mixed oil port price reached 6700-6800 CNY/ton, a significant increase from 6100 CNY/ton before the tax rebate cancellation [12] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as 聚光科技 (Juguang Technology), 中再资环 (China Recycled Resources), 瀚蓝环境 (Hanlan Environment), 金科环境 (Jinke Environment), 大地海洋 (Dadi Ocean), 中金环境 (Zhongjin Environment), 武汉控股 (Wuhan Holdings), and 朗坤环境 (Langkun Environment) [11] - Recent favorable developments in the environmental sector include 粤海投资 (Yuehai Investment) divesting its real estate business and 威派格 (Weipai Ge) accelerating AI applications in water management [12] - The report highlights the role of state-owned enterprises in debt restructuring and emphasizes the potential for significant transformations through mergers, acquisitions, and asset securitization [12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Review - The Central Economic Work Conference reiterated the importance of promoting carbon reduction and green growth, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive green transformation in the economy [33] Section 2: Key Company Announcements - Recent announcements from companies like 粤海投资 (Yuehai Investment) and 军信股份 (Junxin Co.) indicate strategic shifts towards core water management operations and AI-driven solutions in water usage [24][12] Section 3: Market Trends - The report notes that the environmental sector's valuation is at historical lows since 2015, presenting potential opportunities for bottom reversal [26] Section 4: Company Focus - The report identifies three categories of companies to watch: those with significant state-owned enterprise backing, those facing performance declines with strong reform demands, and those with valuable assets that could be injected into the company [34] Section 5: Dividend Potential - The report highlights over 50 companies with strong dividend potential, with average dividend yields of 2.88% for A-shares and 4.92% for H-shares in 2023, indicating a focus on high-dividend sectors like solid waste and water management [38]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 60.09 CNY per share [6] Core Views - The company focuses on original innovation in small molecule drugs, particularly in the oncology field, with 6 globally competitive product pipelines and 2 commercialized products [3] - Sunvozertinib (舒沃替尼) is the first domestically developed drug for EGFR Exon20ins mutation NSCLC, filling a treatment gap and has submitted an NDA to the FDA [4] - Golvatinib (戈利昔替尼) is the first JAK1 inhibitor approved for R/R PTCL, offering advantages in efficacy and safety [4] - Early-stage pipelines like DZD8586 (BTK/LYN inhibitor) and DZD2269 (A2aR antagonist) show potential for overcoming drug resistance and providing new treatment options [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 540 million CNY in 2024 to 1.684 billion CNY in 2026, driven by core product sales [5] - EPS is projected to improve from -2.19 CNY in 2024 to -0.50 CNY in 2026 [5] Company Overview - The company specializes in small molecule drug R&D, with a focus on oncology and immunology, and has a strong management team with extensive industry experience [44][45] - It has established 6 globally competitive product pipelines, with 2 products already commercialized [44] Product Pipeline - Sunvozertinib: Approved in China for EGFR Exon20ins mutation NSCLC, with global Phase III trials ongoing [4][44] - Golvatinib: Approved in China for R/R PTCL, with potential for first-line maintenance therapy [4][96] - DZD8586: A novel BTK/LYN inhibitor with potential to overcome BTK resistance, currently in Phase I/II trials [5][52] - DZD2269: A selective A2aR antagonist in Phase I trials for prostate cancer [5] - DZD1516: A HER2 inhibitor with blood-brain barrier penetration, effective for heavily pretreated HER2+ breast cancer [5] Market and Industry Analysis - EGFR Exon20ins mutation NSCLC represents a significant unmet clinical need, with Sunvozertinib being the first domestically developed drug targeting this mutation [57][58] - PTCL has a poor prognosis, and Golvatinib is the only JAK1 inhibitor approved for this indication, offering a new treatment option [96] - BTK inhibitors have revolutionized the treatment of B-cell lymphomas, but resistance remains a challenge, which DZD8586 aims to address [105][106]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report indicates that fiscal spending and expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts are driving year-end liquidity easing [41] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 184.4 billion CNY through reverse repos this week, with a focus on maintaining liquidity amid upcoming large MLF maturities [41][42] - Government bond net payments are expected to decrease significantly in the upcoming period, indicating a shift towards increased fiscal spending [41][42] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Spending and Reserve Requirement Ratio Expectations - The central bank's operations included 538.5 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 184.4 billion CNY [41] - Government bond net payments were 749.9 billion CNY this period, with expectations of a decline to approximately -34.0 billion CNY next period [41][42] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Interest Rates - The report notes changes in funding rates, with DR001, DR007, DR014, DR021, and DR1M showing variations of -7.7bp, +2.6bp, +6.4bp, +17.4bp, and +12.3bp respectively [43] - The report highlights a downward trend in government bond yields, influenced by a recent political bureau meeting advocating for more proactive fiscal policies [45] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) totaled 954.4 billion CNY, with a net financing scale of 587.0 billion CNY [44] - The average yield on NCDs showed mixed results, with 1M rates increasing by 2.1bp while longer-term rates decreased [44] - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit reached 18.71 trillion CNY, with an average remaining maturity of 157 days [48]

Industry Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to the Defense and Military Industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The industry is expected to see accelerated improvement as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" is formulated, with a focus on the aviation sector [18] - The shipbuilding sector is expected to maintain steady growth, with significant orders such as a 17 billion RMB contract for LNG dual-fuel container ships [19] - Satellite and rocket development is progressing rapidly, with multiple launches planned for late 2024 and early 2025, including the Long March 8A and Long March 5B rockets [19] - The report highlights four key investment strategies for 2025, focusing on ROE growth, turnaround opportunities, emerging trends, and state-owned enterprise reforms [20] Company Summaries Aero Engine Corporation (航发动力) - Expected to benefit from high-end aviation equipment production and long-term maintenance demand, with projected revenue of 497.62 billion RMB in 2024 [21] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2025 is 15.22 billion RMB and 19.29 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 71X [21] AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry (中航西飞) - A major manufacturer of military and civilian aircraft, with expected revenue growth of 11.9% in 2024 [24] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 10.21 billion RMB, 12.83 billion RMB, and 15.83 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 72X [24] AVIC Heavy Machinery (中航重机) - Expected to benefit from the aviation equipment supply chain and global maintenance markets, with a projected profit target of 18.6 billion RMB in 2024 [25] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 15.76 billion RMB, 19.01 billion RMB, and 23.48 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 19X [25] Raytron Technology (睿创微纳) - A leader in non-cooled infrared technology, with significant growth potential in military and civilian applications [27] - Forecasted net profit for 2024 is 6.52 billion RMB, with a 2024 PE ratio of 33X [27] Guorui Technology (国睿科技) - Focused on radar and low-altitude economy, with significant contracts in meteorological and low-altitude surveillance projects [28] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2025 is 6.94 billion RMB and 9.89 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 36X [28] Guangwei Composites (光威复材) - A key supplier in the aerospace carbon fiber market, with significant growth potential in satellite and missile applications [29] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 9.30 billion RMB, 12.84 billion RMB, and 15.84 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 30X [29] China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (中国动力) - Expected to benefit from the shipbuilding cycle and engine technology advancements, with significant growth in maintenance and repair markets [31] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 11.88 billion RMB, 16.90 billion RMB, and 25.67 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 47X [31] AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (中航沈飞) - A leading manufacturer of fighter jets, with significant growth potential in military trade and maintenance markets [32] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 37.59 billion RMB, 46.69 billion RMB, and 57.42 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 36X [32] AVIC Optoelectronics (中航光电) - A leader in military connectors, with significant growth potential in aerospace, shipbuilding, and new energy sectors [33] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 36.97 billion RMB, 44.88 billion RMB, and 53.70 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 22X [33] Unigroup Guoxin (紫光国微) - A leader in integrated circuits, with significant growth potential in military and civilian applications [35] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 28.07 billion RMB, 35.00 billion RMB, and 41.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 39X [35] Zhongke Xingtu (中科星图) - Focused on the digital earth and low-altitude economy, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [36] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 4.86 billion RMB, 6.83 billion RMB, and 9.30 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 64X [36] CETC 712 (七一二) - A leader in military wireless communication, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [38] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.75 billion RMB, 4.10 billion RMB, and 5.26 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 89X [38] Haige Communications (海格通信) - A leader in military communication and navigation, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [39] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 4.62 billion RMB, 9.20 billion RMB, and 12.92 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 69X [39]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Buy [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the overall pig output of listed companies in November 2024 showed a slight increase, with an average weight increase of 3.8% month-on-month. The total output of commodity pigs reached 14.06 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [4][23][24]. - The average selling price for November was estimated at 16.68 CNY/kg, down 5.1% month-on-month but up 17.7% year-on-year [4][24]. - The report suggests that the industry is expected to maintain a moderate recovery in pig production capacity in the second half of 2024, with a prolonged period of industry prosperity anticipated. Current valuations in the sector are at historical lows, recommending major breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, while also paying attention to New Hope and Zhengbang Technology for potential operational reversals [4][25]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Weekly Insights - The report discusses the November output data from major pig farming companies, indicating a slight increase in output and average weight [4][23]. - The total output of commodity pigs for November was 14.06 million heads, with a year-to-date increase of 5.6% for listed companies [4][24]. Section 2: Industry Tracking - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 3 percentage points, with the feed, animal health, and aquaculture sectors showing the highest gains [42]. Section 3: Agricultural Product Price Tracking - As of December 13, the national average price for lean pigs was 15.7 CNY/kg, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week but an increase of 14.4% year-on-year [38][46]. - The average price for piglets was 447.2 CNY/head, down 5.6% week-on-week [38][53]. - The report also notes that chicken prices remained stable, with the average price for broilers at 3.8 CNY/jin [38][58]. Section 4: Company Performance - Specific companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope reported varying output and sales figures, with some experiencing significant year-on-year growth while others faced declines [24][41]. - For instance, Muyuan Foods reported an output of 638.3 thousand heads in November, with a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [37]. Section 5: Price Trends - The report tracks price trends for various agricultural products, indicating fluctuations in prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat, with corn prices at 2147 CNY/ton, down 0.4% week-on-week [38][46]. - The report also highlights the profitability of self-breeding versus purchased piglets, with self-breeding yielding a profit of 133 CNY/head [46][57].

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-12-15 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 Xm l [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产及物管行业 24 年第 50 周周报 认购网签仍维持较高水平，中央稳楼市表态提级 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 本周政策情况：持续用力推动止跌回稳，提振房地产市场预期。中央方 面，政治局召开会议，强调要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，要积极稳妥化解房地产风险，一视同仁满足不同所有制房地产 企业的合理融资需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。地方政策方面， 长沙收购 436 套存量房作保障房，昆明提出进一步盘活存量，提升空 间利用效率，促进土地集约复合利用，广西收购商品房作保障房，广 西、襄阳、运城出台房票安置相关政策。 本周基本面情况：新房成交环比有下降，二手成交热度维持高位。据 Wind 及克尔瑞，本周 50 城新房成交面积 541.2 万方，环比下降 2.5%， 同比上升 17.2%。二手房方面，本周 13 城 ...