• • • • 2025 • IMO 2013 EEDI 2023 EEXI/CII • EEXI CII 请参阅附注免责声明 2 请参阅附注免责声明 3 VLCC VLCC 2024 2 2025 5 • 请参阅附注免责声明 1 • • -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E VLCC船队增减（艘） 请参阅附注免责声明 4 已交付 待交付 已拆解 • 在手订单：过去原油轮三年下单有限，目前原油轮在手订单占比10.3%，VLCC在手订单占比9.3%，仍处过去二十年相对低位 • 原油轮新增：仅考虑目前在手订单如期交付，未考虑未来新签订单及船舶拆解，预计2025-27年增速将分别为1.4%、3.6%、4.1% • VLCC新增：仅考虑目前在手订单如期交付，未考虑未来新签订单及船舶拆解，预计2025-27年增速将分别为0.4%、3.2%、4.3% 1 2 2024-25 2026 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for high-end diesel generators is experiencing significant growth due to the ongoing boom in domestic AIDC and data center construction. High-level data centers require robust backup power systems, with diesel generators being the most common choice. The current market for high-power diesel generators is dominated by foreign companies, particularly in the engine component, which is crucial for performance. Despite the increasing orders from overseas manufacturers, their expansion is hampered by the complex supply chain specific to the engine industry. The current supply-demand imbalance is expected to lead to price increases, creating opportunities for domestic brands [1][2] - The market for diesel generators used in data centers is projected to reach 9.1 billion yuan by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 50%. By 2028, the market is expected to expand to 18.1 billion yuan, with a three-year CAGR of 26% [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The high-power diesel generator market is currently experiencing a supply-demand gap, with domestic brands poised for strategic development opportunities. The primary power range for AIDC diesel generators is typically between 1.8-2MW, predominantly sourced from large foreign enterprises. Leading global players include Cummins, MTU, Caterpillar, and Mitsubishi, while domestic OEMs include KOTAI Power, Weichai Heavy Machinery, Haotai Technology, and Sumida. Engine manufacturers include Weichai Power and Yuchai International. The surge in data center demand is driving revenue and profit growth for overseas firms like Cummins, but their expansion is limited by supply chain complexities [2] Section 2: Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include the acceleration of data center construction and anticipated price increases for diesel generator products [3]

| | | [table_Header] 耐用消费品 行业专题 2025.02.18 非洲卫生用品龙头，正式启动港股 IPO 作者 ——乐舒适招股书梳理报告 本报告导读 公司是非洲卫生用品龙头，正式启动港股 IPO，新兴国家卫生用品行业景气度较高，公司 位居行业龙头，看好公司业绩持续高增。 摘要： | [Table_Authors] | 刘佳昆(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38038184 | | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040004 | | | 曹冬青(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 0755-23976666 | | | caodongqing026730@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080001 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 耐用消费品《智能眼镜投融资火热，产业景气度 向上》2025.02.06 耐用消费品《需求延续弱复苏，品牌与渠道为胜 负手》2024.09.02 耐用消费品《若油价下行，轻工石油链标的有望 受益》2024.08.25 耐用消 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The transition to "AI+ home appliances" is highlighted, emphasizing that AI integration leads to substantial upgrades in product functionality beyond mere connectivity [1]. - AI empowers products by creating three core advantages: 1) Traditional appliances can evolve into new categories with multiple functions (e.g., AI glasses); 2) AI enables appliances to think, decide, and execute tasks autonomously, reducing the need for human intervention; 3) Appliances transition from "passive response" to "active service," acting as a "butler" for users [1]. - AI also enhances channel efficiency, promoting a trend towards flatter organizational structures and improving overall management efficiency. Additionally, AI-driven creative marketing and consumer insights are expected to sustain the popularity of platforms like WeChat [1]. Summary by Sections - **AI Empowerment of Products**: The report discusses how AI allows traditional home appliances to break existing boundaries and develop into innovative product categories, while also enabling them to operate independently without human input [1]. - **AI Empowerment of Channels**: The report notes that AI is reshaping distribution channels, leading to increased operational efficiency and enhanced marketing strategies, particularly through consumer insights [1].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a preference for growth stocks while increasing allocation in stable categories such as beer, condiments, and beverages [1] Core Insights - The white liquor sector is expected to warm up with valuation recovery anticipated. The initial recovery is expected in the real estate liquor segment, followed by high-end and then sub-high-end liquor, with the latter having a longer recovery cycle. The industry is entering a downward phase starting Q2 2024, with H1 2025 expected to see bottom fluctuations, and the inventory digestion progress in 2025 will depend on the growth targets of liquor companies [1] - The beer sector is expected to recover, while the beverage category shows structural prosperity. Beer performance is showing slight improvement, and the beverage category remains stable. Low-price/high-frequency consumption beverages are benefiting significantly from current demand trends, with regional brands outperforming national brands in the beer sector. The beer segment is expected to recover under low expectations for 2025, with passive upgrade trends and regional brand advantages continuing [1] - The mass consumer goods sector shows marginal improvement with structural differentiation. During the Spring Festival, snack sales performed best, condiments achieved a good start, while dairy products and frozen foods remained weak. As costs decrease, low-cost and low-price trends are emerging, highlighting the advantages of high cost-performance products. The focus is on growth sectors like snacks, along with adjusted condiments, catering supply chains, and undervalued, high-dividend stocks [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term focus on the valuation recovery opportunities of leading downstream chemical enterprises [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of dividends and share buybacks, indicating that state-owned enterprises with high dividend yields possess investment value. It anticipates an improvement in cyclical profitability in the second half of 2025, with profits shifting from upstream to downstream sectors, leading to a potential recovery in the downstream industry's prosperity. Leading chemical enterprises with cost competitiveness are expected to experience valuation recovery [1] - The report highlights the strong reality and weak expectations of crude oil, noting that Brent crude oil net long positions were at a high as of January 28. Global crude oil inventories are at historically low levels, and sanctions have led to a short-term supply reduction, resulting in a rebound in oil product profits. However, uncertainties arise from Trump's potential push for negotiations regarding Russia and Ukraine, as well as his policies in the Middle East and efforts to lower energy prices [2] - The report discusses the impact of Trump's statements and policies on the energy sector, indicating that his social media comments have historically caused price fluctuations in the energy market. The expressions of government officials regarding geopolitical and energy sector views have also contributed to these price changes [3] - The actual effects of Trump's policies on the energy sector are deemed crucial, with the potential for significant inventory accumulation in 2025 if sanctions are not considered. The execution of sanctions will influence the annual balance sheet expectations, with supply fluctuations expected to be substantial compared to demand [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the pet industry, highlighting the growth potential driven by increasing pet ownership among young people [1]. Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing rapid growth due to both an increase in the number of pets and a rise in per-pet spending, reflecting a trend towards "humanization" of pet care [1]. - Domestic brands are innovating in product formulation and materials, effectively responding to pet owners' needs and gaining market share against foreign brands in the pet food sector [1]. - There is a growing awareness among pet owners regarding scientific pet care, with a focus on addressing health issues as a core challenge for pet food products [1].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company or industry Core Insights - The IPO market is undergoing reforms aimed at enhancing quality, with multiple regulatory changes expected to improve listing standards and investor management [1] - The IPO issuance pace in 2024 is projected to be at a historically low level, with a slight recovery anticipated in Q3 following new policies, resulting in 100 new A-share listings and a total fundraising of 67.353 billion [1] - The acceptance of the first unprofitable company on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board since last year signals a positive trend for high-tech enterprises seeking funding, with expectations for a gradual recovery in the review pace [2] - A rebound in new stock issuance is anticipated for 2025, with a neutral forecast suggesting a 5 billion scale A-class account could see an annual incremental return of approximately 3.39%, with total fundraising expected around 114 billion [2] Summary by Sections - **Regulatory Changes**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission is revising multiple regulations to enhance the IPO market, including stricter listing standards and improved delisting requirements [1] - **2024 IPO Market Outlook**: The overall IPO issuance is expected to be slow, with specific figures indicating A/B class accounts could yield returns of 1.79% and 1.45% respectively [1] - **2025 Forecast**: The report predicts a recovery in the issuance pace, estimating 80 to 180 new listings and a total fundraising of approximately 114 billion, with expected first-day average gains for new stocks across different boards [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, highlighting the acceleration of AI deployment and the decreasing costs of AI models as key catalysts for growth [4]. Core Insights - Tencent has integrated DeepSeek R1 into its services, enabling AI search capabilities within WeChat, which is currently in a gray testing phase. This integration aims to enhance knowledge acquisition and deep thinking for users [1]. - The ima product, developed by Tencent, offers a cloud-based solution for personal knowledge management, allowing users to collect, interpret, and generate content efficiently. It has recently incorporated the DeepSeek-R1 model to enhance its functionality [2]. - The demand for intelligent work tools is rapidly increasing, with ima.copilot emerging as a strong alternative to Google NotebookLM. Its comprehensive features support knowledge acquisition, content generation, and personalized knowledge management across multiple platforms [3]. Summary by Sections - **AI Integration**: Tencent's DeepSeek R1 is now part of WeChat, enhancing user experience through AI-driven search capabilities [1]. - **Product Development**: The ima platform provides a robust solution for managing fragmented knowledge, integrating AI capabilities for various tasks [2]. - **Market Demand**: The rise in demand for intelligent tools positions ima as a competitive product, with potential for further optimization based on user feedback [3]. - **Catalysts for Growth**: The report identifies the continuous decrease in AI model costs and the acceleration of AI deployment as significant growth drivers for the industry [4].

债 券 研 究 从 1 月社融和货政报告看宽货币的节奏 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) ——流动性周度跟踪 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao026130@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen028694@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 板块补涨行情延续 2025.02.17 新旧生产力转换显成效与债市"资产荒"或并存 2025.02.16 关注 REITs 行情独立性 2025.02.11 存单倒挂主因在需求侧，还将持续修复 2025.02.11 从各省政府工作报告看防风险基调 2025.02.10 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 市 场 本报告导读： 1 月新增社融和贷款的读数均强，银行负债压力并未在信贷供给侧有显著体现。在 实体融资供强需弱的背景下，短期内落地货币宽松的必要性或并不 ...