资讯汇总 [table_Header]2025.02.18 【ESG 周报】ESG 指数涨幅收窄，绿色债券稳步发行 产业研究中心 摘要： | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 赵子健(分析师) | | | 021-38032292 | | | zhaozijian@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520060003 | | | 王佳(分析师) | | | 010-83939781 | | | wangjia025750@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524010001 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 【科技周报】科学家开发单晶超晶格制备新策略 2025.02.15 【上海产经观察】上海优化营商环境 8.0 行动方 案发布 2025.02.12 【产业观察】中国证监会发布《关于资本市场做 好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》 2025.02.12 【双碳周报】全国碳市场碳排放额累计成交量大 幅下降 2025.02.12 【ESG 产业观察】资本市场做好金融"五篇大文 章"的实施意见发布，2024 年我国完成国土绿化 面积 ...

美将向印度出售 F-35 隐形战斗机，北约举行"坚定飞镖- 2025"军演 --国防军工行业周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | [table_Authors] 彭磊(分析师) | 宋博(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939829 | [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | songbo027618@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 S0880518100003 | S0880522120007 | | 本报告导读： 军工板块下跌，美将向印度出售 F-35 隐形战斗机。北约举行"坚定飞镖-2025"军演， 大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 军工《战略重组增强核心功能，国企改革有望持 续深化》2025.02.14 军工《新修订的装备科研条例有望推动行业高质 量发展》2025.02.11 军工《万吨大驱实战化演练，北约各国军费或上 调》2025.02.11 军工《054B 首舰交接 ...

| | 国泰君安证券 | | --- | --- | | | GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES | | | 目 录 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 每日报告回放（2025-02-14 09:00——2025-02-17 15:00） 3 | | |  | 事件点评：《私人部门风险偏好抬升》2025-02-15 3 | | |  | 专题研究：《关税 的三种"极致"推演》2025-02-14 2.0 4 | | |  | 海外策略研究：《美股进入对风险回报要求更高环境中》2025-02-16 5 | | |  | A 股策略观察：《被动资金流出扩大，两融余额环比下降》2025-02-16 6 | | |  | A 股策略专题：《DeepSeek 本地化部署推升 AI 资本开支需求》2025-02-16 7 | | |  | A 股策略周报：《反弹之后，股指料将横盘震荡》2025-02-16 8 | | |  | 海外策略研究：《港股重视定价权的重塑》2025-02-16 9 | | |  | 行业事件快评：机器人《新时达发布定增预案，海尔集团或入主成为实控人 ...

俄乌和谈启动缓解地缘政治风险担忧 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) ——大类资产配置周度点评（20250216） 本报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们维持对黄金的战术性超配观点，维 持对美债的战术性标配观点，维持对国债的战术性标配观点。 投资要点： | | wangziyi027313@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-38038293 S0880523050004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 恒生科技领涨，A 股成长风格信息比上行 2025.02.16 上周小市值风格占优，价量因子表现较好 2025.02.12 美国计划设立主权财富基金 2025.02.11 美债收益率曲线平坦化 2025.02.11 特朗普政策变化反复压制全球风险偏好 2025.02.09 资 产 配 置 主 动 资 产 配 置 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | 1. | 上周重大事项回顾 3 | | --- | --- | | | 特朗普与普京通话并同意就结束俄乌冲突进行谈判 1.1 3 | | | 1.2 ...

Meta 入局人形机器人，工程机械需求持续复苏 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 | | | ——机械行业周报 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) | 徐乔威(分析师) | 刘麒硕(研究助理) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976830 | 021-38676779 | 0755-23976666 | | | xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com | xuqiaowei023970@gtjas.com | liuqishuo028693@gtjas.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | | 登记编号S0880522120001 | S0880521020003 | S0880123070153 | 机械行业《新时达发布定增预案，海尔集团或入 | 本报告导读： 上周（2025/2/10-2025/2/14）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+0.23%。关注人形机器人等 领域科技创新，工 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific strategies [1]. Core Insights - The report tracks the performance of various quantitative asset allocation strategies, indicating that the domestic asset risk parity strategy achieved a return of 0.41% in January 2025, with the same return for the year to date [1][5]. - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a weak recovery in domestic demand, with a manufacturing PMI of 49.1% and a non-manufacturing PMI of 50.2% as of January 2025, indicating potential for growth [35][36]. - Inflation is projected to remain stable with a January CPI of 0.6% and a PPI of -1.8%, with expectations of a possible negative CPI in February [36]. Summary by Sections 1. Asset Performance Review - In January 2025, equity assets adjusted, with SHFE gold rising by 4.6%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index increasing by 2.54%. Conversely, the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices fell by 2.99% and 1.87%, respectively [7][8]. 2. Asset Correlation Tracking - The report highlights the importance of low correlation among assets for effective diversification. For January 2025, the correlation between the CSI 300 and the Nanhua Commodity Index was only 0.59, indicating potential for risk mitigation through diversification [10][12]. 3. Asset Allocation Strategy Tracking - The domestic asset BL strategy 1 recorded a return of 0.34% with a maximum drawdown of 0.39% and an annualized volatility of 0.48% since the beginning of 2025 [26][30]. - The domestic risk parity strategy achieved a return of 0.41% with a maximum drawdown of 0.12% and an annualized volatility of 0.22% [31]. - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy yielded a return of 0.38% with similar drawdown and volatility metrics as the risk parity strategy [38]. 4. Macroeconomic Factors - The report assigns macroeconomic scores based on growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity, with scores of 1, 0, -1, 0, 0, and 0, respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth and inflation [35][38].

linyidan030085@gtjas.com 021-38038436 请参阅附注免责声明 1 90 00 67% 2024 ( ) 7.5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 00后 90后 80后 70后 70前 2023 2024 请参阅附注免责声明 2 犬 猫 2024 ( ) 3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2025 150% 60% - 请参阅附注免责声明 3 70% 50% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 犬 猫 53% 2024 60% 5 40% 20pct 2024 68% 2024H1 8.66 61.2% 9.74pct 60% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0% 50% 100% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 线上占比 线下占比 线上增长率 线下增长率 | 品牌名称 | 品牌名称 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for cloud service providers due to Deepseek's reduction in hardware computing power demand, indicating a new growth momentum in the short term for local deployment in large enterprises and specific industries [1] Core Insights - Deepseek aims to enhance unit computing efficiency by tenfold through algorithm optimization, significantly lowering model training and inference costs. The training cost for the 671B DeepSeek V3 is $5.576 million (approximately 40.7 million RMB), which is only 7% of Llama 3's cost, while OpenAI's ChatGPT-4o training costs range from $78 million to $100 million, requiring thousands of NVIDIA H100 chips. In contrast, DeepSeek V3 utilizes the NVIDIA H800, a specialized AI chip with reduced performance [1] - The technological revolution of Deepseek introduces a new paradigm in large model development, employing innovative architectures like MoE and MLA for efficient inference and cost-effective training. The dynamic sparse expert network design allows the model to utilize less than 4% of neural network parameters during inference, and the FP8 low-precision training framework reduces energy consumption by 80% while maintaining model stability [2] - Open-source models like DeepSeek are expected to play a crucial role in the AI era, similar to how Android transformed the mobile internet. This will reshape the industry ecosystem, accelerating the development of upper-layer applications and unifying lower-layer systems, thereby enhancing collaboration across software, hardware, and supply chains [3] Summary by Sections - **Investment Outlook**: The report highlights the potential for local domestic inference computing to explode, alongside the expansion of new foundational software like vector databases [1] - **Technological Innovations**: Deepseek's introduction of reinforcement learning-driven paradigms and self-evolving training mechanisms significantly reduces the data annotation requirements for efficient training, showcasing a systematic disruption of the "computing power arms race" [2] - **Market Impact**: By reducing reliance on high-end imported chips, Deepseek provides a viable technological path for domestic enterprises, boosting confidence in the development of self-researched computing power chips [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - A new perspective on assessing physical volume rhythm through the industry chain balance sheet has been established, which helps explain and predict the rhythm of physical volume demand, indicating a potential stabilization point in year-on-year physical volume by the second half of 2025 [1][2] - The construction industry has not yet shown signs of a right-side balance sheet contraction point as of Q3 2024, but it is reasonable to infer that the debt levels are near stabilization, with major enterprises' debt ratios recovering to around 75%, suggesting that key behavioral change points in the industry are approaching [2] - The demand is highly sensitive to funding, with a focus on downstream capital injection being crucial for future demand elasticity, particularly in infrastructure financing and real estate sales [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry is transitioning to a balance sheet contraction model, with real estate enterprises leading this trend since 2021, which has been a primary factor in the decline of physical volume in 2022-2023 [1] - Infrastructure entities are expected to start their balance sheet contraction in 2024, which will significantly impact physical volume [1] Financial Performance - The construction materials sector is anticipated to show a favorable base effect in revenue starting from Q3 2024, with leading companies in the sector expected to demonstrate improved financial performance post-2025H2 due to industry optimization and competitive advantages [3] Future Outlook - The key inflection point for the current cycle of physical volume decline is projected to occur in the second half of 2025, with potential early signs observable from the first half of 2025 [2]

核能周报|欧洲商业核能联盟成立 摘要: 产业政策及动态 产业研究中心 | ર્ | 陈磊(分析师) | | --- | --- | | ల | 021-38038037 | | ಡಿ | chenlei022459@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060001 | | ર્ | 王浩(分析师) | | 8 | 0755-23976068 | | ಶಿ | wanghao013539@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513090004 | 具备颁发建造许可证的条件。(来源:生态环境部) 鲍雁辛(分析师) 0755-23976830 baoyanxin@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880513070005 在期回顾 欣界能源获海目星、亿航智能增资,三方持续深 化产业链合作 -- 低空产业跟踪 03 期 2025.02.16 【AI产业跟踪】李飞飞团队创新的极简测试拓展 方法,极低成本构建比肩 ol-preview 的推理模型 s1-32B 2025.02.13 【智能车产业跟踪】小鹏 MONA M03 Max 版将 于二李度交付,文远知行发布无人物流车 2025 ...