Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, with the main brands experiencing marginal increases in table turnover rates compared to the previous quarter, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the table turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1 for Tai Er, 2.6 for Song Hotpot, and 2.6 for Jiu Mao Jiu, reflecting year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day respectively. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - The average customer spending per visit was 72, 100, and 56 yuan for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [8][3]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8][3]. Customer Experience Focus - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new initiatives and a "Fresh" store model in March 2025 to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, aiming to increase customer loyalty through various promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.1, 0.15, and 0.24 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2026 [5][16].

Key Points - The US Department of Commerce has initiated a Section 232 investigation into semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [3] - Several large global pension funds have paused purchases of US assets [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that interest rate cuts may occur in the second half of this year if tariffs remain low [3] - Japan's population has decreased by 898,000 compared to the same period last year, marking 14 consecutive years of decline [3] - Macau will provide an annual subsidy of 18,000 patacas for infants [3] - OPEC has significantly revised down its oil demand forecast for the next two years [3] - OpenAI has released GPT-4.1, which outperforms GPT-4 in all aspects [3] - China's exports in March increased by 12.4% year-on-year when measured in US dollars [3] - Pork prices have dropped to a new low not seen in over a year [3] Economic Data - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 11.29 basis points to 3.8429% [2] - The 5-year US Treasury yield decreased by 14.61 basis points to 4.0119% [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 11.56 basis points to 4.372% [2] - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1274.00, up 0.39% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 16831.48, up 0.64% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40524.79, up 0.78% [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 5405.97, up 0.79% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21417.40, up 2.40% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3262.81, up 0.76% [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The essential consumption sector shows resilience against tariff disruptions, supported by policy initiatives and a strong demand characteristic [1] - In March 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78%, while the essential consumption sector outperformed with a 6.99% increase, exceeding the index by 6.21 percentage points [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the valuation of the Hong Kong essential consumption sector remained at 18.6 times PE (TTM) and 2.26 times PB (LF) [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The snack industry led the gains in March, primarily driven by the performance of brands like Wei Long, while the liquor and dining sectors lagged behind [1] - The essential food and beverage sector, characterized by its necessity, is less affected by tariff policies, benefiting from national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1] - Companies heavily reliant on imported raw materials may face rising costs due to tariff impacts [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on defensive high-dividend stocks and industry leaders with clear performance improvement trends, indicating a positive investment outlook for the essential consumer sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The essential consumer sector has shown resilience against tariff disruptions, supported by government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand. Companies heavily reliant on imported raw materials may face rising costs [5]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78% in March 2025, while the essential consumer sector outperformed with a 6.99% increase, indicating strong market performance [6][9]. - The report highlights significant monthly stock performance variations, with notable gains in companies like Wei Long (up 57.2%) and Gu Ming (up 44.2%), while others like Nayuki's Tea faced substantial declines (down 50.5%) [9][10]. Monthly Market Performance - The essential consumer sector maintained a valuation of 18.6x PE (TTM) and 2.26x PB (LF) as of March 31, 2025, reflecting stable valuation levels [6][7]. - The snack industry led the sector's performance in March, primarily driven by Wei Long's strong sales, while the liquor and dining sectors lagged [6][9]. Key Industry Data Pork Farming and Meat Products - As of March 31, 2025, the national price for external three-way crossbred pigs was 14.7 CNY/kg, down 3.3% year-on-year, with self-breeding profits at 51.83 CNY/head and losses of 27.13 CNY/head for purchased piglets [11]. Beer and Soft Drinks - In January-February 2025, beer production from large-scale enterprises was 5.261 million kiloliters, down 4.9% year-on-year. The soft drink sector, however, saw a 3.8% increase in production to 26.847 million tons, benefiting from strong travel demand and innovative market dynamics [14][15]. Dairy Products - Dairy production in January-February 2025 was 454,500 tons, down 6.3% year-on-year. The average price of fresh milk was 3.08 CNY/kg, with expectations for stabilization in raw milk prices in the second half of the year [16][25]. Cost Environment - Key agricultural product prices showed mixed trends, with barley averaging 251.1 USD/ton (down 1.4% month-on-month) and corn at 2,269.4 CNY/ton (up 1.8% month-on-month) as of early April 2025 [28][29].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all major indices rise as of April 9, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.68% to close at 20264.49 points. Large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks rose by 0.59%, 2.07%, and 1.68% respectively [2] - The China Enterprises Index and Technology Index experienced increases of 1.78% and 2.64% respectively, while the energy sector showed weaker performance with declines of -1.17% and -1.45% for the Composite Industry Index [2] - In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3186.81 points, up 1.31%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 1823.61 points, up 1.77% [2] U.S. Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher as of April 9, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 7.87% to 40608.45 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 9.52% to 5456.9 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 12.16% to 17124.97 points [3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a significant increase of 18.73%, closing at 4230.45 points [3] Recent Bond Issuance - On April 9, three offshore bonds were issued in the Chinese market. Hefei Investment Group plans to issue a 3-year senior bond in USD with an initial guidance price of around 5.3% [5] - Chongqing Nan'an Urban Construction Group intends to issue a 3-year senior unsecured bond in USD with an initial guidance price of around 5.5% [5] - Chengdu Xingjin Construction Investment Group is set to issue a 3-year senior unsecured bond in RMB with an initial guidance price of around 4% [5] Strong Performing Stocks - Notable strong performers include China Feihe (2-day increase of 20.83% to a closing price of 6.44), Youran Dairy (2-day increase of 19.34% to a closing price of 2.53), and Jinxin Fertility (2-day increase of 16.13% to a closing price of 3.24) [6] - Other significant gainers include Xiaomi Group (2-day increase of 14.95% to a closing price of 41.90) and SMIC (2-day increase of 14.72% to a closing price of 43.25) [6] Economic Data Summary - As of April 9, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 17124.97 points, up 12.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3186.81 points, up 1.31% [7] - The Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 40608.45 points, up 7.87%, and the Hang Seng Index closed at 20264.49 points, up 0.68% [7] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 4.62% to $65.72 per barrel, while the London gold price rose by 3.34% to $3082 per ounce [3][7]

请务必阅读免责条款 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 【近期研报】 ➢ 关税政策冲击全球市场，短期震荡中静待机会-互联网行业周报（03.31- 04.03） 我们认为美国关税政策扰动对全球贸易体系带来广泛冲击，同时也为资本市场投入了一颗重磅炸 弹，为全球经济带来巨大的不确定性。目前互联网板块下跌幅度依然要大于其他板块，尽管 AI 加速行业发展长期趋势未变，但市场对互联网企业短期盈利增速的预期下调，包括 AI 基础设施 成本攀升、研发投入加大等，而宏观经济疲软导致 AI 技术商业化进度缓慢，因此当前港股互联 网板块"挤泡沫"行情依然会持续。美股方面，由于高额对等关税的影响，美国经济或将长期面临 严峻的滞涨风险，加征关税后意味着企业部门和消费者将承受更高的成本，企业利润和居民可支 配收入受到挤压，市场预期制造业短期难以快速回流美国市场，因此将产生较长的政策阵痛期， 对美元资产带来深远的负面影响。目前建议关注阅文集团（772.HK）、浪潮数字企业 （596.HK）、赤子城科技（9911.HK），美股建议软消费相关标的，包括 Spotify （SPOT.US）、Chewy（CHWY.US）。 ➢ 农夫山泉（9633 ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日星期二 【新股资讯】 ➢ 映恩生物─B（9606.HK）IPO 申购指南：建议谨慎申购 公司专注于生物制药领域的研发，特别是抗体偶联药物（ADC）的研发。公司拥有多个核心技术 平台，包括专有的 DITAC 平台、DIBAC 平台。公司的研发管线包括 12 款自主研发的 ADC 候选 药物。核心的 2 个管线情况如下：1. DB-1303 处于临床后期的 HER2 ADC 候选药物。正在进行 两项注册性临床试验（一项全球试验及一项中国试验）及一项全球潜在注册研究。适应症： HER2 表达 EC（预计最早将于 2025 年向 FDA 申请加速批准）。特点：采用稳定的、可裂解连 接子及专有的基于拓扑异构酶抑制剂的有效载荷设计，旨在降低脱靶毒性和增强抗肿瘤活性。2. DB-1311 是 B7-H3 ADC 候选药物。进展：正在进行全球多区域临床试验。适应症：治疗晚期 SCLC、食管磷状细胞癌。 如需浏览报告全文，请联系您的客户经理。 【近期研报】 ➢ 港股延续调整，关税等外部不确定性或影响港股-股指期货周报（3.31-4.04） 上周港股延续调整行情，恒指一周下跌 2.46%，受清明假期影 ...

2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 【新股资讯】 ➢ 正力新能（3677.HK）IPO 申购指南：建议谨慎申购 公司于中国动力电池制造商中占有 1.8%的市场份额，排名第九。2021~2024 年，公司收入分别 为 14.99、32.9、41.6 和 51.3 亿元人民币，净利润分别为-4.02、-17.2、-5.9 和 0.91 亿元。公 司前期出现亏损主要是因为资本开始和 WM 客户事件。 【近期研报】 ➢ 4 月核心荐股-20250402 更新 【精选个股】 新调入个股 调出个股 ❖ 康龙化成（3759.HK） 如需浏览报告全文，请联系您的客户经理。 ➢ 宏观数据即时点评：美国政府宣布加征关税，最终实施力度或有减弱 通常来说，特朗普政府的关税政策通常最终实施力度会较宣布时有所减弱，因此本次关税政策虽 然来势汹汹，但最终实施力度仍然取决于谈判情况，特别是"对等关税"税率存有一定的博弈空 间。在对华关税方面，据乘联会披露的 2024 年出口数据，2024 年我国对美国汽车出口销量 11.6 万台，仅占 2024 年我国汽车出口总量的 1.8%，新增关税措施影响相对较小。而纺织服装 以及电子产品等其他产业相对 ...

上周港股股指期货价格延续回落趋势，至周末 25 年 4 月份恒指期货价格变 化-1.01%，科技指数期货涨幅-2.19%；当周恒指期货持仓变化 3.21%，基差 3.40 点；科技指数持仓量变化 7.73%；基差-16.47 点。美股股指期货方面， 上周三大股指期货价格下跌，至周末时道指期货价格变化-1.11%，标指和 纳指 100 期货价格变化分别为-1.67%和-2.52%。当周道指期货持仓变化- 1.44%，纳指期货持仓变化 4.15%；三大股指的期货中道指期货基差为 130.10 点较前周变化-214.55 点，纳指 100 期货基差 79.60 点，较前周变化 -137.18 点。 ➢ 市场外部环境： | 周报 | 港股调整，海外扰动或影响本周港股表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指期货 | 星期一 | 2025-04-01 | ➢ 市场回顾： 国内主要城市住房销售情况跟踪：上周二手房销售同比回升。 央行最新动向：美联储对降息的最新表态偏向谨慎，日本央行或继续加息。 部分国内外重要新闻：美国方面公布最新 PCE 和密歇根大学经济预测，特 朗普或在 4 月 2 日起加征关税 ...

Group 1: 康臣药业 (CKD) - The company achieved sales revenue of 1.996 billion RMB in the CKD sector, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% from 1.741 billion RMB in 2023, driven by its core products, Urine Detox and Yishen Huashi Granules [1] - Sales revenue from Yishen Huashi Granules grew by 27.2% year-on-year [1] - The company successfully covered 43,000 terminal medical institutions and 290,000 pharmacies [1] Group 2: 宜明昂科-B (IMM01) - The core product IMM01 is an innovative targeted CD47 molecule, one of only two companies globally to observe complete remission in clinical trials with good tolerability and safety [1] - IMM01 is the first SIRPα-Fc fusion protein to enter clinical stages in China, activating macrophages through a dual mechanism [1] - Currently, three indications are in Phase III clinical trials, placing the company at a global leading position in research and development [1] Group 3: 布鲁可 - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 941 million RMB, 1.381 billion RMB, and 1.991 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x, indicating strong market confidence in its profit growth [2] - Despite challenges in the global toy industry, the company successfully transitioned from a dark horse to an industry leader through a three-engine strategy of "IP + Channels + Globalization" [2] - The company’s product design and assembly experience are positioned in the global leading tier, with significant potential for market penetration in lower-tier markets and ongoing expansion of IP resources [2]