周报 一级市场发行量回落，二级市场小幅上涨 中资美元债 2026-01-26 星期一 一级市场发行量回落： 上周中资离岸债一级市场发行量回落，新发 6 只债券，规模共约 19.06 亿美 元。其中，港铁公司发行两笔合计 20 亿澳币绿色债券，为上周最大发行规模； 瑞安房地产发行 3 亿美元债券，息票率 9.75%，为上周定价最高的新发债券。 二级市场小幅上涨： 美债收益率震荡上行： 截至 1 月 23 日，2 年期美国国债收益率较上周上行 0.8bps，报 3.594%；10 年期国债收益率上行 0.23bps，报 4.2252%。 宏观要闻： 请务必阅读免责条款 上周中资美元债指数（Bloomberg Barclays）按周上涨 0.15%，新兴市场 美元债指数上涨 0.20%。投资级指数最新价报 203.1452，周涨幅 0.15%； 高收益指数最新价报 161.8156，周涨幅 0.18%。 上周中资美元债回报指数（Markit iBoxx）按周上涨 0.11%，投资级回报 指数最新价报 244.9461，周涨幅 0.1%；高收益回报指数最新价报 243.7889，周涨幅 0.21%。 美国 2025 ...

【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 【实时热点】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 1803.00 | 4.28 | 纳斯达克指数 | 23436.02 | 0.91 | | CME比特币期货 | 89320.00 | -1.01 | 道琼斯工业指数 | 49384.01 | 0.63 | | ICE布油 | 64.40 | -1.29 | 美元指数 | 98.28 | -0.50 | | 伦敦金现 | 4938.35 | 2.18 | 标普500 | 6913.35 | 0.55 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | 6.96 | -0.03 | 日经225 | 53688.89 | 1.73 | | 香港重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | ...

2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普：已就格陵兰岛问题形成了协议框架 有关关税不会 生效 美国最高法院或拒绝特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的请求 日本重启最大核电站 三部门：延续实施创新企业 CDR 试点阶段有关税收优惠政 策 央行：加快建设人民币跨境支付体系 住建部：有序搭建房地产开发、融资、销售等基础制度 2025 年我国社会消费品零售总额达 50.1 万亿元、增长 3.7% 广东：支持有序开放自动驾驶多场景道路测试 台积电 3 纳米产能满载至 2027 年 马斯克据悉希望在 7 月前让 SpaceX 上市 2 年期美债收益率跌 0.39 个基点报 3.584% 5 年期美债收益率跌 2.63 个基点报 3.822% 10 年期美债收益率跌 5.16 个基点报 4.241% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the average weekly new jobs added in the US, with the latest figure at 8,000, down from the previous value of 11,750 [4] - The report notes significant movements in US Treasury yields, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.68 basis points to 3.595%, the 5-year yield increasing by 5.10 basis points to 3.857%, and the 10-year yield up by 7.94 basis points to 4.293% [4] - The report indicates that Japan plans to invest over $330 billion in artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, reflecting a strategic focus on technology [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1,650.00, showing an increase of 5.30% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22,954.32, down by 2.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,488.59, decreasing by 1.76% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at $64.00, with a slight increase of 0.09% [5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 6.96, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,487.51, down by 0.29%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.16% to 5,683.44 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings, with a target price of HKD 16.43, indicating a potential upside of 37.5% from the current price of HKD 11.95 [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant profit increase for 2025, with an expected net profit of at least RMB 2.9 billion, representing a growth of over 128% compared to RMB 1.27 billion in 2024. This increase is attributed to higher sales of electric two-wheelers and optimized product structure [4][9]. - The new national standard for electric bicycles is set to stabilize the market post-Chinese New Year 2026, as the transition period for old standard products will end, leading to a gradual recovery in consumer purchasing willingness [5][10]. - Yadea is focusing on long-term growth through continuous investment in R&D and marketing, enhancing its product competitiveness and global marketing capabilities. In H1 2025, the company sold approximately 8.79 million electric scooters and bicycles, a year-on-year increase of about 37.8%, with a gross margin rising to 19.6% [6][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Yadea from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 35.78 billion (+26.7%), RMB 40.48 billion (+13.1%), and RMB 45.59 billion (+12.6%) respectively. The net profit forecasts are RMB 2.99 billion (+135%), RMB 3.25 billion (+8.8%), and RMB 3.55 billion (+9.3%) [12][8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 18.7% in 2025 to 19.8% in 2027, reflecting ongoing enhancements in product structure and sales volume [8][12].

Core Insights - The report highlights the rising tensions in US-EU relations due to Trump's strong statements regarding Greenland, which have led to increased risk aversion and subsequently pushed gold and silver prices to new highs [3] - The report notes that US pharmaceutical companies have threatened to halt new drug supplies to Europe unless prices are increased, indicating potential disruptions in the pharmaceutical supply chain [3] - The IMF has raised its economic forecasts for China and the global economy for 2026, projecting China's GDP to exceed 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1567.00, up by 2.28%, while the Nasdaq Index closed at 23515.39, down by 0.06% [4] - The price of ICE Brent crude oil was reported at $64.18, with a slight increase of 0.08%, and the London gold spot price reached $4671.72, up by 1.58% [4] - The exchange rate for USD to RMB (CFETS) was 6.96, reflecting a decrease of 0.08% [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26563.90, down by 1.05%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 9134.45, down by 0.94% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.00, with a slight increase of 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2700.08, up by 0.50% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds continued to recover last week, with 8 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $3.27 billion. The secondary market's high-yield segment outperformed the investment-grade segment. The yields of US Treasury bonds fluctuated upward. The performance of Chinese US dollar bonds varied across different indices, industries, and ratings [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds continued to recover last week, with 8 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $3.27 billion. Kuaishou issued two bonds totaling $1.5 billion, the largest issuance scale of the week. Taian Guotaiminan Investment Group issued a 300 million RMB bond with a coupon rate of 6.95%, the highest pricing of new bonds last week [1][6][10] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.02% week-on-week, and the emerging market US dollar bond index rose 0.09%. The investment-grade index closed at 202.8433, down 0.06% week-on-week, while the high-yield index closed at 161.5312, up 0.63% week-on-week. The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.05% week-on-week. The investment-grade return index closed at 244.7063, up 0.03% week-on-week, and the high-yield return index closed at 243.2798, up 0.23% week-on-week [4][9][15] 2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Industry Performance - In terms of industries, the communication and materials sectors led the gains, while the real estate and non-essential consumption sectors led the losses. The communication sector was mainly affected by the rising prices of companies such as Bilibili and 21Vianet, with yields down 53.3bps. The materials sector was mainly affected by the rising prices of companies such as Silvercorp Metals and Jingjiang Port Group, with yields down 25.6bps. The real estate sector was mainly affected by the falling prices of companies such as Times China Holdings and Sino-Ocean Group, with yields up 6.1Mbps. The non-essential consumption sector was mainly affected by the falling prices of companies such as NIO and First Real Estate Group, with yields up 44.6bps [18] 2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Rating Performance - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive rating, investment-grade names had mixed performance, with A-rated names' weekly yields up 1.3bps and BBB-rated names' weekly yields down 5.2bps. High-yield names mostly rose, with BB-rated names' yields down 9.9bps, DD+ to NR-rated names' yields down about 13.0bps, and unrated names' yields up 2.1Mbps [19] 2.4 Last Week's Bond Market Hot Events - R&F Properties failed to repay the principal and interest of "20 R&F Properties PPN001" totaling approximately 1.138 billion RMB on schedule and is working hard to raise funds. Sunac China Holdings' subsidiary is involved in a major lawsuit, which has a certain adverse impact on the company's production, operation, and solvency, and the company is actively negotiating solutions [20][21][22] 2.5 Last Week's Subject Rating Adjustments - Kuaishou's long-term issuer credit rating was rated A- by S&P, A3 by Moody's, and A- by Fitch, with a stable outlook. The rating reflects Kuaishou's position as one of China's leading social media platforms, its large user base, high user engagement, and strong monetization ability. Linyi Dongcheng Construction Investment Group's issuer rating was upgraded by United International, reflecting its increasing contribution to the industrial operation in Hedong District, Linyi City, and its expanding business scope [24][25] 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - Quotes of US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months are provided, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low, showing details such as maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon rate [26][28] 4. Macroeconomic Data Tracking - As of January 16, the yields of US Treasury bonds were as follows: 1-year (T1) at 3.5349%, up 3.80bps from last week; 2-year (T2) at 3.586%, up 5.39bps; 5-year (T5) at 3.8152%, up 6.53bps; 10-year (T10) at 4.2229%, up 5.76bps [31] 5. Macroeconomic News - In December 2025, the US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous value. Trump said he has no plan to remove Powell from office. US retail sales in November 2025 increased 0.6% month-on-month, the fastest growth since July 2025. The US White House announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors. Trump said countries doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff. US Republican lawmakers support strengthening the supervision of lawmakers' stock trading. In November 2025, Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China reduced its holdings. The Prime Minister of Japan announced the intention to dissolve the House of Representatives. The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges increased the margin ratio for margin trading. The central bank introduced a series of measures to support high-quality economic development. In 2025, China's aggregate financing increment was 35.6 trillion RMB, 3.34 trillion RMB more than the previous year. The policy of tax refund for home replacement was extended until the end of 2027 [5][32][46]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as suggested by Governor Bowman, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact market dynamics [4] - The report notes significant geopolitical tensions, including tariffs imposed by the EU on US goods and Canada's import of electric vehicles from China, which may affect trade relations and market sentiment [4] - Economic indicators show mixed performance across major indices, with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones experiencing slight declines, while the Baltic Dry Index and oil prices show positive movement [5] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 2.28% to 1567.00, indicating a rise in shipping costs [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23515.39, down by 0.06%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.17% to 49359.33 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 0.69% to 64.20, reflecting a slight increase in oil market activity [5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 6.97, showing a minor decrease of 0.01% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26844.96, down by 0.29%, indicating a slight decline in the Hong Kong market [5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.07 basis points to 3.564% [1] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.94 basis points to 3.768% [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 4.53 basis points to 4.171% [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1566.00, down 2.61% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23530.02, up 0.25% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49442.44, up 0.60% [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6944.47, up 0.26% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26923.62, down 0.28% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.60, down 0.33% [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points starting January 19 [3] - The total social financing scale for the year 2025 is projected to reach 35.6 trillion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on industry bottom layout opportunities, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for the company's long-term growth potential [3]. Core Insights - The signing of the investment agreement with MODON marks a significant step in the company's globalization strategy and optimization of regional and product structure [3]. - The project in Saudi Arabia is expected to fill a gap in the local automotive glass manufacturing industry, aligning with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 localization strategy [2]. - The project aims to enhance the company's overall profitability by introducing high-value automotive glass and Low-E energy-saving glass production lines, which will help mitigate the cyclical fluctuations of domestic float glass [2]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On January 14, 2026, the company signed an investment agreement in Saudi Arabia with a total investment of approximately $386 million, covering over 350,000 square meters for the construction of float, automotive, and high-performance Low-E energy-saving glass production lines [1]. Strategic Significance - The project allows the company to avoid trade barriers and deepen regional layout, effectively mitigating potential tariff risks and leveraging Saudi Arabia's free trade agreements [2]. - As the first automotive glass manufacturer in Saudi Arabia, the project provides a significant first-mover advantage, enabling the company to secure local supply chain demands amid the country's automotive industry development [2]. - The project is expected to benefit from local policy support in terms of taxes and energy, while proximity to energy sources will help control production costs [2].