IPO 申购指南 果下科技（2655.HK） 建议谨慎申购 2025-12-8 星期一 【招股详情】 | 保荐人 | 光大证券国际 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市日期 | 2025 年 月 | 12 | 16 日(周二) | | | 招股价格 | 港元 20.1 | | | | | 集资额 | 605.6 | | 百万港元（扣除包销费用和全球发售有关的估计费用） | | | 每手股数 | 股 100 | | | | | 入场费 | 2,030.26 | 港元 | | | | 招股日期 | 年 2025 | 12 | 月 日-2025 年 月 日 8 12 11 | | | 国元证券认购截止日期 | 2025 年 | 12 | 月 10 日 | | | 招股总数 | 33,852,900 | | 股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权的行使情况而定) | | | 国际配售 | 30,467,600 | | 股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权的行使情况而定)，约占 | 90% | | 公开发售 | 3,385,300 | | 股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权的行使情况而定)， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds significantly declined, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $980 million. The secondary market of Chinese dollar bonds fell, with multiple US Treasury yields rising [1][3][4]. - Various macro - events, including expected US interest rate cuts, the US Treasury debt hitting a record high, and significant changes in economic data in the US, EU, and other regions, have an impact on the bond market [5][30][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds significantly declined, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $980 million (converted to US dollars at the exchange rate on the pricing start date). The Agricultural Bank of China Tokyo Branch and the Bank of China Hong Kong Branch both issued $300 million bonds, the largest in scale last week. Chengdu Dongjin Huaizhou New City Investment Group Co., Ltd. issued a RMB 305 million senior unsecured guaranteed bond with a coupon rate of 5.9%, the highest - priced new bond last week [1][6][10]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) fell 0.40% week - on - week, and the emerging market dollar bond index fell 0.04%. The investment - grade index of Chinese dollar bonds closed at 202.1549, down 0.43% for the week; the high - yield index closed at 159.0776, down 0.24% for the week [4][9]. - The Chinese dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) fell 0.27% week - on - week, closing at 250.5431. The investment - grade return index of Chinese dollar bonds closed at 243.714, down 0.29% for the week; the high - yield return index closed at 240.107, down 0.13% for the week [15]. 2.2 Chinese Dollar Bond Industry Performance - In terms of industries, the materials and non - essential consumption sectors led the rise, while the real estate and essential consumption sectors led the decline. The materials sector's yield decreased by 192.3bps, and the non - essential consumption sector's yield decreased by 6.9bps. The real estate sector's yield increased by 17.9Mbps, and the essential consumption sector's yield increased by 17.6bps [17][20]. 2.3 Chinese Dollar Bond Different Rating Performance - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive rating, investment - grade names all declined. The weekly yield of A - rated bonds increased by 7.7bps, and that of BBB - rated bonds increased by 8.2bps; high - yield names all declined. The yield of BB - rated bonds increased by 13.1bps, the yield of DD + to NR - rated bonds increased by about 6.8bps, and the yield of non - rated names increased by 5.6Mbps [21][22]. 2.4 Last Week's Bond Market Hot Events - Aoyuan Group failed to pay the principal and interest of 267 million yuan for "H20 Aoyuan 2" on schedule. As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative unpaid principal and interest of "H20 Aoyuan 2" was approximately 644 million yuan [22]. - Shanghai Shimao Construction Co., Ltd. had new pending lawsuits of 391 million yuan and multiple enforcement cases. As of November 30, the company had failed to pay the principal and interest of corporate bonds of approximately 2 billion yuan, and there was a new single - overdue interest - bearing debt of over 10 million yuan of about 120 million yuan in November [23]. 2.5 Last Week's Subject Rating Adjustments - The ratings of Shandong Yihe Industrial Investment Group, Xiaomi Group, AIA Group, Zhengzhou Urban Construction, and other companies were adjusted, mainly due to factors such as the support of local governments, the improvement of profitability, and the enhancement of strategic importance [25][26]. 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The report provides quotes and related information for 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by descending order of yield to maturity [27]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of December 5, the yields of 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds were 3.5895% (down 0.19bps from last week), 3.5603% (up 7.1bps from last week), 3.7113% (up 11.49bps from last week), and 4.1351% (up 12.19bps from last week), respectively [28][32]. 5. Macro News - Hassett expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The US Treasury debt has exceeded $30 trillion, doubling since 2018. The US November "small non - farm" had the largest decline in two and a half years. The US November ISM services PMI rose to 52.6, and the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2. The US initial jobless claims last week reached a three - year low [30][31][33]. - The EU will ban the import of Russian natural gas starting from the autumn of 2027. The eurozone's November composite PMI reached a 30 - month high, and the CPI rose 2.2% year - on - year. The Japanese central bank is likely to raise the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in December [37][38][40]. - The 2025 global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6%. In November, the average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities increased by 0.37% month - on - month and 2.68% year - on - year, while the average price of second - hand homes decreased. The retail sales of the national passenger car market in November decreased by 7% year - on - year [41][42][43]. - The new national standard for takeaways was introduced, and the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers in November increased by 20% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month [44][45].

2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.71 个基点报 3.521% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 究 报 告 哈塞特预计将降息约 25 个基点 特朗普考虑明年退出美墨加协定 美国财政部债务突破 30 万亿美元大关，较 2018 年翻倍 美国上周初请失业金人数创三年来新低 美国 11 月挑战者企业裁员人数为 7.13 万 环比下降 53.4% 欧元区 10 月零售销售同比+1.5%超预期 环比持平符合预期 中国疾控中心：全国流感疫情整体处于高流行水平 外卖新国标出台：禁止平台强制商户促销、转嫁成本 苹果 10 月全球份额达 24.2% 创历史单月最高记录 TikTok 拟 370 亿美元在巴西建设数据中心 5 年期美债收益率涨 4.51 个基点报 3.673% 10 年期美债收益率涨 3.48 个基点报 4.098% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Economic Data - The U.S. November "small non-farm" employment data showed the largest decline in two and a half years, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4] - The ISM Services PMI index for the U.S. rose to 52.6 in November, marking a nine-month high [4] - The Eurozone's October PPI decreased by 0.5% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month [4] - The EU plans to completely ban imports of Russian natural gas starting in autumn 2027 [4] - China has become Brazil's largest fertilizer supplier for the first time [4] - The retail sales of passenger cars in China for November reached 2.263 million units, a year-on-year decline of 7% [4] - IDC forecasts that the iPhone 17 will drive Apple to record shipment volumes in 2025 [4] - Li Auto officially launched its first AI glasses, Livis, with a starting price of 1,999 yuan [4] - ByteDance announced that TikTok plans to invest 200 billion reais (approximately 38 billion USD) [4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 23,454.09, up 0.17% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,882.90, up 0.86% [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,849.72, up 0.30% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,760.73, down 1.28% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,878.00, down 0.51% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $4.30, indicating a potential upside of 21.2% from the current price of $3.52 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is currently undergoing a transformation phase, leveraging AI to enhance its ecosystem and achieve a positive cycle [5]. - Despite a 22% year-over-year decline in total revenue for Q3 2025, operational efficiency and cost control measures have led to a significant narrowing of Non-GAAP operating losses by 16.3% to 73.5 million yuan [7][10]. - The strategic shift towards an AI-driven community aims to reshape the content ecosystem, enhancing user engagement and monetization opportunities [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 659 million yuan, down 22% year-over-year, with paid membership revenue declining by approximately 16.1% to 386 million yuan [7][10]. - Marketing services revenue fell by 26.6% to 189 million yuan, while other business revenues, including vocational training, decreased by 35.1% to 83.9 million yuan [7][10]. - The company reported a net loss of 46.7 million yuan for Q3, with adjusted net losses narrowing to 21 million yuan, indicating improved profitability metrics [7][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has accelerated its core strategy to build an AI-driven community, focusing on high-quality content, expert networks, and AI capabilities [4][8]. - The penetration rate of the AI product "Zhihu Direct Answer" exceeded 15%, marking a fourfold increase from the previous year, which enhances user experience and information retrieval efficiency [8][10]. - Future growth is expected to rely heavily on the successful execution of AI strategies, including enhanced membership services and innovative advertising products [5][10]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is projected to achieve profitability by 2027, despite short-term revenue declines due to its strategic transformation [5][10]. - With cash and cash equivalents totaling 4.58 billion yuan, the company has a strong financial position to support future strategic investments and AI development [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the unique advantages of the company in high-quality content and professional creator ecosystems, positioning it favorably in the AI era [10].

2025 年 12 月 3 日星期三 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普：将于明年初宣布美联储主席人选 美国 SEC 主席拟于 1 月推出资本市场新规 鼓励更多企业上 市 欧元区 11 月 CPI 同比+2.2%、环比-0.3% 经合组织：美国关税上调将导致 2026 年全球经济增长放缓 经合组织上调 2025 年中国经济增长预期至 5% 甲乙流特效药订单量暴增近 9 倍 亚马逊抢先推出最新 AI 芯片，挑战英伟达、谷歌 "大空头"Burry 做空特斯拉 马斯克官宣将 X 打造成中国境外"微信升级版" 豆包 AI 助手手机售罄 2 年期美债收益率跌 1.62 个基点报 3.508% 5 年期美债收益率跌 0.34 个基点报 3.657% 10 年期美债收益率涨 0.19 个基点报 4.088% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2025-12-03 | 7618 | 京东工业 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company, but it suggests that the current macro environment continues to exert operational pressure on the company, indicating a cautious outlook on its performance [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue decline of 5.4% year-on-year to HKD 4.036 billion for FY26H1, with adjusted EBITDA down 29.4% to HKD 243 million, and a net profit attributable to shareholders down 67.6% to HKD 46.7 million. The decline is attributed to weak restaurant performance in both Hong Kong and mainland China, as well as a normalization of consumer spending patterns [1][2]. - In response to the changing operational environment, the company is implementing significant business restructuring focused on six key areas: cost optimization, consolidation of advantageous business segments, restructuring of the fast-food segment, transformation of store models, integration of production lines, and exploring new business opportunities [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 5.4% year-on-year to HKD 4.036 billion, with specific declines in various segments: fast food (-5.9%), casual dining (-5.6%), institutional dining (-4.3%), and others (-8.1%). Mainland revenue fell by 3.8%. Net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 67.6%, and when excluding fair value losses from investment properties, the decline was 59.4% [1][2]. Business Restructuring - The company is focusing on six main areas for restructuring: 1. **Cost Optimization**: Aiming for a 20% reduction in rental costs over the next three years and consolidating procurement for key ingredients to lower costs [3]. 2. **Strengthening Core Businesses**: Despite revenue impacts from closing inefficient stores, profitability in institutional and casual dining is improving [3]. 3. **Fast Food Segment Overhaul**: Addressing significant operational pressures by optimizing 220 fast-food outlets, particularly underperforming large and small stores [3]. 4. **Store Model Transformation**: Shifting focus from large stores to smaller models, with target sizes as low as 1,500 square feet to enhance operational flexibility [3]. 5. **Production Line Integration**: Strategically relocating production functions to mainland China to mitigate ongoing operational cost pressures in Hong Kong [3]. 6. **New Business Opportunities**: Actively seeking potential acquisition opportunities [3]. Investment Considerations - The ongoing macroeconomic changes are expected to continue impacting the company's operations, and while the restructuring efforts aim to restore confidence, a full recovery in performance is anticipated to take time. However, the high dividend yield (approximately 7% based on FY25 dividends) may provide some support for the stock price [4].

Group 1 - The investment logic for the optional consumption sector focuses on the certainty brought by the outbound manufacturing industry chain and the recovery of leading brands [3][37][79] - The strategy emphasizes the acceleration of the industry chain moving to Southeast Asia, leading to a surge in orders and a supply-demand imbalance in the textile and apparel sector [3][43][52] - The terminal consumption environment is stabilizing, with a focus on the recovery of the luxury goods industry, which is expected to show resilience [3][73][76] Group 2 - In 2025, the textile and apparel industry is witnessing a clear trend of manufacturing moving to Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, driven by factors such as labor cost differences and tariff impacts [38][43][51] - The investment in Vietnam's manufacturing sector has seen significant growth, with FDI reaching $31.2 billion from mainland China, indicating a strong shift in production capabilities [43][44] - The supply chain dynamics are changing, with brands increasingly transferring orders to Southeast Asia to manage costs and mitigate risks, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the region [52][57] Group 3 - The luxury goods market is experiencing structural changes, with a shift from ostentatious consumption to experiential consumption, which is expected to drive growth in 2026 [73][76] - Companies in the luxury sector, such as LVMH and Richemont, are showing signs of recovery, particularly in the Chinese market, which is crucial for their growth [76][78] - The overall consumer sentiment is gradually improving, which may lead to a recovery in high-net-worth consumer spending in the luxury sector [64][76] Group 4 - Recommended companies for investment include Shenzhou International, which is a leading player in the knitwear industry with a strong presence in China and Southeast Asia, benefiting from supply chain shifts [81] - Another focus is on Superwin International Holdings, a head supplier of functional fabrics, which is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand in Southeast Asia due to its early investments in the region [82]

2025 年 12 月 2 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 美国 11 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 连续第九个月萎缩 美国同意对原产于英国的药品等豁免 232 条款关税 日本央行行长强烈暗示 12 月加息 工信部：鼓励中国光伏、风电、锂电池、新能源汽车等优势 企业"走出去" 中国公民 2026 年 9 月 14 日前可免签前往俄罗斯 11 月百城新建住宅均价为 17036 元/平方米，环比上涨 0.37% 万科 20 亿债券展期方案出炉，拟本息展期一年 空客证实"机身面板存在质量问题"报道，称问题根源已查明 并得到控制 DeepSeekV3.2 正式发布：推理达 GPT-5 水平 特斯拉在欧洲的销量下滑势头没有减弱迹象 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.70 个基点报 3.532% 5 年期美债收益率涨 6.58 个基点报 3.664% 10 年期美债收益率涨 7.33 个基点报 4.087% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in global merchandise trade growth as indicated by the World Trade Organization [4] - The U.S. online consumption during Black Friday reached a record high of $11.8 billion [4] - The European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that interest rates are at a reasonable level [4] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain the overall oil production of the group unchanged until 2026 [4] - The proportion of single-person households in South Korea has surpassed 36% for the first time [4] - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for November was 49.2%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% [4] - The total social logistics volume in China for the first ten months reached 293.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [4] - The top 100 enterprises in China acquired land worth 847.8 billion yuan from January to November, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [4] - New regulations for live-streaming e-commerce are expected to be introduced [4] - The AI industry in Beijing is projected to exceed 450 billion yuan this year [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2560.00, up 3.23% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23365.69, up 0.65% [5] - The CME Bitcoin futures price was 91500.00, up 1.27% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47716.42, up 0.61% [5] - The ICE Brent Crude Oil price was 63.19, down 0.24% [5] - The London Gold price closed at 4218.55, up 1.48% [5] - The U.S. Dollar Index was at 99.44, down 0.11% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25858.89, down 0.34% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60, up 0.34% [5] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2453.81, up 0.96% [5]