2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案，并提交众议院 鲍威尔：若无特朗普关税，美联储已开始降息 欧洲央行决定维持 2%的通胀目标 SEMI 预计 2030 年全球半导体产业面临百万人才缺口 中国 6 月财新制造业重回扩张区间 两部门：支持创新药进入基本医保药品目录和商业健康保险 创新药品目录 光伏玻璃龙头集体减产 30% 业内专家：有利于玻璃价格复 苏 国家电影局：上半年电影票房 292.31 亿元 工信部：1-5 月份互联网企业完成互联网业务收入 7735 亿 元 小米上线青年公寓，月租金 1999 元 2 年期美债收益率涨 4.71 个基点报 3.764% 5 年期美债收益率涨 3.28 个基点报 3.825% 10 年期美债收益率涨 1.17 个基点报 4.234% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | - ...

【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 【实时热点】 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普：美国应将利率控制在 1%或 2% 美财长暗示或延长关税谈判截止日期 美国 5 月核心 PCE 同比+2.7%、环比+0.2% 均高于预期 俄罗斯发动自冲突以来最大规模空袭 日本明年将征收单身税 中国 5 月规模以上工业企业利润下降 9.1% 1-5 月全国国有及国有控股企业利润总额同比下降 2.8% 国产 GLP-1 减重药玛仕度肽获批上市 特斯拉 Model Y 首次实现无人驾驶交付 小米汽车回应"YU7 赛道测试时刹车起火"：高温所致，非系 统故障 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.47 个基点报 3.746% 5 年期美债收益率涨 3.28 个基点报 3.827% 10 年期美债收益率涨 3.13 个基点报 4.271% 纳斯达克综合指数 （日） 道琼斯工业平均指数（日） 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 ...

Key Points - The report highlights that US durable goods orders increased by 16.4% month-on-month in May, exceeding expectations [4] - It notes that the US trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic [4] - The US GDP growth rate for the first quarter was revised down to -0.5% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 236,000, which is below expectations [4] - The US dollar index fell below 97 for the first time since March 2022 [4] - The report mentions that the EU is considering reducing tariffs on US imports [4] - It discusses the uncertain outlook for stablecoins as they have not met key requirements for the monetary system, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements [4] - The report also covers the launch of a new generation CPU developed in China [4] - It notes that Microsoft and OpenAI are at an impasse in negotiations regarding terms for contracts related to general artificial intelligence (AGI) [4] - The yields on US Treasury bonds decreased, with the 2-year yield down by 6.74 basis points to 3.711%, the 5-year yield down by 5.13 basis points to 3.794%, and the 10-year yield down by 5.09 basis points to 4.240% [4]

Economic Data - U.S. 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.02 basis points to 3.7786%[4] - U.S. 5-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.59 basis points to 3.845%[4] - U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.59 basis points to 4.2906%[4] Market Indices - Nasdaq Index closed at 19,973.55, up by 0.31%[5] - Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 42,982.43, down by 0.25%[5] - S&P 500 Index remained unchanged at 6,092.16[5] - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,474.67, up by 1.23%[5] - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,455.97, up by 1.04%[5] Commodity Prices - ICE Brent crude oil price increased by 0.70% to $67.61[5] - CME Bitcoin futures rose by 2.06% to $107,925[5] - London gold spot price increased by 0.29% to $3,332.10[5]

Economic Indicators - The US current account deficit surged to a record $450.2 billion in Q1 2023[3] - 70% of central banks are reluctant to invest in US dollars[3] - Shipping costs to the Middle East increased by approximately 50% due to the Israel-Hamas conflict[3] Monetary Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts could occur earlier if the labor market weakens and inflation decreases[3] Market Performance - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 3.6 basis points to 3.819%[3] - The 5-year US Treasury yield decreased by 5.08 basis points to 3.861%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 4.91 basis points to 4.297%[3] Stock Market Movements - The Nasdaq index rose by 1.43% to close at 19,912.53[4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.19% to 43,089.02[4] - The S&P 500 index gained 1.11% to finish at 6,092.18[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 66.37 per share, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 54.85 [6][39]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of RMB 111.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and a net profit of RMB 10.7 billion, up 64.5% year-on-year, marking the highest figures for the same period in history [3][9]. - The SU7 series saw a delivery of 75,869 units in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.9% quarter-on-quarter, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 258,000 units by the end of March 2025 [4][11]. - The upcoming SUV model YU7 is expected to be launched on June 26, 2025, which could enhance market interest due to its competitive features and pricing strategy [5][19]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 493.23 billion, RMB 600.31 billion, and RMB 715.69 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of RMB 37.72 billion, RMB 51.70 billion, and RMB 66.76 billion [6][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached RMB 111.3 billion, a 47.4% increase year-on-year, with the "Mobile × AIoT" segment contributing RMB 92.7 billion, up 22.8% [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.7 billion, reflecting a 64.5% year-on-year growth [3][9]. Automotive Business - The SU7 series is expected to achieve profitability in H2 2025, with a significant reduction in operating losses due to increased delivery volumes [4][18]. - The company plans to expand its automotive sales network, having opened 235 sales centers across 65 cities by March 31, 2025 [15]. Product Launches - The YU7 SUV is anticipated to be launched soon, featuring a long range of 835 km and advanced safety technologies, which may lead to higher sales than market expectations [5][19]. Market Position - The company continues to rank among the top three global smartphone manufacturers, with a market share of 14.1% in Q1 2025, and has seen a significant increase in its market share in mainland China [22][29]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached RMB 1,211, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [23]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate strong growth, with expected increases of 34.8%, 21.7%, and 19.2% respectively, alongside substantial net profit growth [6][34].

Economic Indicators - The preliminary June Manufacturing PMI for the US remains steady at 52, better than market expectations[4] - The Eurozone's preliminary June Composite PMI stands at 50.2, below expectations[4] - The US 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.44 basis points to 3.855%[4] - The US 5-year Treasury yield fell by 4.39 basis points to 3.912%[4] - The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 2.75 basis points to 4.346%[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,630.97, up by 0.94%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,581.78, up by 0.89%[5] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,025.17, up by 0.96%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,689.13, up by 0.67%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,381.58, up by 0.65%[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds rebounded last week, with 19 bonds issued totaling approximately $5.2 billion. The secondary market showed that investment - grade bonds outperformed high - yield bonds. The yields of most US Treasuries declined. [1][5] - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, adjusted GDP and inflation forecasts, and the dot - plot indicated changes in future interest - rate cut expectations. [30] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - The issuance volume of Chinese offshore bonds in the primary market rebounded significantly last week, with 19 bonds issued and a total scale of about $5.2 billion. The MTR Corporation issued two sub - perpetual capital securities totaling $3 billion, the largest issuance scale of the week, and the final subscription was over 5.3 times. Carson International issued a $100 million senior unsecured bond with a coupon rate of 9.5%, the highest - priced new bond of the week. The market demand was strong, with Cinda Hong Kong's issuance of a 2.8 billion RMB senior bond being over - subscribed by more than 10 times. [1][7][10] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.18% week - on - week, the emerging market US dollar bond index rose 0.12%. The investment - grade index of Chinese US dollar bonds closed at 194.6838, up 0.21% week - on - week, while the high - yield index closed at 159.9503, down 0.03% week - on - week. [12] - The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.15% week - on - week, closing at 243.0133. The investment - grade return index closed at 235.8563, up 0.17% week - on - week, and the high - yield return index closed at 237.0713, up 0.05% week - on - week. [17] 2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Industry Performance - In terms of industries, the materials and industrial sectors led the gains, while the healthcare and real - estate sectors led the losses. The materials sector was mainly affected by the price increases of companies such as Zhangzhou Yuanshan Development Co., Ltd. and Lintou Overseas Co., Ltd., with the yield down 73.9 bps. The industrial sector was mainly affected by the price increases of companies such as Qihe Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Dazhou Industrial Development Co., Ltd., with the yield down 52.7 bps. The healthcare sector was mainly affected by the price declines of companies such as WuXi AppTec (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. and Luye Pharma Group Ltd., with the yield up 295.0 bps. The real - estate sector was mainly affected by the price declines of companies such as Zhengshang Real Estate Co., Ltd. and Hongsheng Co., Ltd., with the yield up 284.7 bps. [20] 2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Different Rating Performance - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive ratings, investment - grade names all rose, with the A - grade weekly yield down 18.7 bps and the BBB - grade weekly yield down 27.9 bps. High - yield names had mixed performance, with the BB - grade yield down 58.5 bps, the DD+ to NR - grade yield down about 25.9 bps, and the unrated names' yield up 17.3 bps. [22] 2.4 Last Week's Bond Market Hot Events - Longfor Group: By the end of 2025, the company's interest - bearing debt balance will drop to about 140 billion yuan. The company has fully redeemed 7 billion yuan of onshore credit bonds since the beginning of the year and has made clear debt repayment arrangements for the debts due in 2025. [23] - Sichuan Bluemoon Development Co., Ltd.: From March 11 to June 16, 2025, the company's headquarters and important subsidiaries had 11 new entries on the list of dishonest被执行人, with 8 entries for the headquarters and 3 for Sichuan Bluemoon Hejun Industrial Co., Ltd. [24] 2.5 Last Week's Subject Rating Adjustments - Many companies' ratings were maintained or adjusted, including CICC, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Gansu Gonghanglv Group, etc. The reasons for rating adjustments mainly included the companies' business strength, asset quality, capital status, and their relationship with the government. [26][28] 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The report provides quotes for US Treasury bonds as of June 23, 2025, including details such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon. [29] 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of June 20, the US Treasury yields were as follows: 1 - year (T1) at 4.0606%, up 0.3 bps from the previous week; 2 - year (T2) at 3.9077%, down 3.98 bps; 5 - year (T5) at 3.9608%, down 3.88 bps; 10 - year (T10) at 4.3909%, down 0.78 bps. [32] 5. Macro News - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, adjusted GDP and inflation forecasts, and the dot - plot showed changes in future interest - rate cut expectations. [30] - The stablecoin regulatory bill passed in the US Senate and will be submitted to the House of Representatives for review. [33] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 5,000 to 245,000. [34] - US new home starts in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month. [35] - US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline this year. [36] - US industrial output in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. [37] - Trump's tax reform and budget bills will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion in the next decade. [38] - Japan's exports to the US in May decreased by 11.1% year - on - year for the second consecutive month. [39] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and will slow down the pace of bond - purchase reduction from fiscal year 2026. [41] - The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4.25% with a more divided vote. [42] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 bps to 0%. [43] - The Central Bank of Norway cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%. [44] - Asia remained the most favored destination for global foreign investment in 2024. [45] - The Japanese government may consider raising the departure tax. [46] - China's economic operation in May was generally stable, with some indicators continuing to improve. [47] - The year - on - year decline in housing prices in Chinese cities continued to narrow in May. [49] - The share of the RMB in global payment currencies was 2.89% in May, down from 3.50% in April. [50]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 7.79 per share, indicating a potential upside of 13.9% from the current price of HKD 6.84 [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance in FY25 is expected to decline due to the weak economic environment in Hong Kong and mainland China, with revenue projected to decrease by 1.4% to HKD 8,568.3 million and net profit expected to drop by 29.57% to HKD 232.74 million [2][8]. - The company has maintained positive growth in the past three years, with revenue growth rates of 11.82%, 6.86%, and 8.32% from FY22 to FY24, and significant increases in net profit during the same period [8][9]. - The company is adopting a cautious approach to store expansion, with a net increase of only 1 store in Hong Kong and 14 stores in mainland China for FY25, focusing on smaller store formats to reduce rental costs [3][9]. - To stimulate consumer demand, the company is actively adjusting its business model by introducing cost-effective menu items and enhancing its membership program, "Club 100," which has attracted 2 million members in Hong Kong and 6.6 million in mainland China [4][10]. Financial Summary - For FY25, the company is expected to report revenues of HKD 8,568 million, a decrease of 1.42% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 10.42% and a net profit margin of 2.72% [6][20]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are HKD 0.41, HKD 0.46, and HKD 0.58, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times for FY26 [5][13].

Market Overview - The liquidity in the U.S. stock, corporate bond, and municipal bond markets has significantly deteriorated[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.60 basis points to 3.899%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.69 basis points to 3.956%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 1.59 basis points to 4.373%[4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1689.00, down 3.54%[5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19447.41, down 0.51%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42206.82, up 0.08%[5] - The S&P 500 closed at 5967.84, down 0.22%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23530.48, up 1.26%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3359.90, down 0.07%[5]