请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 1443.00 | -1.03 | 纳斯达克指数 | 20601.10 | 1.02 | | CME比特币期货 | 110605.00 | 0.29 | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44828.53 | 0.77 | | ICE布油 | 68.85 | -0.38 | 美元指数 | 97.12 | 0.35 | | 伦敦金现 | 3326.09 | -0.92 | 标普500 | 6279.35 | 0.83 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | 7.16 | -0.08 | 日经225 | 39785.90 | 0.06 | | 香港重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Company Performance - 和誉-B (2256.HK) has a total market value of HKD 70 billion, with a price increase of 137.1% since its inclusion on November 1, 2024[2] - 宜明昂科-B (1541.HK) has a market value of HKD 49 billion, showing a price drop of 73.7% since its inclusion on April 2, 2025[2] - 康哲药业 (0867.HK) has a market value of HKD 293 billion, with a price increase of 54.6% since its inclusion on November 1, 2024[2] Group 2: Financial Metrics - 和誉-B's PE ratio is projected to be 236.60 for 2024, decreasing to 48.67 by 2026[2] - 宜明昂科-B's EPS is expected to be -0.91 in 2024, improving to -0.60 in 2025[2] - 康哲药业's PE ratio is 16.65 for 2024, with a slight decrease in profit expected in 2025[2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - 和誉-B signed a licensing agreement with Merck worth USD 605.5 million, granting exclusive commercialization rights in Greater China[2] - 美兰空港 (0357.HK) is expected to improve operational efficiency through the management of three airports in Hainan Free Trade Port[2] - 阅文集团 (0772.HK) has seen its IP derivative business grow, with a GMV exceeding HKD 500 million in 2024[2] Group 4: Market Outlook - 连连数字 (2598.HK) is positioned to potentially obtain a stablecoin issuance license, indicating significant future growth potential[2] - 蒙牛乳业 (2319.HK) is expected to maintain a high dividend yield, supported by a favorable competitive landscape in the education sector[3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the U.S. economy is showing mixed signals, with a surprising decrease in ADP employment numbers by 33,000 in June, indicating potential labor market weakness [4] - The report notes a significant increase in wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China, projected to grow by 29% year-on-year in June [4] - Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries reached 384,000, which fell short of market expectations, suggesting potential challenges in meeting demand [4] Group 2 - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1458.00, reflecting a decrease of 2.08%, indicating a decline in shipping rates [5] - The Nasdaq Index increased by 0.94% to close at 20,393.13, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight decrease of 0.02% to 44,484.42 [5] - The price of ICE Brent crude oil rose by 3.04% to $69.15, suggesting a recovery in oil prices [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields have seen slight increases, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.64 basis points to 3.781% and the 10-year yield increasing by 4.50 basis points to 4.279% [4] - The report mentions that the number of new A-share accounts opened in June reached 1.65 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 53%, indicating growing investor interest in the Chinese stock market [4] - The report also notes that the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 24,221.41, up by 0.62%, reflecting positive market sentiment [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent passage of a comprehensive tax and spending bill by the U.S. Senate, which is now submitted to the House of Representatives [4] - It notes that the Federal Reserve, led by Powell, has begun to lower interest rates, contingent on the absence of tariffs from Trump [4] - The European Central Bank has decided to maintain a 2% inflation target [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1489.00, down 2.10% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 20202.89, down 0.82%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.91% to 44494.94 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price increased by 0.81% to $67.28, and the London gold spot price rose by 1.07% to $3337.33 [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.13% to 96.65, while the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.16, down 0.05% [5] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is projected to face a talent shortage of one million by 2030, according to SEMI [4] - The Chinese manufacturing sector, as indicated by the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, returned to the expansion zone in June [4] - The leading photovoltaic glass manufacturers collectively reduced production by 30%, which experts believe will benefit the recovery of glass prices [4] - The film industry in China reported a box office revenue of 29.231 billion yuan in the first half of the year [4] - Internet companies in China achieved an internet business revenue of 773.5 billion yuan from January to May [4]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. May Core PCE increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both exceeding expectations[4] - China's industrial enterprises' profits fell by 9.1% in May, while profits of state-owned enterprises decreased by 2.8% from January to May[4] U.S. Treasury Yields - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.47 basis points to 3.746%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 3.28 basis points to 3.827%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 3.13 basis points to 4.271%[4] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq Index closed at 20,273.46, up by 0.52%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43,819.27, up by 1.00%[5] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,173.07, up by 0.52%[5] Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil was $67.31, down by 0.62%[5] - The London gold spot price was $3,273.34, down by 1.63%[5]

Key Points - The report highlights that US durable goods orders increased by 16.4% month-on-month in May, exceeding expectations [4] - It notes that the US trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic [4] - The US GDP growth rate for the first quarter was revised down to -0.5% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 236,000, which is below expectations [4] - The US dollar index fell below 97 for the first time since March 2022 [4] - The report mentions that the EU is considering reducing tariffs on US imports [4] - It discusses the uncertain outlook for stablecoins as they have not met key requirements for the monetary system, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements [4] - The report also covers the launch of a new generation CPU developed in China [4] - It notes that Microsoft and OpenAI are at an impasse in negotiations regarding terms for contracts related to general artificial intelligence (AGI) [4] - The yields on US Treasury bonds decreased, with the 2-year yield down by 6.74 basis points to 3.711%, the 5-year yield down by 5.13 basis points to 3.794%, and the 10-year yield down by 5.09 basis points to 4.240% [4]

Economic Data - U.S. 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.02 basis points to 3.7786%[4] - U.S. 5-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.59 basis points to 3.845%[4] - U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.59 basis points to 4.2906%[4] Market Indices - Nasdaq Index closed at 19,973.55, up by 0.31%[5] - Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 42,982.43, down by 0.25%[5] - S&P 500 Index remained unchanged at 6,092.16[5] - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,474.67, up by 1.23%[5] - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,455.97, up by 1.04%[5] Commodity Prices - ICE Brent crude oil price increased by 0.70% to $67.61[5] - CME Bitcoin futures rose by 2.06% to $107,925[5] - London gold spot price increased by 0.29% to $3,332.10[5]

Economic Indicators - The US current account deficit surged to a record $450.2 billion in Q1 2023[3] - 70% of central banks are reluctant to invest in US dollars[3] - Shipping costs to the Middle East increased by approximately 50% due to the Israel-Hamas conflict[3] Monetary Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts could occur earlier if the labor market weakens and inflation decreases[3] Market Performance - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 3.6 basis points to 3.819%[3] - The 5-year US Treasury yield decreased by 5.08 basis points to 3.861%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 4.91 basis points to 4.297%[3] Stock Market Movements - The Nasdaq index rose by 1.43% to close at 19,912.53[4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.19% to 43,089.02[4] - The S&P 500 index gained 1.11% to finish at 6,092.18[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 66.37 per share, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 54.85 [6][39]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of RMB 111.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and a net profit of RMB 10.7 billion, up 64.5% year-on-year, marking the highest figures for the same period in history [3][9]. - The SU7 series saw a delivery of 75,869 units in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.9% quarter-on-quarter, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 258,000 units by the end of March 2025 [4][11]. - The upcoming SUV model YU7 is expected to be launched on June 26, 2025, which could enhance market interest due to its competitive features and pricing strategy [5][19]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 493.23 billion, RMB 600.31 billion, and RMB 715.69 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of RMB 37.72 billion, RMB 51.70 billion, and RMB 66.76 billion [6][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached RMB 111.3 billion, a 47.4% increase year-on-year, with the "Mobile × AIoT" segment contributing RMB 92.7 billion, up 22.8% [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.7 billion, reflecting a 64.5% year-on-year growth [3][9]. Automotive Business - The SU7 series is expected to achieve profitability in H2 2025, with a significant reduction in operating losses due to increased delivery volumes [4][18]. - The company plans to expand its automotive sales network, having opened 235 sales centers across 65 cities by March 31, 2025 [15]. Product Launches - The YU7 SUV is anticipated to be launched soon, featuring a long range of 835 km and advanced safety technologies, which may lead to higher sales than market expectations [5][19]. Market Position - The company continues to rank among the top three global smartphone manufacturers, with a market share of 14.1% in Q1 2025, and has seen a significant increase in its market share in mainland China [22][29]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached RMB 1,211, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [23]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate strong growth, with expected increases of 34.8%, 21.7%, and 19.2% respectively, alongside substantial net profit growth [6][34].

Economic Indicators - The preliminary June Manufacturing PMI for the US remains steady at 52, better than market expectations[4] - The Eurozone's preliminary June Composite PMI stands at 50.2, below expectations[4] - The US 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.44 basis points to 3.855%[4] - The US 5-year Treasury yield fell by 4.39 basis points to 3.912%[4] - The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 2.75 basis points to 4.346%[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,630.97, up by 0.94%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,581.78, up by 0.89%[5] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,025.17, up by 0.96%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,689.13, up by 0.67%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,381.58, up by 0.65%[5]