宏观要闻： 美联储 FOMC 如期降息 25 个基点； 美联储上调 2025-2028 年 GDP 预期； 美国 9 月贸易逆差环比大幅缩窄近 11%，显著低于市场预期； 美国上周初请失业金人数激增 4.4 万人至 23.6 万人； 美国政府 11 月预算赤字降至 1730 亿美元； 美国 10 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 767 万人，远超预期； 日本决定加强对高资产收入群体的税收征管； 日本第三季度实际 GDP 修正值下调为环比萎缩 0.6%，同比萎缩 2.3%； 证 澳洲联储维持基准利率在 3.60%不变，符合预期； 券 国际能源署（IEA）自 5 月来首次下调全球原油供应过剩预期； 研 中央经济工作会议确定 8 方面重点任务； 姓名：段静娴 究 中国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，创 2024 年 3 月以来最高； IMF 上调中国经济增速预测值。 研究部 SFC：BLO863 电话：0755-21519166 报 周报 一级市场发行量回升，二级市场高收益优于投资级 中资美元债 2025-12-16 星期二 一级市场发行量回升： 上周中资离岸债一级市场发行量回升，新发 5 只债券，规模共约 18 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日星期二 证 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 券 研 究 报 告 美联储内部降息分歧加剧，通胀前景预期分化 纳斯达克申请 5X23 小时交易 日本央行或迎 30 年最猛加息，政策利率将冲 0.75% 高市早苗：目前拟将个税起征点定为 168 万日元 11 月国民经济稳中有进，工业、进出口等多项指标向好 11 月 70 城房价环比总体下降，一线城市二手房降幅扩大 中指院：房地产进入存量主导阶段二手房成成交主力 英伟达发布新版开源 AI 模型 宣称"更快、更便宜、更智能" 特斯拉启动无安全员 Robotaxi 路测 复星医药 14.12 亿控股绿谷医药，拿下阿尔茨海默病创新药 2 年期美债收益率跌 1.86 个基点报 3.504% 5 年期美债收益率跌 1.39 个基点报 3.724% 10 年期美债收益率跌 0.78 个基点报 4.174% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- ...

建议谨慎申购 2025-12-15 星期一 IPO 申购指南 诺比侃（2635.HK） | 【招股详情】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保荐人 | 中金公司 | | | | | | | | | 上市日期 | 年 2025 | 月 12 | 23 | 日(周二) | | | | | | 招股价格 | 80.0 | 港元至 | 106.0 | 港元 | | | | | | 集资额 | 3.06 | | | | | | 亿港元（扣除包销费用和全球发售有关的估计费用，以中位数计算） | | | 每手股数 | 50 股 | | | | | | | | | 入场费 | 5,353.45 | 港元 | | | | | | | | 招股日期 | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 15 | 日-2025 年 | 12 | | 月 19 日 | | | 国元证券认购截止日期 | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 18 | 日 | | | | | | 招股总数 | 379 | | | | 万股(可予调整及视乎超额配 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company [1] Core Insights - The company ranks 10th in China's digital integrated health services and health insurance market based on revenue for 2024, according to a report by Sullivan [2] - The integrated health services and health insurance market in China is projected to grow from RMB 6,226.1 billion in 2020 to RMB 8,149.4 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, and is expected to reach RMB 11,804.0 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.7% from 2024 to 2029 [2] - The company provides a comprehensive platform for health services and insurance funding resources, catering to users' overall health needs [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue from continuing operations for the past years is as follows: RMB 394 million in 2023, RMB 490 million in 2024, RMB 945 million in the first nine months of 2025, and RMB 656 million in the same period [3] - The corresponding net profits were RMB -9.098 million, RMB 97.169 million, RMB 8.99 million, and RMB 86.045 million [3] - The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is approximately HKD 4.7 billion, with the IPO price corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of about 40.0X for 2025, indicating a high valuation [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the signing of an agreement among the US and eight countries, including Japan and Australia, to strengthen the rare earth supply chain [4] - It notes that China's new social financing in November reached 2.49 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 390 billion yuan [4] - The report mentions that the UK experienced an unexpected contraction in GDP in October [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2205.00, down 3.88% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23195.17, down 1.69%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48458.05, down 0.51% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at 61.22, down 0.10% [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 25976.79, up 1.75% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35, up 0.41% [5]

腾讯音乐（TME.N） 2025-12-12 星期五 | 目标价： | 21.84 | 美元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现 价： | 18.20 | 美元 | | 预计升幅： | 20.0% | | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-12-11 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(美元) | 18.20 | | 总股本(亿份 ADS) | 15.48 | | 总市值(亿美元) | 290.76 | | 净资产(亿美元) | 121.06 | | 总资产(亿美元) | 151.19 | | 52 周高低(美元) | 9.29/25.98 | | 每 ADS 净资产(美元) | 3.79 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 | 腾讯 | 53.56% | | --- | --- | | SPOTIFY | 9.13% | 相关报告 ➢ SVIP 渗透率提升，带动 ARPPU 增长 本季度在线音乐业务持续高质量增长，得益于付费订阅和非订阅业务两大板 块协同发力，目前已经形成了稳固的"双轮驱动"增长模型。首先，作为基本 盘的音乐订阅业务表现稳健，收入同比增长 ...

IPO 申购指南 希迪智驾（3881.HK） 建议谨慎申购 2025-12-11 星期四 【招股详情】 | 保荐人 | 中金公司，中信建投国际，平安证券（香港） | | --- | --- | | 上市日期 | 2025 年 12 月 19 日（星期五） | | 招股价格 | 港元/股 263 | | 集资额 | 13.09 亿港元 | | 每手股数 | 股 10 | | 入场费 | 2,656.52 港元 | | 招股日期 | 2025 年 12 月 11 日-2025 年 12 月 16 日 | | 国元证券认购截止日期 | 年 月 日 2025 12 15 | | 招股总数 | 540.798 万股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权的行使情况而定) | | 国际配售 | 513.758 万股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权的行使情况而定)，约占 95% | | 公开发售 | 27.04 万股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权的行使情况而定)，约占 5% | 【申购建议】 公司是中国商用车智能驾驶产品及解决方案的供货商。公司专注于对用于采 矿及物流的封闭环境自动驾驶卡车、V2X（车路协同）技术及智能感知解决 方案的研发，并提供 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company [1] Core Insights - The company focuses on zinc, lead, and copper mining in Tibet, China, ranking fifth in zinc, fourth in lead, and fifth in copper production in 2024 [2] - Domestic demand for zinc, lead, and copper is expected to maintain growth, with zinc demand projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% from 2025 to 2028, and copper demand expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 2.8% during the same period [3] - The company's total revenue for the years ending December 31 for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was approximately RMB 482.4 million, RMB 546.1 million, and RMB 301.4 million, respectively, with net profits showing fluctuations [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the overall upcycle in the non-ferrous metals industry, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.20 for 2025 based on annualized calculations [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the exploration, mining, and production of zinc, lead, and copper in Tibet, with significant mineral reserves [2] Market Demand - Zinc demand in China is driven by infrastructure and galvanizing industries, while lead demand is expected to recover due to the instability of recycled lead supply [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margins have varied, with gross profit for 2022, 2023, and 2024 being approximately RMB 174.6 million, RMB 217.7 million, and RMB 104.5 million, respectively [5] Growth Potential - The company is positioned to see rapid revenue growth due to increasing demand from downstream industries, with a projected PE ratio of approximately 20.47X based on the lower end of the IPO price range [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, indicating that the same-store sales decline is expected to reverse by the end of the year [1][4]. Core Insights - The same-store sales decline for the company's brands, particularly for the "Tai Er" brand, has been narrowing, showing signs of improvement due to operational adjustments [2][3]. - The "5.0 Fresh Model" for the "Tai Er" brand is being implemented, with significant changes in menu offerings and service, which are anticipated to enhance customer experience and increase average spending [3]. - The company has already modified 106 "Tai Er" stores to the new model and plans to exceed 200 by the end of 2025, which is expected to contribute to positive same-store sales growth [3]. Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the same-store average daily sales for "Tai Er," "Song Hot Pot," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" showed declines of -9.3%, -19.1%, and -14.8% respectively, which is an improvement from Q2's declines of -13.7%, -14.3%, and -18.5% [2]. - The turnover rates for "Tai Er," "Song Hot Pot," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, showing an increase from Q2 [2]. Operational Adjustments - The new model includes menu enhancements with the introduction of fresh beef and chicken dishes, which are expected to boost customer choices and average spending [3]. - Staffing adjustments have been made to accommodate the new cooking requirements, adding approximately 4-5 new positions in the kitchen [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the combination of operational changes and a low comparative base from the previous year will likely lead to a positive same-store sales growth by the end of the year [3][4]. - The company is also opening new model stores for "Jiu Mao Jiu" and "Song Hot Pot" in Q4, which will be monitored for further developments [4].

资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 2025 年 12 月 11 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储 FOMC 如期降息 25 个基点 美国众议院投票通过国防授权法案 美国 11 月预算赤字为 1730 亿美元 欧洲央行管委预言：世界或将从"美元独大"迈入"多极货币" IDC：预测 2026 年全球折叠手机市场爆发 同比增幅有望达 30% IMF 上调今年中国经济增速至 5% 国家统计局：11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7％，PPI 同比下降 2.2% 10 月国内市场手机出货量 3226.7 万部 同比增长 8.7% 甲骨文云业务销售逊于预期 盘后跌超 10% 阿里千问月活突破 3000 万 开放 AI PPT 等四项新功能 2 年期美债收益率跌 7.24 个基点报 3.538% 5 年期美债收益率跌 5.59 个基点报 3.731% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.51 个基点报 4.149% 纳斯达克综合指数 （日） 道琼斯工业平均指数（日） 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,0 ...