报 2025 年 5 月 6 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 告 美国 4 月就业人数增长超过预期 美国不愿豁免日本 10%的对等关税 美国提供 1000 美元津贴鼓励移民自愿离境 比强制驱逐"划 算" 特朗普：美国电影正在消亡 将对国外制作电影征收 100%的 关税 欧佩克代表：欧佩克+同意 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日 日本 3 月失业率为 2.5% 高于市场预期 印度提议对一定数量的美国汽车零部件和钢铁实行零关税 哈马斯：愿与以色列达成为期 5 年的停火协议 福特汽车公司预计关税将带来 15 亿美元损失 消息称英伟达正设计新特供版 AI 芯片 已向中国三家企业通 报 2 年期美债收益率涨 1.86 个基点报 3.8302% 5 年期美债收益率涨 2.1 个基点报 3.9376% 10 年期美债收益率涨 3.5 个基点报 4.3433% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 24.5 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of 20.15 HKD [5][6]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a reduction in cow inventory, leading to a stabilization of milk prices expected within the year. The domestic raw milk production is projected to decline by 2.8% year-on-year in 2024, marking the first decrease since 2018 [2][3][8]. - The management anticipates low single-digit revenue growth for 2025, focusing on improving profitability through cost reduction and efficiency measures. The operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to remain stable, with a target of improving the operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points annually over the next three years [10][11]. - The demand is slowly recovering, with expectations for revenue to improve gradually throughout 2025, particularly in the second quarter due to favorable market conditions and lower comparative bases from the previous year [4][11]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.33, 1.46, and 1.60 HKD respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17 times for 2025 [6][14]. - Revenue is projected to be 89.91 billion RMB in 2025, with a slight increase from 88.68 billion RMB in 2024, and a growth rate of 1.39% [7][18]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 39.7% for 2025, with net profit margin improving to 5.8% [7][18].

Key Points - The report highlights that the US trade deficit in goods expanded to a record $162 billion in March [3] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that discussions will take place with at least 17 partners in the coming weeks [3] - Concerns over tariffs are negatively impacting economic outlook, with US consumer confidence dropping to a near five-year low in April [3] - The report notes significant layoffs, with UPS becoming the first major company to conduct mass layoffs due to the trade war, affecting 20,000 employees [3] - Amazon was forced to halt plans to display tariff impacts on product pages, while Walmart has notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments [3] - The report also mentions that South Korea's credit card default rate reached a ten-year high in the first quarter of this year [3] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1403.00, up 2.18% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 17,461.32, up 0.55% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40,527.62, up 0.75% [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 5,560.83, up 0.58% [4] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was $64.05, down 2.75% [4] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.27, down 0.47% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 22,008.11, up 0.16% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,286.65, down 0.05% [4]

Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO price range is set between HKD 95.57 and HKD 113.12[1] - The total fundraising amount is estimated at HKD 1.73 billion, based on the median price[1] - The total number of shares available for subscription is 241.13 million, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering[1] Group 2: Company Overview - The company, known as "沪上阿姨," is a leading brand in the Chinese mid-priced tea beverage market, with a total of 9,176 stores expected by the end of 2024[2] - The majority of its stores (50.5%) are located in third-tier cities and below, operating primarily through a franchise model (99.7%)[2] Group 3: Market Trends - The mid-priced tea beverage segment accounted for 51.3% of the total market, which was valued at RMB 211.5 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 20.9% from 2023 to 2028[3] - The coffee market in China is also growing rapidly, with a market size of RMB 172.1 billion in 2023 and a projected CAGR of 19.8% from 2023 to 2028[3] Group 4: Financial Performance - In 2024, despite an increase of 1,387 stores, the company's revenue is expected to decline by 1.9% to RMB 3.285 billion, with a net profit decrease of 15.2% to RMB 329 million[4] - The company's net profit margin is projected to decrease by 1.6% to 10.0%[4]

Key Points - The report highlights the potential for significant changes in U.S.-China trade relations, with Trump suggesting a "substantial reduction" in tariffs on Chinese goods, which could impact various industries including automotive manufacturing [4] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates increasing economic uncertainty, with some regions experiencing a notable deterioration in economic outlook [4] - The U.S. is facing a substantial maturity pressure in its debt market, with over $10 trillion in bonds set to mature this year, which could influence interest rates and market stability [4] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the U.S. in April stands at 50.7, exceeding expectations of 49.1, indicating a slight expansion in manufacturing activity [4] - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI is reported at 48.7, slightly above the expected 47.5, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4] - The European Union has imposed fines totaling €700 million on Apple and Meta, reflecting ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the tech sector [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that an increase in tariffs in 2025 could raise global public debt as a percentage of GDP by 2.8 percentage points, indicating potential long-term economic implications [4] - Japanese tire manufacturer Sumitomo Rubber has announced price increases of up to 25% due to tariff pressures, showcasing the direct impact of trade policies on consumer prices [4] - U.S. Treasury yields have seen slight increases, with the 2-year yield rising by 5.8 basis points to 3.8791%, the 5-year yield up by 5.64 basis points to 4.0383%, and the 10-year yield increasing by 0.19 basis points to 4.3929%, reflecting market reactions to economic data and policy expectations [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.US) with a target price of $15.80, indicating a potential upside of 20.2% from the current price of $13.14 [1][6][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved robust performance in 2024, with total revenue of 28.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Net profit reached 7.11 billion RMB, up 36.2%, while adjusted net profit was 8.14 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 30.7% [4][8]. - The integration of AI technology into the music experience is expected to drive a second growth curve for the business, enhancing user engagement and creating new commercial opportunities [5][9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on AI technology as a key driver for enhancing its competitive edge in the digital music sector, leading to improved user experience and content ecosystem [6][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the online music service revenue was 20.23 billion RMB, growing by 16.1%, with subscription revenue reaching 15.23 billion RMB, a 25.9% increase. The number of paid users grew to 121 million, a 13.4% increase [8]. - The sales gross margin improved from 35.3% in 2023 to 42.3% in 2024, driven by strong growth in subscription and advertising revenues [4][8]. - The report projects continued revenue growth, with expected revenues of 31.08 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.43% [7]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Tencent with a 47.80% stake and Spotify with 4.12% [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report values the online music business at 7 times price-to-sales (PS) and the social entertainment business at 6 times price-to-earnings (PE), supporting the target price of $15.80 [6][11].

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing discussions regarding the reduction of U.S. drug prices to international levels, indicating potential shifts in healthcare policy [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly downgraded its economic growth forecast for the United States, suggesting a more cautious outlook for the economy [4] - Major e-commerce platforms in China, including Pinduoduo, Taobao, Douyin, Kuaishou, and JD.com, are set to eliminate the "refund only" policy, which may impact consumer behavior and sales dynamics [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.61% to 1261.00, reflecting a positive trend in shipping costs [5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.71% to 16300.42, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.66% to 39186.98, indicating strong performance in U.S. equity markets [5] - The price of ICE Brent crude oil rose by 2.35% to $67.82, suggesting upward pressure on energy prices [5] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 98.35, indicating no significant fluctuations in currency strength [5] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 0.78% to 21562.32, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25% to 3299.76, reflecting positive sentiment in Asian markets [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the call from former President Trump for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy [4] - A new tariff is proposed by the U.S. on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries, which may impact the renewable energy sector [4] - A survey reveals that the number of global investors intending to reduce their U.S. stock holdings has reached the highest level since 2001, suggesting growing concerns about the U.S. equity market [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1261.00, up by 1.61%, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 15870.90, down by 2.55%, reflecting a decline in technology stocks [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 38170.41, down by 2.48%, showing a broader market downturn [5] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 5158.20, down by 2.36%, indicating a significant drop in the U.S. stock market [5] - The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 2.19% to $66.47, reflecting volatility in the energy market [5] - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) was 7.29, down by 0.22% [5] Industry Developments - The Chinese government is supporting the development of smart connected vehicles and the establishment of civilian drone testing bases, indicating a push towards innovation in the automotive and aerospace sectors [4] - The Sichuan Development and Reform Commission issued a secondary warning regarding the excessive decline in pig prices, highlighting concerns in the agricultural sector [4] - The approval of 118 domestic online games in April suggests a recovery in the gaming industry, which may present investment opportunities [4] - CATL announced the mass production of its first sodium-ion battery product, "Sodium New," in June, indicating advancements in battery technology [4]

Key Points - The report highlights that the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.8% to 2.2% by the WTO, indicating the negative impact of trade wars on the overall economy [1] - In March, China's retail sales surged, reflecting a strong consumer demand [1] - The report notes that China's industrial added value for March increased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating robust industrial activity [1] - The report mentions that the sales price decline of commercial residential properties in various Chinese cities has continued to narrow [1] - The report indicates that the U.S. retail sales saw a significant increase in March, suggesting a rebound in consumer spending [1] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 1.48% to 1263.00, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 3.07% to 16307.16 [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.73% to 39669.39, and the S&P 500 decreased by 2.24% to 5275.70 [2] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 2.15% to 66.06, while the London gold spot price increased by 3.49% to 3342.48 [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 1.91% to 21056.98, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.55% to 7779.01 [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.26% to 3276.00, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 1.10% to 1878.92 [2]

Market Trends - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.22 basis points to 3.8407%[2] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.98 basis points to 3.9821%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 4.09 basis points to 4.3311%[2] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1282.00, up by 0.63%[4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 16823.17, down by 0.05%[4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40368.96, down by 0.38%[4] - The S&P 500 closed at 5396.63, down by 0.17%[4] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.31, up by 0.17%[4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21466.27, up by 0.23%[4]