2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 【新股资讯】 ➢ 正力新能（3677.HK）IPO 申购指南：建议谨慎申购 公司于中国动力电池制造商中占有 1.8%的市场份额，排名第九。2021~2024 年，公司收入分别 为 14.99、32.9、41.6 和 51.3 亿元人民币，净利润分别为-4.02、-17.2、-5.9 和 0.91 亿元。公 司前期出现亏损主要是因为资本开始和 WM 客户事件。 【近期研报】 ➢ 4 月核心荐股-20250402 更新 【精选个股】 新调入个股 调出个股 ❖ 康龙化成（3759.HK） 如需浏览报告全文，请联系您的客户经理。 ➢ 宏观数据即时点评：美国政府宣布加征关税，最终实施力度或有减弱 通常来说，特朗普政府的关税政策通常最终实施力度会较宣布时有所减弱，因此本次关税政策虽 然来势汹汹，但最终实施力度仍然取决于谈判情况，特别是"对等关税"税率存有一定的博弈空 间。在对华关税方面，据乘联会披露的 2024 年出口数据，2024 年我国对美国汽车出口销量 11.6 万台，仅占 2024 年我国汽车出口总量的 1.8%，新增关税措施影响相对较小。而纺织服装 以及电子产品等其他产业相对 ...

上周港股股指期货价格延续回落趋势，至周末 25 年 4 月份恒指期货价格变 化-1.01%，科技指数期货涨幅-2.19%；当周恒指期货持仓变化 3.21%，基差 3.40 点；科技指数持仓量变化 7.73%；基差-16.47 点。美股股指期货方面， 上周三大股指期货价格下跌，至周末时道指期货价格变化-1.11%，标指和 纳指 100 期货价格变化分别为-1.67%和-2.52%。当周道指期货持仓变化- 1.44%，纳指期货持仓变化 4.15%；三大股指的期货中道指期货基差为 130.10 点较前周变化-214.55 点，纳指 100 期货基差 79.60 点，较前周变化 -137.18 点。 ➢ 市场外部环境： | 周报 | 港股调整，海外扰动或影响本周港股表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指期货 | 星期一 | 2025-04-01 | ➢ 市场回顾： 国内主要城市住房销售情况跟踪：上周二手房销售同比回升。 央行最新动向：美联储对降息的最新表态偏向谨慎，日本央行或继续加息。 部分国内外重要新闻：美国方面公布最新 PCE 和密歇根大学经济预测，特 朗普或在 4 月 2 日起加征关税 ...

Group 1: 康臣药业 (CKD) - The company achieved sales revenue of 1.996 billion RMB in the CKD sector, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% from 1.741 billion RMB in 2023, driven by its core products, Urine Detox and Yishen Huashi Granules [1] - Sales revenue from Yishen Huashi Granules grew by 27.2% year-on-year [1] - The company successfully covered 43,000 terminal medical institutions and 290,000 pharmacies [1] Group 2: 宜明昂科-B (IMM01) - The core product IMM01 is an innovative targeted CD47 molecule, one of only two companies globally to observe complete remission in clinical trials with good tolerability and safety [1] - IMM01 is the first SIRPα-Fc fusion protein to enter clinical stages in China, activating macrophages through a dual mechanism [1] - Currently, three indications are in Phase III clinical trials, placing the company at a global leading position in research and development [1] Group 3: 布鲁可 - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 941 million RMB, 1.381 billion RMB, and 1.991 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x, indicating strong market confidence in its profit growth [2] - Despite challenges in the global toy industry, the company successfully transitioned from a dark horse to an industry leader through a three-engine strategy of "IP + Channels + Globalization" [2] - The company’s product design and assembly experience are positioned in the global leading tier, with significant potential for market penetration in lower-tier markets and ongoing expansion of IP resources [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, indicating a strong growth potential driven by its product mix and market strategies [1][3][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.241 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155.6%, and an adjusted annual profit of RMB 585 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 702.1% [1] - The sales revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9%, indicating a strategic shift towards building character toys, which generated sales of RMB 2.201 billion [1][3] - The company has invested RMB 192 million in R&D, accounting for 8.6% of total revenue, highlighting its commitment to product innovation [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 52.6%, showcasing enhanced supply chain efficiency and product structure optimization [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to product mix optimization and channel penetration strategies, effectively reaching consumers across various demographics and price ranges [3][4] - The company plans to introduce 800-1000 new SKUs and over 300 new products in 2025, further enhancing its product offerings [4] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its IP matrix, currently holding nearly 50 licensed IPs and planning to add over 25 more, including popular franchises like Star Wars and Pokémon [4][5] - Domestic market penetration is supported by over 450 distributors, while international expansion is achieved through brand partnerships and localization strategies, with overseas sales revenue increasing by 518.2% [1][4] Future Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on developing female-oriented products to address specific market needs, including ease of assembly and aesthetic appeal [5] - Forecasts indicate net profits of RMB 941 million, RMB 1.381 billion, and RMB 1.991 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x, reflecting strong market confidence in sustained profitability [6]

2025 年 3 月 27 日星期四 【债券快讯】 【市场综述】 昨日港股各种重要指数全部上涨。截至 3 月 26 日，恒生指数上涨 0.6%，报收 23483.32 点。其 中大型股、中型股和小型股的涨跌幅分别为 0.66%、1.08%和 0.35%；与此同时，中资企业指数 和科技指数的涨跌幅度分别达到 0.07%和 1.01%。从行业来看，多数行业出现上涨：其中非必需 性消费和资讯科技业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别为 1.5%和 1%；公用事业和必需性消费市场走势 较弱，涨跌幅分别为-0.53%和-1.09%。内地股市方面，截至 3 月 26 日，上证指数收盘价为 3368.7 点，下跌 0.04%；深证综指收盘价为 2046.12 点，上涨 0.39%。陆港股通方面，截至 3 月 26 日，当日陆股通交易暂停;当日沪市港股通南下资金净流入 47.5 亿元，深市港股通南下净 流入为 30.79 亿元，共计港股通资金净流入 78.29 亿元。 美国三大股指集体下跌：截至 3 月 26 日，道琼斯工业指数报收 42454.79 点，较前一个交易日 下跌 0.31%；标普 500 指数报收 5712.2 点，较前一 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline across major indices, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 2.35% to close at 23344.25 points as of March 25 [2] - The performance of large, medium, and small-cap stocks showed declines of -2.36%, -2.17%, and -1.7% respectively, while the China Enterprises Index and Technology Index dropped by -1.46% and -3.82% [2] - In the mainland market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369.98 points, unchanged, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.57% to 2038.17 points [2] Bond Market - Several bonds were issued in the offshore Chinese bond market on March 25, including Far East Horizon's proposed issuance of a USD-denominated senior unsecured bond with an initial guidance of T+255bps [4] - Jiangmen High-tech Industrial Park plans to issue a RMB-denominated senior unsecured bond with an initial guidance of 4.3% [4] - MTR Corporation intends to issue three USD-denominated senior bonds with maturities of 5, 10, and 30 years, with initial guidance of T5+75bps, T10+85bps, and T30+100bps respectively [4] Futures Market - The Hang Seng Futures Index closed at 29931.01 points, down by 2.58% [5] - London gold closed at USD 3019.82 per ounce, up by 0.28%, while Brent crude oil closed at USD 73.17 per barrel, up by 0.23% [5] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.26, appreciating by 0.17% [5] Strong Performing Stocks - Notable stocks with strong performance included: - Jinxin Fertility (1951.HK) with a 3-day increase of 6.91% closing at 3.25 [6] - Nissin Foods (1475.HK) with a 3-day increase of 5.05% closing at 6.03 [6] - Reading Group (2385.HK) with a 3-day increase of 4.84% closing at 7.15 [6] - Sea Group (1308.HK) with a 3-day increase of 4.15% closing at 20.35 [6] Economic Data - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 18271.86 points, up by 0.46%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42587.50 points, up by 0.01% [7] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23344.25 points, down by 2.35%, and the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged at 3369.98 points [7] - The USD Index was reported at 104.21, down by 0.09% [7]

Group 1: Company Analysis - The core viewpoint of the report on China Resources Beer (291.HK) emphasizes the implementation of the "Three Precision" strategy and the ongoing advancement of high-end development, supported by national policies, recovery of consumption scenarios, and optimized inventory management [1] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 1.64, 1.79, and 1.96 CNY respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's operational performance and profitability [1] - The report highlights the company's strategic foresight and high execution capability, along with strong organizational management, leading to a target price of 35.0 HKD per share, corresponding to a 20 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.13% last week, while maintaining relatively high trading volumes [2] - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to increased uncertainty in economic policies, but the overall market sentiment in Hong Kong remains resilient [2] - The offshore bond market saw a slight decrease in issuance, with 12 bonds issued totaling approximately 22.04 billion USD, primarily from the urban investment sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment rating for Longfa Group with a BBB rating from Fitch and a Baa2 rating from Moody's [3]. Core Insights - The offshore bond issuance in the primary market has decreased, with only 12 bonds issued last week totaling approximately 2.62 billion USD, primarily from the urban investment sector [1]. - The high-yield bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds in the secondary market, with the Markit iBoxx index for Chinese USD bonds rising by 0.05% last week [1]. Summary by Sections Primary Market - Last week, the primary market saw a total of 12 bonds issued, amounting to around 2.62 billion USD, with a significant issuance from the urban investment sector [1]. - Notably, the Shouhua Group issued a bond worth 450 million USD with a coupon rate of 7.15%, which was oversubscribed by more than 10 times [1]. Secondary Market - The secondary market showed a slight increase in returns, with the investment-grade return index rising by 0.04% and the high-yield return index increasing by 0.08% [1]. Market Overview - As of March 18, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.46%, with all major sectors showing positive performance, particularly non-essential consumer goods and materials [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3429.76 points, up by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.49% to 2122.66 points [5].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the Hong Kong technology sector is currently positive, with a notable increase in the Hang Seng Index by 7.04% over the past week, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the recent surge in Hong Kong technology stocks is driven by market sentiment, with significant valuation increases for related stocks. However, the report cautions that the degree of future positive expectations being met will be crucial for sustaining this momentum [1] - The report emphasizes that despite uncertainties in the global environment, the Hong Kong market still has strong support from recent developments, such as the introduction of the AI model deepseek, which has significantly boosted investor confidence [1] Group 2 - In the offshore bond market, there has been a rebound in primary market issuances, with 11 new bonds issued totaling $1.56 billion, primarily in the urban investment sector. Notably, Greentown China issued a $350 million bond with a coupon rate of 8.45%, which was the largest single issuance of the week [2] - The secondary market performance shows that high-yield bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds, with the Markit iBoxx index for high-yield bonds rising by 0.85% while the investment-grade index increased by 0.25% [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the maternal and infant industry, particularly due to the implementation of new parenting subsidy policies which are expected to boost infant-related stocks [1]. Core Insights - The maternal and infant market has faced challenges due to declining birth rates and weak consumer spending, with the sales of infant formula experiencing a 13.9% decline in 2023 [1]. - A rise in birth rates in the current year is anticipated to drive consumption in the following years, suggesting a potential recovery in the maternal and infant market [1]. - Various policies aimed at enhancing birth willingness are expected to further stimulate consumer demand in the maternal and infant sector [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The maternal and infant market has been negatively impacted by a continuous decline in birth rates and sluggish consumption [1]. - The infant formula market has seen a significant contraction, with a reported 13.9% decrease in sales across all channels in 2023 [1]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a potential recovery in the maternal and infant market in the coming years, driven by an increase in birth rates and supportive government policies [1]. - The implementation of new policies aimed at increasing birth rates is expected to create a more favorable environment for consumer spending in the maternal and infant sector [1].