Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 3.06 per share, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HKD 2.57 [5][10]. Core Insights - Weak terminal demand is putting pressure on photovoltaic glass prices, which have declined significantly in recent weeks. The average price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass fell from HKD 13-13.5 per square meter to below HKD 12, while 3.2mm glass prices dropped from HKD 22-22.5 to below HKD 21. As of early June, inventory days reached 29.72, indicating substantial inventory pressure. The industry's gross margin has hit a record low of approximately -9.47% due to multiple factors including the end of the 430/531 rush, declining demand, and inventory pressure [2][7][8]. - The company plans to increase its nominal capacity to 32,200 tons per day by the end of 2024, with actual production capacity at 23,200 tons per day. However, the planned addition of 4,000 tons in 2025 may be delayed due to current market conditions, which could pressure profitability in 2025. The expectation is for supply-demand improvement and a return to rational pricing in 2025 [3][8]. - The company intends to issue a REIT for its solar power plants, which will help improve cash flow by locking in returns from high-subsidy projects. This REIT model will also mitigate future risks associated with electricity price fluctuations [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 24,164 million in FY2023 to RMB 21,921 million in FY2024, before recovering to RMB 22,702 million in FY2025. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop sharply from RMB 3,843 million in FY2023 to RMB 1,008 million in FY2024, before rebounding to RMB 2,101 million in FY2025 [6][14]. - The basic earnings per share are forecasted to decrease from 43.17 cents in FY2023 to 11.27 cents in FY2024, then increase to 23.15 cents in FY2025. The price-to-earnings ratio at the current price of HKD 2.57 is estimated at 20.9 for FY2024 and 10.2 for FY2025 [6][14]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the photovoltaic glass industry, benefiting from supply chain management, economies of scale, and technological advantages. This positions the company to further differentiate its profitability from second and third-tier competitors [7][8].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US May CPI year-on-year is at 2.4%, which is lower than expected [4] - The US recorded a record high in tariff revenue for May, contributing to a narrowing deficit for the month [4] - The report mentions significant developments in the AI sector, including a new AI model from ByteDance with a price drop of 63% [4] - Tesla is set to launch an autonomous taxi service on June 22 [4] - Oracle's performance exceeded expectations, although its cloud infrastructure slightly missed forecasts [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1680.00, down 0.65% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19615.88, down 0.50% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42865.77, unchanged [5] - The S&P 500 closed at 6022.24, down 0.27% [5] - The ICE Brent Crude closed at $70.78, up 5.85% [5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate (CFETS) was 7.19, down 0.02% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24366.94, up 0.84% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3402.32, up 0.52% [5]

Core Insights - The commitment from major Chinese automotive companies to unify supplier payment terms to 60 days aims to enhance liquidity and reduce financial pressure within the supply chain [1][2] - The initiative reflects a shift in the automotive industry towards healthier competition, moving away from price wars to a more sustainable competitive environment [3] - Overall profitability pressures in the automotive sector are expected to ease, with leading companies benefiting the most from this collaborative effort [4] Summary by Sections Event - Major automotive companies in China, including FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor, and BYD, have announced a unified commitment to shorten supplier payment terms to 60 days [1] Commentary - Shortening payment terms is expected to improve supply chain liquidity and alleviate financial stress for suppliers. Specific measures include enhancing mechanisms for payment supervision, optimizing internal processes for efficiency, and leveraging technology for real-time monitoring of payment processes [2] - The automotive industry is transitioning from simple price competition to a more constructive competitive landscape, as highlighted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' call for fair competition and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's stance against disorderly price wars [3] - The collaborative effort among these nine automotive companies is seen as a positive response to regulatory bodies, fostering a healthier competitive atmosphere in the industry [3] Industry Outlook - The collective actions of these leading automotive firms are anticipated to reduce overall profitability pressures across the industry, with a particular emphasis on the competitive advantages of leading companies not just in pricing but also in contributing to a sustainable industry ecosystem [4] - Companies such as BYD, Leap Motor, Geely, and Li Auto are recommended for active monitoring due to their potential benefits from these industry changes [4]

Group 1: Market Trends - OPEC Secretary-General predicts strong growth in oil demand over the next 25 years[4] - World Bank lowers global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%[4] - Fitch downgrades outlook for global sovereign ratings to "deteriorating"[4] Group 2: Economic Data - Nasdaq index closed at 19,714.99, up 0.63%[6] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,866.87, up 0.25%[6] - S&P 500 closed at 6,038.81, up 0.55%[6] - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.3 basis points to 4.016%[4] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 4.470%[4] Group 3: Corporate Developments - OpenAI's annual recurring revenue surpasses $10 billion[4] - TSMC reported May revenue of NT$320.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%[4] - Tencent Music plans to acquire Himalaya Holdings[4]

2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查：5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署：前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆，同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作，为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...

买入 全面升级为全栈 AI 产品和服务商，探索数字货币和 RWA 中国软件国际（354.HK） 2025-6-9 星期一 【投资要点】 ➢ 2024 年收入和利润相对稳定，AIGC 新业务成增长亮点 2024 全年公司实现收入 169.5 亿元人民币（-1.0%），归母净利润 5.1 亿元 人民币（-28.1%）。H2 财务环比回升，显示新业务拉动初现。全年经营活 动现金流净额 6.03 亿元，同比下降 16.3%。 ➢ 全栈 AIGC 能力体系加速成型，战略转型进入规模化落地阶段 公司加快 AIGC 战略落地，构建以"模型工场 2.0"和"Agent 工厂"为核 心的一体化能力体系，推动 AI 产品在多个行业场景中规模化复制，标志公 司由技术投入迈向商业化阶段。2024 年"全栈 AI 产品及服务"收入达人民 币 9.57 亿元，占集团总收入的 5.6%。其中，下半年该板块收入环比大幅上 升 135.44%，成为推动集团业绩触底反弹的关键动力之一。 ➢ 持续深化与华为生态合作，推动信创产品化落地 公司深化与华为合作，拓展 KaihongOS 在智能终端与开发工具链应用，并 完成超 200 个华为云 CTSP ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 1.30 per share, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 1.06 [6][12]. Core Insights - The company plans to list a solar power plant REIT, which will activate existing assets and alleviate cash flow pressure due to delayed subsidies. This move is expected to lower financial leverage and financing costs through equity financing [3][9]. - Recent electricity pricing policies are anticipated to stabilize the revenue from existing projects, while green electricity direct connection initiatives will promote local consumption of renewable energy [4][10]. - The company's financing costs are on a downward trend, with a significant shift from HKD loans to lower-interest RMB loans, expected to further decrease to 3% by 2025. The company has sufficient power station reserves for acquisition [5][11]. Financial Summary - For FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 2,281 million, with a projected increase to RMB 2,500 million in FY2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.4% [7][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from RMB 791 million in FY2024 to RMB 940 million in FY2025, marking an 18.9% increase [7][18]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be 11.23 cents in FY2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8.6 at the current price [7][18].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing market expectations [3] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts later this year are discussed, with comments from Fed officials indicating a possibility of a rate reduction [3] - A Harvard report suggests that China's biotechnology sector is expected to surpass that of the U.S. [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1633.00, up by 0.43% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,529.95, increasing by 1.20% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,762.87, rising by 1.05% [4] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,000.36, up by 1.03% [4] - The price of ICE Brent crude oil was $66.65, an increase of 2.00% [4] - The U.S. dollar index stood at 99.20, up by 0.46% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,792.54, down by 0.48% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,385.36, slightly up by 0.04% [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the US import total for April, amounting to $350.99 billion, which represents a month-over-month decrease of 16.3% [4] - The US initial jobless claims for the previous week were recorded at 247,000, exceeding market expectations [4] - The European Central Bank has lowered three key interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations [4] - Several automotive companies are considering relocating parts of their production to China [4] - China's Caixin Services PMI for May increased to 51.1, up by 0.4 percentage points from April [4] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in China for May reached 1.93 million units, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 13% [4] - Circle, a stablecoin company, saw its stock rise by 167.2% on its IPO debut [4] - Procter & Gamble announced a layoff of 7,000 employees [4] - The wholesale price of Moutai has dropped below 2,000 yuan in some regions [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1489.00, up by 4.13% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,298.45, down by 0.83% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,319.74, down by 0.25% [5] - The S&P 500 closed at 5,939.30, down by 0.53% [5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate (CFETS) was 7.18, down by 0.10% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,906.97, up by 1.07% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,384.10, up by 0.23% [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.66 per share, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HKD 4.30 [6][11]. Core Views - The company reported a net loss of RMB 263.01 million in Q1 2025, with multiple negative factors already released, including operational losses and significant asset impairments. Support from TBEA Group and proactive measures like accounts receivable factoring are expected to help the company navigate through this challenging period [3][8]. - The supply-demand balance for polysilicon is improving slowly, with 2025 performance likely to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand. However, the report notes that the downside for polysilicon prices is limited at this stage [4][9]. - The company's value is considered severely underestimated when accounting for its solar and wind power station construction and operational assets. The revenue composition for 2024 shows polysilicon contributing 37.4%, while wind and solar projects contribute 35.9% and 11.3%, respectively [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 30,752 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 21,213 million in FY2024, and further to RMB 20,518 million in FY2025, reflecting a decrease of 18.1% and 31.0% respectively. A return to growth is anticipated in FY2026 with revenues projected at RMB 21,898 million [7][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be negative in FY2024 and FY2025, with losses of RMB 3,905 million and RMB 875 million, respectively. A recovery is expected in FY2026 with a net profit of RMB 1,098 million [7][14]. Market Conditions - As of June 4, 2025, the average transaction prices for n-type and p-type polysilicon are reported at RMB 37,500 per ton and RMB 31,300 per ton, respectively. The industry is currently operating under a self-discipline framework, with production quotas limiting significant fluctuations in output [4][9]. Asset Valuation - The report emphasizes that the company's operational solar and wind power assets, totaling approximately 3.5 GW, significantly contribute to its overall value, which is not fully reflected in the current market price [5][10].