1 证 2025 年 7 月 15 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 券 研 究 报 告 美国商务部对无人机和多晶硅进口启动 232 调查 特朗普威胁对俄罗斯征收 100%的二级关税 特朗普将宣布 700 亿美元 AI 和能源投资，贝莱德等公司的 高管将亲临现场 欧盟准备对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税 日本参议院选举前引发财政忧虑 日债收益率逼近历史高位 6 月金融数据：M2 增速回升，社融增量 4.2 万亿元 中国 6 月稀土出口量升至 2009 年以来最高水平 中国 6 月大豆进口创历年同期新高 巴西供应大增 上半年新注册登记新能源汽车 562.2 万辆 创历史新高 扎克伯格：Meta 将在 AI 领域投资数千亿美元 2 年期美债收益率涨 0.99 个基点报 3.896% 5 年期美债收益率涨 1.58 个基点报 3.985% 10 年期美债收益率涨 2.40 个基点报 4.433% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌( ...

Key Points - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff revenue has exceeded 100 billion for the first time this fiscal year, with a year-on-year increase of 301% [4] - The report mentions that the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee has approved 500 million in aid to Ukraine [4] - The report notes that the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has extended the suspension of countermeasures against U.S. tariffs until early August [4] - Canada has postponed its plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. aluminum and steel [4] - The report indicates that China's natural uranium production has achieved a breakthrough with the successful production of its first uranium [4] - It is projected that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's automobile export scale may reach its peak [4] - The report states that the new housing market in first-tier cities is becoming increasingly active [4] - Meituan's instant retail order volume has reached a new high [4] - Elon Musk's xAI is planning a new round of financing, with a target valuation soaring to 200 billion [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1663.00, up 13.52% [5] - CME Bitcoin futures closed at 118,140.00, up 3.75% [5] - ICE Brent crude oil closed at 70.63, up 2.90% [5] - The London gold spot price closed at 3354.75, up 0.95% [5] - The U.S. dollar index closed at 97.87, up 0.29% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24139.57, up 0.46% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3510.18, up 0.01% [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 6.89, indicating a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 5.43 [7]. Core Insights - The company, 卓越教育集团 (Excellence Education Group), is a leading player in the K12 education sector in South China, focusing on comprehensive growth services for children. The company has successfully transitioned to quality education, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the coming years [4][6]. - The K12 education market in Guangdong is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to 7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by strong demand for quality non-subject education [5]. - The company has a strong brand reputation and teaching capabilities, with a high retention rate of nearly 80% for summer courses in Guangzhou. The introduction of AI-driven courses aligns with national trends, further enhancing its market position [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997 and listed in 2018, the company has shifted its focus from traditional subject education to quality education, particularly after the "double reduction" policy in 2021. The revenue from quality education is expected to account for 64.74% of total revenue by 2024 [16][21]. Industry Analysis - The "double reduction" policy has led to a significant reduction in the number of K9 subject training institutions, with a decrease of 96% in offline institutions. This has created opportunities for quality education providers [43][44]. - The demand for quality education remains strong, with increasing enrollment rates in high schools and a growing emphasis on comprehensive student development [48]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 19.95 billion, HKD 23.81 billion, and HKD 28.11 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.25 billion, HKD 3.82 billion, and HKD 4.46 billion, reflecting robust growth rates [7][8].

2025 年 7 月 11 日星期五 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美国上周初请失业金人数为 22.7 万 低于预期 特朗普会见非洲五国总统 谈矿产和移民接收 美联储穆萨莱姆：稳定币可能成为支付的重要组成部分 OPEC+代表：OPEC+讨论从 10 月起暂停增产 财政部：对于 4500 万元人民币以上的医疗器械政府采购项 目 应当排除欧盟企业参与 2025 年退休人员养老金调整：上调 2% 光伏玻璃减产信号增强 国内稀土双巨头宣布提价 台积电 6 月销售额同比增 26.9％ 马斯克旗下 xAI 正式发布旗舰大模型 Grok 4 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.13 个基点报 3.870% 5 年期美债收益率涨 3.15 个基点报 3.932% 10 年期美债收益率涨 1.78 个基点报 4.348% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $6.40, representing a potential upside of 36.4% from the current price of $4.69 [1][9][17]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with Q1 2025 revenue growing by 36.1% year-over-year and 9.2% quarter-over-quarter. The net loss for the first quarter was reduced to 28.11 million RMB, down 63.17% from the previous year [6][12][11]. - The company is refocusing on AI-enhanced productivity tools, leading to a 46% increase in internet business revenue. Products like "Bao Xiaomi" have demonstrated competitive advantages in multi-modal interaction and industry-specific adaptability [13][14]. - The robotics business is approaching breakeven, with Q1 revenue reaching 259 million RMB, a 12.4% year-over-year increase. The company is employing a dual strategy of internal development and acquisitions to drive growth in this sector [15][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.59 billion RMB, with a notable improvement in profitability metrics. The gross margin for the internet business increased to 15.5%, up from 7.9% in the previous year [11][14]. - The company has a strong cash position, holding $230 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 2025, providing a solid safety margin for future strategic initiatives [12][6]. Business Strategy - The company is strategically shifting towards AI applications, enhancing its product offerings in the internet and robotics sectors. This includes expanding the use of AI in customer service, content moderation, and data annotation [14][15]. - The company has signed strategic partnerships with several international tech firms, particularly in the smart hardware domain, which is expected to enhance market penetration and drive future growth [17][9]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI productivity tools and smart hardware, aligning its product development with global trends in remote work and automation [14][13]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge in the AI tool market, leveraging its established technology and product design to meet the needs of small and medium enterprises [14][15].

2025 年 7 月 10 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储纪要：多数官员认为关税可能持续推高通胀，少数官 员愿意在下次会议上考虑降息 特朗普：利率至少高了 3 个百分点 特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函 巴西面临 50%的关税 特朗普：金砖国家将"很快"面临 10%的额外关税 特朗普政府加大施压哈佛面临失去认证资格风险 美商务部长称拟于 8 月初与中方会谈 中国 6 月 CPI 同比 0.1% PPI 同比-4.3% 6 月底港股总市值 42.7 万亿港元 同比升 33% 消息称硅片厂商昨日下午普遍调高报价 OpenAI 即将推出 AI 浏览器 2 年期美债收益率跌 5.39 个基点报 3.839% 5 年期美债收益率跌 6.82 个基点报 3.901% 10 年期美债收益率跌 7.12 个基点报 4.330% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, recommending active attention to its developments [4]. Core Insights - The company is actively investing in multiple leading robotics enterprises, aiming to create a comprehensive service provider across the entire industry chain [1][4]. - The investment portfolio includes key assets in robotics, with a reported return exceeding 3 times as of June 2025 [2]. - The company is facilitating the acceleration of robotics applications through strategic partnerships and ecosystem development, enhancing the integration of robotics technology into urban and public services [3]. - A global first "robotics comprehensive experience store" is being established to provide full-cycle services to robotics companies, supporting their market expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Activities - The company has made additional investments in several robotics firms, including Xinhai Map and others, following previous investments [1]. - The investment portfolio encompasses high-quality companies across various advanced fields such as embodied intelligence, industrial robotics, medical robotics, and low-altitude aircraft [2]. Industry Collaboration - The company has signed agreements with over 50 robotics firms to promote applications in key areas like smart healthcare and urban operations, which will help in the practical deployment of robotics technologies [3]. Service Development - The establishment of the "robotics comprehensive experience store" aims to provide diverse support for robotics companies, including sales representation and supply chain assistance, facilitating their entry into broader markets [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential impact of Trump's proposed 50% tariff on imported copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, effective from August 1, which could significantly affect related industries and market dynamics [4] - The Australian central bank's unexpected decision to maintain interest rates could influence investment strategies and economic forecasts in the region [4] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs saw inflows of $38 billion in the first half of the year, setting a record for average daily trading volume [4] - The new energy passenger vehicle market in China recorded retail sales of 1.111 million units in June, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [4] - SpaceX achieved an estimated valuation of approximately $400 billion during a stock sale, indicating strong investor confidence in the company [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1436.00, remaining unchanged [5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 20418.46, up by 0.03%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.37% to 44240.76 [5] - Crude oil (ICE) was priced at $70.03, reflecting a 0.65% increase, while the London gold spot price fell by 1.07% to $3300.64 [5] - The US dollar index closed at 97.49, down by 0.06% against the Chinese yuan, which was priced at 7.17, a decrease of 0.02% [5] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.09% to 24148.07, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.84% to 5325.95 [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent announcement by President Trump regarding the imposition of tariffs on imports from 14 countries, which has increased clarity in the textile and apparel industry [1] - Vietnam is positioned favorably with the lowest tariff rate of 20% among the listed countries, making it more attractive for clients and manufacturers [3][5] - The report anticipates that long-term tariff costs will likely be passed on to consumers, impacting profit margins for brands and supply chain entities [3][4] Summary by Sections Tariff Announcement - On July 7, President Trump announced tariffs on imports from various countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country [1] - The tariffs on Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are set at 20%, which is significantly lower than those imposed on other countries [3] Industry Impact - Vietnam's competitive tariff rate is expected to attract more orders for manufacturing companies, especially those with established production capacities [3][5] - The report notes that existing manufacturers in Vietnam will have a competitive edge due to the increasing costs and difficulties associated with expanding production capacity [3] Future Considerations - There is uncertainty regarding the tariff levels for major manufacturing countries like China, Sri Lanka, and India, which could affect the overall market dynamics [3][4] - Companies like NIKE have already begun to raise prices in North America to mitigate the impact of tariffs, indicating a trend that may continue across the industry [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with established production capabilities in Vietnam, such as Superwin International Holdings (2111.HK), Crystal International (2232.HK), and Nanshan Holdings (1982.HK), with a recommendation for Shenzhou International (2313.HK) [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.04 basis points to 3.890% and the 5-year yield increasing by 2.45 basis points to 3.955% [1][2] - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September [1] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3.3 trillion by the end of June [1] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1436.00, up 0.14%, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 0.92% to 20412.52 [4] - The price of ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.90% to $69.60, and the U.S. dollar index increased by 0.58% to 97.55 [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23887.83, down 0.12%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, up 0.02% [4] Industry Developments - The report mentions that four departments aim to have over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [3] - Domestic sales of various excavators reached 18,804 units in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [3] - Longxin Storage has initiated its IPO counseling [3]