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国元证券晨会纪要-20260107
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-01-07 01:48
Group 1 - The report highlights the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the UK and France, indicating a commitment to deploy troops to Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached with Russia [1] - The central bank plans to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to enhance efficiency in 2026 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will introduce over 30 national standards in the data sector in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Tencent has been crowned the global mobile game publisher champion for December [1] - xAI has exceeded its financing target, raising $20 billion, with Nvidia being one of the strategic investors [1] - OpenAI has launched a household robot priced at $20,000 [1] Group 3 - The report provides various economic data, including the Baltic Dry Index at 1851.00, down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Index at 23547.17, up 0.65% [2] - The report notes the closing prices of significant indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 49462.08, up 0.99%, and the S&P 500 at 6944.82, up 0.62% [2] - The report also mentions the performance of the Hang Seng Index at 26710.45, up 1.38%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 4083.67, up 1.50% [2]
受假期影响港股流动性减弱,恒指围绕关键支撑位震荡
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-01-05 13:30
周报 受假期影响港股流动性减弱,恒指围绕关键支撑位震荡 港股市场 2026-01-05 星期一 【市场回顾】 上周恒指小幅回升 2.01%,主要是受到能源、信息技术和原材料这三个板块 的带动,其中能源板块涨幅达到 4.2%,信息技术与原材料小幅上涨 3.8%和 3.6%,在二级板块中半导体、国防军工和石油化工表现较为突出,整体来看 港股市场风险偏好有所恢复,但年末港股流动性保持低位水平。资金方面, 上周富盈基金份额减少 1.89%,成交额少于恒生中国企业 ETF,显示市场资 金显著倾向港股中的中国资产。截止 12 月 26 日,当周港股通净流入规模 25.61 亿港元,流入资金规模减少主要是受到香港假期的影响。整体来看近期港股 市场流动性减弱,但资金面情况保持相对稳定,内地的南下多头资金继续维 持流入状态,对港股的估值起到支撑作用。 【投资建议】 市场环境:全球主要大类资产中权益资产表现较好,包括港股在内的新兴市 场的表现跑赢发达市场,而此前市场高度关注的白银、铜、白金等金属商品 的价格出现回调。当周国内公布最新 PMI 数据,显示我国外贸出口具有韧性。 国内外经济数据跟踪:国内公布 12 月份 PMI 数据 ...
中资美元债周报:一级市场发行仍处低位,二级市场高收益优于投资级-20260105
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-01-05 12:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds remained at a low level last week due to the New Year's Day holiday, with only 2 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $38 million. The secondary market's high-yield segment outperformed the investment-grade segment. The yields of short - and long - term US Treasuries showed a divergent trend [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - Affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds remained low, with 2 new bonds issued, totaling about $38 million. Chongqing Puli Development issued a senior bond worth 220 million RMB, the largest issuance last week, and Zhangdian State - owned Assets issued a senior unsecured bond worth 48 million RMB with a coupon rate of 6.9%, the highest - priced new bond last week [7][8][10]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) declined 0.04% week - on - week, while the emerging market US dollar bond index rose 0.03%. The investment - grade index of Chinese US dollar bonds closed at 202.6423, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the high - yield index closed at 160.354, up 0.11% week - on - week. The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.03% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index closed at 244.3846, up 0.01% week - on - week, and the high - yield return index closed at 241.6935, up 0.16% week - on - week [11][14]. 2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Performance by Industry - Different industries showed different yield changes. The communication and energy sectors led the rise, with yields down 14.6bps and 5.8bps respectively. The real estate and essential consumer sectors led the decline, with yields up 13.7Mbps and 99.9bps respectively [18][23]. 2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Performance by Different Ratings - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive ratings, investment - grade names generally declined, with the weekly yield of A - rated names up 0.8bps and that of BBB - rated names up 1.9bps. Most high - yield names declined, with the yield of BB - rated names down 4.1bps, the yield of DD+ to NR - rated names up about 12.0bps, and the yield of unrated names up 4.4Mbps [20]. 2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - China Jinmao provided asset collateral for the debt of "23 Jinmao MTN001". Fantasia Group had overdue borrowing principal of 1.4411 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025. Shanghai Shimao Construction had new overdue interest - bearing debts of about 1.85 billion yuan from December 22 to 28, 2025 [24][25][26]. 2.5 Main Rating Adjustments Last Week - Moody's downgraded Vanke's corporate family rating to Ca from Caa2 and maintained a negative outlook. United International rated Quzhou Grand Garden Group A - with a stable outlook. Zhongchengxin Asia - Pacific rated Sanya Urban Transport Group Ag - with a stable outlook [28]. 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The table shows the quotes of 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low, including information such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon [29]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of January 2, the yields of US Treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield was 3.4666%, down 1.24bps from last week; the 2 - year yield was 3.4733%, down 0.57bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.7427%, up 4.69bps; and the 10 - year yield was 4.1907%, up 6.3bps [33]. 5. Macro News - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed serious disagreements. The US initial jobless claims were lower than expected. New US tax measures for some cross - border remittances came into effect. The Bank of Korea will comprehensively revise monetary and liquidity statistics. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes hinted at future interest rate hikes. Turkey implemented a visa - free policy for Chinese ordinary passport holders. China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in December 2025 all entered the expansion zone. China's service trade grew steadily in the first 11 months of 2025. China had a current account surplus of $492.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. The operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to November 2025 increased 1% year - on - year. China's foreign debt scale decreased steadily. The 2026 national subsidy plan was officially released. The decline in China's national commercial housing transaction volume in 2025 narrowed compared to the previous year. The average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities in December 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the average price of second - hand homes decreased. The auto market is expected to have positive growth in January 2026 and face more pressure in February [32][34][40].
元旦数据迎来开门红,政策红利持续发力
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-01-05 11:02
美兰空港(357.HK) 2026-01-05 星期一 美兰空港(357.HK)-首发报告- 20240229 浪潮数字企业(357.HK)-更新报告- 20250411、20251128 研究部 姓名:李承儒 SFC:BLN914 电话:0755-21519182 Email:licr@gyzq.com.hk 即时点评 元旦数据迎来开门红,政策红利持续发力 【事件】 文旅部数据显示,元旦假期全国国内出游 1.42 亿人次,总花费 847.89 亿 元。国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量 4271.82 万人次。 短途出游成为主流,城市本地休闲、近程旅游和周边游热度高。值得注意 的是,元旦期间海南全省接待游客 217.16 万人次,与 2025 年同比增长 25.2%;旅游总花费 31.36 亿元,同比增长 28.9%。随着海南国际航线网 络持续加密,覆盖亚欧多个重点区域,叠加多平台涉外营销推广,元旦入 境旅游市场实现"爆发式增长"。1 月 1 日数据显示,三亚入境游机票订 单量同比增幅达 5 倍,海口增长近 3 倍,增速位列全国前两位。马来西 亚、泰国、韩国、越南、澳大利亚成为主要入境客源地,国际 ...
即时点评:对进口牛肉实施保障措施落地,利好国内牛价
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-01-05 06:24
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the domestic beef industry due to the implementation of import beef quota and additional tariffs, recommending a focus on YouRan Agriculture (9858.HK) [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, import beef will be subject to safeguard measures, including country-specific quotas and an additional 55% tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, with a three-year implementation period [3]. - The quota for imported beef in 2026 is set at 2.688 million tons, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia having specific allocations [3]. - In 2024, China's beef imports were 2.87 million tons, accounting for over 30% of domestic production, indicating a high reliance on imported beef [4]. Summary by Sections Import Quota and Tariffs - The safeguard measures are a response to the significant increase in imported beef, which has caused serious damage to the domestic industry [3]. - The quota for 2026 includes 1.106 million tons from Brazil, 0.511 million tons from Argentina, 0.324 million tons from Uruguay, and 0.205 million tons from Australia [3]. Domestic Beef Market Impact - The high proportion of imported beef and the new quota system are expected to benefit domestic beef prices by alleviating supply pressure [4]. - As of December 26, 2025, domestic beef prices were 53.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [4]. - The ongoing reduction of breeding cattle since 2025 is tightening supply, further supporting price increases [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the import quota system will reduce supply pressure and, combined with the ongoing reduction of breeding cattle, is likely to lead to continued price increases, positively impacting the profits of livestock companies [5].
国元证券晨会纪要-20260105
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-01-05 06:03
资料来源:BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 0.21 个基点报 3.473% 研 究 报 告 特朗普:将让美大型石油公司进入委内瑞拉 美联储保尔森暗示,再次降息可能需要一段时间 欧佩克+预计将在周日会议维持石油产量稳定 中央财政 5.12 亿元支持越冬饲草料储备 去年我国批准创新药 76 个,对外授权破千亿美元 巴菲特:伯克希尔再存续百年的可能性高于任何其他公司 台积电 1.4nm 或明年试产 雷军:2026 年小米汽车交付目标 55 万辆 特斯拉在欧洲市场遭遇惨淡的一年 销量大幅下滑 国家大基金,大比例增持中芯国际 H 股 5 年期美债收益率涨 1.39 个基点报 3.743% 10 年期美债收益率涨 1.38 个基点报 4.191% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 1 ...
国元证券晨会纪要-20251224
Guoyuan Securities2· 2025-12-24 02:32
研 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源:BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 究 报 告 美国第三季度 GDP 年化季率 4.3% 美国劳动力市场复苏 ADP 周均新增 1.15 万人 美国拟 2027 年对中国半导体产品征关税 欧洲 11 月汽车销量实现五连增 波罗的海干散货运价指数跌至五个月低点 两部门加码光热发电,明确 2030 年装机 1500 万千瓦 北京发放国内首批 L3 级高速自动驾驶专用号牌 三亚免税店销售额连续 5 日破亿元 英伟达计划春节前对华交付 H200 芯片 中芯国际部分产能涨价 10% 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.18 个基点报 3.532% 5 年期美债收益率涨 2.65 个基点报 3.734% 10 年期美债收益率涨 0.40 个基点报 4.165% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 197 ...
国元证券晨会纪要-20251223
Guoyuan Securities2· 2025-12-23 03:06
Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the financial markets, including the performance of major indices and commodities, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [6][5]. - The report also notes the ongoing geopolitical events and their potential impact on market dynamics, particularly in relation to U.S. monetary policy and international trade [4]. Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2023.00, reflecting a decrease of 2.32% [6]. - The Nasdaq Index rose by 0.52% to close at 23428.83, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.47% to 48362.68 [6]. - The ICE Brent Crude Oil price increased by 2.61% to $62.05, indicating a rise in energy prices [6]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.04, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% [6]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25801.77, up by 0.43%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also rose by 0.43% to 8939.68 [6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.69% to 3917.36, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.13% to 2492.70 [6]. - The ChiNext Index saw a notable increase of 2.23%, closing at 3191.98, indicating strong performance in the growth sector [6].
首钢资源(00639):焦煤资源得天独厚,高股息凸显价值
Guoyuan Securities2· 2025-12-19 12:59
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 3.52, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 2.89 [6][81]. Core Insights - The company possesses unique coking coal resources with superior quality, being located in a major reserve area in Shanxi Province, China. The coking coal produced is highly valued and referred to as "Panda Coal" due to its scarcity and economic value [3][56]. - The financial health of the company is robust, with no interest-bearing debt and a significant cash flow, allowing for high dividend payouts. The company has a commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 40%, with actual rates averaging around 80% in recent years [5][66][71]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability in 2026 as coking coal prices stabilize and the approval for the Guojiaogou coal mine project is anticipated to provide additional growth opportunities [4][6][76]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1985, is primarily engaged in the mining and production of coking coal in Shanxi Province, a key area for high-quality coking coal in China [12][13]. Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market is experiencing limited new capacity due to strict safety regulations and a decrease in overseas imports. Domestic production is expected to stabilize, leading to a potential tightening of supply and upward price elasticity [32][41][52]. Company Highlights - The company has three operational coking coal mines with a total production capacity of 5.25 million tons per year, and it is actively pursuing the approval for the Guojiaogou coal mine, which could add significant capacity [3][16][76]. - The average selling price of coking coal has seen fluctuations, with a significant drop in 2025, but a recovery is expected in 2026 as market conditions improve [4][51][81]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit in 2023 and 2024 due to lower coking coal prices and production disruptions. However, projections for 2026 indicate a recovery in both revenue and net profit, driven by improved market conditions and operational efficiencies [7][81].
归创通桥(02190):业绩持续快速增长,神经和外周介入管线不断丰富
Guoyuan Securities2· 2025-12-19 09:21
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 28.35 per share, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 22.50 [5][15]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the domestic neurovascular and peripheral vascular interventional medical device sector, demonstrating high research and development efficiency with a diverse product line of 73 items, of which 51 are commercialized in China [4][7]. - The company has achieved significant international expansion, with revenue from international markets reaching RMB 15.7 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [3][9]. - The company reported a total operating revenue of RMB 482 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.69%, driven by strong sales in neurovascular and peripheral vascular interventional devices [4][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company has a robust R&D platform that has successfully launched several innovative products, including the Qilin blood flow guiding device and OCT-guided peripheral vascular plaque directional cutting guiding catheter series [4][7]. - The company is actively expanding its international presence, with 22 products commercialized in 27 countries and entering 7 of the top 10 global markets [3][9]. - The company’s revenue growth is supported by the strong performance of its neurovascular and peripheral vascular interventional devices, with neurovascular product sales reaching RMB 304 million, accounting for 63.3% of total revenue [4][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 1.056 billion, RMB 1.377 billion, and RMB 1.797 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 223 million, RMB 309 million, and RMB 389 million [5][15]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve significantly, with a forecasted net profit growth of 122.5% in 2025 and 38.6% in 2026 [6][15]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned in the market due to its competitive advantages in domestic substitution and continuous investment in R&D [5][15]. - The optimization of centralized procurement policies by the healthcare authority is expected to further enhance the company's future performance [4][12].