2024 年 08 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 20240812 市场复盘：三大指数窄幅整理，市场量能萎缩 报告要点： 2024 年 8 月 12 日三大指数窄幅整理，市场量能萎缩。上证指数下跌 0.14%，深证成指下跌 0.24%，创业板指下跌 0.20%。市场成交额 4986.57 亿元，较上一交易日减少 672.68 亿元。全市场 1510 只个股上涨，3647 只 个股下跌。 风格上看，稳定、周期、金融和成长风格都出现下跌，消费风格有所上 涨；基金重仓股指数表现优于基金非重仓股；成长股表现劣于价值股。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍下跌；表现相对靠前的是：医药 （1.31%），煤炭（0.74%），农林牧渔（0.59%）；表现相对靠后的是：房地 产（-3.55%），消费者服务（-2.60%），商贸零售（-2.07%）。概念板块方 面，多数概念板块下跌，新冠特效药、新冠肺炎检测、体外诊断等大幅上 涨；射频及天线、城中村改造、房地产精选等大幅走低。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 8 月 12 日净流出 162.80 亿元。其中超大单净 流出 59.80 亿元，大单净流出 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 2024 年 08 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 月度渗透率过半，供需进入新阶段 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 7 月新能源销量正式过半,供需两端均开启新阶段 7 月国内新能源车零售销量 87.9 万辆，同比去年同期增长 36.9%，新能 源车渗透率达到 51.1%，正式迈过 50%大关。从供给端看，产业生命周期 曲线而言，50%渗透率意味着进入成长期后半段，曲线由凹曲线越过拐点 成为凸曲线，二阶导由正转负，潜在自然增长动力减弱。开辟新增长曲 线，推动出海，强化竞争优势或者通过并购等手段提升老曲线竞争力， 成为标配发展手段。从需求端看，迈过 50%渗透率阶段，消费市场从早期 大众进入后期大众阶段，消费者需求向更加综合化、一体化，更注重"一 揽子"满足需求，抽象而言更注重品牌化所体现的整体感受的阶段正在 到来。建议关注智能/自动驾驶、人形机器人、飞行汽车等新曲线机会， 以及老曲线上成本力与品牌力领先，出海本地化发展基盘稳固以及具备 并购与"新合资"优势的相关产业链企业。 出海 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 每日复盘 2024 年 08 月 12 日 20240812 市场复盘：三大指数窄幅整理，市场量能萎缩 报告要点： 2024 年 8 月 12 日三大指数窄幅整理，市场量能萎缩。上证指数下跌 0.14%，深证成指下跌 0.24%，创业板指下跌 0.20%。市场成交额 4986.57 亿元，较上一交易日减少 672.68 亿元。全市场 1510 只个股上涨，3647 只 个股下跌。 风格上看，稳定、周期、金融和成长风格都出现下跌，消费风格有所上 涨；基金重仓股指数表现优于基金非重仓股；成长股表现劣于价值股。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍下跌；表现相对靠前的是：医药 （1.31%），煤炭（0.74%），农林牧渔（0.59%）；表现相对靠后的是：房地 产（-3.55%），消费者服务（-2.60%），商贸零售（-2.07%）。概念板块方 面，多数概念板块下跌，新冠特效药、新冠肺炎检测、体外诊断等大幅上 涨；射频及天线、城中村改造、房地产精选等大幅走低。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 8 月 12 日净流出 162.80 亿元。其中超大单净 流出 59.80 亿元，大单净流出 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the best investment phase for the automotive industry has passed, indicating a shift towards new growth curves and a focus on competitive advantages in existing markets [4]. Core Insights - In July, domestic new energy vehicle retail sales reached 879,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.9%, with a penetration rate of 51.1%, marking a significant transition in the supply and demand landscape [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new growth opportunities in smart/automated driving, humanoid robots, and flying cars, while also focusing on companies with strong cost and brand advantages in the traditional automotive sector [2][4]. - The automotive industry is entering a new phase where consumer demand is shifting towards more integrated and brand-focused experiences, moving from early adopters to a broader market [2]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In July, the retail sales of passenger vehicles were 1.729 million units, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while wholesale sales were 1.956 million units, down 5% year-on-year [15]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 879,000 units in July, up 37% year-on-year, with cumulative retail sales for the year reaching 4.991 million units, a 34% increase [15]. Industry Developments - Mercedes-Benz became the first international automaker authorized to conduct L4 autonomous driving tests in Beijing [23]. - GAC's robotaxi service received approval for road testing in Hengqin, marking a significant step in autonomous vehicle deployment [30]. - CATL signed a strategic investment agreement with Peak Aviation to develop eVTOL aviation batteries, indicating a push towards innovative transportation solutions [28]. Investment Recommendations - Long-term investment focus should be on automotive technology related to smart/automated driving, humanoid robots, and flying cars, driven by technological advancements and policy support [4]. - Short-term attention should be given to value-leading component manufacturers benefiting from macroeconomic cycles [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the automotive and auto parts industry, suggesting a focus on long-term opportunities in automotive technology and international expansion [5]. Core Insights - In July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China reached 879,000 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.9% and a penetration rate of 51.1%, indicating a shift into a new phase of supply and demand dynamics [2][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new growth curves through international expansion, enhancing competitive advantages, and potential mergers and acquisitions as the industry matures [2]. - The demand side is transitioning from early adopters to a broader consumer base, with a growing emphasis on integrated solutions and brand experience [2]. Summary by Sections Monthly Sales and Market Trends - In July, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China were 1.729 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while the cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.568 million units, a growth of 2% [20]. - The wholesale volume for NEVs in July was 955,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% [20]. Industry Developments - Mercedes-Benz became the first international automaker authorized to conduct L4 autonomous driving tests in Beijing [3]. - Geely Radar has established partnerships with numerous dealers in Thailand, marking a significant step in its international strategy [3][49]. - CATL signed a strategic investment agreement with Peak Aviation to develop eVTOL aviation batteries [3][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three key areas for long-term investment: smart/automated driving, humanoid robots, and flying cars, driven by technological advancements and regulatory support [4]. - Short-term attention should be given to value-leading component manufacturers that exhibit strong cyclical characteristics [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the telecommunications and electronics industry, considering the sustained high prosperity of the telecommunications sector driven by AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [2][3]. Core Insights - The telecommunications sector experienced a market correction, with the overall index down by 3.73% during the week of August 5-9, 2024. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.87%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.60% [2][8]. - Despite the correction, the report highlights the ongoing high demand for data center interconnections, particularly due to the rapid development of generative AI, which requires a tenfold increase in fiber connections within data centers [2][3]. - A significant agreement was reached between Lumen Technologies and Corning for the supply of next-generation fiber optic cables, which will double Lumen's intercity fiber mileage in the U.S. and support the growing AI workload and high-bandwidth applications [2][3]. Market Overview - The telecommunications sector's sub-industry performance showed varied results, with other communication equipment experiencing the least decline at 0.59%, while communication cables and accessories saw the highest drop at 5.31% [9][10]. - Notable stock performances included Xintian Technology with a remarkable increase of 78.29%, followed by Zhongtong Guomai at 21.6% and Huiyuan Communication at 10.56% [11]. Key Developments - The "Qianfan Constellation" plan aims to launch 15,000 satellites for a comprehensive communication network, with the first batch of satellites successfully launched on August 5, 2024. This initiative is expected to enhance domestic communication services significantly [12]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced plans to expand telecommunications business openness and reform the satellite internet business access system, aiming to create a more efficient and unified market entry environment [13]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the importance of central enterprises leading the use of innovative products in key technology sectors, including satellite navigation and chips [15]. Recommended Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on the computing power supply chain and satellite internet sectors, with recommended stocks including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and China Telecom among others [3].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 行业研究|深耕安徽 2024 年 08 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 电动智能"飞轮"加速，优势集聚"汽"势磅礴 ——"深耕安徽"专题系列报告之汽车篇 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 聚焦安徽十年跨越式发展，我们推出《"深耕安徽"系列专题报告》，为企 业家解读安徽省产业政策规划、为投资人挖掘产业投资机遇、为政府机构 梳理产业链上下游关键节点。作为行业篇的首篇报告，本文从政策与产业视 角复盘产业变迁，总结安徽省智能电动汽车产业高速发展的规律和趋势，挖 掘安徽省智能电动产业优质企业。 六十年深耕积累，引领新能源汽车转型，铸造中国汽车产业新高地 安徽汽车产业起步于上世纪 60 年代，在本土"一乘一商"的积极探索 下，持续积累产业资源。进入 21 世纪后在自主品牌及新能源汽车大发 展的背景下，借助产业机遇和政府引导开启加速发展道路。2000 年至 2023 年期间，安徽汽车产量从 5.7 万辆跨越至 208.8 万辆年均复合增 长率达 16.9%；2024 年上半年，安徽省在分省市生产份额排名中已仅 次于广东与重庆两地，跃升至全国第三名。2023 年安徽 ...

Economic Indicators - China's July CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, primarily driven by pork prices[1] - PPI may have reached a peak, with global credit tightening impacting commodity cycles and inflation data showing underlying downward pressure[1] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is influenced by non-fundamental factors, including recent self-regulatory investigations of banks and risks highlighted in the central bank's monetary policy report[1] - It is recommended to maintain medium to short-duration bonds while being cautious with long-term bonds due to liquidity constraints[2] U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The possibility of a U.S. rate cut in September remains uncertain, with the Fed tightening its monetary policy, indicating a potentially overheated economy[1] - The gap between the RMB midpoint and spot rates suggests efforts to stabilize the exchange rate amid uncertainties regarding interest rate differentials[1] Market Performance and Recommendations - The equity market is expected to show limited performance at the index level, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors and environmental protection[2] - The commodity cycle may be entering a downward trend, leading to a gradual move towards deflation globally[2] Key Market Data - Shanghai Composite Index: 2862.19[2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 8393.70[2] - CSI 300 Index: 3331.63[2] - Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Index: 3128.17[2] - ChiNext Index: 1595.64[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [8] Core Views - In H1 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 83.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.696 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to no less than 75% of the annual net profit for the years 2024-2026, with distributions occurring twice a year [2] - The growth in wholesale channel revenue was significant, while direct sales remained stable [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, total revenue reached 36.966 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.95%, with net profit at 17.630 billion yuan, up 16.10% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in H1 2024 was 68.567 billion yuan and 13.147 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15.67% and 30.51% [2] - The company reported a stable gross margin of 91.91% in H1 2024, with a slight decline in net margin to 51.74% [2] Revenue Channels - In H1 2024, direct sales and wholesale channel revenues were 33.728 billion yuan and 47.986 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 7.35% and 26.50% respectively [2] - The number of domestic and international distributors remained stable at 2,097 and 106, with a net increase of 17 distributors since the beginning of the year [2] Production and Inventory - The production of base liquor for Moutai and series liquor in H1 2024 was 39,100 tons and 22,700 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.33% and 5.42% respectively [2] - Contract liabilities at the end of H1 2024 increased to 9.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.25% [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 86.334 billion yuan, 98.994 billion yuan, and 111.963 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.52%, 14.66%, and 13.10% respectively [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company, founded in 1582, is a well-established "Chinese Time-honored Brand" specializing in traditional Chinese medicine, particularly in the field of anorectal health [12][14] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with Q1 2024 revenue reaching 955 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.70%, and a net profit of 198 million yuan, up 5.36% year-on-year [5][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution channels and enhancing operational efficiency, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the future [5][34] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a long history of 440 years and has diversified its business into three main segments: pharmaceutical manufacturing, pharmaceutical commerce, and medical services [12][14] - The company’s flagship products include the well-known Ma Ying Long hemorrhoid ointment and other traditional Chinese medicine products [12][26] Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The hemorrhoid treatment market is expanding, with the market size for hemorrhoid medications in China growing from 3.854 billion yuan in 2018 to 4.973 billion yuan in 2022 [22][24] - The company holds a significant market share in the hemorrhoid medication sector, with its products accounting for 41.40% of the market in 2021 [30][34] - The company is also expanding into the eye care and skin care sectors, leveraging its expertise in traditional Chinese medicine [37] Pharmaceutical Commerce - The company’s pharmaceutical commerce segment includes both retail and wholesale operations, which are expected to continue steady growth [3] Medical Services - The company is developing a comprehensive anorectal health service platform, integrating both online and offline services [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 3.389 billion yuan in 2024, 3.651 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.911 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits expected to reach 536 million yuan, 602 million yuan, and 695 million yuan respectively [5][7]