Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent rebound in the A-share market is driven by positive policy signals aimed at economic recovery, maintaining liquidity, and restrictions on quantitative trading [6][8]. - The Third Plenary Session and Politburo meeting have set a positive tone for policies focusing on modernization and stimulating consumption, which may improve short-term economic recovery expectations [6][8]. - Short-term liquidity is expected to remain loose due to the easing of monetary policy and the anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the current excess reserve rate at a low of 1.5% [6][8]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue its short-term rebound, as historical data shows that during market corrections, key economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI and industrial profits tend to decline, but recent data indicates some recovery [8][10]. - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of a rebound in profits and a potential stabilization in credit growth, indicating a likely oscillating market trend in the second half of the year [10][12]. - The DDM framework suggests that the short-term rebound may persist, supported by improving economic and profit recovery expectations, with a notable increase in industrial profits reported in June [12][15]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that technology growth sectors are likely to be the main focus for investment during the rebound, as historically, high-growth industries outperform during market recoveries [15][17]. - It also notes that dividend-paying sectors remain attractive for long-term investment, particularly in low-growth economic environments, with several high-dividend industries showing favorable valuation metrics [15][17]. - Additionally, certain cyclical and consumer sectors are highlighted as having potential investment opportunities, particularly those related to consumption stimulus policies [15][17].

政策叠加数智赋能，网络主播迈入高质量发展 投资要点 事件：7 月 31 日，人力资源和社会保障部会同国家市场监督管理总局、国家统 计局正式增设网络主播为国家新职业。在政策支持下，短视频直播平台与实体经 济不断融合，普通人有望获得更多规模化的就业机会和职业选择。 政策端明确行业定位，网络主播进入高质量发展阶段。7 月 31 日，人力资源和 社会保障部会同国家市场监督管理总局、国家统计局正式增设网络主播为国家新 职业，这标志着网络主播的职业身份在"国家确定职业分类"上首次得以确立。 据人社部此前印发的《关于加强新职业培训工作的通知》，新职业从业者可享受 国家职业技能培训补贴和职业技能鉴定补贴等有关政策待遇，以及高技能人才与 专业技术人才职业发展相关政策。新旧政策多轮驱动，为直播行业正名，增强从 业人员归属感，亦标志着直播行业进入高质量发展阶段，或有效刺激新型就业， 为千行百业发展注入新活力，长效赋能新质生产力发展。 "直播+"或推动直播产业快速发展。网络直播的实时性、互动性和可访问性为 各行业发展带来机遇，重塑了传统商业模式和消费者行为，正改变多个行业业态。 短短几年时间，网络直播已经在直播电商、乡村振兴、教育培 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the semiconductor industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by AI, with high-value products seeing increased demand. The three major memory manufacturers have reported continuous revenue growth in Q2 2024, with SK Hynix achieving a record high in quarterly revenue [1][8]. - The report highlights that regulatory tightening is leading to a rationalization of channel prices, stabilizing the market prices for memory products [41][43]. - Taiwanese memory manufacturers are showing improved performance, indicating an upward cycle in the industry [1][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Driving High-Value Product Growth - All three major memory manufacturers reported revenue growth in Q2 2024, with SK Hynix achieving a historical high in quarterly revenue. Samsung's storage business revenue reached 21.74 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 142.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.30% [1][9]. - The demand for high-value products such as DDR5 and HBM is strong, driven by AI server requirements, with expectations for continued robust demand in the second half of the year [19][23]. Section 2: Regulatory Tightening and Price Stabilization - The DXI index, reflecting overall DRAM prices, has been steadily rising since June 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in the DRAM market. The current market conditions are characterized by stable prices and reduced volatility [41][43]. - The report notes that the channel market is moving away from price wars due to increased regulatory scrutiny, which is helping to stabilize prices [48]. Section 3: Improvement in Taiwanese Memory Manufacturers - Taiwanese memory manufacturers have shown continuous improvement in performance, with optimistic outlooks for the second half of 2024. Nanya Technology expects a significant increase in HBM demand driven by AI servers [1][8]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering an upward cycle, with expectations for sustained growth over the next two years [1][8].

华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）经中国证券监督管理委员会核准，取得证券投资咨询业务许可。本公司及其投资咨 询人员可以为证券投资人或客户提供证券投资分析、预测或者建议等直接或间接的有偿咨询服务。发布证券研究报告，是证券投资咨询 业务的一种基本形式，本公司可以对证券及证券相关产品的价值、市场走势或者相关影响因素进行分析，形成证券估值、投资评级等投 资分析意见，制作证券研究报告，并向本公司的客户发布。 本报告仅供华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本 公司的当然客户。 在法律许可的情况下，本公司及所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券或期权并进行证券或期权交易，也可能为 这些公司提供或者争取提供投资银行、财务顾问或者金融产品等相关服务，提请客户充分注意。客户不应将本报告为作出其投资决策的 惟一参考因素，亦不应认为本报告可以取代客户自身的投资判断与决策。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见均不构成对任 何人的投资建议，无论是否已经明示或暗示，本报告不能作为道义的、责任的和法律的依据或者凭证。在任何情况下，本公司亦不对任 何人 ...

宁德时代（300750.SZ） 公司快报 业绩稳定增长，新产品快速放量 投资要点 事件：公司 7 月 26 日发布中报，2024 年中期实现营收 1667.67 亿元、同比-11.9%， 归母净利润 228.65 亿元、同比+10.4%，扣非归母净利润 200.54 亿元、同比+14.2%。 2024Q2 实现营收 869.96 亿元、同比-13.2%、环比+9.1%，归母净利润 123.55 亿 元、同比+13.4%、环比+17.6%，扣非归母净利润 108.07 亿元、同比+10.8%、环 比+16.9%。 公司业绩稳健增长。公司上半年整体销量超过 200GWh，二季度动力和储能电池整 体销量近 110GWh，其中储能电池占比超过 20%。神行电池和麒麟电池今年开始 大规模放量，全年来看，神行和麒麟电池在公司动力电池出货中占比 30%~40%， 未来出货比重会持续提升。2024H1 公司其他收益 53.64 亿元、同比增长 78.71%。 投资净收益 20.77 亿元、同比增长 46.5%，主要系部分参股公司净利润提升相应增 加投资收益。资产减值损失 -19.14 亿元，主要系存货成本高于其可变现净值计算 ...

强调扩内需，有望提振市场 事件点评 事件：中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年 经济工作。 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 政策定调基本符合市场预期，重点强调扩大内需、加大财政发力、落实地产新政等。 对 A 股市场短期影响可能偏正面。（1）经济修复预期短期可能有所改善。一是会 议重点强调要提振消费，同时提出要更大力度推动大规模设备更新和大宗耐用消费 品以旧换新，对商品消费、服务消费以及制造业投资增速短期都可能有所提振。二 是会议重点强调收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，同时强调要消化存量，短期内对 地产销售和房地产市场预期改善可能有提振。（2）流动性短期大概率维持宽松。 一是会议重点强调财政进一步发力，在货币政策配合性宽松基调下，进一步宽松空 间充裕；二是美联储 9 月降息是大概率，国内经济修复预期下人民币汇率压力大幅 下降，国内有进一步降息降准的空间。（3）风险偏好也可能受到提振。一是本次 会议强调的财政发力、扩大内需可能扭转短期市场对经济增长的悲观预期；二是本 次会议强调要加快全面落实已确定的 ...

44 = 图 12: 住宅价格指数（2010.12=100）…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 图 1: 中国出口商品大类金额占比结构（从内圈至外圆分别为 2019 年、2021 年、2022 年、2023 年） .......... 3 一、形势研判：外部不利影响增多，新旧动能转换阵痛 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 内容目录 图表目录 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本次会议对当前经济形势的研判较 4 月政治局会议更趋审慎，突出强调外部不利影响增多， 国内的困难主要在于有效需求不足和经济运行出现分化，可能主要指向消费和投资二季度的背 离。会议指出这是"新旧动能转换"中的"阵痛"，意味着一些需求结构的调整优化是转型政策 主动而为，从而未来经济政策将在消费和投资内需中做出高质量发展导向的结构取舍。 本次会议对当前经济形势的研判与 4 月相比有两点变化：1）更突出地强调"外部环境变 ...

OLED 方案创新&渗透率提升，面板/存储迎来 发展新机遇 事件点评 根据 IC Research 消息，国内头部面板厂商维信诺已完成世界首颗采用嵌入式 RRAM（阻变存储器）存储技术 AMOLED 显示驱动芯片的开发和认证。该新型 AMOLED 显示驱动芯片由维信诺与驱动芯片设计公司昇显微电子联合开发，存储 器设计公司睿科微电子提供技术支持。 主流方案存在外置 Flash 成本& Demura 补偿参数读取速度慢问题，新型方案 成本/面积/效率占优。OLED 屏是当前智能手机屏幕主流选择，AMOLED 作为 OLED 的首选驱动方案，随着智能手机销量的不断增长以及 AMOLED 在智能手 机中渗透率的不断提高，市场规模逐步扩大。由于工艺原因，AMOLED 存在亮 度均匀性和残像两大难题。针对 AMOLED 显示屏面临显示亮度不均匀（mura） 的共性问题，AMOLED 显示驱动芯片需要集成 Demura（消除显示器 mura,使 画面亮度均匀的技术）补偿算法来优化显示效果。（1）主流方案：外置一个存 储器随时解决 AMOLED 面板 mura 的问题。采用内置 SRAM（静态随机存储器） +内置 OTP（一 ...

多电池领域布局，重点突出 投资要点 事件：2024 年 7 月 16 日，公司发布半年度业绩预告。2024H1 公司预计实现归属 于上市公司股东的净利润 7.67~8.99 亿元，同比增长 75.00%~105.00%；预计实现 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 7.38~8.70 亿元，同比增长 99.79%~135.38%。 公司盈利能力提升。2024H1 公司净利润较上年同期大幅提升，主要系市场营销力 度加大，主营业务收入稳步增长，盈利能力提高所致。2024Q2 归母净利润 4.48~5.80 亿元，同比-25.70%~-3.81%，环比+40.44%~+81.82%；扣非归母净利 润 4.59~5.91 亿元，同比-25.61%~-4.21%，环比+64.52%~+111.83%。 AI 大模型时代到来，消费电池行业迎来发展新机遇。随着 AI 快速发展，AI、MR 进而带来消费电池销量的增加。 在手机、笔记本上的应用广泛，带动智能硬件的更新换代。根据 Canalys 的最新研 究，2024Q2 全球智能手机出货量 2.88 亿台，同比增长 12%。其中，三星仍然是 全球领导者，拥有 18%的市场份额；苹果以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy - A" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 15% over the next six months [15][19]. Core Insights - The company focuses on content copyright as its core business, exploring new growth opportunities through AI-related technologies. The launch of its AI intelligent creation engine, ChatPV, marks a significant step in enhancing content production capabilities [3][4][11]. - The company has accumulated over 200,000 hours of copyright material in film, animation, and audio-visual programs, positioning itself well in the evolving media landscape [12]. - The financial forecasts predict a recovery in revenue and profit, with expected net profits of 600 million, 608 million, and 684 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside an EPS of 0.23, 0.23, and 0.26 yuan [13][17]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to recover from 2,800 million yuan in 2023 to 3,125 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [4][17]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, projected at 31.5% in 2023 and 32.6% in 2024 [4][17]. - The company's total assets are forecasted to grow from 10,641 million yuan in 2023 to 12,896 million yuan by 2026, indicating a solid asset base for future operations [17].