证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 AI为健康产业持续赋能 医药行业周报 | 投资评级： | 推荐 （ 维持 ） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025年02月17日 | 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1 . AI为健康产业持续赋能，接入DeepSeek有望加速普及 从病理图像智能识别到目前多模态医学大模型，AI持续为医疗健康产业赋能，并逐步重塑医疗诊断的模式。AI在医疗中的 应用首先体现在效率的提升和成本的节省，如智能阅片、自动生产电子病例，自动生成体检报告，将医生从重复性工作中 解放更专注于患者的治疗。2025年2月13日华为数据储存官宣，将于2月18日发布基于DCS AI解决方案的瑞金病理大模型， 多模态的医学大模型陆续发布，将头部医疗资源的诊疗经验以AI的方式向医疗系统推广，将提升整体的医疗资源，实现高 水平医疗诊断的广泛普及。整合AI的智能体还将医疗服务延伸至家庭端，如AI+CGM 不仅能持续监测血糖，还可以根据分 析数据以提供个性化的提示和建议。自国内原生的大模型Dee ...

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the revaluation of non-US assets continues, indicating that it is not yet time to retreat from these investments [1] - The report emphasizes a strong bullish outlook for Japanese stocks, interpreting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike as manageable [1][2] - The report highlights the strong performance of the A-share market, driven by pre-conference seasonal effects and increased foreign capital inflows [2] A-Share Strategy - The bullish signal for A-shares has been validated, with a strong market risk appetite leading to increased trading volume [2][5] - The report notes that the introduction of Deepseek signifies a narrowing gap between China and the US in AI, accelerating application processes [2] - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from the upcoming Two Sessions, including state-owned enterprise restructuring and consumption [34] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The report maintains a strong bullish stance on Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a dual allocation strategy in technology and high-dividend stocks [2][49] - The absolute return of selected Hong Kong stocks has reached 17.37%, with Tencent and Sunny Optical being major contributors [49] - The report indicates that the AH premium has returned to low levels, advising against chasing prices in the current market [44] US Market Strategy - The report advises maintaining a low position in US stocks, as recent short-term rebounds have been realized [36] - The report highlights that liquidity conditions are supported by a rebound in net liquidity from the Federal Reserve, despite some pressure from rising CPI [36][37] - The report notes that the financial conditions index remains volatile, indicating a need for caution in the US market [39] Commodity Strategy - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, with short-term uncertainties gradually clearing, while the long-term upward trend remains intact [55][57] - The report mentions that the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 5 tons in January, marking the third consecutive month of increases [56] - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions and inflation risks will continue to drive demand for gold in the long term [57] ETF Strategy - The report details that the equity-focused ETF strategy has achieved an absolute return of 31.27% since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6] - The report indicates that the ETF portfolio has been adjusted to include semiconductor equipment, with major holdings in precious metals and consumer sectors [58] - The report highlights that the bond-focused ETF strategy has shown resilience, with a cumulative return of 5.88% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - AI continues to empower the healthcare industry, with the integration of DeepSeek expected to accelerate its adoption [3]. - The trend of AI in drug development is gradually forming, reshaping traditional drug R&D processes [5]. - The external environment for CROs may change, with AI+CRO integration enhancing capabilities [7]. - Illumina's inclusion in the unreliable entity list by the Ministry of Commerce is accelerating the localization of the gene sequencing industry [9]. - Progress in CAR-T therapy technology is noteworthy, with universal CAR-T therapies beginning clinical trials [11]. - The market for diabetes and weight loss treatments is expanding, with significant innovations in NASH therapies [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.53 percentage points over the past week, with a growth of 2.71% [25]. - Over the past month, the industry also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.75 percentage points, achieving a growth of 6.51% [28]. - The medical services sub-sector showed the highest weekly and monthly growth rates of 6.51% and 15.03%, respectively [31]. 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index's current PE (TTM) is 31.17, below the historical average of 33.13 [46]. - The industry has experienced a 5.17% decline over the past three months, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.68 percentage points [44]. 3. Recent Research Achievements - The research team has published several in-depth reports highlighting positive trends in the supply and demand sides of the pharmaceutical industry [50]. 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - The National Medical Insurance Administration has issued a list of key tasks for 2025, focusing on improving efficiency in the medical insurance sector [52]. - Recent news includes various drug approvals and clinical trial advancements from companies like Kangfang Biotech and Betta Pharmaceuticals [54]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market potential, including Xintai, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Kangxino [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Views - The demand for refrigeration compressors is high due to the expansion of high-end equipment needs, benefiting the company as a leading precision machinery manufacturer in China [2] - The company has established strong relationships with overseas core clients, which are becoming a new growth engine for its business [3] - The company is making significant progress in capacity expansion and new product development, indicating strong potential for future earnings growth [4][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company has shown a strong market performance, with its overseas revenue share increasing from 33% in 2021 to 44% in 2023, reflecting robust international expansion capabilities [3] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 11.96 billion, 15.03 billion, and 18.54 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.20, and 1.52 yuan [8][10] - The company is expected to experience stable growth due to its global layout and gradual capacity release [8] Production and R&D - The company is currently constructing a factory in Mexico, expected to partially commence production in 2025, which will enhance its overseas capacity and mitigate trade risks [4] - R&D investment has been increasing, with 0.53 billion yuan spent in the first nine months of 2024, representing a 6.24% R&D expense ratio, up by 0.64 percentage points from the previous period [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure due to intense competition in the existing market, with a revenue decline of 1.99% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 2.684 billion yuan, and a net profit drop of 34.29% to 427 million yuan [5] - The company is advancing its next-generation FPGA products, which have completed sample testing and are in small-batch sales to select customers, while also working on yield improvement [6] - The storage product lines have seen significant sales growth in the first half of 2024, benefiting from industry changes and stable pricing, with a comprehensive product architecture that meets various customer needs [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 37.66 billion yuan, 43.78 billion yuan, and 49.96 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78 yuan, 1.03 yuan, and 1.30 yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company faces fierce competition in the existing market, leading to a decrease in profitability [5] Product Development - The company has a comprehensive FPGA product line with advanced technology and is progressing with next-generation products [6] - The storage product lines have shown significant growth due to market recovery and stable pricing [7] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 37.66 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.5%, and further growth in subsequent years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure due to intense competition in the existing market, leading to a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit [5][8] - The company is making steady progress with its next-generation FPGA products, which have completed sample testing and are being sold in small batches to select customers [6] - The storage product line has seen significant sales growth in the first half of 2024, benefiting from industry changes and stable pricing [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.99%, and a net profit of 427 million yuan, down 34.29% [5] - The third quarter revenue was 890 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.55% [5] Product Development - The company has a comprehensive FPGA product line with advanced technology, including million, billion, and ten billion gate FPGA products, as well as PSoC products [6] - The new generation of FPGA products is being developed using advanced 1xnm FinFET processes, with ongoing yield improvement efforts [6] Storage Product Line - The company has established a complete niche non-volatile memory product architecture, including EEPROM, NOR Flash, and NAND Flash [7] - Sales of storage products have significantly increased in the first half of 2024, with prices stabilizing after a period of decline [7] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.766 billion yuan, 4.378 billion yuan, and 4.996 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78 yuan, 1.03 yuan, and 1.30 yuan [8] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 51, 39, and 30 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [8]

把握港股央企红利， 博弈恒生科技波段机会。 更新时间：2025年2月13日 ——港股2月投资策略 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 【港股择时观点】积极做多基本面、情绪面、资金面三维共振行情 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 我们以恒生指数为核心标的，从基本面、流动性、资金面、情绪面、估值五大维度筛选细分指标，对港股 市场涨跌的影响因子进行详尽了的定性分析和定量评估。 p 最终选取单因子测试中的有效信号：OECD中国经济领先指标、恒指期权认沽认购比PCR、外资净买入金 额三个指标，给出恒生指数的看多看空信号。 p 择时策略样本外2024年9月23日到10月10日从空仓转向看多恒生指数，成功把握住政策反弹带来的港股波 段行情。之后港股震荡调整，策略以空仓为主，成功避开了港股下跌区间。 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程深度报告 【港股择时观点】积极做多基本面、情绪面、资金面三维共振行情 p 【最新信号】对港股延续"强烈推荐"观点，看好港股银行、AI相关的互联网平台、数据中心、硬件和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to significantly improve in 2024 due to market recovery and enhanced operational efficiency [4] - The company has achieved substantial growth in net profit, with forecasts indicating a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70% for 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The current stock price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23 billion yuan and a total share count of 2019 million shares [1] Industry Overview - The earthmoving machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 16% year-on-year in December 2024 [4] - The overall demand for earthmoving machinery is on the rise, contributing to the company's performance [4] Company Strategy - The company has implemented a flexible strategy focusing on "profit growth, business growth, and capability enhancement" as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - The completion of the mixed-ownership reform has diversified the shareholder structure and optimized governance, enhancing the company's internal vitality [5] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 30.26 billion yuan, 34.92 billion yuan, and 40.59 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.72, 1.01, and 1.30 yuan [9][11] - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 1.26 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan, with a significant increase in profitability metrics [3][11] Product Development - The company is a leader in the industry for electric products, having achieved full electrification across its product lines, with significant advancements in electric excavators and autonomous machinery [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the AI sector, including 科大讯飞 (002230.SZ), 寒武纪 (688256.SH), 鼎通科技 (688668.SH), 亿道信息 (001314.SZ), 迈信林 (688685.SH), and 泓淋电力 (301439.SZ) [17][53]. Core Insights - The AI application DeepSeek has achieved over 22.15 million daily active users (DAU) within 21 days of its launch, making it the fastest-growing AI application globally, surpassing ChatGPT's DAU by 41.6% [8][31]. - AMD's upcoming AI accelerator, Instinct MI400, is set to feature eight acceleration chips and an independent multimedia I/O chip, enhancing performance for AI training and inference tasks [25][28]. - The report highlights significant advancements in AI models, particularly the DeepSeek-R1 model, which has shown superior performance in various benchmark tests compared to its predecessors and competitors [36][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Computing Power Dynamics - The rental prices for computing power remain stable, with specific pricing details for various configurations provided [24][26]. - AMD's Instinct MI400 accelerator is expected to integrate advanced features, including multiple acceleration chips and improved communication structures [25][28]. 2. AI Application Dynamics - DeepSeek's rapid user growth is noted, with a monthly active user (MAU) count of 33.7 million, and a significant portion of its user base located overseas [8][31]. - The DeepSeek-R1 model has been developed using a novel reinforcement learning approach, achieving impressive results in benchmark tests [36][39]. 3. AI Financing Trends - Anthropic has secured $1 billion in funding, positioning itself as a leading player in the AI financing landscape [41][42]. 4. Market Review - The report provides insights into the performance of various AI indices, noting significant fluctuations in stock prices among key players [45][46]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in AI hardware and software sectors, recommending a focus on leading companies in the field [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.258 billion to 1.475 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70% [3] - The construction machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved operational efficiency contributing to the company's performance [4] - The company has successfully implemented a mixed-ownership reform, enhancing its internal vitality and diversifying its shareholder structure [5] - The company is a leader in the electric product market, having achieved full electrification across its product lines, with significant advancements in electric and autonomous machinery [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 12, 2025, the company's stock price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23 billion yuan and a total share count of 2,019 million [1] Industry Overview - The construction machinery market is experiencing a rebound, with excavator sales increasing by 16% year-on-year in December 2024, and overall excavator sales for the year reaching 201,100 units, a 3.13% increase [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 30.257 billion, 34.918 billion, and 40.589 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.72, 1.01, and 1.30 yuan [9] - The company is expected to see a net profit growth rate of 67.8% in 2024, followed by 39.7% in 2025 and 29.0% in 2026 [11] Operational Efficiency - The company has adopted flexible strategies to enhance profitability, business growth, and capability development, leading to significant operational efficiency improvements [4]