Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on upgrading its mid-tier products and is making steady progress in channel reform, which is expected to drive revenue growth [4][5] - The introduction of the upgraded Qinghua 20 product with a "five-in-one" system is anticipated to enhance channel management and consumer traceability, thereby improving sales efficiency [5] - Long-term earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 10.60, 13.01, and 15.94 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 19, and 15 times [6] Summary by Sections Product Upgrades - The company announced price increases for several mid-tier products effective June 20, including a 60 yuan increase for the 42-degree Panama 20-year product and a 30 yuan increase for the 42/45-degree 10-year Fenjiu [4] - The upgrade of the Lao Bai Fen 10 product includes new packaging design and storytelling elements, which are expected to boost sales in the banquet market [4] Channel Management - The upgraded Qinghua 20 product features a new design and the "five-in-one" system, which includes an RFID chip for better channel management and consumer traceability [5] - The nationwide promotion of the new product is expected to enhance channel efficiency and improve price transmission after full market rollout [5] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 31.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 21.3% [8] - Net profit is expected to increase from 10.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23.9% [8] - The report highlights a stable gross margin improvement, with gross margins projected to rise from 75.3% in 2023 to 78.0% in 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [16]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading semiconductor authorized distributor, benefiting from strong partnerships with major manufacturers like SK Hynix and MTK, which contribute significantly to its revenue [16][10]. - The company has established a solid foundation in semiconductor distribution, with plans to expand into upstream sectors of the semiconductor industry, enhancing its overall competitiveness [7]. - The introduction of new products, particularly in eSSD and DRAM modules, is expected to open long-term growth opportunities [16]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is estimated at 155.56 billion, 178.22 billion, and 203.21 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.85, 1.01, and 1.15 yuan [9][16]. - The revenue growth rates are forecasted at 38.1% for 2024, 14.6% for 2025, and 14.0% for 2026, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 3.3%, 18.0%, and 14.6% for the same years [9][16]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 40.1, 34.0, and 29.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [16].

证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 从出口到出海的A股行业变迁线索 ...

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 16 日本:人均GDP 美元 中国:人均GDP 美元 日本:人口自然增长率 ‰（右轴） 中国:自然增长率 ‰（右轴） 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 18 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证 券 2024 年 06 月 04 日 研 究 涤纶长丝、磷酸一铵等涨幅居前，建议继续关 报 注涤纶长丝、制冷剂和农化板块 告 —基础化工行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 ▌纯碱磷酸一铵等涨幅居前，PA66 天然气等跌幅较大 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 周环比涨幅较大的产品：丁二烯（上海石化，7.14%），对硝 联系人：刘韩 S1050122080022 基氯化苯（安徽地区，6.67%），国际柴油（新加坡， liuhan@cfsc.com.cn 6.51%），轻质纯碱（华东地区，6.48%），合成氨（安徽昊 行业相对表现 源，6.15%），天然橡胶（上海市场，4.91%），纯苯（FOB 韩国，3.98%），顺丁橡胶（山东，3.70%），磷酸一铵（西 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) -2.7 4.1 -11.8 南工厂粉状 60%，3.68%），纯苯（华东地区，3.64%）。 沪深300 0 .3 2.1 -6.4 周环比跌幅较大的产品：二氯甲烷（华东地区，-2.65%）， 市场表现 PA66（华中，-2.71%），环氧丙烷（华东，-2.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the smart driving industry, particularly focusing on Tesla's advancements and the competitive landscape in China [2]. Core Insights - The evolution of smart driving technology is primarily driven by algorithm advancements, transitioning from rule-based systems to end-to-end models, with Tesla leading this shift [3][4]. - Future trends in smart driving are expected to focus on data integration, cost reduction in hardware, and regulatory frameworks, with key developments anticipated in data competition, large models, and task-oriented approaches [3][4]. - The report identifies four critical dimensions for evaluating domestic smart driving capabilities: data accumulation ability, usability, safety, and comfort [3][4]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The historical development of smart driving algorithms has seen Tesla move from rule-based to end-to-end systems, achieving significant upgrades in perception and control algorithms from 2017 to 2023 [3][4]. - Tesla's hardware has evolved from HW1.0 to HW4.0, with substantial improvements in self-developed FSD chips and algorithmic upgrades [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report predicts a convergence in smart driving algorithms, emphasizing the importance of data loops and hardware cost reduction as core components of future advancements [3][4]. - It outlines three key trends for the future of smart driving: data competition, large models, and task-oriented approaches [3][4]. Supply Analysis - The report highlights the importance of data accumulation as a competitive factor among automotive companies, suggesting that traditional algorithm-based evaluations will become less relevant [3][4]. - It emphasizes that the ability to track and utilize data will be crucial for assessing the competitive standing of various automakers [3][4]. Demand Analysis - The report anticipates a significant turning point for urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) by the first half of 2025, with expectations for improved usability and user experience [3][4]. - It discusses the differences between highway NOA and urban NOA, noting that urban NOA will require a different approach due to the complexity of city driving environments [3][4]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in leading smart driving companies, particularly those with strong engineering capabilities and innovative approaches to data utilization [154][155]. - It also suggests focusing on component suppliers that will benefit from the growth of smart driving technologies, particularly in the domains of domain controllers and line control systems [154][155].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.99 RMB per share [46] Core Views - The company's core business in canned products remains stable, while its coconut-based beverage business has become a new growth driver [46] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with 2023 revenue reaching 1.923 billion RMB, a 20.5% YoY increase, and net profit reaching 278 million RMB, a 36.9% YoY increase [46][72] - The company's coconut-based beverage business has surpassed 1 billion RMB in revenue, becoming the second growth curve, with coconut water expected to be a new growth point in the future [58] Regional Sales and Market Performance - Central China and Southwest China are the company's strong regions, contributing 35.15% and 18.51% of total sales revenue in 2023, respectively [6] - The company's sales in the Southwest and Northwest regions have shown significant growth, with CAGR of 14.68% and 13.90% from 2017 to 2023, respectively [6] - The company's sales in East China and South China have been under pressure, with East China's sales declining by 9.50 percentage points from 2017 to 2023 [6] Production Capacity and Utilization - The company has four production bases in Shandong, Hubei, and Guangdong, with a designed annual capacity of 47.19 million tons for beverages and 16.78 million tons for canned products [8] - The current capacity utilization rates for beverages and canned products are 44.76% and 44.18%, respectively, indicating room for improvement [8] - The company's new production base in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, is expected to start production in 2024, with a designed annual capacity of 13.65 million tons [8] Canned Products Market - The canned food market in China has shown stable growth, with the fruit and vegetable processing market reaching 15.376 billion RMB in 2023, an 8.91% YoY increase [14] - The company's canned product revenue reached 758 million RMB in 2023, a 16.92% YoY increase, with a CAGR of 6.10% from 2017 to 2023 [18] - The company's canned products, especially yellow peach and orange canned products, have gained popularity due to their health benefits and convenience during the pandemic [12] Coconut-Based Beverage Market - The coconut-based beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with the coconut liquid beverage market reaching 16.89 billion RMB in 2023, an 8.20% YoY increase [46] - The company's coconut-based beverage revenue reached 1.143 billion RMB in 2023, a 22.21% YoY increase, with a CAGR of 9.76% from 2017 to 2023 [18] - The company has introduced new coconut-based products, such as thick coconut milk and coconut water, to explore new growth opportunities [58] Distribution Channels - The company's distribution channels have shown steady growth, with dealer sales reaching 1.818 billion RMB in 2023, a 21.6% YoY increase [34] - The company is expanding its direct sales channels, with direct sales revenue reaching 36 million RMB in 2023, a 49.8% YoY increase [34] - The company aims to achieve 1 million retail outlets by 2024, with 700,000 effective retail outlets already in place by the end of 2023 [64] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin and net margin have shown steady improvement, with gross margin reaching 38.75% in 2023, a 5.17 percentage point YoY increase [83] - The company's operating cash flow reached 351 million RMB in 2023, a 2.20% YoY increase, with a CAGR of 5.41% from 2018 to 2023 [16] - The company's asset turnover and receivable turnover rates have improved, with total asset turnover ranking first among soft drink companies [16] Industry Trends - The canned food industry in China is experiencing a shift in consumer perception, with increasing recognition of the health benefits and convenience of canned products [12] - The industry is moving towards consolidation, with the top 5 companies accounting for 22.6% of the market share in 2023, up from 17.5% in 2014 [119] - The industry is also seeing innovation in product packaging and marketing, with companies introducing new packaging formats and engaging in co-branding to attract younger consumers [125]

证 券 2024 年 06 月 03 日 研 究 利基型 DRAM 市场回暖，存储产品毛利率提升 报 告 —兆易创新（603986.SH）公司动态研究报告 买入(维持) 投资要点 分析师：毛正 S1050521120001 ▌ 消费市场回暖带动营收增长，存储产品毛利率环 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn 比提升 联系人：张璐 S1050123120019 公司 2024 年 Q1 实现营业收入同比环比增长，同比增长 zhanglu2@cfsc.com.cn 21.32%，环比增长 19.10%，得益于 2024 年消费市场经历 基本数据 2023 年需求低迷和库存去化后率先出现需求回暖，特别是手 2024-05-31 机和手机周边个人消费品出现相对明显回暖趋势，带动公司 当前股价（元） 83.11 用于该应用的产品销量提升，同时公司在经营上持续进行研 总市值（亿元） 554 发投入和产品迭代，各条产品线竞争力增强，其中 Flash、 总股本（百万股） 667 DRAM 和 MCU 都实现了销售量和营收的提升。2024 年 Q1 公司 流通股本（百万股） 665 实现毛利率 38.16%，同比持平，环比 ...

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证 券 2024 年 06 月 03 日 研 究 美国经济数据整体低于预期，贵金属将开启下一 报 轮涨势 告 —有色金属行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 ▌黄金：美国经济数据整体低于预期，贵金属将开 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 启下一轮涨势 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 数据方面，美国经济数据低于预期。 GDP 方面，美国一季度 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 实际 GDP 年化季环比修正值今值 1.3%，与预期持平，低于前 行业相对表现 值 1.6%。PEC 物价指数增速下滑，美国 4 月核心 PCE 物价指 数同比今值 2.8%，与预期持平，低于前值 2.82%；环比今值 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属(申万) -0.3 13.9 1.0 0.2%，低于预期 0.3%，低于前值 0.3%。4 月个人消费支出 沪深300 -0 .7 1.2 -7.3 (PCE)环比 0.2%，低于预期 0.3%，低于前值 0.7%。总结本周 数据，GDP 及个人消费支出均不及预期，且呈现下滑态势， 市场表现 暗示美国经济内生动力趋弱。 (%) 有色 ...