Industry Overview - Planetary roller screws are a high-value segment in humanoid robots, with a single Tesla Optimus requiring 14 planetary roller screws, each priced at approximately 2,000 RMB, contributing to a total value of over 28,000 RMB per robot [3] - Planetary roller screws have a gross margin of up to 60%, making them one of the most profitable components in humanoid robots [3] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach 2050 million units by 2030, with a corresponding market size of 28703 billion RMB, and the value of planetary roller screws applied in humanoid robots is expected to reach 2296 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 1541% [5] Technological Advantages and Market Potential - Planetary roller screws offer advantages such as high load capacity, precision, compact size, and long service life, making them more suitable for humanoid robots compared to ball screws [4] - The domestic market for planetary roller screws is highly concentrated, with foreign companies holding 80% of the market share, but domestic companies like Nanjing Gongyi are closing the performance gap, indicating significant potential for domestic substitution [4] - The global market for ball screws and planetary roller screws is expected to grow from 1595 billion RMB in 2023 to 4730 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 168%, and planetary roller screws for humanoid robots will contribute 731% of the incremental growth [56] Key Companies and Their Developments - **Xinjian Transmission**: The company has built the first domestic production line for planetary roller screws, with an annual capacity exceeding 35 million units, and its products have been applied in humanoid robots and automotive EMB braking systems [71][76] - **Dingzhi Technology**: A leader in linear actuators, Dingzhi Technology holds the second-largest global market share and is developing micro planetary roller screws, with its linear actuators widely used in medical and industrial automation fields [79][80] - **Qinchuan Machine Tool**: The company has mastered core technologies in thread casting and can produce ball screws with precision up to P0 level, with its products already in mass production for grades 2 and 3 [6] Market Trends and Future Outlook - Humanoid robots are positioned as disruptive products following computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, with key investment directions focusing on core technologies and critical components [49] - The domestic planetary roller screw industry is at a critical juncture for large-scale application, with China leading in patent applications, accounting for 44% of the total, and significant advancements in design, manufacturing, and performance testing [65][67] - The global planetary roller screw market is dominated by foreign companies like GSA, Ewellix, and Rollvis, but domestic companies are rapidly catching up, with Nanjing Gongyi and Bot Precision holding 8% market share each [63][64]

证 券 2024 年 03 月 27 日 研 究 存量与新增共同驱动，轨交控制系统龙头有望迎 报 来业绩增长 告 —中国通号（688009.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 中国通号发布 2023 年年报：2023 年公司实现营业收入 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 370.02 亿元（同比-7.96%）；归母净利润 34.77 亿元（同比 -4.30%）；扣非归母净利润 32.66 亿元（同比-4.41%）。其 基本数据 中轨道交通控制系统业务收入 292.62 亿元，占总营收 2024-03-27 78.9%。 当前股价（元） 5.48 总市值（亿元） 580 投资要点 总股本（百万股） 10590 流通股本（百万股） 8621 ▌政策落地，加速轨交产业回暖 52周价格范围（元） 4.05-6.71 “十四五”期间我国新增铁路营业里程约 2.37 万公里，铁路 日均成交额（百万元） 179.75 市场总投资额预计达到 3.5 万亿元，同时期，我国将新增城 市场表现 铁运营里程 3000 公里，铁路专用线建设投资总额预计也将达 (%) 中国通号 沪深 ...

报 司 2024 年 03 月 28 日 证券研究报告 告 研 究 / 华 中 / 华 东 / 西 北 / 华 北 / 东 北 / 华 南 / 出口分别为 9.91/5.08/7.59/2.00/3.33/1.36/1.83/0.35 亿元，分别同 比 34%/13%/14%/-8%/20%/-1%/9%/7%。 公司作为复调赛道龙头，通过产品推新不断夯实火锅底料与 中式复调竞争力，同时依托食萃补齐中小 B 端客户短板，随 着内生外延双轮驱动，有望充分获取市场份额。根据年报， 预计 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 0.52/0.65/0.77 元，当前股价 对应 PE 分别为 24/19/16 倍，维持"买入"投资评级。 ▌ 风险提示 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 3 ▌ 食品饮料组介绍 廖望州：香港中文大学硕士，CFA，3 年食品饮料行业研究经验，覆盖啤酒、卤 味、徽酒领域。 行业投资评级说明： | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][7][19]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with total operating income reaching 2.065 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million yuan, up 68% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company successfully completed its "three-year doubling" phase goal, driven by continuous development and optimization of distributors, terminal market construction, and new product promotions [2][5]. - The report highlights the strong performance of quail eggs, which have become the company's second-largest product, with sales revenue exceeding 300 million yuan [2][5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's gross profit margin was 28.17%, and the net profit margin was 10.27%, both showing improvements of 3 percentage points and 2 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][5]. - The company reported a gross profit margin of 32.61% and a net profit margin of 13.46% in Q4 2023, reflecting significant improvements due to scale effects and cost optimization [2][5]. - The company’s sales expense ratio and management expense ratio were 10.76% and 4.04%, respectively, indicating stable expense efficiency despite revenue growth [2][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from fish products, poultry products, soybean products, vegetable products, and others in 2023 was 1.291 billion, 452 million, 217 million, 72 million, and 26 million yuan, respectively, with poultry products seeing a remarkable 233% increase in sales volume [2][5]. - Online and offline channel revenues were 416 million and 1.649 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35% and 43% [2][5]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's main revenue is projected to be 2.638 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 27.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 317 million yuan, a growth rate of 51.3% [5][7]. - The report anticipates EPS of 0.70 yuan for 2024, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2023 due to falling prices of potassium and lithium, with revenue decreasing by 36.22% to 5.226 billion yuan and net profit down by 39.52% to 3.420 billion yuan [2][4]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to benefit from its cost advantages in lithium extraction and the ongoing expansion of its copper mining operations, which are projected to enhance future earnings [4][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.226 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.420 billion yuan, down 39.52% [2][4]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride fell by 28.60% to 2,709.64 yuan per ton, while the average cost of sales increased by 7.58% to 1,088.83 yuan per ton [2]. Copper Mining Operations - The company holds a 30.78% stake in the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, which produced 154,000 tons of copper in 2023, generating revenue of 10.235 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.211 billion yuan [2][4]. - Investment income from the Giant Dragon Copper Mine increased by 78.81% year-on-year to 1.296 billion yuan, accounting for 37.90% of the company's net profit [2][4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.949 billion yuan, 4.690 billion yuan, and 6.050 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.878 billion yuan, 3.364 billion yuan, and 4.375 billion yuan [4][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in earnings driven by the expansion of the Giant Dragon Copper Mine and the successful development of lithium and potassium projects in Laos [4][6].

证 券 2024 年 03 月 27 日 研 究 分红比率提升，高端化升级行稳致远 报 告 —青岛啤酒（600600.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024年 03 月26 日，青岛啤酒发布 2023年度业绩报告。 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 投资要点 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 ▌ 毛销差扩大，高端化升级推升盈利能力 2024-03-26 当前股价（元） 85.08 公司 2023 年营收 339.37 亿元（同增 5.49%），归母净利润 总市值（亿元） 1161 42.68 亿元（同增 15.0%），业绩符合预期；2023 年毛利率 38.66%（同增 1.8pcts），净利率 12.81%（同增 1.0pct）； 总股本（百万股） 1364 销售费用率为 13.87%（同增 0.82pct），管理费用率为 流通股本（百万股） 705 4.48% （ 同 降 0.1pct ） ， 毛 销 差 为 24.79% （ 同 增 52周价格范围（元） 68.35-124.33 1 ...

报 证 公 研 告 券 研 证券研究报告 ▌ 盈利预测 ▌ 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------------------------|-------|-------| | 预测指标 | | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 1,923 | 2,225 | 2,561 | 2,940 | | 增长率（%） | 20.5% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 14.8% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 278 | 329 | 382 | 444 | | 增长率（%） | 36.9% | 18.0% | 16.4% | 16.2% | | 摊薄每股收益（元） | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 0.99 | | ROE（%） 18.8% | | 19.9% | 20.7% | 21.3% | 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, with a target price corresponding to a PE ratio of 19, 14, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [35] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated high-quality growth in performance, with a total operating revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42% [35] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 506 million yuan in 2023, up 67.8% year-on-year, driven by improved supply chain efficiency and cost control [35] - The company is focusing on seven core categories and expanding through multi-channel and multi-category development, which is expected to enhance brand presence and market share [35] Financial Forecast - The forecast for main revenue (in million yuan) is as follows: 5,353 in 2024E, 6,797 in 2025E, and 8,355 in 2026E, with growth rates of 30.1%, 27.0%, and 22.9% respectively [14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 721 million yuan in 2024E, 984 million yuan in 2025E, and 1,299 million yuan in 2026E, with growth rates of 42.6%, 36.4%, and 32.0% respectively [14] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.68 yuan in 2024E, 5.02 yuan in 2025E, and 6.62 yuan in 2026E [14] Market Performance - The company has a total market capitalization of 135 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 68.79 yuan [35] - The stock has a 52-week price range of 61.45 to 137.61 yuan, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [35]

证 券 研 2024 年 03 月 27 日 究 报 橡胶制冷剂等价格上涨，建议继续关注轮胎、制 告 冷剂板块 —基础化工行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 ▌橡胶制冷剂涨幅居前，尿素焦炭跌幅较大 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 行 周环比涨幅较大的产品：液氯（华东地区，9.96%），天然橡 联系人：刘韩 S1050122080022 胶（上海市场，6.20%），苯胺（华东地区，6.18%），乙基 业 liuhan@cfsc.com.cn 氯化物（华东地区，5.56%），硝酸（安徽 98%，5.41%）， 研 行业相对表现 顺丁橡胶（山东，4.94%），国际汽油（新加坡，4.81%）， 究 丁苯橡胶（华东 1502，4.65%），R134a（浙江巨化， 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 1.1 -3.9 -22.7 4.62%），R22（巨化股份，4.17%）。 沪深300 1 .4 6.2 -11.7 周环比跌幅较大的产品：TDI（华东，-2.42%），己二酸（华 市场表现 东，-2.58%），尿素（华鲁恒升(小颗粒)，-2.67%），DMF ( ...

图表 2：软着陆时期往往服务业强于制造业 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 软着陆 美国:供应管理协会(ISM):制造业PMI 美国:ISM:非制造业PMI:6MA 美国服务业周薪同比6MA（右轴） % 资料来源：wind 资讯，华鑫证券研究 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 6 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 2、 海外资产：美国股债双牛，商品走势分 | | | 化，美元仍有韧性 | | | 2.1 、 美国股债：同步走牛，且股牛持续性好于债牛 | | | 美国软着陆时期往往会出现股债的同步走牛，主因是在软着陆降息时期，股票会出现 | | | 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 | 7 | 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 证券研究报告 戴维斯双击，经济好支撑 EPS，降息有助于提振 PE；债牛则是因为软着陆时期预防式降息 预期，引导实际利率下行，进而催生债牛 ...