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Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the photovoltaic (PV) industry, indicating a stable growth trajectory despite short-term challenges [2][10]. Core Insights - The PV industry is transitioning towards maturity and stability, driven by technological innovation and strategic positioning of companies. The demand side remains robust, supported by energy structure transformation and carbon neutrality goals [2][10]. - The PV index is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024, following a period of volatility influenced by supply excess and policy changes [2][11]. - The main industry chain is at a bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvements as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall PV Industry and Index Review - The PV industry faced a "winter" period due to supply excess, but government policies are being implemented to alleviate these issues. The industry is expected to recover as low-end capacities are phased out [9][10]. - The PV index has shown significant volatility compared to other indices, with a notable decline in 2023 due to oversupply, but is projected to reach a bottom and recover [11][12]. 2. PV Industry: Short-term Slowdown, Long-term Growth - Global renewable energy generation surpassed 30% of total generation for the first time in 2023, with PV capacity growing from 1.2TW in 2022 to 1.6TW in 2023 [13][15]. - The report forecasts a slowdown in growth rates due to high base effects, but long-term growth remains intact, with global PV installations expected to increase by 29% in 2024 [13][15]. 3. Main Industry Chain: Bottom Characteristics and Marginal Upside - The industry is currently at a bottom position, with expectations for improvement as supply-demand dynamics stabilize and prices bottom out [21][22]. - The transition from P-type to N-type cells is accelerating, with N-type materials becoming the preferred choice for manufacturers [22][25]. 4. Supporting Materials: Diverse Growth Logic - The demand for PV glass is expected to rise due to increased installations and the penetration of bifacial modules, while supply may tighten due to policy restrictions [2][21]. - The inverter segment is seeing a positive trend as energy storage becomes a secondary growth curve, benefiting leading companies with cost and channel advantages [2][21]. 5. PV ETFs: Focus on Leading Funds - The report highlights the limited scale of domestic PV-themed ETFs, recommending investors to focus on reputable fund managers with a strong track record [2][4].

证券研究报告 行业研究|汽车 2024 年 07 月 10 日 汽车行业 2024 年 6 月产销数据跟踪:总产销环比 保持增长,新能源车型月度产销均破 100 万辆 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 1.产销:销量环比继续增长,同比略有放缓。6 月,汽车产销 250.7 万辆 /255.2 万辆,同比-2.1%/-2.7%,环比+5.7%/+5.6%。1-6 月,汽车产销 1389.1 万辆/1404.7 万辆,同比+4.9%/+6.1%,较 1-5 月-1.6pct/-2.2pct。 2.出口:增速环比提升,比亚迪、吉利延续高增长态势。6 月,汽车出口 48.5 万辆,环比+0.7%,同比+26.9%(较 5 月+2.9pct);新能源汽车出口 8.6 万辆,同比+10.3%,环比-13.2%,占比 17.73%,相较 5 月继续下滑,或 因欧盟加征反补贴临时关税干扰。1-6 月,汽车累计出口 279.3 万辆,同比 +30.5%;新能源汽车累计出口 60.5 万辆,同比+13.2%。分车企来看,比 亚 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with product and inventory cycles indicating a positive trend. From November 2023 to April 2024, global and Chinese semiconductor sales have seen six consecutive months of growth, with current growth rates approaching 20% [3][21] - The establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund is expected to improve the overall ecosystem of the industry, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, surpassing the previous two phases combined [3][36] - The AI wave continues to be the main driver of industry recovery, benefiting multiple sectors such as storage, analog, and packaging. The demand in industrial and automotive sectors is also showing signs of improvement [3][40] Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Cycle Perspective - The semiconductor industry is gradually showing recovery signs, with key indicators indicating a turning point. The current cycle is primarily driven by product and inventory cycles [10] - The sales figures for global semiconductors from 2021 to 2023 were $555.89 billion, $574.08 billion, and $520.13 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 26.23%, 3.27%, and -9.40% [17] 2. Semiconductor Industry Chain - The industry chain presents structured opportunities, with various segments facing different growth potentials. The AI wave is expected to drive growth in sectors such as SoC, storage, and power devices [40][54] - The storage segment is entering an upward cycle, with significant growth in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by AI applications [59][64] 3. Semiconductor Industry ETF and Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry ETF is worth attention as the industry is expected to enter an upward cycle. As of July 1, 2024, the semiconductor index PB is at 3.31, indicating a high safety margin [3][150] - The report suggests that while some segments of the semiconductor industry may still face short-term pressure, most segments are expected to see sustained growth or turning points in the second half of 2024 [150]

服务业较上月有所放缓，但仍是主要拉动项。6 月服务业新增就业 11.7 万，前值 18.1 万。其中医疗教育（+8.2 万）依旧为最大拉动项；批发业 （+1.4 万）、信息业（+0.6 万）、其他服务（+1.6 万）较前值有所上升； 零售（-0.9 万）、专业和商业服务（-1.7 万）新增转负。6 月商品业（+1.9 万）新增就业小幅回升。其中，建筑业（+2.7 万）新增大幅回升，制造业 （-0.8 万）走负，采矿伐木新增为零。值得注意的是，6 月政府部门新增 就业（+7 万）季节性走强，私人部门（+13.6 万）新增就业大幅放缓。 美国 6 月劳动力市场趋势性放缓，维持 9 月首次降息预期。尽管非农新增 就业小幅超预期，市场仍然交易 4-5 月就业数据大幅下修、失业率突破美 联储指引、就业缺口收窄等指向劳动力市场放缓的信号。非农数据公布 后，9 月首降概率上升至 78%，12 月再次降息概率为 77%。6 月非农数 据维持了 4 月以来的转弱趋势，市场对年内降息信心增强。 风险提示：美国就业市场韧性超预期，美联储货币政策紧缩超预期。 2024 年中宏观展望：固本培元，如日之 升 2024.07.03 3 美 ...

华友钴业|603799|能源金属 2024 年 06 月 26 日 证券研究报告 华友钴业首次覆盖:长坡厚雪,穿越周期 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 铜钴传统业务稳固,为公司其他业务开展提供稳定现金流,是公司锂电材 料一体化的源头。多年来公司深耕刚果金优质铜钴资源,自有PE527铜钴 矿为公司生产运营提供低成本、稳定可靠的原料保障。作为国内最大的钴 产品供应商,公司钴行业龙头地位稳固。在 2024 年铜产品价格处于高位 的背景下,铜钴业务有望维持稳定增长。 镍、锂资源业务加速布局,打造公司第二增长曲线。公司自 2018 年开始 在印尼布局以湿法 HPAL 工艺为主的红土镍矿冶炼项目,公司已有和规划 在建的产能合计达 64.5 万吨。继华越 6 万吨湿法项目和华科 4.5 万吨火法 项目陆续达产并超产后,华飞 12 万吨湿法项目于 23 年底达产,有望为 2024 年公司业绩增长提供显著增量。公司自 2021 年收购津巴布韦前景锂 矿公司后,Arcadia 锂矿项目迅速推进,已于 2023 年 3 月投料 ...

-5200 -200 4800 9800 14800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 -5000 -3000 -1000 1000 3000 5000 7000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 二是政策利率仍有下行空间。一方面，工业企业利润率与企业贷款利率差额仍在收 窄。截止 3 月底，工业企业利润率与企业贷款加权平均利率差较 2023 年底继续回落 88 个基点至 1.1%，信贷融资成本相较于利润率而言仍然偏高。另一方面，美联储年内降息 仍有预期。上半年，美联储不断推后降息节点，市场预期降息幅度也随之缩小，美中利 差对国内政策利率有所牵制。但往前看，美联储下半年有一次降息的预期仍然存在，随 着时间节点临近，"汇率掣肘"有望得到缓解。此外，银行净息差压力持续释放。今年以 来商业银 ...

汽车 ETF 深度:2024 年多因素助推汽车市场延续 稳健增长态势,选择相关 ETF 基金有望实现超额收 益 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 受多因素影响,汽车板块弹性优于整体市场。自基期以来,汽车板块走势 与整体市场大致近似,但弹性较优,从 2009 年下半年起有明显的超额收 益。主要受国内汽车产业促进政策/促消费政策推出、新能源汽车渗透率快 速增长、智能网联汽车加速应用、部分新车型上市/销量超预期等因素影响。 2024 年下半年,受政策促进、产销稳健、出海增长等因素影响,车市有望 延续稳健增长态势。 政策方面:2024 年以来,汽车相关促进政策推出节奏明显加快,在促进以 旧换新、明确购车补贴、降低购车门槛、取消购买限制等多方面进一步明 确,为下半年各项具体促进政策落地和实施奠定了基础,有助于稳定信心、 刺激需求,预计将进一步促进汽车市场特别是新能源汽车市场增长。 产销方面:2024 年以来,市场规模整体维持增长,多个车企推出价格和金 融优惠政策,并推出多款新车型,有望促进市场需求,支撑 2024 年车市稳 健增长。另外,新能源汽 ...

受高基数影响，财政收入同比增速为负，税收收入降幅扩大。1 至 5 月一 般公共预算收入同比增长-2.8%，负增主因在于去年出台的缓税减税政策。 一般公共预算收入完成进度为 43.3%，五年维度看处于低位。 中央支出增速维持高位，基建类支出增速高位下降。1 至 5 月一般公共预 算支出同比增速为 3.4%，与前值比增速下降 0.1pct。一般公共预算支出完 成进度为 37.9%，五年维度看表现中性。一般公共预算赤字使用率为 18.6%，五年维度看表现中性偏快。中央支出增速达到 10.2%，地方支出增 幅为 2.4%，中央支出发力明显，地方支出缓慢，拖累财政支出力度。基建 类支出增速继续处于高位，边际略有下降，说明财政政策持续发力。 相关报告 2024.06.16 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|------------------------- ...

汽车行业 2024 年 5 月产销数据跟踪:总产销增速 略有放缓,新能源市场自主品牌延续亮眼表现 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 1.总产销:销量同环比小幅增长,累计增速略有放缓。5 月,汽车产销 237.2 万辆/241.7 万辆,同比+1.67%/+1.51%,环比-1.41%/+2.46%。1-5 月,汽 车累计产销 1138.4 万辆/1149.6 万辆,同比+6.5%/+8.3%,增速较 1-4 月 收窄 1.3pct 和 2pct。 2.出口:商用车表现亮眼,比亚迪延续高增长态势。5 月,汽车出口 48.1 万 辆,同比+23.97%,环比-4.56%;其中商用车出口 8.4 万辆,环比+13.51%, 同比+33.33%;新能源汽车出口 9.9 万辆,同比-9%,环比-13.3%,或因地 缘政治干扰(6 月 12 日欧盟宣布 7 月 4 日起对国内出口至欧盟地区的电动 汽车加征反补贴临时关税)。分车企来看,比亚迪(3.8 万辆,+2.45 倍)、 吉利(4.1 万辆,+78.26%)、长安(4.7 万辆,+62.07%) ...