证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 15 日 短评：特朗普关税政策升级或受限于美债危机等现实约束 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 证书:S1320523020004 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 核心观点： 特朗普出台"对等关税"仅仅一周后再次反转。4 月 2 日，特朗普对外公 布对等关税，对全球 185 个贸易伙伴加征 10%-50%不等的关税税率，整 体加征关税的范围和幅度大幅超出市场预期。4 月 9 日，特朗普又对外宣 布暂停所谓对等关税 90 天（中国除外），仅仅一周时间内关税政策再次反 转。原先 4 月 2 日特朗普"对等关税"分为 10%的基准关税和"一国一 议"的对等关税两部分，后者是根据 2024 年美国与其他国家贸易逆差和 进口额的比值逐一定制的。而 4 月 9 日特朗普暂停的正是这部分逐一定制 的对等关税，而保留了对原先收对等关税影响国家 10%的基准关税。本次 对等关税暂停不包括中国；美国当前对华关税已达 145%。 4 月 11 日美国豁免电子、半导体产品对等关税，但 ...

2025 年展望：食饮内外兼修，稳中有进。我们认为，食饮后续行情的主 要支撑有三： [Table_Author] 易碧归 分析师 Email:yibigui@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020003 投资要点： 2024 年复盘：需求总量承压，结构分化。社零消费全年增长 3.5%，CPI 全年上涨 0.2%，内需不足，关键问题在于人口结构（长期问题）、收入水 平及结构（短期可行），亟需政策发力提振。 行业研究 年胜一年，内外兼修方得大成之道 ——2025 年食品饮料行业策略 一是消费补贴力度和效果——居民增收增补贴+免签、退税政策扩围完 善，内外需刺激两手抓，食饮公司库存去化或将加速，业绩确定性增强； 尘埃落定，食饮机会几何？——2024 年食 品饮料行业年度策略 2024.03.08 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1 二是食饮的估值修复潜力——伴随市场波动加剧、投资者风险偏好降低、 央行即将开展的降准降息，食饮低估值、低境外营收占比与高分红、高业 绩韧性的优势凸显，市场预期拐点或先于盈利拐点，存在估值修复机会； 三是行业创新加速——食饮在产品（细分、联名）、渠道（平台、自营）、 消费人 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, the total number of M&A transactions in the A-share market decreased by 8.71% to 5,774 transactions compared to 2023[7] - The total transaction amount for 2024 was approximately CNY 2.35 trillion, remaining stable compared to the previous year[8] - Major asset acquisitions saw a significant increase, with 95 transactions totaling CNY 261.7 billion, a 135% increase year-on-year[10] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The number of regulatory reviews for M&A transactions dropped to 15, a decrease of 42.31%, marking a 10-year low[12] - The approval rate for M&A transactions was 93.33%, with only one transaction being rejected[12] Group 3: Market Trends - "A eats A" transactions increased to 8 in 2024, up from 2 in 2023, indicating a recovery in this type of transaction[14] - Companies with a market capitalization of over CNY 10 billion accounted for 35.97% of asset acquisition transactions, with their total acquisition amount reaching CNY 1.36 trillion, representing 79.36% of the total[17][18] Group 4: Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical industry led M&A activity with nearly 400 transactions, making up about 11% of the total[21] - Economic regions with higher development levels, such as Guangdong and Beijing, showed more active M&A activities, with Guangdong initiating 572 transactions worth approximately CNY 237.5 billion[20]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating marginal improvement and remaining above the expansion threshold[7] - The new orders index for manufacturing recorded 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points, suggesting continuous improvement in demand[12] - The production index is at 52.6%, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing activities, while the employment index is at 48.2%, showing a need for improvement in labor conditions[14] - Both raw material and finished goods inventory indices are below the critical point, indicating insufficient replenishment activity[16] - The new export orders index is at 49%, reflecting a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold, indicating challenges in international trade[19] Group 2: Services and Construction Sectors - The services PMI increased to 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating a marginal improvement in the service sector's performance[22] - The new orders index for services is at 47.1%, below the critical point, indicating insufficient demand in the services sector[25] - The construction PMI rose to 53.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in the construction sector[28] - The new orders index for construction is at 43.6%, suggesting pressure on demand, while the employment index is at 41.4%, indicating a need for improvement in labor conditions[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The overall economic outlook remains positive with the composite PMI at 51.4%, indicating ongoing recovery and stability in the economy[8] - Risks include potential deviations from expected fundamental recovery, macroeconomic policy surprises, and geopolitical risks[33]

Production - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, indicating strong supply-side performance despite high base effects[20] - Export-driven industries, such as machinery and textile manufacturing, showed significant growth, with aerospace and electrical machinery industries growing by 20.8% and 12.0% respectively[21] - The cumulative growth rate of export delivery value in February reached 6.2%, surpassing last year's annual growth rate[21] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth improved to 4.1% in January-February, up 0.9 percentage points from the full year of 2024[30] - Broad infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.9%, driven primarily by central government-led projects, particularly in power infrastructure, which grew by 33.5%[30] - Real estate investment decline narrowed to below -10.0% for the first time in eight months, with significant improvements in funding sources and sales[32] Consumption - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, primarily driven by a 4.3% increase in catering services, reflecting strong demand during the Spring Festival[50] - The "old-for-new" policy contributed to a 4.4% growth in retail sales of consumer goods, with essential consumption growing by 9.4%[50] - Significant growth in categories influenced by the "old-for-new" policy included home appliances and communication devices, with home appliances growing by 10.9%[56] Outlook - The economic data for 2025 shows a positive start, with demand-side improvements attributed to several factors, including concentrated consumption during the Spring Festival and supportive central investment projects[57] - Future uncertainties include potential impacts from U.S. tariff reviews and the effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus measures[57] - Local government debt optimization may open up investment space, potentially leading to a recovery in narrow infrastructure growth rates[57]

Production - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing being the largest contributor at 6.9%[10] - Export-driven industries, such as aerospace and electrical machinery, maintained high growth rates, with aerospace increasing by 20.8% and electrical machinery by 12.0%[11] - The cumulative growth rate of export delivery value in February reached 6.2%, surpassing the growth rate for the entire previous year[11] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth improved to 4.1% in January-February, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous year[18] - Broad infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.9%, driven primarily by central government-led projects, particularly in power infrastructure, which grew by 33.5%[18] - Real estate investment saw a narrowing decline, with a cumulative drop of less than 10.0% for the first time in nearly eight months[20] Consumption - Social retail sales (SR) increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, with restaurant services contributing significantly, rising by 4.3%[35] - The "old-for-new" policy led to high growth in consumer goods, with retail sales of limited goods increasing by 4.4%[39] - Essential consumption grew by 9.4%, driven by food and beverage sales, which contributed 5.0 percentage points to the growth[35] Outlook - The economic data for 2025 shows a positive start, with demand improving due to several factors, including the release of pent-up consumption during the Spring Festival and supportive central investment projects[40] - However, uncertainties remain for the second quarter, particularly regarding potential impacts from U.S. tariff reviews and the effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus measures[40] - The ongoing optimization of local government debt may open up investment space, potentially leading to a recovery in narrow infrastructure growth[40]

Revenue Insights - General public budget revenue for January to February decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a slow recovery in the economic fundamentals[1] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline, while non-tax revenue grew by 11%[1][2] - Corporate income tax saw a significant drop of 10.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in corporate operations[1][2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing at a higher rate of 8.6%[2][3] - Local government expenditure growth remained low at 2.7%, contributing to the overall sluggish fiscal expenditure growth[2][3] - The ratio of general public budget expenditure to revenue reached 102.8%, indicating a higher spending level compared to previous years[2][3] Fund and Debt Management - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%, reflecting a weak real estate market[2][3] - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with expenditure growth at 1.2%[2][3] - The government plans to issue 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for 2025, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year[3][4] Policy Outlook - The government aims for a more proactive fiscal policy, with a target deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, leading to a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan[3][4] - Continued emphasis on infrastructure and social spending is expected to support economic recovery[3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][10]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.60%, and net profit of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% [4]. - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of the Osino gold mine project in Namibia, which is expected to add 127.2 tons of gold resources and contribute an annual production of 5 tons post-commissioning [6]. - The average annual price of gold in 2024 reached 2,387.98 USD/ounce, a 23% increase year-on-year, indicating a favorable market environment for gold investments [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.585 billion yuan, a 67.60% increase from 2023, and an operating profit of 3.181 billion yuan, up 51.67% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.173 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 52.57% year-on-year [4][11]. - The company's gold production reached 8.04 tons, a 14.69% increase, while silver production was stable at 196.05 tons [5]. Cost and Profitability - The unit cost of gold production decreased significantly to 145.4 yuan/gram, down 17.59% from the previous year, leading to a gross profit margin of 73.54%, an increase of 12.78 percentage points [5]. - The company expects continued growth in revenue, forecasting 15.89 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 17% increase [11]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in gold prices, driven by economic risks and inflation expectations in the U.S. [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising gold prices due to its strong resource endowment and government backing [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][10]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.60%, and net profit of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% [4][11]. - The production of gold and silver has shown stable growth, with gold production increasing by 14.69% to 8.04 tons and silver production remaining stable at 196.05 tons [5]. - The successful acquisition of the Osino gold mine project in Namibia is expected to enhance the company's resource base and production capacity, adding 127.2 tons of gold resources and an annual production capacity of 5 tons [6]. - The average annual price of gold reached a record high of 2,387.98 USD per ounce in 2024, contributing to the positive outlook for the gold sector [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 73.54%, an increase of 12.78 percentage points compared to the previous year, with a significant reduction in unit costs to 145.4 yuan per gram, down 17.59% from 2023 [5]. - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.89 billion yuan, 16.88 billion yuan, and 17.94 billion yuan, respectively, indicating continued growth [7][11]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.587 billion yuan, 4.029 billion yuan, and 4.420 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [11][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][10]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.60%, and net profit of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% [4][11]. - The production of gold and silver has shown stable growth, with gold production increasing by 14.69% to 8.04 tons, while silver production remained stable at 196.05 tons [5]. - The successful acquisition of the Osino gold mine project in Namibia is expected to enhance the company's resource base and production capacity, adding 127.2 tons of gold resources and an annual production capacity of 5 tons [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating profit of 3.181 billion yuan, a 51.67% increase from the previous year [11]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly to 73.54%, an increase of 12.78 percentage points compared to 2023 [5]. - The average annual price of gold in 2024 was 2,387.98 USD/ounce, a 23% increase year-on-year, contributing to the company's profitability [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with projections for revenue growth of 158.9 billion yuan in 2025, 168.8 billion yuan in 2026, and 179.4 billion yuan in 2027 [7][11]. - The anticipated increase in gold prices is driven by economic risks and inflation expectations in the U.S., along with potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7].