生产：关税扰动下，工业生产边际放缓。4 月，工业增加值同比增速 6.1%，低于前值，高于万得一致预期，环比增速弱于季节性，指向关税政 策扰动下，企业倾向于审慎观望，生产意愿边际回落，造成工业生产边际 放缓。4 月，出口交货值同比增速 0.9%，较上月大幅下降。总体看，工 业生产整体依旧较强：4 月工业增加值累计增速 6.4%，高出 2024 年全年 增速 0.6 个百分点，与一季度增速基本持平。产品产量上看，主要工业品 产量增速分化。上游传统能源类产量增速降低。下游消费品中，智能手 机、微型计算机、移动通信手持机等产量增速下降至负增区间，或指向电 子产品受关税政策扰动出现减产倾向。但 4 月中旬，美国海关与边境保护 局宣布对智能手机、电脑、芯片等电子产品免除"对等关税"，后续相关 电子产品产量或迎来修复。此外，新能源汽车、工业机器人、光伏电池等 代表新质生产力工业产品产量高增。 投资：固定资产投资增速略有回落，韧性依旧。基建方面，广义基建累计 增速 10.9%，略低于前置，整体依旧较强。但 4 月沥青开工率相对偏低， 主因化债背景下，按财务支出法统计时，基建投资与实物工作量情况存在 偏差。4 月，新增专项债累 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 16 日 美国 4 月 CPI 点评：通胀持续低于预期，关税影响暂未显现 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 核心观点： 2025.05.12 美国 5 月宏观经济点评："负增"之下的 美国经济还能走多远？ 2025.05.08 4 月高频数据跟踪 4 月美国 CPI 同比 2.3%，低于预期，核心 CPI 同比 2.8%。4 月整体 CPI 同比增速 2.3%，预期 2.4%；环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%。核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，与前值和预期持平；环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%。4 月整体 CPI 同环比 均低于预期，核心 CPI 与预期持平，反映关税通胀压力暂未传导至月度价 格数据。叠加 5 月 12 日中美关税谈判结果超预期，市场对美国通胀走高 的担忧有所缓和。我们提示，尽管短期内特朗普关税政策边际放缓，通胀 平稳下行，但美国 2025 年关税整体水平仍然显著提升，远期通胀压力并 未解决，不宜低估下半年通胀上行压力。 非核心方面，能源价格同比下行、环比企稳，食品价格回落。受特朗普 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing increased performance differentiation, highlighting the importance of operational management and business strategy [3] - In 2024, the food and beverage sector is expected to achieve a modest single-digit growth, with revenue and net profit growth rates slowing down, indicating ongoing demand pressure [3][10] - Structural growth opportunities exist in sub-sectors like beverages and snacks, with some products/channels showing year-on-year growth rates exceeding 30% [3] Summary by Sections Overall Food and Beverage Industry - In 2024, the food and beverage sector achieved revenue of CNY 10,877.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.91%, with a slowdown of 4.06 percentage points [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 2,104.49 billion, growing by 6.07%, but also showing a slowdown of 10.35 percentage points [10] - The industry ranked 10th and 9th in revenue and net profit growth among 31 first-level industries [10] Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The baijiu industry saw revenue and profit growth exceeding 7% in 2024, with over half of A-share listed companies reporting growth [21] - High-end baijiu brands are shifting towards mid-to-high-end markets, with notable growth in brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [21][24] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the mid-range segment, with companies adopting diverse strategies to maintain market share [22][24] Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is characterized by strong performance from functional beverages, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage leading with a revenue growth of 40.63% [26][28] - The market is facing challenges from health-conscious consumer trends and competition from tea beverages [26] - Companies are encouraged to innovate and diversify their product offerings to adapt to changing consumer preferences [27] Snacks - The snack industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly through community group buying and e-commerce channels [29] - Companies like Wancheng Group and Yanjinpuzi are expanding rapidly, with Wancheng Group's revenue from snack stores increasing by 262.94% [29] - However, some companies face pressure due to declining foot traffic in physical stores and intense competition [30] Condiments - The condiment sector is benefiting from cost reductions and the expansion of compound condiments, with major players like Haitian Flavor Industry reporting strong performance [32][33] - The industry is expected to accelerate product upgrades and national expansion as the restaurant sector recovers [32] Beer - The beer industry is seeing a slowdown in consumption upgrades, but there are still growth opportunities in the craft beer segment [34][35] - Companies are focusing on product innovation and market penetration to adapt to changing consumer demands [34][35]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 12 日 4 月外贸数据点评："抢转口"为出口提供韧性 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 2025.05.08 投资要点： 4 月出口仍具韧性。以美元计价，4 月出口增速 8.1%，高于一季度出口增 速 6.4%，远超万得一致预期增速 0.8%。出口仍然具备韧性，主要源于 "抢转口"对出口的支撑。环比上看，4 月出口环比增速 0.6%，高于季 节性，同时，考虑到 3 月份抢出口冲量，4 月环比增速仍具韧性，指向出 口动能仍存。 分地区看，对美出口降温，对加拿大、东盟、拉美地区出口大幅提升。新 兴经济体方面，4 月，我国对东盟出口增速较上月几乎翻倍，其中，对越 南出口增速高达 22.5%。对印度出口增速 21.7%。我国对拉丁美洲出口增 速提升明显。发达经济体方面，对美国出口降温。同时，对加拿大、欧盟 出口提升。数据上看，4 月份出口"抢转口"迹象明显：中国对东盟、欧 ...

Production Side - As of the fourth week of April, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.35%, up 0.92 percentage points from the previous week, higher than last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 41.98%, up 0.84 percentage points, also above last year's average[11] - The operating rate for electric furnaces was 64.10%, down 0.99 percentage points but still higher than last year's average[11] - Major industrial product inventories have decreased, with rebar inventory down 3.33% to 197.38 million tons[27] Demand Side - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities reached 172.39 million square meters, a 15.71% increase from the previous week, but still lower than last year's average[53] - The land transaction area was 11.33 million square meters, up 17.86% from the previous week, but below last year's average[53] - The average price of cement was 388.67 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the previous week, slightly lower than last year's average[63] Price Trends - The PPI for copper was 76,822 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous week, higher than last year's average[85] - The PPI for rebar was 3,466 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous week, but lower than last year's average[85] - The CPI for agricultural products showed a decline in wholesale prices for pork, vegetables, and fruits, while beef and mutton prices increased[84]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 22 日 3 月财政数据点评：收入降幅收窄，支出持续提高 [Table_Author] 陈国文 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524070001 证书:S1320523020004 风险提示：基本面修复偏离预期，宏观政策超预期。 相关报告 一季度经济数据点评：供需端均实现"开 门红" 2025.04.18 3 月外贸数据点评：一季度出口仍强 2025.04.16 投资要点： 财政收入同比增速为负，但降幅改善。1 至 3 月一般公共预算收入同比增速达到- 1.1%，较前值降幅收窄，降幅改善的主因在于经济基本面修复进度加快。一般公共 预算收入完成进度为 27.4%，五年维度看表现中性偏快。 税收收入增速边际改善，非税收入增速边际下降。1 至 3 月税收收入同比增速为- 3.5%，降幅收窄。非税收入累计同比增速为 8.8%，较前值增幅收窄。受低基数因 素影响，国内增值税累计同比增速为 2.1%；企业所得税累计同比增速为-6.8%；国 内消费税累计同比增速 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 一季度经济数据点评：供需端均实现"开门红" [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： GDP：一季度实现"开门红"。一季度，实际 GDP 增速为 5.4%，名义 GDP 增速为 4.6%，与去年持平。平减指数为-0.8%，基本与去年四季度 齐平。需求端看，GDP 一季度开门红主要有两点原因，一方面，在"抢 出口"集中释放背景下，外需延续去年较强态势；另一方面，春节假期及 "两重两新"政策延续下，内需维持韧性。分产业看，第二、第三产业增 速分化。 生产：总量高增，结构调整。一方面，出口高增带动工业增加值同比提 升："抢出口"效应在一季度愈发显著，带动工业生产强劲。结构上看， 制造业、采矿业增加值同比增速较高。另一方面，产能利用率较低指向工 业生产结构调整：规上工业企业产能利用率处于较低分位水平，主要有两 方面的原因，一是地产投资较弱，建筑产业链相关的黑色冶炼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronics industry [6] Core Insights - The U.S. has provided tariff exemptions for certain electronic products, indicating a temporary relief for the industry, but long-term uncertainties remain due to ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China [3][5][19] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the new origin rules, which may enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Tariff Exemptions: Short-term Repair, Long-term Focus on Independence - The tariff exemption policy alleviates significant pressure on electronic product exports temporarily, covering a wide range of products including semiconductors and integrated circuits [10][12] - The exemption list does not differentiate Chinese goods, allowing them to benefit from the same tariff relief as products from other countries [14] - The U.S. reliance on Chinese imports for exempted products exceeds 20%, highlighting the challenges in decoupling from Chinese electronics [18][20] 2. Chip Origin Rules Released, Continuing Focus on Self-Control - The Semiconductor Industry Association has introduced new origin rules for integrated circuits, which may encourage domestic production and reduce the competitive edge of U.S. manufactured chips [24] - The new rules are expected to facilitate a shift towards domestic supply chains, providing a clearer path for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor sector [24] 3. Impacted Companies and Market Dynamics - Texas Instruments (TI) relies heavily on U.S. manufacturing, with approximately 20% of its market share in China, indicating potential vulnerabilities under new tariff regulations [25][40] - Analog Devices (ADI) is shifting focus towards increasing its U.S. production capacity, which may lead to higher exposure to U.S. tariffs [33][40] - NXP has a significant dependency on the Chinese market, with over 30% of its revenue coming from there, which could be affected by the new tariff landscape [48] - Qorvo and Skyworks are also heavily reliant on U.S. manufacturing, with their revenues from China declining, indicating a shift in market dynamics [55][63] - Intel's advanced manufacturing capabilities are primarily based in the U.S., and its growing market share in China may face challenges due to tariff implications [66]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company, FAW Jiefang, is positioned as a leading brand in the commercial vehicle sector, with a comprehensive product matrix and a strong market presence across various segments [3][4][10]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 330,000 vehicles in 2025, entering a new product cycle with significant growth potential [3][36]. - The "SPRINT2030" international strategy aims for global sales exceeding 500,000 units by 2030, with 180,000 units expected from overseas markets [4]. - The company has seen a doubling of sales in the new energy vehicle segment over the past two years, with expectations for continued high growth [4][10]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach in smart connectivity and autonomous driving technologies, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and safety [5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - FAW Jiefang has a rich history of over 70 years and is recognized as the most valuable brand in the commercial vehicle industry, with cumulative production exceeding 9 million units [14][15]. - The company is controlled by China FAW Group, which holds a 62.18% stake, ensuring strong backing and resources for growth [17][18]. Domestic Market Leadership - The company maintains a leading position in several market segments, including heavy-duty trucks, where it has been the top seller for nine consecutive years [3][36]. - In 2024, the company achieved total truck sales of 250,500 units, reflecting a 4.22% year-on-year increase despite a challenging market environment [36]. International Market Growth - The company is expanding its international footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Australia, leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance export opportunities [4][10]. New Energy Market - FAW Jiefang is actively pursuing a comprehensive strategy in new energy vehicles, with a focus on electric, hybrid, and fuel cell technologies, aiming for a market share increase to the top three in the industry by 2024 [4][10]. Smart Connectivity and Technology - The company is leading in the application of smart connectivity technologies, with multiple projects underway to commercialize autonomous driving solutions across various scenarios [5][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenues of 64.28 billion yuan, 71.32 billion yuan, and 78.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.7%, 11.0%, and 9.9% [10][36]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 733 million yuan, with a significant growth forecast of 17.7% [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company, FAW Jiefang, is positioned as a leading brand in the Chinese commercial vehicle industry, with a comprehensive product matrix covering various market segments. It has achieved significant market share in multiple categories, including heavy-duty trucks, where it has maintained the top position for nine consecutive years [3][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable government policies, including subsidies for vehicle replacements, which are anticipated to stimulate demand in the commercial vehicle market [9][34]. - FAW Jiefang has a robust international expansion strategy, aiming to increase its global sales significantly by 2030, with a focus on markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Australia [4][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - FAW Jiefang has a rich history of over 70 years and is recognized as the most valuable brand in the commercial vehicle sector in China, with cumulative production exceeding 9 million vehicles [14][15]. - The company has a complete supply chain and production system, emphasizing research and development, which allows it to cover all market segments effectively [21][23]. Domestic Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in key market segments, with a sales target of 330,000 vehicles for 2025, marking a significant year for new product launches [3][36]. - The heavy-duty truck segment remains a traditional strength, with the company holding a leading market share [3][36]. International Market Growth - FAW Jiefang is accelerating its international market presence through the "SPRINT2030" strategy, aiming for global sales of over 500,000 vehicles by 2030, with 180,000 vehicles expected to be sold overseas [4][9]. New Energy Market - The company is actively expanding its new energy vehicle offerings, with sales doubling over the past two years and a projected rise in market share to the top three in the industry by 2024 [4][9][10]. - The "15333" strategy outlines a comprehensive approach to new energy vehicles, covering various technological routes [4][10]. Intelligent Connectivity Technology - FAW Jiefang is leading in intelligent connectivity technology, with multiple applications in various scenarios, supported by a "data + AI" cloud platform [5][10]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 642.78 billion, CNY 713.22 billion, and CNY 783.59 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 9.7%, 11.0%, and 9.9% [10][34]. - The projected net profit for the same period is CNY 7.33 billion, CNY 11.68 billion, and CNY 14.57 billion, with growth rates of 17.7%, 59.3%, and 24.8% respectively [10][34].