1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, bond yields "declined first and then rose", with an overall slight decline. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield remained around 1.78%, down about 5BP from the previous week's high of 1.83%. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.29%, with the central value down about 2BP from the previous week. The long - end decline was larger, driving the term spread to widen by 3BP to 48.6BP. The main reasons for the decline in bond yields are the policy tone of the Two Sessions, the central bank's continuation of a "precise, powerful, flexible and appropriate" monetary policy, low capital prices, geopolitical conflicts, and the slow progress of macro - economic repair. The bond market is in an operating pattern supported by a loose environment with limited supply disturbances. In the future, attention should be paid to the phased impact of geopolitical changes, the implementation of Two Sessions policies, and the issuance rhythm of government bonds on the bond market [3][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Aspect - The monetary policy continues the loose orientation, and market liquidity remains abundant. The policy tone is clearly loose, with the government continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and focusing on key areas. There was a large - scale net withdrawal in the open - market operations this week, with a net withdrawal of 1.36 trillion yuan. However, the central bank used repurchase operations to hedge the due funds, and the overall liquidity of the banking system remained abundant [4] Fundamental Aspect - The growth target is realistically lowered, and the economic repair momentum is weak. The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, which is slightly lower but in line with expectations. The manufacturing PMI in February was in the contraction range, and high - frequency data showed that the economic repair was slow, with the production and price ends remaining weak [5] Supply Aspect - The issuance scale has rebounded, and the supply pressure has increased temporarily. The overall bond issuance scale this week reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with a net supply increase. Both interest - rate bonds and credit bonds increased in supply, and local government bonds were the main contributor to the increase. The government's fiscal deficit rate is maintained at 4%, and the supply of ultra - long - term bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, which will relieve the long - end supply concerns in the short term [6] Capital Aspect - Liquidity remains abundant, and the capital price center has moved down. The inter - bank and financial institution capital interest rates have generally declined, and the market liquidity has maintained a loose pattern. Although the central bank's capital withdrawal in the OMO market and repurchase market was higher than the investment this week, the capital price remained low, indicating that the overall liquidity of the banking system is abundant [7] Overseas Market Aspect - The sudden conflict between the US and Iran had a limited impact on Treasury bonds. On February 28, the conflict between the US - Israel and Iran led to a blockage of oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices. It also pushed up the prices of safe - haven assets such as gold, but had little impact on Treasury bond yields [7]

Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, transitioning from a single target of 5.0% in 2025, allowing for policy flexibility amid external uncertainties[3] - Historical examples show that range targets can yield effective results, such as achieving 6.7% in 2016 and 6.1% in 2019 against set ranges[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains proactive, with a deficit rate around 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 230 billion yuan from the previous year, aligning with the GDP growth target[4] - Special bonds issuance remains at 1.3 trillion yuan, focusing on high-efficiency investment projects[4] - New special bond scale is 4.4 trillion yuan, with a shift in focus from land reserve to major project construction and debt replacement[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy maintains a moderately loose stance, emphasizing efficiency and low financing costs, with potential adjustments based on economic fundamentals[5] - Structural monetary policy tools are favored, with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in several rates to enhance credit support in key areas[5] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Strengthening domestic demand is crucial for achieving the growth target, with a focus on repairing internal demand weaknesses observed in 2025[6] - A new 100 billion yuan fund is established to stimulate consumption and investment through various financial support mechanisms[6] - Consumption enhancement initiatives include a 250 billion yuan allocation for consumer subsidies, slightly lower than the previous year's 300 billion yuan[6] Investment Efficiency - Investment policies are shifting towards enhancing efficiency, with 800 billion yuan allocated for major engineering projects in 2026[7] - Central government investment is set at 755 billion yuan to stabilize infrastructure and public service investments[7] - New policy financial tools will issue 800 billion yuan, increasing from 500 billion yuan in 2025, to leverage social capital for investment[7] Structural Upgrades - The report emphasizes upgrading traditional industries, promoting high-quality service sector development, and advancing the smart economy[8] - The focus on traditional manufacturing, which still accounts for over 60% of total manufacturing revenue, highlights its importance for employment and price recovery[8] Risk Management - The approach to risk management is shifting from passive response to proactive prevention, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations[10] - Measures include reforms to housing fund systems to release housing demand and enhance the quality of housing construction[10] Social Welfare - The prioritization of social welfare in government tasks has increased, aiming to improve residents' income expectations and expand the economic growth demand base[9] - Long-term strategies include optimizing income distribution and enhancing public service provisions to stabilize and elevate consumption rates[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, affected by the Spring Festival and other seasonal factors, the overall business climate in China weakened, and the structural differentiation continued. The manufacturing, service, and construction industries all faced different degrees of challenges, with the manufacturing and service industry business climate in the contraction range, and the construction industry continuing to contract, but showing marginal improvement in demand, employment, and expectations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Manufacturing Industry - **Overall business climate**: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range for two consecutive months, and the recovery momentum slowed down again [1] - **Demand side**: The new order index was 48.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range for two consecutive months. The new export order dropped significantly by 2.8 percentage points to 45.0%, and the external demand business climate was obviously insufficient. The difference between new orders and new export orders widened to 3.6 percentage points, indicating that external demand drag was more prominent. The backlog order index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 44.0%, further confirming the lack of demand [2] - **Supply side**: The production index in February decreased by 1 percentage point to 49.6%, falling into the contraction range after three consecutive months of expansion, indicating a slowdown in production activities. The finished - goods inventory index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 45.8%, and the enterprise's willingness to replenish inventory weakened. The supplier delivery time decreased by 1 percentage point to 49.1%, falling into the contraction range for the first time after 12 consecutive months of expansion, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers slowed down. The employment index decreased slightly to 48.0%, and the enterprise's employment business climate continued to weaken. In February, the decline in finished - goods inventory was mainly due to active destocking, supplemented by passive destocking [2] - **Price aspect**: The raw material purchase price index dropped 1.3 percentage points from a high level to 54.8% but remained in the expansion range. The ex - factory price index was 50.6%, the same as the previous month, and remained above the boom - bust line. The scissors gap between purchase price and ex - factory price narrowed, indicating that cost transmission to the downstream improved, and the enterprise's profit pressure was marginally relieved. However, in the context of weak demand, the enterprise's purchase intention was still insufficient, and the purchase volume index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 48.2%, remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months [3] - **Enterprise and industry differentiation**: At the enterprise level, large enterprises were strong while small and medium - sized enterprises were weak. The business climate index of large enterprises rose 1.2 percentage points to 51.5%, remaining in the expansion range for three consecutive months. The business climate index of medium - sized and small enterprises decreased by 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points to 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, and continued to be in the contraction range. At the industry level, the high - tech manufacturing industry continued to be in the expansion range but the growth momentum slowed down; the business climate of the equipment manufacturing industry declined slightly and fell below the boom - bust line; the basic raw material industry and the consumer goods industry continued to be in the contraction range [3][4] Service Industry - **Overall business climate**: The service industry business climate index in February was 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but it had fallen into the contraction range for four consecutive months [5] - **Demand and employment**: The new order index decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 45.7%, and the employment index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 46.6%. The business activity expectation index decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 55.8%, indicating a decline in enterprise confidence [5] - **Price aspect**: The input price index rose 1.5 percentage points to 51.2%, and the sales price index rose slightly to 49.0%. The cost - side pressure increased while the terminal price - raising ability was still weak, and the profit was under pressure [5] - **Industry differentiation**: The slight rebound of the service industry business climate in February was mainly due to industries benefiting from the Spring Festival consumption effect, such as accommodation, catering, culture, sports, and entertainment, whose business climate was above 60%. The business activity indexes of capital market services, real estate, etc., were all below the critical point [5] Construction Industry - **Overall business climate**: The construction industry index in February decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2%, falling into the contraction range for two consecutive months, and the overall industry business climate was still weak [6] - **Demand, employment, and expectation**: The new order index rose 2.1 percentage points to 42.4%; the employment index rose 1.4 percentage points to 42.5%; the business activity expectation index rose 1.1 percentage points to 50.9%. Although demand and employment were in the contraction range, the obvious upward trend and improved expectations reflected that the resumption of work and production after the festival would be gradually launched [6] - **Price aspect**: The input price index decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 49.1%; the sales price index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.6%. The cost pressure was relieved, but the terminal price was still weak. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the construction activities and project demands of construction enterprises showed off - season characteristics. After the festival, with the promotion of resumption of work and production and the successive start of key investment projects, the business climate of the construction industry would gradually recover [6]

Production Side - In February, the average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces was 79.98%, slightly up but still weak[3] - The operating rates for electric furnaces, rebar, and cement mills were 36.96%, 33.21%, and 19.28%, respectively, all lower than the previous month[3] - Inventory levels for rebar, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, iron ore, and float glass increased, with month-on-month growth rates of 24.59%, 9.23%, 11.37%, 2.44%, and 13.35%[3] Demand Side - In February, the average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 32.84% year-on-year, while land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 0.89%[4] - The average weekly express delivery volume was 3.079 billion pieces, down 24.56% month-on-month, while movie box office revenue increased by 192.32% to 1.476 billion yuan[4] - The average number of domestic flights was 14,855, up 15.27% month-on-month[4] Price Side - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 0.02% month-on-month and 5.03% year-on-year[5] - Chemical product prices increased by 0.78% month-on-month but decreased by 7.25% year-on-year[5] - The price of lithium carbonate surged by 117.95% year-on-year, while the price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon increased by 19.98% year-on-year[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [5] Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing an "involution" dilemma, primarily due to supply-demand mismatches and intensified homogenized competition. This situation stems from the significant capacity built from prior capital investments, which is now misaligned with the stable growth phase of global energy transition demands [3][10] - The "anti-involution" policy framework is a coordinated effort involving multiple tools, aiming to reshape the industry by establishing rules, setting boundaries, and adjusting incentives. This policy is expected to not only stabilize prices but also transform the competitive landscape of the photovoltaic sector [3][4][26] - The "anti-involution" movement signifies a pivotal transition for the Chinese photovoltaic industry, moving from a phase of rapid growth to one of maturity, with a focus on value reconstruction rather than price wars [4][46] Summary by Sections 1. Reasons for "Anti-Involution" - The current "involution" crisis in the photovoltaic industry is fundamentally a result of supply-demand mismatches and intensified homogenized competition, exacerbated by excessive capacity and stagnant demand growth [9][10] 2. Construction of the "Anti-Involution" Policy System - The central government has established a governance framework combining legal regulation, administrative oversight, and industry self-discipline to address the "involution" issue [15][21] - Key policies include setting market-based competition rules and promoting quality standards to guide the industry towards healthier competition [16][20] 3. Impact of "Anti-Involution" - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to rebalance supply and demand, leading to a price recovery process. For instance, the price of polysilicon has rebounded from a low of 35,400 CNY/ton to 53,600 CNY/ton [29][39] - The industry is witnessing a significant differentiation among companies, with those possessing price elasticity and new technologies likely to benefit first from these changes [38][40] 4. Future Outlook - The year 2026 is designated as a critical year for governance in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on eliminating "involution" and enhancing quality standards [47] - The industry is expected to transition from a focus on quantity to one emphasizing quality and technological innovation, with a shift towards a more sustainable and value-driven competitive landscape [49][50] 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on segments with marginal improvements and leading companies, particularly in the polysilicon sector, which is expected to benefit from price recovery [52] - Emphasis should also be placed on companies with core technological capabilities that can drive innovation and valuation restructuring [52]

[Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 上周长端债券收益率先升后降，短端略有上行。周中 10 年期国债收益率较 节前上升 4BP 至 1.829%，周五下降 4BP 回落至 1.788%； 1 年期国债收益率 较节前提高 1BP 至 1.33%。债券收益率上行主要受三因素影响：一是节后资 金集中到期，资金面阶段性偏紧，叠加地方债发行提速，加剧长端波动；二 是节后权益市场持续走强，对债市情绪形成一定压制；三是 10Y 下破 1.80% 后，交易盘集中止盈。在央行释放流动性、地缘政治等因素影响下，周五长 端收益率下行。 政策面，央行结构对冲，流动性总体平衡。（1）央行通过公开市场操作对冲 资金到期。节后首周，OMO 市场资金回笼量达 2.3 万亿元，为对冲资金到期 影响，投放量高达 1.57 万亿元，资金回笼规模达 7200 亿元。资金到期回 笼主要集中于周初，至周末资金投放已显著高于回笼。（2）MLF 超额续作。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Positive" for the gold industry [6] Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: increased uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies and heightened geopolitical risks, particularly regarding potential military actions in the Middle East [7][8] - The gold price reached $5,132 per ounce as of February 24, with a peak of $5,250 per ounce, marking a 2.74% increase compared to pre-Spring Festival levels [4] - The report anticipates that gold prices will maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, despite potential limitations on further price increases due to various economic factors [8][9] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration's large-scale tariffs, leading to a temporary halt in related import duties. However, the administration quickly introduced alternative tariffs, indicating a continued focus on trade policy as a tool for geopolitical strategy [3][5] - The political landscape in the U.S. is influencing tariff decisions, with Trump's approval ratings declining to around 40%, suggesting increased domestic pressure as the 2026 midterm elections approach [3] Gold Price Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing strong demand driven by fears surrounding global trade and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which are expected to sustain bullish sentiment [7][8] - The report notes that while gold prices are likely to remain strong, there are factors that may limit significant upward movement, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential easing of U.S.-China relations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The central banks of major global economies have used secondary - market treasury bond trading as a tool for liquidity and interest rate regulation. The Fed has a comprehensive treasury - bond - centered asset - liability management framework, while the People's Bank of China is promoting the normalization of treasury bond trading to upgrade monetary policy tools and enhance interest rate regulation. The report analyzes the differences and similarities between China and the US in operation modes and logics and forecasts future policy paths [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Fed's Treasury Bond Trading: Linked with Monetary Policy and Full - Curve Operation - **Execution by the New York Federal Reserve Bank**: The New York Fed conducts treasury bond transactions with primary dealers through the FedTrade system. The bonds are included in the SOMA, and the multi - price bidding mechanism is used. The upper limit of a single treasury bond held by the SOMA is set to 70% of the bond's outstanding amount [11]. - **Predominantly Treasury Bonds with a Steady Increase in Non - Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds account for about two - thirds of the Fed's securities assets. From the end of 2020 to October 2025, the proportion of treasury bonds decreased from 69.2% to 65%, while non - treasury bonds increased from 30.8% to 35%. Medium - and long - term treasury bonds and mortgage - backed securities are the largest in scale [12]. - **Full - Curve Holding with Balanced Short - and Long - Term Distribution**: As of the end of October 2025, treasury bonds with a maturity of 1 - year and below accounted for about 17% of the Fed's treasury bond balance, and different - term bonds were evenly distributed to support short - term liquidity regulation and long - term interest rate stability [16]. - **Predominantly Buying and Closely Linked with Monetary Policy**: From 2020 - 2025, the Fed's bond - buying scale reached $3.37 trillion, far exceeding the selling scale of $687.5 million. During the interest - rate cut cycle, the Fed increased bond purchases; during the interest - rate hike cycle, it reduced bond purchases [18]. 3.2 People's Bank of China's Treasury Bond Trading: Improving Tools and Strengthening Regulation - **Initiation of Treasury Bond Trading**: In 2024, the central bank initiated treasury bond trading to enrich policy tools, adjust the yield curve, support the real economy, and ease the pressure of government bond issuance. The monetary policy's investment structure shifted from "reverse repurchase + MLF" to "reverse repurchase + treasury bond trading" [23]. - **Suspension of Treasury Bond Trading**: Due to the off - season of treasury bond issuance, excessive decline in yields, diversification of monetary investment tools, and pressure on the exchange rate, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading in January 2025 [31]. - **Restart of Treasury Bond Trading**: In October 2025, the central bank restarted treasury bond trading to control yield risks, cooperate with fiscal policy, supplement policy tools, and relieve the pressure on banks' liquidity [36]. 3.3 Normalization of Treasury Bond Trading: Operation Modes and Impact on Policy Combinations - **Operation Outlook**: In terms of direction, net buying will be the dominant approach to replenish policy tool reserves and relieve the pressure on the banking system. In terms of term, short - term bond buying will be the main focus, supplemented by long - term bond buying. In terms of scale, the net buying scale will be higher in the first half of 2026 to match the fiscal rhythm [40]. - **Impact on Policy Combinations**: It will expand the base - money supply channels and postpone the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts. It will make interest rate regulation more flexible and slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, with a possible 1 - time cut of 5 - 10 BP in 2026. It will stabilize the yield central point and optimize the yield curve shape [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads are continuously widening, reaching a ten - year high. The report analyzes the driving mechanisms and characteristics of these two key spreads, revealing the differences in dominant forces and structural change trends of different term spreads [1]. - In 2026, the steepening of the yield curve will continue, and the 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads will generally widen marginally. The 10Y - 1Y spread will be steepened by monetary easing and may widen, while the 30Y - 10Y spread will be repaired by supply and rise in an oscillatory manner [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10Y - 1Y Spread: Short - end Dominant, Long - end Amplifying - **Driving Factors: Policy Anchor, Growth Expectation, and Supply - demand Structure** - The 10Y - 1Y spread reflects the relative changes among short - term policy interest rates, medium - and long - term growth and inflation, and bond supply - demand structure. Short - term interest rates are more sensitive to monetary policy and the money market, while long - term interest rates reflect future growth trends, inflation expectations, and economic cycle changes. Bond supply - demand structure differences and investor behavior also affect the spread [9]. - **Pricing Logic: A Stable Negative Dynamic Equilibrium Relationship between 1Y and 10Y - 1Y** - Short - term interest rates determine the core direction of the 10Y - 1Y spread. After removing the influence of interest rate central migration, the 1 - year Treasury yield and the spread show a clear negative correlation. Long - term interest rates have a limited and unstable impact on the 10Y - 1Y spread [10][13]. - **Periodic Deviation: Structural Disturbance under Short - end Dominance** - The short - term interest rate and the 10Y - 1Y spread generally show a strong negative correlation, but there are also periodic changes in their correlation during the interest rate central switching stage. The 1 - year yield dominates the spread direction, and the negative correlation between the spread and the 1 - year yield may deviate or weaken in the short term. The correlation between the spread and the 10 - year Treasury yield is weak [17]. 3.2 30Y - 10Y Spread: The Dominance Shifting to the Ultra - long End, Spread Repricing - **Driving Factors of the 30Y - 10Y Spread: Differentiation in Supply - demand, Expectation, and Term Sensitivity** - The 30Y - 10Y spread reflects the differences in supply - demand structure, long - term expectations, and policy sensitivity between long - term and medium - long - term Treasuries. Its core drivers include supply - demand structure differences, differences in long - term economic growth and inflation expectations, and the impact of policy uncertainty and term sensitivity differences [25]. - **Core Pricing Logic: The Ultra - long End is Becoming the Dominant Force of the Spread** - The correlation between the 10 - year Treasury yield and the 30Y - 10Y spread is generally weak. The 30 - year Treasury yield has a more stable positive linkage with the spread, indicating that the ultra - long - end interest rate is playing an increasingly prominent role in driving the 30Y - 10Y spread [26][27]. - **Stage Switching: Multiple Combination Forms of Interest Rate Central Changes** - The pricing center of the 30Y - 10Y spread is gradually shifting to the ultra - long end. In different macro - economic and policy environments, the spread may show multiple combination forms, and the mid - term trend shows that the ultra - long end is gradually becoming the core anchor of spread pricing [34][43]. 3.3 Outlook: The Steepening of the Curve Continues, and the Double Spreads Widen - **10Y - 1Y Spread: Steepened by Easing, May Widen** - In the first half of 2026, the 10Y - 1Y spread may widen. The strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation will lower the short - term interest rate, and the front - loaded fiscal policy will increase the supply pressure, with the long - term pressure being higher [44][45]. - **30Y - 10Y Spread: Repaired by Supply, Rise in an Oscillatory Manner** - In 2026, the supply premium will replace the liquidity premium as the dominant factor of the 30Y - 10Y spread. In the first half of 2026, the 30Y - 10Y spread will remain high and oscillate, and the center may widen further [46].

Production Side - In January, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces was 78.96%, showing a slight increase but still weak[3] - The operating rates for electric furnaces and rebar were 62.44% and 38.77%, respectively, both higher than the previous month's average[3] - Cement mill operating rate fell to 27.92%, a decrease from last month[3] - Chemical product operating rates generally improved, with soda ash, PVC, and PTA at 84.36%, 79.12%, and 76.10%, respectively, all significantly higher than last month[3] Demand Side - In January, the average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.64% year-on-year, while land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 32.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars significantly cooled down, while movie box office revenue dropped by 11.21% year-on-year and 25.26% month-on-month[4] - The average subway passenger volume in ten major cities was 62.89 million, up 5.19% year-on-year and 0.82% month-on-month[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products rose by 5.55% year-on-year, while the chemical product price index increased by 3.70% month-on-month but decreased by 7.37% year-on-year[5] - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 8.45% and 6.39% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 32.26% and 15.58%, respectively[6] - Rebar prices remained low, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.88%[6] Risk Factors - Risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and overseas policies exceeding expectations[7]