Production Side - As of the fourth week of April, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.35%, up 0.92 percentage points from the previous week, higher than last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 41.98%, up 0.84 percentage points, also above last year's average[11] - The operating rate for electric furnaces was 64.10%, down 0.99 percentage points but still higher than last year's average[11] - Major industrial product inventories have decreased, with rebar inventory down 3.33% to 197.38 million tons[27] Demand Side - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities reached 172.39 million square meters, a 15.71% increase from the previous week, but still lower than last year's average[53] - The land transaction area was 11.33 million square meters, up 17.86% from the previous week, but below last year's average[53] - The average price of cement was 388.67 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the previous week, slightly lower than last year's average[63] Price Trends - The PPI for copper was 76,822 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous week, higher than last year's average[85] - The PPI for rebar was 3,466 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous week, but lower than last year's average[85] - The CPI for agricultural products showed a decline in wholesale prices for pork, vegetables, and fruits, while beef and mutton prices increased[84]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 22 日 3 月财政数据点评：收入降幅收窄，支出持续提高 [Table_Author] 陈国文 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524070001 证书:S1320523020004 风险提示：基本面修复偏离预期，宏观政策超预期。 相关报告 一季度经济数据点评：供需端均实现"开 门红" 2025.04.18 3 月外贸数据点评：一季度出口仍强 2025.04.16 投资要点： 财政收入同比增速为负，但降幅改善。1 至 3 月一般公共预算收入同比增速达到- 1.1%，较前值降幅收窄，降幅改善的主因在于经济基本面修复进度加快。一般公共 预算收入完成进度为 27.4%，五年维度看表现中性偏快。 税收收入增速边际改善，非税收入增速边际下降。1 至 3 月税收收入同比增速为- 3.5%，降幅收窄。非税收入累计同比增速为 8.8%，较前值增幅收窄。受低基数因 素影响，国内增值税累计同比增速为 2.1%；企业所得税累计同比增速为-6.8%；国 内消费税累计同比增速 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 一季度经济数据点评：供需端均实现"开门红" [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： GDP：一季度实现"开门红"。一季度，实际 GDP 增速为 5.4%，名义 GDP 增速为 4.6%，与去年持平。平减指数为-0.8%，基本与去年四季度 齐平。需求端看，GDP 一季度开门红主要有两点原因，一方面，在"抢 出口"集中释放背景下，外需延续去年较强态势；另一方面，春节假期及 "两重两新"政策延续下，内需维持韧性。分产业看，第二、第三产业增 速分化。 生产：总量高增，结构调整。一方面，出口高增带动工业增加值同比提 升："抢出口"效应在一季度愈发显著，带动工业生产强劲。结构上看， 制造业、采矿业增加值同比增速较高。另一方面，产能利用率较低指向工 业生产结构调整：规上工业企业产能利用率处于较低分位水平，主要有两 方面的原因，一是地产投资较弱，建筑产业链相关的黑色冶炼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronics industry [6] Core Insights - The U.S. has provided tariff exemptions for certain electronic products, indicating a temporary relief for the industry, but long-term uncertainties remain due to ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China [3][5][19] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the new origin rules, which may enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Tariff Exemptions: Short-term Repair, Long-term Focus on Independence - The tariff exemption policy alleviates significant pressure on electronic product exports temporarily, covering a wide range of products including semiconductors and integrated circuits [10][12] - The exemption list does not differentiate Chinese goods, allowing them to benefit from the same tariff relief as products from other countries [14] - The U.S. reliance on Chinese imports for exempted products exceeds 20%, highlighting the challenges in decoupling from Chinese electronics [18][20] 2. Chip Origin Rules Released, Continuing Focus on Self-Control - The Semiconductor Industry Association has introduced new origin rules for integrated circuits, which may encourage domestic production and reduce the competitive edge of U.S. manufactured chips [24] - The new rules are expected to facilitate a shift towards domestic supply chains, providing a clearer path for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor sector [24] 3. Impacted Companies and Market Dynamics - Texas Instruments (TI) relies heavily on U.S. manufacturing, with approximately 20% of its market share in China, indicating potential vulnerabilities under new tariff regulations [25][40] - Analog Devices (ADI) is shifting focus towards increasing its U.S. production capacity, which may lead to higher exposure to U.S. tariffs [33][40] - NXP has a significant dependency on the Chinese market, with over 30% of its revenue coming from there, which could be affected by the new tariff landscape [48] - Qorvo and Skyworks are also heavily reliant on U.S. manufacturing, with their revenues from China declining, indicating a shift in market dynamics [55][63] - Intel's advanced manufacturing capabilities are primarily based in the U.S., and its growing market share in China may face challenges due to tariff implications [66]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company, FAW Jiefang, is positioned as a leading brand in the commercial vehicle sector, with a comprehensive product matrix and a strong market presence across various segments [3][4][10]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 330,000 vehicles in 2025, entering a new product cycle with significant growth potential [3][36]. - The "SPRINT2030" international strategy aims for global sales exceeding 500,000 units by 2030, with 180,000 units expected from overseas markets [4]. - The company has seen a doubling of sales in the new energy vehicle segment over the past two years, with expectations for continued high growth [4][10]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach in smart connectivity and autonomous driving technologies, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and safety [5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - FAW Jiefang has a rich history of over 70 years and is recognized as the most valuable brand in the commercial vehicle industry, with cumulative production exceeding 9 million units [14][15]. - The company is controlled by China FAW Group, which holds a 62.18% stake, ensuring strong backing and resources for growth [17][18]. Domestic Market Leadership - The company maintains a leading position in several market segments, including heavy-duty trucks, where it has been the top seller for nine consecutive years [3][36]. - In 2024, the company achieved total truck sales of 250,500 units, reflecting a 4.22% year-on-year increase despite a challenging market environment [36]. International Market Growth - The company is expanding its international footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Australia, leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance export opportunities [4][10]. New Energy Market - FAW Jiefang is actively pursuing a comprehensive strategy in new energy vehicles, with a focus on electric, hybrid, and fuel cell technologies, aiming for a market share increase to the top three in the industry by 2024 [4][10]. Smart Connectivity and Technology - The company is leading in the application of smart connectivity technologies, with multiple projects underway to commercialize autonomous driving solutions across various scenarios [5][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenues of 64.28 billion yuan, 71.32 billion yuan, and 78.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.7%, 11.0%, and 9.9% [10][36]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 733 million yuan, with a significant growth forecast of 17.7% [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company, FAW Jiefang, is positioned as a leading brand in the Chinese commercial vehicle industry, with a comprehensive product matrix covering various market segments. It has achieved significant market share in multiple categories, including heavy-duty trucks, where it has maintained the top position for nine consecutive years [3][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable government policies, including subsidies for vehicle replacements, which are anticipated to stimulate demand in the commercial vehicle market [9][34]. - FAW Jiefang has a robust international expansion strategy, aiming to increase its global sales significantly by 2030, with a focus on markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Australia [4][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - FAW Jiefang has a rich history of over 70 years and is recognized as the most valuable brand in the commercial vehicle sector in China, with cumulative production exceeding 9 million vehicles [14][15]. - The company has a complete supply chain and production system, emphasizing research and development, which allows it to cover all market segments effectively [21][23]. Domestic Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in key market segments, with a sales target of 330,000 vehicles for 2025, marking a significant year for new product launches [3][36]. - The heavy-duty truck segment remains a traditional strength, with the company holding a leading market share [3][36]. International Market Growth - FAW Jiefang is accelerating its international market presence through the "SPRINT2030" strategy, aiming for global sales of over 500,000 vehicles by 2030, with 180,000 vehicles expected to be sold overseas [4][9]. New Energy Market - The company is actively expanding its new energy vehicle offerings, with sales doubling over the past two years and a projected rise in market share to the top three in the industry by 2024 [4][9][10]. - The "15333" strategy outlines a comprehensive approach to new energy vehicles, covering various technological routes [4][10]. Intelligent Connectivity Technology - FAW Jiefang is leading in intelligent connectivity technology, with multiple applications in various scenarios, supported by a "data + AI" cloud platform [5][10]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 642.78 billion, CNY 713.22 billion, and CNY 783.59 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 9.7%, 11.0%, and 9.9% [10][34]. - The projected net profit for the same period is CNY 7.33 billion, CNY 11.68 billion, and CNY 14.57 billion, with growth rates of 17.7%, 59.3%, and 24.8% respectively [10][34].

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 16 日 分产品看，劳动密集型产品对出口贡献减弱。3 月，纺织纱线、服装、鞋 靴、陶瓷产品等劳动密集型产品出口增速较上月改善明显。,农产品出口较 上月明显上升，其中，水海产品、粮食出口增速较高。机电产品、高技术 产品出口依旧维持较强韧性。成品油、稀土、钢材、铝材等资源品出口增 速仍处在负增区间。从贡献度看，一季度，箱包、纺织纱线、服装、鞋 帽、陶瓷等劳动密集型产品对出口增速的贡献率较去年全年相比大幅下 滑。机电产品是出口增速最大贡献项。 进口方面，大宗商品价格低迷拖累进口增速。3 月，进口同比依旧负增。 一季度进口累计增速-7.1%，低于全年 1.1%。分产品看，进口增速大幅下 降主要因为农产品及部分资源品的拖累。一季度，农产品拖累进口增速 1.3 个百分点。金属资源品中，铁矿拖累进口增速 1.9 个百分点。能源类 资源品中，煤、成品油、天然气进口增速降幅扩大，共拖累进口增速 1.1 个百分点。大宗产品进口增速下降，主要在于大宗商品的价格依旧处于低 位。机电产品、高技术产品进口增速提高，共拉动进口增速 3.6 个百分 点。 关税政策反复下，预计出口短期呈结构 ...

行业研究｜有色金属 2025 年 04 月 15 日 证券研究报告 二季度行业策略：关税浪潮后，铜市影响几何？ [Table_Author] 李纵横 分析师 Email:lizongheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524090001 投资要点： 同时，对于进口铜关税政策可能于下半年落地，跨洋价差虽然受 4 月初铜 价回调的影响有所收窄，但在政策博弈期间，价差预期将继续存在，后续 或围绕特定区间波动，相关套利需求可以为铜价提供一定支撑。而美国对 于全球铜市的虹吸效应将使得其他地区精铜供应趋紧，提示关注其对于年 内铜市供需结构的潜在影响。 基本面视角来看，铜精矿年内可贡献增量空间有限，预期增量规模 50 万 吨，供给缺口预计持续拉大，矿端参与产业链利润分配话语权将进一步提 升。2025 年矿冶矛盾难以得到有效解决，长单价格费用的下行将进一步 大幅压缩国内冶炼厂利润空间，企业盈利将严重依赖于硫酸等副产品价 格，冶炼行业的产能去化或将真正提上日程。需求端，地产需求依旧低 迷，电网建设在逆周期调节背景下增量需求可期，白色家电销量强势，以 旧换新政策刺激下，相关需求看好。考虑特朗普关税政策对于需求侧的冲 击， ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 15 日 短评：特朗普关税政策升级或受限于美债危机等现实约束 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 证书:S1320523020004 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 核心观点： 特朗普出台"对等关税"仅仅一周后再次反转。4 月 2 日，特朗普对外公 布对等关税，对全球 185 个贸易伙伴加征 10%-50%不等的关税税率，整 体加征关税的范围和幅度大幅超出市场预期。4 月 9 日，特朗普又对外宣 布暂停所谓对等关税 90 天（中国除外），仅仅一周时间内关税政策再次反 转。原先 4 月 2 日特朗普"对等关税"分为 10%的基准关税和"一国一 议"的对等关税两部分，后者是根据 2024 年美国与其他国家贸易逆差和 进口额的比值逐一定制的。而 4 月 9 日特朗普暂停的正是这部分逐一定制 的对等关税，而保留了对原先收对等关税影响国家 10%的基准关税。本次 对等关税暂停不包括中国；美国当前对华关税已达 145%。 4 月 11 日美国豁免电子、半导体产品对等关税，但 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2024, the total demand in the food and beverage industry is under pressure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in social retail consumption, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to previous years [3][12] - The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will see steady progress in 2025, supported by three main factors: increased consumer subsidies, potential valuation recovery, and accelerated industry innovation [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a more resilient market outlook [3][36] Group 2 - The report identifies that the performance of the food and beverage sector has been mixed, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending remains volatile [12][30] - It notes that the liquor segment may see a strategic shift, with a focus on demand cultivation as the key to future growth [4][31] - The report suggests that the condiment sector could benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry and the acceleration of chain operations, leading to increased market concentration [4][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dairy sector is poised for growth driven by strong domestic demand and a focus on product upgrades, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements and demand expansion [4][31] - It highlights that the snack food market remains fragmented, with supply chain advantages becoming more pronounced, and emphasizes the importance of revenue growth following scale expansion [4][31] - The beer segment is noted for its stable production but faces pressure on sales volume and pricing, with a focus on innovation and structural upgrades [4][31] Group 4 - The report discusses the overall market performance, indicating that the food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 8% in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the industry [23][30] - It mentions that the food and beverage sector's revenue growth has been primarily driven by supply-side optimization, with demand remaining weak [30][31] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing double-digit growth, while liquor and processed foods faced declines [30][31]