宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 2024年10月16日 9月金融数据点评:政策转向后,金融数据有望企稳 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020004 陈国文 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点: 社融存量增速再度回落。9月新增社融 3.76 万亿,同比少增 3692 亿,社 融存量增速环比回落 0.1 个百分点至 8.0%。结构上看,社融仍然延续了 5 月以来的结构特征,政府债同比多增是主要支撑项,人民币贷款同比少增 是主要拖累项。 企业、居民部门信贷同比均少增。企业部门新增短贷 4600亿,同比少增 1086 亿;新增中长期贷款 9600亿,同比少增 2944 亿;从企业短贷来 看,前期"挤水分"影响或边际减弱。9月企业短贷新增规模已修复至过 去五年均值。从企业中长贷来看,当前企业中长期融资需求仍然偏弱。 "融资-投资-生产-销售"的正循环仍然不畅。居民部门新增短期贷款 2700 亿,同比少增 515 亿;新增中长期贷款 2300 亿,同比少增 3170 亿。从居民短贷来看,当月居民短贷 ...

M Global Idea Podcast | Thoughts on the Market October 7, 2024 08:42 AM GMT Why the Fed's Next Move May Matter Less Following the US Federal Reserve's September rate cut, labor data may have more impact on markets than further cuts. Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research, explains why. Play Audio Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Andrew Sheets Strategist Andrew.Sheets@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2905 Collection Podcast Series Today's VVebcasts Your daily guide to all Morgan Stanley Researc ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the US Microeconomic sector, involving economists from a team led by Abigail Watt Core Points and Arguments - The call is structured as a weekly update, indicating a regular analysis of microeconomic trends in the US [1] - Abigail Watt introduces the session and mentions the presence of colleagues Alan Depmeister and Sonia Meskin, suggesting a collaborative approach to the analysis [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - A reminder for participants to submit questions online indicates an interactive element to the call, which may provide additional insights during the discussion [1]

美联储降息落地，四季度债市怎么投 20241009 摘要 • 华富恒稳纯债基金是一款追求低波动、稳健收益的纯债基金，其核心投资 策略是久期和流动性管理，并在动态避险的基础上追求适度收益。该基金 不参与股票、权证及可转换债券的投资，专注于固定收益类资产，以远离 股市波动。 • 该基金适合风险等级为 R2 及以上的投资者，业绩比较基准为中证全债指 数收益率。截至 2023 年 8 月 31 日，华富恒稳纯债 A 今年以来回报率为 3.26%，近一年回报率为 4.53%，大幅超越同期中证存在债券型基金指数， 并在银河同类排名中位列前 16%。 • 近年来，由于权益市场波动加剧，市场风险偏好显著下降，存款利率持续 下行，定期存款吸引力减弱，稳健投资者可选择空间减少，但对低波动、 稳健类产品需求旺盛。纯债基金因其低波动、稳定收益特性受到关注。 • 数据显示，自 2007 年以来，万德短期和中长期纯债基金指数连续 17 年实 现正收益，总体收益曲线长期向上。因此，这类风险可控且正收益概率高 的资产成为了许多投资者的重要选择。 • 根据万德数据，截至2023年6月30日，短期纯债基金融资规模达到14,954 亿元，比上一季 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the investment strategies for the bond market in the fourth quarter. The participants include a researcher from Haitong Securities and a representative from Huafu Fund. Core Points and Arguments - The call aims to explore the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the bond market and investment strategies for the upcoming quarter [1] - The host introduces the topic and the guest speaker, Chen Wenguang from Huafu Fund, who will share insights on the subject [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call sets the stage for a deeper analysis of market conditions following the Federal Reserve's decisions, indicating a focus on potential investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [1]

各位投资者大家晚上好我是姜静静那今天还是非常高兴跟大家相约在假期最后一天的9点钟的交商宏观周周谈那今天呢我们来聊聊美联储的向西预期降温以及整个假期海外的一些事件的复盘其实关于美联储呢应该说是新股民不关心可能只有老股民关心然后甚至说可能散户也不关心只有机构关心的一个话题 但是为什么我们在这个时间节点要聊这个内容呢有两个原因啊第一呢首先其实大家在整个假期应该对于国内的很多因素都有反复的复盘了所以我们可能再去探讨这些问题呢可能略显有点多余包括我们下午的总量视野还有上一集在29号的周则谈其实也谈了很多我们对于国内的看法第二点呢 在情绪高涨的时候大家可能会忽视所有的利空就像情绪低落的时候也会忽略很多的利多比如说我们在应该9月中旬还是这个下旬天浅密一点可能就是22号或者15号的周周谈其实我们就谈到过9月份的高层数据是有一些边界好转的但是呢我们当时跟很多客户入演的时候大家都觉得这就是季节性 那么讲起来之后呢又会觉得可能这些季节性本身也是基本面的好转只不过没想到后面有这么多政策所以呢我们还是应该在这个时间节点谈一些我觉得比较长期的问题而且坦率地讲现在我们看待很多资本市场的现象行为可能真的不能只在 国内的基本面这样的一个维度上 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for September 2024 is 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the expansion threshold[7] - New orders index in manufacturing improved marginally to 49.9%, up 1.0 percentage points, yet remains below the threshold, indicating insufficient demand[9] - The production index recorded 51.2%, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing activities, while the inventory indices for raw materials and finished goods are below the critical point, suggesting inadequate replenishment[10] Group 2: Services Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for September 2024 dropped to 49.9%, marking the first time this year it has fallen below the expansion threshold[14] - The new orders index in the services sector is at 45%, indicating a lack of demand, while the employment index is at 45.5%, reflecting insufficient hiring activity[14] - Despite the decline, the business activity expectations index remains above the threshold at 54.6%, suggesting optimism for future activities[14] Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI improved to 50.7%, remaining above the expansion threshold, indicating increased expansion momentum[15] - The new orders index in construction is at 39.5%, signaling pressure on demand, while the employment index is at 40%, indicating insufficient hiring in the sector[15] - The business activity expectations index for construction is at 53.1%, suggesting positive outlook for future activities[15] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The overall economic outlook shows marginal improvement in manufacturing, but persistent challenges in demand and supply dynamics remain[17] - Risks include potential deviations from expected fundamental recovery, unexpected macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical risks[18]

宏观周周谈：美联储降息预期降温，有何影响 20241007 摘要 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Well, it's good to have you here. There is a lot going on, and we were saying, obviously, we want to kind of start macro, which we often do with you. And first up, the upbeat labor market, the Fed finally now cutting interest rates. You've been beating the drum for some time about the Fed to cut rates. At the same time, we had Treasury Secretary, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers out saying the half a point cut was a mistake. Stanley Druckenmiller, the hedge fund billionaire, he believes the Fed shoul ...

木头姐：谈美联储利率、就业报告和人工智能 摘要 • 尽管近期经济活动数据被下调，但劳动力市场仍保持弹性，9 月份新增就 业岗位 25.4 万个。然而，由于美联储加息，住房和非住宅建筑等行业正 在经历衰退。 • 某些行业的通货紧缩趋势并非天生就是负面的，因为它们可能由降低成本 和价格的技术创新所驱动。电动汽车价格因创新而下降就是明证。 • 虽然通货膨胀率最初徘徊在 3.5-4% 左右，但目前已降至 3% 以下，而且 由于货币负增长，以及企业出于对就业保障的担忧而降低价格以吸引消费 者，预计通货膨胀率还将进一步下降。 • 由于生产率提高，失业率超过 5% 的可能性正在被重新考虑。企业可能会 选择降价来维持消费需求，而不是增加失业率。 • 无论美国大选结果如何，创新依然至关重要。过度监管导致创新转移到海 外，两位总统候选人似乎都一致主张推动创新以应对国家挑战。 • 当前的监管环境，尤其是关税和美国证券交易委员会和联邦贸易委员会的 限制，阻碍了创新和经济活动。减轻这些负担将有利于投资环境。 问答 考虑到拉里·萨默斯和斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒等人的不同意见，您是否认为美联储最 近的降息决定是一个错误？ 绝对不是。经济活动的修 ...