证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 16 日 分产品看，劳动密集型产品对出口贡献减弱。3 月，纺织纱线、服装、鞋 靴、陶瓷产品等劳动密集型产品出口增速较上月改善明显。,农产品出口较 上月明显上升，其中，水海产品、粮食出口增速较高。机电产品、高技术 产品出口依旧维持较强韧性。成品油、稀土、钢材、铝材等资源品出口增 速仍处在负增区间。从贡献度看，一季度，箱包、纺织纱线、服装、鞋 帽、陶瓷等劳动密集型产品对出口增速的贡献率较去年全年相比大幅下 滑。机电产品是出口增速最大贡献项。 进口方面，大宗商品价格低迷拖累进口增速。3 月，进口同比依旧负增。 一季度进口累计增速-7.1%，低于全年 1.1%。分产品看，进口增速大幅下 降主要因为农产品及部分资源品的拖累。一季度，农产品拖累进口增速 1.3 个百分点。金属资源品中，铁矿拖累进口增速 1.9 个百分点。能源类 资源品中，煤、成品油、天然气进口增速降幅扩大，共拖累进口增速 1.1 个百分点。大宗产品进口增速下降，主要在于大宗商品的价格依旧处于低 位。机电产品、高技术产品进口增速提高，共拉动进口增速 3.6 个百分 点。 关税政策反复下，预计出口短期呈结构 ...

行业研究｜有色金属 2025 年 04 月 15 日 证券研究报告 二季度行业策略：关税浪潮后，铜市影响几何？ [Table_Author] 李纵横 分析师 Email:lizongheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524090001 投资要点： 同时，对于进口铜关税政策可能于下半年落地，跨洋价差虽然受 4 月初铜 价回调的影响有所收窄，但在政策博弈期间，价差预期将继续存在，后续 或围绕特定区间波动，相关套利需求可以为铜价提供一定支撑。而美国对 于全球铜市的虹吸效应将使得其他地区精铜供应趋紧，提示关注其对于年 内铜市供需结构的潜在影响。 基本面视角来看，铜精矿年内可贡献增量空间有限，预期增量规模 50 万 吨，供给缺口预计持续拉大，矿端参与产业链利润分配话语权将进一步提 升。2025 年矿冶矛盾难以得到有效解决，长单价格费用的下行将进一步 大幅压缩国内冶炼厂利润空间，企业盈利将严重依赖于硫酸等副产品价 格，冶炼行业的产能去化或将真正提上日程。需求端，地产需求依旧低 迷，电网建设在逆周期调节背景下增量需求可期，白色家电销量强势，以 旧换新政策刺激下，相关需求看好。考虑特朗普关税政策对于需求侧的冲 击， ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 15 日 短评：特朗普关税政策升级或受限于美债危机等现实约束 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 证书:S1320523020004 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 核心观点： 特朗普出台"对等关税"仅仅一周后再次反转。4 月 2 日，特朗普对外公 布对等关税，对全球 185 个贸易伙伴加征 10%-50%不等的关税税率，整 体加征关税的范围和幅度大幅超出市场预期。4 月 9 日，特朗普又对外宣 布暂停所谓对等关税 90 天（中国除外），仅仅一周时间内关税政策再次反 转。原先 4 月 2 日特朗普"对等关税"分为 10%的基准关税和"一国一 议"的对等关税两部分，后者是根据 2024 年美国与其他国家贸易逆差和 进口额的比值逐一定制的。而 4 月 9 日特朗普暂停的正是这部分逐一定制 的对等关税，而保留了对原先收对等关税影响国家 10%的基准关税。本次 对等关税暂停不包括中国；美国当前对华关税已达 145%。 4 月 11 日美国豁免电子、半导体产品对等关税，但 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2024, the total demand in the food and beverage industry is under pressure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in social retail consumption, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to previous years [3][12] - The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will see steady progress in 2025, supported by three main factors: increased consumer subsidies, potential valuation recovery, and accelerated industry innovation [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a more resilient market outlook [3][36] Group 2 - The report identifies that the performance of the food and beverage sector has been mixed, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending remains volatile [12][30] - It notes that the liquor segment may see a strategic shift, with a focus on demand cultivation as the key to future growth [4][31] - The report suggests that the condiment sector could benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry and the acceleration of chain operations, leading to increased market concentration [4][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dairy sector is poised for growth driven by strong domestic demand and a focus on product upgrades, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements and demand expansion [4][31] - It highlights that the snack food market remains fragmented, with supply chain advantages becoming more pronounced, and emphasizes the importance of revenue growth following scale expansion [4][31] - The beer segment is noted for its stable production but faces pressure on sales volume and pricing, with a focus on innovation and structural upgrades [4][31] Group 4 - The report discusses the overall market performance, indicating that the food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 8% in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the industry [23][30] - It mentions that the food and beverage sector's revenue growth has been primarily driven by supply-side optimization, with demand remaining weak [30][31] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing double-digit growth, while liquor and processed foods faced declines [30][31]

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, the total number of M&A transactions in the A-share market decreased by 8.71% to 5,774 transactions compared to 2023[7] - The total transaction amount for 2024 was approximately CNY 2.35 trillion, remaining stable compared to the previous year[8] - Major asset acquisitions saw a significant increase, with 95 transactions totaling CNY 261.7 billion, a 135% increase year-on-year[10] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The number of regulatory reviews for M&A transactions dropped to 15, a decrease of 42.31%, marking a 10-year low[12] - The approval rate for M&A transactions was 93.33%, with only one transaction being rejected[12] Group 3: Market Trends - "A eats A" transactions increased to 8 in 2024, up from 2 in 2023, indicating a recovery in this type of transaction[14] - Companies with a market capitalization of over CNY 10 billion accounted for 35.97% of asset acquisition transactions, with their total acquisition amount reaching CNY 1.36 trillion, representing 79.36% of the total[17][18] Group 4: Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical industry led M&A activity with nearly 400 transactions, making up about 11% of the total[21] - Economic regions with higher development levels, such as Guangdong and Beijing, showed more active M&A activities, with Guangdong initiating 572 transactions worth approximately CNY 237.5 billion[20]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating marginal improvement and remaining above the expansion threshold[7] - The new orders index for manufacturing recorded 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points, suggesting continuous improvement in demand[12] - The production index is at 52.6%, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing activities, while the employment index is at 48.2%, showing a need for improvement in labor conditions[14] - Both raw material and finished goods inventory indices are below the critical point, indicating insufficient replenishment activity[16] - The new export orders index is at 49%, reflecting a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold, indicating challenges in international trade[19] Group 2: Services and Construction Sectors - The services PMI increased to 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating a marginal improvement in the service sector's performance[22] - The new orders index for services is at 47.1%, below the critical point, indicating insufficient demand in the services sector[25] - The construction PMI rose to 53.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in the construction sector[28] - The new orders index for construction is at 43.6%, suggesting pressure on demand, while the employment index is at 41.4%, indicating a need for improvement in labor conditions[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The overall economic outlook remains positive with the composite PMI at 51.4%, indicating ongoing recovery and stability in the economy[8] - Risks include potential deviations from expected fundamental recovery, macroeconomic policy surprises, and geopolitical risks[33]

Production - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, indicating strong supply-side performance despite high base effects[20] - Export-driven industries, such as machinery and textile manufacturing, showed significant growth, with aerospace and electrical machinery industries growing by 20.8% and 12.0% respectively[21] - The cumulative growth rate of export delivery value in February reached 6.2%, surpassing last year's annual growth rate[21] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth improved to 4.1% in January-February, up 0.9 percentage points from the full year of 2024[30] - Broad infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.9%, driven primarily by central government-led projects, particularly in power infrastructure, which grew by 33.5%[30] - Real estate investment decline narrowed to below -10.0% for the first time in eight months, with significant improvements in funding sources and sales[32] Consumption - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, primarily driven by a 4.3% increase in catering services, reflecting strong demand during the Spring Festival[50] - The "old-for-new" policy contributed to a 4.4% growth in retail sales of consumer goods, with essential consumption growing by 9.4%[50] - Significant growth in categories influenced by the "old-for-new" policy included home appliances and communication devices, with home appliances growing by 10.9%[56] Outlook - The economic data for 2025 shows a positive start, with demand-side improvements attributed to several factors, including concentrated consumption during the Spring Festival and supportive central investment projects[57] - Future uncertainties include potential impacts from U.S. tariff reviews and the effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus measures[57] - Local government debt optimization may open up investment space, potentially leading to a recovery in narrow infrastructure growth rates[57]

Production - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing being the largest contributor at 6.9%[10] - Export-driven industries, such as aerospace and electrical machinery, maintained high growth rates, with aerospace increasing by 20.8% and electrical machinery by 12.0%[11] - The cumulative growth rate of export delivery value in February reached 6.2%, surpassing the growth rate for the entire previous year[11] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth improved to 4.1% in January-February, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous year[18] - Broad infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.9%, driven primarily by central government-led projects, particularly in power infrastructure, which grew by 33.5%[18] - Real estate investment saw a narrowing decline, with a cumulative drop of less than 10.0% for the first time in nearly eight months[20] Consumption - Social retail sales (SR) increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, with restaurant services contributing significantly, rising by 4.3%[35] - The "old-for-new" policy led to high growth in consumer goods, with retail sales of limited goods increasing by 4.4%[39] - Essential consumption grew by 9.4%, driven by food and beverage sales, which contributed 5.0 percentage points to the growth[35] Outlook - The economic data for 2025 shows a positive start, with demand improving due to several factors, including the release of pent-up consumption during the Spring Festival and supportive central investment projects[40] - However, uncertainties remain for the second quarter, particularly regarding potential impacts from U.S. tariff reviews and the effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus measures[40] - The ongoing optimization of local government debt may open up investment space, potentially leading to a recovery in narrow infrastructure growth[40]

Revenue Insights - General public budget revenue for January to February decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a slow recovery in the economic fundamentals[1] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline, while non-tax revenue grew by 11%[1][2] - Corporate income tax saw a significant drop of 10.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in corporate operations[1][2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing at a higher rate of 8.6%[2][3] - Local government expenditure growth remained low at 2.7%, contributing to the overall sluggish fiscal expenditure growth[2][3] - The ratio of general public budget expenditure to revenue reached 102.8%, indicating a higher spending level compared to previous years[2][3] Fund and Debt Management - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%, reflecting a weak real estate market[2][3] - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with expenditure growth at 1.2%[2][3] - The government plans to issue 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for 2025, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year[3][4] Policy Outlook - The government aims for a more proactive fiscal policy, with a target deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, leading to a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan[3][4] - Continued emphasis on infrastructure and social spending is expected to support economic recovery[3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][10]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 13.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.60%, and net profit of 2.173 billion yuan, up 52.57% [4]. - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of the Osino gold mine project in Namibia, which is expected to add 127.2 tons of gold resources and contribute an annual production of 5 tons post-commissioning [6]. - The average annual price of gold in 2024 reached 2,387.98 USD/ounce, a 23% increase year-on-year, indicating a favorable market environment for gold investments [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.585 billion yuan, a 67.60% increase from 2023, and an operating profit of 3.181 billion yuan, up 51.67% [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.173 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 52.57% year-on-year [4][11]. - The company's gold production reached 8.04 tons, a 14.69% increase, while silver production was stable at 196.05 tons [5]. Cost and Profitability - The unit cost of gold production decreased significantly to 145.4 yuan/gram, down 17.59% from the previous year, leading to a gross profit margin of 73.54%, an increase of 12.78 percentage points [5]. - The company expects continued growth in revenue, forecasting 15.89 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 17% increase [11]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in gold prices, driven by economic risks and inflation expectations in the U.S. [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising gold prices due to its strong resource endowment and government backing [7].