证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 10 月 24 日 9 月经济数据点评：供给侧强，需求侧弱 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： GDP 实际增速放缓，平减指数略有收窄。三季度，实际 GDP 增速达 4.8%，累计增速 5.2%；名义 GDP 增速 3.7%，累计增速 4.1%，经济 "量增价跌"格局延续，但平减指数收窄至-1.1%。GDP 增速边际放缓， 主要因政策红利边际效应减弱导致需求下滑：一是"以旧换新"补贴效应 减弱，商品零售增速放缓；二是利润预期未明显修复且受高基数影响，制 造业投资放缓；三是"924"地产政策脉冲在上半年集中释放，进入下半 年后地产投资再度下滑。产业结构上，第二、三产业增速分别回落至 4.2%和 5.4%，第一产业则微升至 4.0%。 工业、服务业生产较强。9 月，工业增加值同比增速达 6.5%，高于市场 预期，较上月提升 1.3 个百分点；环比增长 0.6%，高于前值。服 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (First Coverage)" [6] Core Views - The company has undergone significant changes, transitioning to a new operational phase under the leadership of Shudao Group, which has become the controlling shareholder. The focus is on whether the company can achieve a rebirth after overcoming past challenges [3][21] - The development of the Duolong Copper Mine is a key factor in the company's long-term growth prospects, as it is the largest undeveloped copper mine in China, expected to significantly enhance the company's production capacity and profitability [4][5] Summary by Sections Historical Development - The company has experienced both peaks and troughs throughout its history, and it is now entering a new phase of operations under Shudao Group's guidance [3][14] Shudao Group's Entry - The entry of Shudao Group has allowed the company to shed historical burdens, resolving long-standing litigation and debt issues, and improving liquidity and capital structure [8] - Potential integration of mining resources from Shudao Group could enhance the company's phosphate chemical business, which currently faces challenges due to a lack of upstream resources [8] - The collaboration between resources and market opportunities is expected to transform the existing business model, addressing issues related to raw material supply, market expansion, and product consumption [8] Duolong Copper Mine Development - The long-term supply of copper is expected to face bottlenecks, with price expectations trending upwards. The development of the Duolong Copper Mine is anticipated to open up significant growth opportunities for the company [5][9] - The estimated annual production from the Duolong Copper Mine is projected to be between 263,700 to 273,400 tons of copper, along with gold and silver production, contributing significantly to the company's profitability [5][9] Existing Business - The company's current operations focus on phosphate chemicals and zinc smelting, with zinc smelting primarily contributing to revenue but facing limited profitability. The phosphate chemical segment is expected to improve with potential resource integration [9][10] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.561 billion, 3.729 billion, and 3.741 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits gradually improving [11][10] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to enter a positive growth trajectory in profitability due to improved liquidity and operational stability, with net profits projected to reach 30-40 billion yuan in the long term if the Duolong project is successfully developed [10][11]

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal revenue growth rate continues to improve, with an enhanced contribution from tax revenues. The overall fiscal expenditure progress is slow, but the decline in infrastructure - related expenditures has narrowed. Government - funded funds show a divergence between revenue and expenditure, with revenue lagging behind expenditure. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of incremental fiscal funds will help the economy operate smoothly, and more incremental policies are still expected [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Rate Continues to Improve, Tax Revenue Contribution Increases - The growth rate of general public budget revenue from January to September reached 0.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, and improved for three consecutive months. The central government's monthly revenue growth rate improved significantly, and the decline in cumulative growth rate narrowed to - 1.2%, while local fiscal revenue maintained positive growth at a cumulative rate of 1.8%. The fiscal revenue growth rate was slightly higher than the annual budget target by 0.1%, but the completion progress was 74.5%, lower than the historical average [11]. - Tax revenue growth significantly supported the improvement of fiscal revenue, while non - tax revenue growth declined sharply, turning into a negative drag on revenue growth. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 0.7%, reaching the highest value of the year. Non - tax revenue had negative single - month growth for five consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate turned slightly negative at - 0.4% [17]. - In terms of tax revenue structure, VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, individual income tax, and stamp duty all showed positive growth, while land and real - estate - related tax revenue decline was narrowing [18]. 3.2 Overall Expenditure Progress is Slow, Decline in Infrastructure - Related Expenditure Narrows - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.1%, the same as the previous value and lower than the annual budget target of 4.4%. The central government's expenditure growth rate dropped to a new low of 7.3% for the year, while the local government's expenditure growth rate was 2.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous value. The general public budget expenditure completion progress from January to September was 70.1%, the lowest in the past five years [20]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood - related expenditures remained the focus, and infrastructure - related expenditures improved. Social security and employment expenditures maintained a growth rate of 10%, and infrastructure - related expenditures such as energy conservation and environmental protection and transportation had a growth rate close to 20% for two consecutive months [21]. 3.3 Government - Funded Funds' Revenue and Expenditure Diverge, Revenue Lags Behind Expenditure - From January to September, the government - funded funds' revenue decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the annual budget growth target of 0.7%. The decline in land transfer fees was the main reason for the negative growth. The government - funded funds' expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, higher than the annual budget target of 23.1%. The revenue completion progress was 49.1%, and the expenditure completion progress was 60% [25]. - The issuance of local government special bonds accelerated, with the completion progress of new special bonds in September reaching about 83.6%, still slow in a five - year perspective [25]. 3.4 Incremental Funds are Implemented to Fill Gaps and Expand Investment In September, the National Development and Reform Commission established a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China has disbursed nearly 100 billion yuan. On October 17, the Ministry of Finance issued another 500 billion yuan in carry - over quotas. The implementation of incremental funds will help expand investment and support the stable operation of the economy in the fourth quarter. More incremental policies are still expected [5][30].

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 10 月 17 日 9 月金融数据点评：信用修复取决于盈利与财政合力 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 魏争 分析师 证书:S1320523020004 证书:S1320524100001 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:weizheng@lczq.com 投资要点： 社融存量增速回落至 8.7%。9 月新增社融 3.53 万亿元，同比少增 2339 亿元，社融存量增速较上月回落 0.1 个百分点至 8.7%。从分项来看，9 月 社融回落主要由政府债供给节奏放缓与人民币贷款走弱造成，而企业债与 表外票据融资形成一定支撑。整体上看，财政发力阶段性减弱、信贷派生 动力不足，使当月信用修复呈现结构性波动特征。 企业贷款有所分化。当月企业部门新增短贷 7100 亿，同比多增 2500 亿。一方面，票据与短贷的替代效应明显。9 月票据融资减少 4026 亿 元，同比少增 4920 亿，票据贴现利率上行约束了银行通过票据冲量的意 愿，部分企业流动性需求转向短期贷款，推动短贷多增；另一方面，银行 投放更偏短期化。在净息差承压的背景下，银行更 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 10 月 15 日 9 月外贸数据点评：低基数下出口增速反弹 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： 出口增速回升。以美元计价，9 月出口增速 8.3%，较上月抬升 3.9 个百分 点，高于 Wind 一致预期 5.7%。环比上看，9 月出口环比 2.2%，略低于 季节性。9 月出口反弹主要有两方面原因，一是低基数影响。2024 年 9 月出口同比增速为 2.3%，为年内次低点；二是对非美国家出口维持较强 韧性。高频数据上看，出口动能持续性有所减弱。一方面，9 月港口吞吐 量增速较高但边际下降：同比增速 5.7%，较上月下降 0.1 个百分点。另 一方面，CCFI、SCFI 综合指数 9 月均出现走弱迹象。 对非美地区出口延续韧性。从地区结构看，我国对非美经济体出口整体保 持韧性，尤其对非洲出口增速大幅跃升，对出口拉动首次超过东盟：9 月 同比增速达 56.4%，较上月加快 ...

证券研究报告 宏观专题研究 2025 年 10 月 14 日 美国《大而美法案》与特朗普财政政策框架 [Table_Author] 杨见一 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320525050001 证书:S1320523020004 核心观点： 美国新财年开启，《大而美法案》成为特朗普财政政策的核心框架。《大而 美法案》体现特朗普的财政主张，是以减税为核心，以国防、安全与关税 为支撑，以压缩福利为代价的政策组合。该法案永久化了上一任期的 TCJA 减税条款，并提高国防和边境执法领域、削减和重构医保、食品补 贴、新能源等领域补贴。根据官方机构估算，法案将使未来十年联邦赤字 累计增加约 3.4 万亿美元，扩大债务上限 5 万亿美元。在疫情时代宽财政 的高债务基础上，《大而美法案》的落地使得美国政府面临更高的赤字压 力。尽管赤字扩张释放了财政改革的空间，但在特朗普能否在现实操作中 实现真正意义上的财政改革，仍具有不确定性。 《大而美法案》主要分为减税及其他预算调整两大部分，呈现三个特点。 一是法案以永久化旧条款为 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Positive" for the gold market [5]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to increased market risk aversion, driving gold prices to new historical highs, with spot gold reaching over $4060 per ounce on October 13 [3]. - The impact of the current round of US-China trade friction is expected to be limited, as both economies have developed a basic understanding of each other's economic resilience, and upcoming high-level negotiations may lead to a consensus [4]. - The gold market is unlikely to replicate the bull market seen during the previous US-China tariff conflict, as the likelihood of tariffs being implemented is low, with only a 16.5% chance according to Polymarket data [4][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the US stock indices fell significantly due to the trade tensions, with the Dow Jones down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 2.71%, and Nasdaq down 3.56% on the announcement day [3]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, supported by strong buying interest as the market digests the impact of trade tensions [5]. Economic Indicators - The US government is facing a shutdown crisis, which raises concerns about the stability of the US dollar and sovereign debt, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with a 95.7% probability, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and support its price [7][14]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in gold-related companies, specifically mentioning Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), and Shandong Gold Mining (600547.SH) as potential targets [7].

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 10 月 13 日 9 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： 生产端看，开工率方面，化工品开工率多数改善，尤其石油沥青开工率改 善明显；钢铁开工率略回落；磨机运转率上升；汽车半钢胎开工率略放 缓。库存方面，水泥、沥青去库，指向基建领域实物量加速形成。产能利 用率总体改善：焦化、玻璃、水泥熟料、冷轧利用率回升。开工率方面， 9 月，电炉开工率、螺纹钢开工率均值分别为 61.70%、42.21%，较上月 略有回落；水泥磨机运转率环比上升，录得 38.21%；浮法玻璃开工率低 位震荡，录得 76.31%；化工品开工率多数出现改善：石油沥青开工率改 善明显，均值录得 34.38%，较上月大幅上升 10.35 个百分点，同比上升 32.34%； PVC、纯碱开工率第 9 月均值分别为 78.25%、87.04%，较上 月均上升；汽车全钢胎开工率上升、半钢胎开工率小幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed. The latest economic data shows that the economic growth momentum continues to slow down, with fixed - asset investment, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment declining, and real - estate investment still having double - digit declines. Consumption repair is unstable, and deflation pressure persists. The economic fundamentals are still weak, and incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints such as investment, consumption, and debt resolution risks [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Improves Continuously, Tax Revenue Increases Slightly - General public budget revenue growth rate continues to rise, with local fiscal revenue being the main contributor and the drag from central fiscal revenue weakening. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue reached 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, exceeding the annual budget target by 0.1%. The central fiscal revenue has been improving, with the decline narrowing for 6 consecutive months, while local fiscal revenue has maintained positive growth. However, the revenue completion progress is slow [12]. - Tax revenue turns to a slight increase, and non - tax revenue continues to shrink. From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turned positive to 0.02%, rising for 6 consecutive months. Securities trading stamp duty contributes significantly, while consumption tax, real - estate tax, and foreign - trade tax are still drags. The growth rate of non - tax revenue dropped to 1.5%, declining for 6 consecutive months [17]. 3.2 Fiscal Expenditure Growth Declines, Infrastructure Expenditure Growth Declines Significantly - Fiscal expenditure growth has declined across the board, with both central and local expenditures hitting new lows this year. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 3.1%, with the increase narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. The expenditure rhythm is the lowest in the same period in the past five years. The growth rate of central expenditure is still relatively high but has declined by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while local expenditure growth has declined for 4 consecutive months, mainly affected by factors such as the decline in land transfer income [22]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood expenditure has slowed down from a high level, and infrastructure expenditure has shrunk significantly. The growth rate of social security and employment expenditure has slightly increased, while the growth rates of education and health - care expenditure have slightly decreased. The growth rate declines of infrastructure - related expenditures such as agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and urban - rural community affairs have expanded [26]. 3.3 Government - Fund Revenue and Expenditure Growth Slows, Special Bond Issuance Speeds Up but Remains Slow - Government - fund revenue and expenditure growth is weak. The revenue side is under continuous pressure, with the year - on - year growth rate of government - fund revenue from January to August being - 1.4%, and the decline expanding. The expenditure side growth rate has marginally declined. The revenue growth rate is significantly lower than the expenditure growth rate, and the "mismatch" between revenue and expenditure progress highlights the debt - resolution pressure [28]. - Local government special bond issuance has accelerated but remains slow. From January to August, the completion progress of new special bonds was about 74.2%, an increase of about 11 percentage points from the previous value, but still 15 percentage points lower than the average in the same period from 2022 - 2024. The slow issuance is mainly restricted by debt resolution and tightened access to projects [28]. 3.4 Incremental Policies Are Approaching The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed to be stepped up. The economic growth momentum continues to slow down, consumption repair is unstable, and the economic fundamentals are still weak. Incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints [6][34].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25bps[1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts expected in 2025, but only one in 2026, suggesting a potential hawkish shift[1] - The Fed's decision is characterized as a "risk-management cut," emphasizing a cautious approach rather than a preemptive one[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed acknowledges a slowdown in the job market, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up but remaining low[3] - Inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed noting that inflation has moved up and remains elevated[3] - The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) shows an upward revision of GDP growth for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market pricing indicates expectations for a 25bps cut in October and December[8] - The market has priced in a total of 75bps of cuts across three meetings in 2025, but Powell's comments have tempered expectations for further cuts[8] - The S&P and Nasdaq experienced volatility, while the Dow Jones rose, and the dollar strengthened post-announcement[8]