Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing increased performance differentiation, highlighting the importance of operational management and business strategy [3] - In 2024, the food and beverage sector is expected to achieve a modest single-digit growth, with revenue and net profit growth rates slowing down, indicating ongoing demand pressure [3][10] - Structural growth opportunities exist in sub-sectors like beverages and snacks, with some products/channels showing year-on-year growth rates exceeding 30% [3] Summary by Sections Overall Food and Beverage Industry - In 2024, the food and beverage sector achieved revenue of CNY 10,877.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.91%, with a slowdown of 4.06 percentage points [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 2,104.49 billion, growing by 6.07%, but also showing a slowdown of 10.35 percentage points [10] - The industry ranked 10th and 9th in revenue and net profit growth among 31 first-level industries [10] Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The baijiu industry saw revenue and profit growth exceeding 7% in 2024, with over half of A-share listed companies reporting growth [21] - High-end baijiu brands are shifting towards mid-to-high-end markets, with notable growth in brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [21][24] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the mid-range segment, with companies adopting diverse strategies to maintain market share [22][24] Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is characterized by strong performance from functional beverages, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage leading with a revenue growth of 40.63% [26][28] - The market is facing challenges from health-conscious consumer trends and competition from tea beverages [26] - Companies are encouraged to innovate and diversify their product offerings to adapt to changing consumer preferences [27] Snacks - The snack industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly through community group buying and e-commerce channels [29] - Companies like Wancheng Group and Yanjinpuzi are expanding rapidly, with Wancheng Group's revenue from snack stores increasing by 262.94% [29] - However, some companies face pressure due to declining foot traffic in physical stores and intense competition [30] Condiments - The condiment sector is benefiting from cost reductions and the expansion of compound condiments, with major players like Haitian Flavor Industry reporting strong performance [32][33] - The industry is expected to accelerate product upgrades and national expansion as the restaurant sector recovers [32] Beer - The beer industry is seeing a slowdown in consumption upgrades, but there are still growth opportunities in the craft beer segment [34][35] - Companies are focusing on product innovation and market penetration to adapt to changing consumer demands [34][35]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 12 日 4 月外贸数据点评："抢转口"为出口提供韧性 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 2025.05.08 投资要点： 4 月出口仍具韧性。以美元计价，4 月出口增速 8.1%，高于一季度出口增 速 6.4%，远超万得一致预期增速 0.8%。出口仍然具备韧性，主要源于 "抢转口"对出口的支撑。环比上看，4 月出口环比增速 0.6%，高于季 节性，同时，考虑到 3 月份抢出口冲量，4 月环比增速仍具韧性，指向出 口动能仍存。 分地区看，对美出口降温，对加拿大、东盟、拉美地区出口大幅提升。新 兴经济体方面，4 月，我国对东盟出口增速较上月几乎翻倍，其中，对越 南出口增速高达 22.5%。对印度出口增速 21.7%。我国对拉丁美洲出口增 速提升明显。发达经济体方面，对美国出口降温。同时，对加拿大、欧盟 出口提升。数据上看，4 月份出口"抢转口"迹象明显：中国对东盟、欧 ...

Production Side - As of the fourth week of April, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.35%, up 0.92 percentage points from the previous week, higher than last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 41.98%, up 0.84 percentage points, also above last year's average[11] - The operating rate for electric furnaces was 64.10%, down 0.99 percentage points but still higher than last year's average[11] - Major industrial product inventories have decreased, with rebar inventory down 3.33% to 197.38 million tons[27] Demand Side - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities reached 172.39 million square meters, a 15.71% increase from the previous week, but still lower than last year's average[53] - The land transaction area was 11.33 million square meters, up 17.86% from the previous week, but below last year's average[53] - The average price of cement was 388.67 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the previous week, slightly lower than last year's average[63] Price Trends - The PPI for copper was 76,822 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous week, higher than last year's average[85] - The PPI for rebar was 3,466 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous week, but lower than last year's average[85] - The CPI for agricultural products showed a decline in wholesale prices for pork, vegetables, and fruits, while beef and mutton prices increased[84]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 22 日 3 月财政数据点评：收入降幅收窄，支出持续提高 [Table_Author] 陈国文 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524070001 证书:S1320523020004 风险提示：基本面修复偏离预期，宏观政策超预期。 相关报告 一季度经济数据点评：供需端均实现"开 门红" 2025.04.18 3 月外贸数据点评：一季度出口仍强 2025.04.16 投资要点： 财政收入同比增速为负，但降幅改善。1 至 3 月一般公共预算收入同比增速达到- 1.1%，较前值降幅收窄，降幅改善的主因在于经济基本面修复进度加快。一般公共 预算收入完成进度为 27.4%，五年维度看表现中性偏快。 税收收入增速边际改善，非税收入增速边际下降。1 至 3 月税收收入同比增速为- 3.5%，降幅收窄。非税收入累计同比增速为 8.8%，较前值增幅收窄。受低基数因 素影响，国内增值税累计同比增速为 2.1%；企业所得税累计同比增速为-6.8%；国 内消费税累计同比增速 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 一季度经济数据点评：供需端均实现"开门红" [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： GDP：一季度实现"开门红"。一季度，实际 GDP 增速为 5.4%，名义 GDP 增速为 4.6%，与去年持平。平减指数为-0.8%，基本与去年四季度 齐平。需求端看，GDP 一季度开门红主要有两点原因，一方面，在"抢 出口"集中释放背景下，外需延续去年较强态势；另一方面，春节假期及 "两重两新"政策延续下，内需维持韧性。分产业看，第二、第三产业增 速分化。 生产：总量高增，结构调整。一方面，出口高增带动工业增加值同比提 升："抢出口"效应在一季度愈发显著，带动工业生产强劲。结构上看， 制造业、采矿业增加值同比增速较高。另一方面，产能利用率较低指向工 业生产结构调整：规上工业企业产能利用率处于较低分位水平，主要有两 方面的原因，一是地产投资较弱，建筑产业链相关的黑色冶炼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronics industry [6] Core Insights - The U.S. has provided tariff exemptions for certain electronic products, indicating a temporary relief for the industry, but long-term uncertainties remain due to ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China [3][5][19] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the new origin rules, which may enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Tariff Exemptions: Short-term Repair, Long-term Focus on Independence - The tariff exemption policy alleviates significant pressure on electronic product exports temporarily, covering a wide range of products including semiconductors and integrated circuits [10][12] - The exemption list does not differentiate Chinese goods, allowing them to benefit from the same tariff relief as products from other countries [14] - The U.S. reliance on Chinese imports for exempted products exceeds 20%, highlighting the challenges in decoupling from Chinese electronics [18][20] 2. Chip Origin Rules Released, Continuing Focus on Self-Control - The Semiconductor Industry Association has introduced new origin rules for integrated circuits, which may encourage domestic production and reduce the competitive edge of U.S. manufactured chips [24] - The new rules are expected to facilitate a shift towards domestic supply chains, providing a clearer path for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor sector [24] 3. Impacted Companies and Market Dynamics - Texas Instruments (TI) relies heavily on U.S. manufacturing, with approximately 20% of its market share in China, indicating potential vulnerabilities under new tariff regulations [25][40] - Analog Devices (ADI) is shifting focus towards increasing its U.S. production capacity, which may lead to higher exposure to U.S. tariffs [33][40] - NXP has a significant dependency on the Chinese market, with over 30% of its revenue coming from there, which could be affected by the new tariff landscape [48] - Qorvo and Skyworks are also heavily reliant on U.S. manufacturing, with their revenues from China declining, indicating a shift in market dynamics [55][63] - Intel's advanced manufacturing capabilities are primarily based in the U.S., and its growing market share in China may face challenges due to tariff implications [66]

一汽解放｜000800｜商用车 2025 年 04 月 17 日 新能源市场再现龙头本色：全面布局纯电、混动、燃料电池三大技术路线， 销量连续两年实现翻倍增长，2025 年有望延续高增速。"支持政策+成本降 低"驱动新能源应用场景范围扩大，以旧换新补贴侧重新能源车型。公司 "15333"新能源战略布局完整技术路线新能源车型，已覆盖钢铁园区、冷 链物流、港口、工业园区等应用场景。公司新能源车型销量连续两年实现翻 倍增长，2024 年行业排名快速提升至第 3。 智能网联技术多场景布局领先行业：积极局智能驾驶战略，"数据+AI"云 平台助力下，2025 年有望加速多各场景的商业化落地。智能网联技术可降 低运营成本提高安全系数，政策支持下示范项目陆续开展。公司 L2、L2+、 L4 级产品已在矿山、港口、物流、环卫、口岸等场景实现应用，2025 年多 个智驾新产品将继续落地。同时，公司自主研发"车联网大数据云脑平台"， 通过"数据+AI"进一步驱动向智能化、低碳化转型。 证券研究报告 一汽解放首次覆盖：新周期下民族龙头品牌有望 续写发展新篇章 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@l ...

一汽解放｜000800｜商用车 2025 年 04 月 17 日 证券研究报告 一汽解放首次覆盖：新周期下民族龙头品牌有望 续写发展新篇章 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点： "解放"卡车的诞生标志着中国现代汽车工业的开始，产品历经七代更迭 已实现细分市场全覆盖，品牌价值连续多年行业居首。根据 2024 年年报， 一汽解放在 9 个细分市场中夺得行业第一，包括国内中重卡连续 9 年销量 第一、牵引车连续 18 年销量第一、载货连续 4 年销量第一、燃气车连续 4 年销量第一、轻型车增速行业第一、新能源中重卡头部品牌增速行业第一 以及海外销量复合增长率行业第一。 新能源市场再现龙头本色：全面布局纯电、混动、燃料电池三大技术路线， 销量连续两年实现翻倍增长，2025 年有望延续高增速。"支持政策+成本降 低"驱动新能源应用场景范围扩大，以旧换新补贴侧重新能源车型。公司 "15333"新能源战略布局完整技术路线新能源车型，已覆盖钢铁园区、冷 链物流、港口、工业园区等应用场景。公司新能源车型销量连续两年实现翻 倍增长 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 04 月 16 日 分产品看，劳动密集型产品对出口贡献减弱。3 月，纺织纱线、服装、鞋 靴、陶瓷产品等劳动密集型产品出口增速较上月改善明显。,农产品出口较 上月明显上升，其中，水海产品、粮食出口增速较高。机电产品、高技术 产品出口依旧维持较强韧性。成品油、稀土、钢材、铝材等资源品出口增 速仍处在负增区间。从贡献度看，一季度，箱包、纺织纱线、服装、鞋 帽、陶瓷等劳动密集型产品对出口增速的贡献率较去年全年相比大幅下 滑。机电产品是出口增速最大贡献项。 进口方面，大宗商品价格低迷拖累进口增速。3 月，进口同比依旧负增。 一季度进口累计增速-7.1%，低于全年 1.1%。分产品看，进口增速大幅下 降主要因为农产品及部分资源品的拖累。一季度，农产品拖累进口增速 1.3 个百分点。金属资源品中，铁矿拖累进口增速 1.9 个百分点。能源类 资源品中，煤、成品油、天然气进口增速降幅扩大，共拖累进口增速 1.1 个百分点。大宗产品进口增速下降，主要在于大宗商品的价格依旧处于低 位。机电产品、高技术产品进口增速提高，共拉动进口增速 3.6 个百分 点。 关税政策反复下，预计出口短期呈结构 ...

行业研究｜有色金属 2025 年 04 月 15 日 证券研究报告 二季度行业策略：关税浪潮后，铜市影响几何？ [Table_Author] 李纵横 分析师 Email:lizongheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524090001 投资要点： 同时，对于进口铜关税政策可能于下半年落地，跨洋价差虽然受 4 月初铜 价回调的影响有所收窄，但在政策博弈期间，价差预期将继续存在，后续 或围绕特定区间波动，相关套利需求可以为铜价提供一定支撑。而美国对 于全球铜市的虹吸效应将使得其他地区精铜供应趋紧，提示关注其对于年 内铜市供需结构的潜在影响。 基本面视角来看，铜精矿年内可贡献增量空间有限，预期增量规模 50 万 吨，供给缺口预计持续拉大，矿端参与产业链利润分配话语权将进一步提 升。2025 年矿冶矛盾难以得到有效解决，长单价格费用的下行将进一步 大幅压缩国内冶炼厂利润空间，企业盈利将严重依赖于硫酸等副产品价 格，冶炼行业的产能去化或将真正提上日程。需求端，地产需求依旧低 迷，电网建设在逆周期调节背景下增量需求可期，白色家电销量强势，以 旧换新政策刺激下，相关需求看好。考虑特朗普关税政策对于需求侧的冲 击， ...