Group 1: Legislative Progress - The "Big and Beautiful Act" narrowly passed in the Senate with a vote of 51:50 and will be sent to the House for a final vote[1] - The Senate version of the bill differs significantly from the House version submitted in May, necessitating a return to the House for a new vote[1] - House Speaker Mike Johnson aims to pass the bill before July 4[1] Group 2: Budgetary Differences - The Senate's revised budget plan is projected to increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion, compared to the House's $2.4 trillion increase[2] - Including interest costs, the Senate's total potential debt impact is $3.94 trillion, while the House's is $2.97 trillion[2] - The Senate version proposes a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, while the House version suggests a $4 trillion increase[2] Group 3: Key Issues and Risks - Major points of contention between the two chambers include Medicaid cuts, SNAP reductions, and the SALT deduction cap[2] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party may affect the speed and success of the bill's passage[4] - The potential for the House to reject the revised Senate version remains, depending on the extent of disagreements[3]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - Manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical threshold[8] - New orders index for manufacturing rose to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion territory, while the backlog of orders index remains below the threshold at 45.2%[13] - Production index improved to 51%, indicating an increase in manufacturing activity, while the employment index fell to 47.9%, suggesting ongoing labor market challenges[15] Group 2: Service and Construction PMI Insights - Service sector PMI decreased to 50.1%, but remains in the expansion zone, with new orders index at 46.9%, indicating insufficient demand[23] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8%, reflecting improved business activity, although the new orders index is still below the threshold at 44.9%[29] - Employment index in the construction sector recorded at 39.9%, indicating a lack of hiring activity[29] Group 3: Inventory and Price Trends - Manufacturing raw material inventory index at 48%, and finished goods inventory at 48.1%, both below the critical point, indicating insufficient replenishment[17] - Input prices for manufacturing recorded at 48.4%, while output prices at 46.2%, both below the threshold, suggesting pressure on profit margins[17] - Service sector input prices index at 50.2%, while sales prices index at 48.9%, indicating insufficient pricing power in the service industry[25] Group 4: Trade and Economic Outlook - Manufacturing import index at 47.8% and new export orders index at 47.7%, both below the threshold, indicating trade challenges[20] - Overall economic outlook remains cautious, with risks including deviations from expected fundamental recovery and geopolitical uncertainties[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is undergoing a valuation reconstruction driven by the rise of smart and connected vehicles, which is expected to lead to a "Davis Double" effect in 2025 [3][4]. - The market is shifting from price competition to value competition, with significant growth potential in the smart connected vehicle supply chain [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Automotive Market Analysis - The automotive industry in China has entered the smart connected vehicle era, supported by comprehensive policies [11][15]. - In 2023, China's automotive production reached over 30 million units, with a strong performance from domestic brands [12][19]. - By 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 50%, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [20][21]. 2. Smart Connected Vehicle Supply Chain Development - The smart connected vehicle supply chain is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with the overall market value expected to exceed one trillion [8][19]. - The integration of "vehicle-road-cloud" systems is becoming a new trend, enhancing the smart transportation ecosystem [8][19]. - The penetration rate of advanced driving assistance systems (L2 and above) is projected to increase significantly, benefiting from technological advancements and cost reductions [4][19]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies and high-growth segments within the supply chain, particularly those with core technologies and significant market shares [4][19]. - In the vehicle segment, domestic brands with strong technology and market presence are expected to maintain their competitive edge [4][19]. - In the smart component segment, companies specializing in intelligent chassis components are likely to receive more orders as the industry matures [4][19].

Fiscal Policy Progress - The general public budget expenditure target for 2025 is set at 29.7 trillion yuan, with 9.358 trillion yuan spent by April, achieving 31.5% of the annual target[1] - The deficit target for 2025 is 5.66 trillion yuan, with 1.2965 trillion yuan utilized by April, resulting in a usage progress of 22.9%[1] - Considering fund transfers and budget carryovers, the deficit usage progress stands at 16.8%[1] National Debt Issuance - The national debt balance for 2024 is 34.572 trillion yuan, with a limit of 35.2008 trillion yuan, leaving a remaining quota of 628.473 billion yuan[2] - As of June 15, the net financing amount for national debt reached 2.2001 trillion yuan, achieving 40.1% of the limit[2] - The issuance of special national bonds for 2025 is complete at 500 billion yuan, with a completion rate of 100%[2] Local Government Bonds - The balance of local government general bonds for 2024 is 16.7013 trillion yuan, with a limit of 17.2689 trillion yuan, leaving a remaining quota of 567.645 billion yuan[3] - By June 15, the net financing for local government general bonds reached 392.16 billion yuan, achieving 28.7% of the limit[3] - The completion rate for local government special bonds is 37.5%, with a remaining quota of 27.52065 trillion yuan[4]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - The growth rate of social financing (社融) remained stable at 8.7% in May, with new social financing of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Government bonds, corporate bonds, and foreign currency loans were the main supporting items for social financing, while weak entity credit continued to be the largest drag, indicating a weak internal financing willingness[9] - New corporate short-term loans amounted to 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230 billion yuan, while new medium- and long-term loans were 330 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170 billion yuan[21] Group 2: Household Sector Insights - Household short-term loans decreased by 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1 billion yuan, while new medium- and long-term loans were 74.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2 billion yuan[22] - The real estate market showed signs of marginal recovery, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreasing by 3.3% year-on-year, but rebounding by 8.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[22] Group 3: Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, while M2 growth rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%[35] - The increase in M1 was attributed to a low base effect from last year and a tendency for companies to hold cash rather than invest[35] - The marginal decline in M2 was influenced by a decrease in the attractiveness of deposits relative to wealth management products and an increase in fiscal deposits of 880 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.7 billion yuan[38] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The outlook for social financing growth is expected to fluctuate within the range of 8.5%-9.0%, with government bonds continuing to act as a stabilizer[44] - Key risks include macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations, slower demand recovery, and potential geopolitical risks[45]

Export Performance - In May, export growth was 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in momentum[3] - Cumulative export growth for May was 6.0%, higher than the annual growth rate from last year, suggesting continued resilience[3] - Exports to the US fell sharply by 34.5%, a decline of 13.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the EU increased by 12.0%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany contributing a growth rate of 21.5%[4] - Exports to Canada rose by 20.3%, indicating a continuation of transshipment trade[4] - ASEAN exports showed resilience with a contribution of 2.5 percentage points to overall export growth, accounting for 52.6% of the total[4] Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive products like bags, textiles, and footwear saw declines in export growth rates of -10.3%, -2.0%, and -5.6% respectively, dragging down overall export growth by 0.3 percentage points[5] - High-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, saw a significant increase in export growth of 33.4%[5] - Automotive exports improved significantly with a growth rate of 13.7%, up 9.3 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Trends - Import growth fell by 3.4%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining prices of bulk commodities like coal and crude oil[7] - Agricultural imports showed recovery with a growth rate of 0.7%, up 17.96 percentage points from the previous month, driven by soybeans and grains[7] Future Outlook - Export resilience is expected to continue in the short term, supported by adjustments in shipping capacity to the US and sustained demand from ASEAN[8] - However, potential pressures on exports are anticipated in the second half of the year due to changes in US tariff policies and the expiration of exemptions on certain goods[8]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical line, indicating weak manufacturing sentiment[7] - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, but remains below the critical line, suggesting insufficient demand[11] - The inventory indices for raw materials and finished products are both below the critical point, indicating inadequate replenishment sentiment in manufacturing[16] Group 2: Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, a rise of 0.1 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in business activities[21] - The new orders index for services is at 46.6%, below the critical line, pointing to weak demand conditions[21] - The business activity expectations index is at 56.5%, indicating a positive outlook for future service sector activities[21] Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI is recorded at 51%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, but still above the critical line, indicating ongoing expansion albeit at a slower pace[27] - The new orders index for construction is at 43.3%, suggesting pressure on demand[27] - The employment index in construction is at 39.5%, indicating insufficient hiring sentiment in the sector[27] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is supported by recent monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments aimed at economic recovery[30] - Risks include deviations from expected fundamental recovery, unexpected macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical uncertainties[31]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 29 日 短评：美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普 IEEPA 关税无效之后 [Table_Author] 杨见一 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320525050001 证书:S1320523020004 核心观点： 事件：5 月 28 日周三，美国国际贸易法院（CIT）裁定特朗普政府所有基 于 IEEPA 法案加征的关税均无效，要求停止征收相关关税。美国国际贸 易法院三位法官组成的合议庭认为，《国际紧急经济状态权力法》 （IEEPA）并未授权总统干预正常贸易，因此特朗普总统无权利用 IEEPA 对全球无限制性地加征关税，并要求特朗普在 10 天之内发布永久禁止滥 用 IEEPA 的新行政命令。目前，特朗普政府已经向联邦巡回法院提出上 诉，质疑联邦贸易法院的权威性。 美国国际贸易法院禁令覆盖哪些关税政策？特朗普上任以来颁布的关税政 策中，大部分通过国际贸易法方式落地。其中包括 2 月、3 月对墨西哥、 加拿大和中国施加的芬太尼关税和 4 月"解放日"颁布的全球 ...

Revenue Insights - General public budget revenue from January to April reached CNY 8.06 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points from the previous period[9] - Tax revenue showed a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 1.4 percentage points, indicating marginal improvement[11] - Non-tax revenue grew by 7.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous period[11] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period, with a completion rate of 31.5%[2] - Central government expenditure grew by 9%, while local government expenditure increased by 3.9%, indicating a stronger performance from the central government[2] - Social security and employment expenditure rose by 8.5%, making it the largest fiscal expenditure item for the month[50] Fund Revenue and Debt Insights - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -11.4%, reflecting a sluggish real estate market[75] - Government fund revenue fell by -6.7% year-on-year, although the decline narrowed by 4.3 percentage points, indicating marginal improvement[75] - The issuance progress of new special bonds by local governments was slow, with only 27% completed by April[75] Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery[3] - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, are expected to further stabilize economic growth[3]