Well, it's good to have you here. There is a lot going on, and we were saying, obviously, we want to kind of start macro, which we often do with you. And first up, the upbeat labor market, the Fed finally now cutting interest rates. You've been beating the drum for some time about the Fed to cut rates. At the same time, we had Treasury Secretary, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers out saying the half a point cut was a mistake. Stanley Druckenmiller, the hedge fund billionaire, he believes the Fed shoul ...

木头姐：谈美联储利率、就业报告和人工智能 摘要 • 尽管近期经济活动数据被下调，但劳动力市场仍保持弹性，9 月份新增就 业岗位 25.4 万个。然而，由于美联储加息，住房和非住宅建筑等行业正 在经历衰退。 • 某些行业的通货紧缩趋势并非天生就是负面的，因为它们可能由降低成本 和价格的技术创新所驱动。电动汽车价格因创新而下降就是明证。 • 虽然通货膨胀率最初徘徊在 3.5-4% 左右，但目前已降至 3% 以下，而且 由于货币负增长，以及企业出于对就业保障的担忧而降低价格以吸引消费 者，预计通货膨胀率还将进一步下降。 • 由于生产率提高，失业率超过 5% 的可能性正在被重新考虑。企业可能会 选择降价来维持消费需求，而不是增加失业率。 • 无论美国大选结果如何，创新依然至关重要。过度监管导致创新转移到海 外，两位总统候选人似乎都一致主张推动创新以应对国家挑战。 • 当前的监管环境，尤其是关税和美国证券交易委员会和联邦贸易委员会的 限制，阻碍了创新和经济活动。减轻这些负担将有利于投资环境。 问答 考虑到拉里·萨默斯和斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒等人的不同意见，您是否认为美联储最 近的降息决定是一个错误？ 绝对不是。经济活动的修 ...

各位投资者大家晚上好我是张静景那今天还是非常高兴跟大家相约在 假期最后一天的九点钟的照相宏观周周谈那今天呢我们来聊聊美联储的降息预期降温以及整个假期海外的一些事件的复盘其实关于美联储呢应该说是新股民不关心可能只有老股民关心然后甚至说可能散户也不关心只有机构关心的一个话题但是为什么我们在这个时间节点要聊这个内容呢 有两个原因第一呢首先其实大家在整个假期应该对于国内的很多因素都有反复的复盘了所以我们可能再去探讨这些问题呢可能略显有点多余包括我们下午的总量视野还有上一期在R9号的周则谈其实也谈了很多我们对于国内的看法第二点呢 在情绪高涨的时候大家可能会忽视所有的利空就像情绪低落的时候也会忽略很多的利多比如说我们在应该9月中旬还是这个下旬偏前面一点可能就是22号或者15号的周周谈其实我们就谈到过9月份的高频数据是有一些编辑好转的但是呢我们当时跟很多客户入演的时候大家都觉得这就是季节性 那么长起来之后呢又会觉得可能这些季节性本身也是基本面的好转只不过没想到后面有这么多政策所以呢我们还是应该在这个时间节点谈一些我觉得比较长期的问题而且坦率的讲现在我们看待很多资本市场的现象行为可能真的不能只在国内的基本面这样的一个维度上甚 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific stocks, but it emphasizes the importance of focusing on economic growth as a driver of returns rather than solely on rate cuts [21]. Core Insights - The current easing cycle is characterized by accelerating corporate profits, which is atypical compared to previous cycles where profits were generally decelerating [4][6]. - Value strategies are expected to outperform growth strategies due to the current economic conditions, with a particular emphasis on high dividend yield stocks [4][6]. - Quality and momentum factors have shown consistent performance in past easing cycles, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks in the current environment [33][34]. Summary by Sections Easing Cycle Analysis - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 has returned an average of 11% in the 12 months following the first rate cut, with stronger returns (21% on average) when excluding recessionary cycles [25][26]. - The report highlights that equities have outperformed long-term treasury bonds 50% of the time in easing cycles, with better performance noted in non-recessionary periods [25][26]. Sector and Style Trends - Defensive sectors tend to outperform cyclical sectors in the year following the first rate cut, regardless of recession status [33]. - Large-cap stocks have generally outperformed small and mid-cap stocks in non-recessionary scenarios, indicating a preference for larger companies in the current market [43][44]. Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on large-cap value stocks, which are currently considered to be of high quality, similar to growth stocks [4][6]. - High dividend yield stocks are expected to attract investment, particularly from retirees seeking better returns than those available in money market accounts [6][15].

本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议,其此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券、国海证券员工或者关联机构无关。本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点,仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断。相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准。 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示会议其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资者朋友大家晚上好欢迎参加我们今天的电话会议我是国外海外互联网的分析师尹瑞 但今天将由我和我的同事给大家汇报近期我们对于港股互联网板块的一个观点首先整体来看我们认为在美联储降息和国内政策宽松的一个双重背景下非常利好港股互联网板块美联储降息带来流动性的一个改善那港股作为相对偏边缘的一个市场弹性很大而且国内相对宽松利好的一个政策也会吸引更多外资的一个回流 宏观环境以及政策导向也是外资比较看重的一个指标而且对比美股港股互联网板块是比较明确的一个估值挖地虽然近期明显修复但明年的估值仍然在十倍以上下 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Crescat Capital LLC 44 Cook St., Suite 100 Denver, CO 80206 (303) 271-9997 info@crescat.net www.crescat.net September 27, 2024 The New Role of Monetary Policy What if the rate of inflation is in the process of bottoming out and the Federal Reserve has limited capacity to intervene to contain it? Monetary policy is increasingly evolving into a crucial tool for reducing interest payments on government debt, thus allowing fiscal stimulus to be more strategically channeled towards f ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Real Estate Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, particularly in the context of recent policy changes and market dynamics. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Support for Real Estate**: Recent policies aim to assist the real estate sector by reducing existing mortgage rates and extending the duration of financial support measures, such as the "Financial 16 Measures" and operational property loans, from December 31, 2024, to December 31, 2026 [4][5][10]. 2. **Impact of Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China has increased its support for affordable housing refinancing from 60% to 100%, which is expected to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [4][5]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: Despite policy support, the real estate market continues to face challenges, with high inventory levels and a significant year-on-year decline in sales volume, with a drop of 18.00% in sales area and 23.60% in sales value [10][11]. 4. **Price Trends**: The average price of new residential properties continues to decline, with a notable decrease in 70 major cities, except for a few like Shanghai and Nanjing, which saw price increases [10][11]. 5. **Debt Market Activity**: In August, the domestic bond market for real estate companies shifted to a net financing state, with a total of 43.616 billion yuan raised, marking a significant recovery in financing activity [11][13]. 6. **Future Expectations**: The market is expected to see limited sales growth in September due to ongoing price declines and the diminishing effects of previous stimulus policies [10][11]. Additional Important Content 1. **Safety Concerns in Existing Housing**: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is exploring the establishment of a housing inspection and insurance system to address safety concerns in aging buildings, with pilot programs currently underway in 22 cities [7]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment**: The recovery of the real estate market is heavily dependent on consumer expectations regarding housing prices and income levels, indicating that broader economic improvements are necessary for a sustainable recovery [5][10]. 3. **Regional Disparities**: There is a noticeable divergence in market performance across different cities, with first-tier cities and some second-tier cities showing resilience, while third and fourth-tier cities are experiencing significant declines in transaction volumes [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the real estate industry in China, highlighting the interplay between policy measures, market conditions, and consumer behavior.

投资者大家好现在我们就近期国际市场上一些热点事件主要是美联储9月份开启了它第一次降息给大家去做一个解读相信对于投资者们也是比较关注美联储开启降息周期之后哪些资产值得大家去关注今天我们就在这里给大家做一个资产的展望 首先呢给大家讲一下这个九月份这个美联储议席会议的一个情况美联储的这个货币政策对于这个美债黄金等一些资产的这个投资其实都是相对来说是非常重要的一个指标比如说今年以来这个黄金价格的一个飙涨主要就是出于对美联储降息预期的一个交易 那这次的这个会议呢就也是受到大家的一个关注事先呢这个市场上也是就此去进行了这个很多次的这种预期的一个交易回到这个事件本身具体来看当地时间这个9月18号美联储召开了9月的这个议题会议那它是以11比1的结果 投出决定降低基准利率50个BP到4.75%到5%的区间范围里面 但他这个11比1的投票结果是有一位理事反对的那这是也是05年以来首次出现投票分歧的一次这个会议那也是非常有意思的那从结果上来看呢本次的这个降息的幅度是高于市场预期的美元图的点证图显示决策者对于今年年底联邦基金利率的预估中值是从5.1%大幅降低至4.4% 2014年的降息补助预期也是由25个BP大幅升至100个BP这也 ...

我爱你 我哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒� 回忆 多少次跌跌撞撞翻车毁灭墙多少次在迷茫之中寻找方向多少次跌落之后再站起来原谅再勇敢去闯荡 请不吝点赞 订阅 转发 打赏支持明镜与点点栏目 巍巍盛光点亮着星河世界巍巍温暖融化昨夜的冰雪就像是每一秒都成为岁月巍巍永不停歇巍巍就是春天里每天落叶 未经许可,不得翻唱或使用 今天很高兴能够在下午这个场合和大家做这么一场关于美联储降息与全球经济展望的一个直播那么我们今天其实也很荣幸的邀请到了我们今天的一个非常重磅的嘉宾就是恒生指数公司指数策略研究经理梁上宾梁先生那也就先有请梁先生给大家 打声招呼吧大家好大家好我是恒生指数公司的指数策略研究经理梁长斌很高兴可以跟大家分享谢谢谢谢梁老师对于我给大家做一个简单的自我介绍我来自于富国基金量化投资部定量经纪经理田西蒙也是管理了若干支跨境的ETF其中也包括我们今天主要给大家去分享的恒生医疗和恒生红利 那么从名字上大家也能听出来这两个产品所跟踪的指数 ...

观众朋友们大家好欢迎来到指数一点通直播间我是主持人李晶那么今天来到我们直播间的也是广发基金指数投资部基金经理夏浩洋我们请浩洋跟我们打个招呼各位投资大家好我是大家老朋友浩洋那么今天非常高兴的和大家做港股板块的一个分享 好的那么也非常高兴今天能邀请浩阳跟大家交流和分享观点那么在正式拍播前我们先进行本次节目的风险提示本次直播的所有内容都仅代表嘉宾的个人观点不构成任何投资建议本直播仅限于基金管理人与合作平台开展宣传推广之目的禁止第三方机构单独摘影截取或以其他不恰当方式转播基金有风险投资需谨慎 那么其实我们今天要讨论的主题也是关于我们港股市场我们其实看到就是近期以来港股市场的关注度包括整体的一个表现都是非常亮眼的那么其实这个背后也是一个关注度非常高的事件就是美联储本次发布的一个降息50个BP终于是靴子落地了那么关于这次事件我们也想请浩然老师给我们点评一下它是否符合整体市场的一个预期以及对于全球资产会带来一些什么样的影响也请您简单为我们解读一下 好的没问题首先的话呢大家看最近呃三个交易日啊整个呃不管是港股还是A股在内整个的这个呃呃这个我们的亚太市场啊这个都是出现了一个比较大幅的一个上涨特别是港股港股在其中的这个表现是应该 ...