| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------| | | 宏观经济点评 | 证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 26 日 | | 6 支出待发力 | 月财政数据点评：财政支出整体偏慢，地方财政 | | | [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书 :S1320523020004 | 陈国文 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书 :S1320524070001 | | 投资要点： 受高基数影响，财政收入同比增速持续为负，税收收入降幅扩大。1 至 6 月一般公 共预算收入同比增长-2.8%，负增主因在于去年出台的缓税减税政策。一般公共预 算收入完成 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. Q2 GDP growth rate was 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2%[2] - Personal consumption contributed 1.57% to GDP growth, remaining the largest driving factor[41] - Private investment, including inventory changes, saw a significant increase to 8.4% from the previous 4.4%[42] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment slowed to a 3.6% growth rate, down from 7%[42] - Equipment investment surged to 11.6%, up from 1.6%[42] - Other investments, such as construction and housing, showed declines of -3.3% and -1.4% respectively[42] Trade and Exports - The trade deficit widened, contributing -0.72% to GDP, with imports rising 6.9% and exports increasing 2%[42] - The increase in imports was driven by consumer demand and inventory replenishment across various sectors[42] Government Spending - Government spending grew by 3.1%, up from 1.8%, with defense spending rebounding to 5.2%[31] - Federal non-defense spending increased by 2.2%, while state and local government spending rose by 2.6%[31] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE inflation rate fell to 2.6% from 3.4%, indicating a cooling in price pressures[41] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have reached 100%, although the resilience of the economy may suggest that the total number of cuts for the year is overestimated[41]

行业研究｜工程机械 2024 年 07 月 19 日 证券研究报告 工程机械 ETF： 内需逐步筑底，出海成为第二增长点 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 邹博文 研究助理 证书:S1320523080001 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com Email:zoubowen@lczq.com 投资要点： 内需企稳，大规模设备更新催发工程机械行业的存量更新需求。（1）房地 产行业深度调整仍在继续，中央及地方不断出台政策支撑房地产市场企稳， 但房地产在经济中的定位有所改变，对工程机械需求的作用也由拉动变为 支持，但仍是最主要的下游之一。（2）铁路投资和水利投资持续维持高位， 对工程机械的需求形成有力支撑。（3）上海率先发布"国二"非道路移动机 械更新补贴征求意见稿，存量更新需求有望在 2024 年和 2025 年集中释 放。 出海持续增加，已成为行业新的增长点。根据 Statista 数据，2023 年全球 工程机械市场规模约为 1570.6 亿美元，预计 2026 年会稳定增长至 1865.3 亿美元。我国工程机械出口自 2020 年以来快速上升，亚洲、拉丁美洲、非 洲等地是我国主要的出口目 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the macroeconomic outlook in the context of the U.S. elections and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, focusing on the U.S. market dynamics [1]. Core Points and Arguments - The call begins with a welcome message and indicates that all participants are currently muted, suggesting a formal and structured environment for the discussion [1]. - The host is prepared to start the discussion immediately after the introductory remarks, indicating a focus on timely and relevant topics [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of the U.S. elections and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts suggests potential implications for market volatility and investment strategies, although specific details are not provided in the excerpt [1].

行业研究|光伏设备 2024 年 07 月 15 日 证券研究报告 《光伏制造行业规范条件(2024 年本)(征求意 见稿)》内容详解 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 杜彤彤 研究助理 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com Email:dutongtong@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 《规范条件》主要有六方面修订:一是提高新建项目资金门槛;二是加强 保护知识产权;三是提高部分技术指标要求;四是提高阻燃及安全性;五 是降低耗电耗水;六是引导绿色发展。 投资建议:本次《规范条件》意在引导光伏企业避免低水平重复扩张,提 升产品质量和绿色发展水平。建议重点关注技术研发投入较多的阳光电 源、德业股份、赛伍科技、晶盛机电、金辰股份;以及格局好盈利稳定性 强的龙头企业大全能源、晶科能源、隆基绿能。 风险提示:政策下达进度不及预期风险、执行效果低于预期风险。 投资评级:看好(维持) 市场表现 光伏设备 沪深300 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 7/17 9/27 12/8 2/18 4/30 7/11 相关报告 光伏 ETF ...

本次会议为天风证券研究所闭门会议仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经天风证券研究所和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等如有上述违法行为天风证券研究所保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 大家好欢迎参加天峰顾收如何看待联储降息以国内市场表现目前所有人均处于静音状态现在有请主持人开始发言谢谢各位投资者大家好啊我是天峰顾收随修品负责宏观距离研究上周末呢我们写了一篇周报就是如何看待联储后续的行为以及国内市场的表现啊国内市场方面呢 这个我们都是做债的服务所以大家呢最多的是关注点在于央行是不是降息或者说央行对于我们这个利率的限制这个下限的限制是不能打开啊所以我们就做一个展开我先说一下结论啊结论方面呢首先对于外围方面我们是觉得美联储九月份降息的这个这个可能性呢不能过度高估啊因为 前面确实非同数据出来然后这个通胀数据PCI数据出来之后呢大家对于美联储的这个这个后续九月份开始降息这一点的预期打的比较满但是我们目前还能看到一些呃不一样的一些变化或者说这个反方向的一些趋势然后另外呢就是我们要考虑一种可能性啊即使九月份美联储降息我们国内的货币这个这个货币政策是不是就能 进一步宽松他对 ...

6 月金融数据点评：信贷承压拖累社融，关注后续降准降息的可能性 证书:S1320523020004 证书:S1320524070001 企业、居民部门同比均少增。企业部门当月新增短贷 6700 亿、中长贷 9700 亿，分别少增 749 亿和 6233 亿。一方面，与核算方法优化后，供 给偏谨慎有关，这一点结合票据冲量有所缓解也可以看出；另一方面，实 体融资需求仍有待改善。6 月制造业 PMI 仍在荣枯线下徘徊，主要分项均 有不同程度回落，需求不振带动生产转弱，企业资本开支意愿偏低的特征 仍较为明显。居民部门新增短贷 2471 亿、中长贷 3202 亿，分别少增 2443 亿和 1428 亿。6 月主要城市商品房销售边际改善，但居民中长贷同 比表现仍然偏弱，或更多与提前还贷相关。存量与新增房贷利差走阔，导 致居民早偿意愿有所抬升，对居民中长贷形成一定压制。 "供给端规则改变"+"需求端有待改善"的影响，6 月信贷继续承压拖 累社融同比转负。往前看，一是经济高质量发展转型下，信贷对经济驱动 力减弱，财政发力或主导下半年的信用扩张。在广义财政支出"补进度" 诉求下，国债和专项债下半年仍有望加速发行，实物工作量或将 ...

本次电话会议顶面向华新证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议 华新证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任未经华新证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布、转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改、解读等涉嫌违反上述情形的本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 各位投资者晚上好欢迎参加周末七点华新研究带来的周末新风向那本周主要是有宏观策略我们的雇收与大类资产配置以及化工和医药联合电子通信 五个小组共同为大家解读我们最新的一些观点那首先是由我宏观策略的杨芹芹来跟大家分享一下我们近期对于海外热点事件的一些观察以及接下来的资产应对的一个策略那其实可以看到在这一周不管是海外还是国内其实都有相对比较重磅的一些事情值得关注并且对应到的资产的价格产生了比较明显的一些影响 具体来看的话海外其实主要关注的是一个降息交易和今天突发的一个特朗普的2.0的一个交易可以看到整个情绪上来看的话并且情绪是边界上有些升温的而且从资产上是出现了一定的高低切换 那具体来看的话这周首先是在前半周像鲍威尔的国会的政策里面是释放出了一些偏鸽一点的信号因为他特别是提出了就是不 ...

| --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the photovoltaic (PV) industry, indicating a stable growth trajectory despite short-term challenges [2][10]. Core Insights - The PV industry is transitioning towards maturity and stability, driven by technological innovation and strategic positioning of companies. The demand side remains robust, supported by energy structure transformation and carbon neutrality goals [2][10]. - The PV index is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024, following a period of volatility influenced by supply excess and policy changes [2][11]. - The main industry chain is at a bottoming phase, with expectations for marginal improvements as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall PV Industry and Index Review - The PV industry faced a "winter" period due to supply excess, but government policies are being implemented to alleviate these issues. The industry is expected to recover as low-end capacities are phased out [9][10]. - The PV index has shown significant volatility compared to other indices, with a notable decline in 2023 due to oversupply, but is projected to reach a bottom and recover [11][12]. 2. PV Industry: Short-term Slowdown, Long-term Growth - Global renewable energy generation surpassed 30% of total generation for the first time in 2023, with PV capacity growing from 1.2TW in 2022 to 1.6TW in 2023 [13][15]. - The report forecasts a slowdown in growth rates due to high base effects, but long-term growth remains intact, with global PV installations expected to increase by 29% in 2024 [13][15]. 3. Main Industry Chain: Bottom Characteristics and Marginal Upside - The industry is currently at a bottom position, with expectations for improvement as supply-demand dynamics stabilize and prices bottom out [21][22]. - The transition from P-type to N-type cells is accelerating, with N-type materials becoming the preferred choice for manufacturers [22][25]. 4. Supporting Materials: Diverse Growth Logic - The demand for PV glass is expected to rise due to increased installations and the penetration of bifacial modules, while supply may tighten due to policy restrictions [2][21]. - The inverter segment is seeing a positive trend as energy storage becomes a secondary growth curve, benefiting leading companies with cost and channel advantages [2][21]. 5. PV ETFs: Focus on Leading Funds - The report highlights the limited scale of domestic PV-themed ETFs, recommending investors to focus on reputable fund managers with a strong track record [2][4].