-5200 -200 4800 9800 14800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 -5000 -3000 -1000 1000 3000 5000 7000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 二是政策利率仍有下行空间。一方面，工业企业利润率与企业贷款利率差额仍在收 窄。截止 3 月底，工业企业利润率与企业贷款加权平均利率差较 2023 年底继续回落 88 个基点至 1.1%，信贷融资成本相较于利润率而言仍然偏高。另一方面，美联储年内降息 仍有预期。上半年，美联储不断推后降息节点，市场预期降息幅度也随之缩小，美中利 差对国内政策利率有所牵制。但往前看，美联储下半年有一次降息的预期仍然存在，随 着时间节点临近，"汇率掣肘"有望得到缓解。此外，银行净息差压力持续释放。今年以 来商业银 ...

汽车 ETF 深度:2024 年多因素助推汽车市场延续 稳健增长态势,选择相关 ETF 基金有望实现超额收 益 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 受多因素影响,汽车板块弹性优于整体市场。自基期以来,汽车板块走势 与整体市场大致近似,但弹性较优,从 2009 年下半年起有明显的超额收 益。主要受国内汽车产业促进政策/促消费政策推出、新能源汽车渗透率快 速增长、智能网联汽车加速应用、部分新车型上市/销量超预期等因素影响。 2024 年下半年,受政策促进、产销稳健、出海增长等因素影响,车市有望 延续稳健增长态势。 政策方面:2024 年以来,汽车相关促进政策推出节奏明显加快,在促进以 旧换新、明确购车补贴、降低购车门槛、取消购买限制等多方面进一步明 确,为下半年各项具体促进政策落地和实施奠定了基础,有助于稳定信心、 刺激需求,预计将进一步促进汽车市场特别是新能源汽车市场增长。 产销方面:2024 年以来,市场规模整体维持增长,多个车企推出价格和金 融优惠政策,并推出多款新车型,有望促进市场需求,支撑 2024 年车市稳 健增长。另外,新能源汽 ...

受高基数影响，财政收入同比增速为负，税收收入降幅扩大。1 至 5 月一 般公共预算收入同比增长-2.8%，负增主因在于去年出台的缓税减税政策。 一般公共预算收入完成进度为 43.3%，五年维度看处于低位。 中央支出增速维持高位，基建类支出增速高位下降。1 至 5 月一般公共预 算支出同比增速为 3.4%，与前值比增速下降 0.1pct。一般公共预算支出完 成进度为 37.9%，五年维度看表现中性。一般公共预算赤字使用率为 18.6%，五年维度看表现中性偏快。中央支出增速达到 10.2%，地方支出增 幅为 2.4%，中央支出发力明显，地方支出缓慢，拖累财政支出力度。基建 类支出增速继续处于高位，边际略有下降，说明财政政策持续发力。 相关报告 2024.06.16 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|------------------------- ...

汽车行业 2024 年 5 月产销数据跟踪:总产销增速 略有放缓,新能源市场自主品牌延续亮眼表现 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 1.总产销:销量同环比小幅增长,累计增速略有放缓。5 月,汽车产销 237.2 万辆/241.7 万辆,同比+1.67%/+1.51%,环比-1.41%/+2.46%。1-5 月,汽 车累计产销 1138.4 万辆/1149.6 万辆,同比+6.5%/+8.3%,增速较 1-4 月 收窄 1.3pct 和 2pct。 2.出口:商用车表现亮眼,比亚迪延续高增长态势。5 月,汽车出口 48.1 万 辆,同比+23.97%,环比-4.56%;其中商用车出口 8.4 万辆,环比+13.51%, 同比+33.33%;新能源汽车出口 9.9 万辆,同比-9%,环比-13.3%,或因地 缘政治干扰(6 月 12 日欧盟宣布 7 月 4 日起对国内出口至欧盟地区的电动 汽车加征反补贴临时关税)。分车企来看,比亚迪(3.8 万辆,+2.45 倍)、 吉利(4.1 万辆,+78.26%)、长安(4.7 万辆,+62.07%) ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined by 3.2 points to +1.3 in June, contrary to expectations for a slight increase, with mixed underlying components [4][6] - Housing starts fell by 5.5% to 1,277k (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in May, marking the lowest level since June 2020, against consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase [6][7] - Building permits decreased by 3.8% to 1,386k (saar) in May, also against expectations for a 0.7% increase, with declines in both multi-family and single-family permits [7] - Initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 238k for the week ended June 15, remaining elevated compared to the average level seen in the first five months of the year [8] - The Q2 GDP tracking estimate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized rate) [8] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed a decline to +1.3 in June, with new orders and employment components increasing, while shipments decreased significantly [4][6] Housing Market - Housing starts dropped by 5.5% in May, with a notable decline in single-family starts contributing to the overall decrease, while multi-family starts also saw a decline [6][7] - Building permits also fell by 3.8% in May, with significant regional variations in permit issuance [7] Labor Market - Initial jobless claims showed a slight decline but remained above average levels, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [8] Economic Outlook - The Q2 GDP tracking estimate was adjusted downwards, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [8]

本报告的信息均来源于本公司认为可信的公开资料，但本公司及其研究人员对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 本报告中的资料、意见及预测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，可能会随时调整。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本 报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息及资料保持在最新状态，对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的资料、工具、意见、信息及推测只提供给客户作参考之用，不构成任何 投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,本公司不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。本报告中所指的投资及 服务可能不适合个别客户，不构成客户私人咨询建议。投资者应当充分考虑自身特定状况，并完整理解和使用本报告内容， 不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。 投资者应注意，在法律许可的情况下，本公司及其本公司的关联机构可能会持有本报告中涉及的公司所发行的证券并进行 交易，也可能为这些公司正在提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。 本报告版权归"联储证券股份有限公司"所有。未经事先本公司书面授权，任何机 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In May, new social financing amounted to 2.07 trillion RMB, an increase of 513.2 billion RMB year-on-year, with the stock growth rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%[38] - The new RMB loans in May were 815.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 406.2 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating weak effective demand for credit[56] - Corporate short-term and medium-long term loans totaled 380 billion RMB in May, with year-on-year decreases of 155 billion RMB and 268 billion RMB respectively[39] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 2.8 percentage points to -4.2% in May, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.0%[45] - The total new RMB deposits decreased by 306.4 billion RMB year-on-year, with household and corporate deposits declining by 116.4 billion RMB and 660.7 billion RMB respectively[45] - Non-bank deposits increased by 837.9 billion RMB, and fiscal deposits rose by 526.4 billion RMB, indicating a shift towards wealth management products[45] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The economic recovery is at risk of falling short of expectations, particularly in the real estate sector, which may face increased risks[46] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to provide ongoing support for social financing in the second and third quarters[40] - The marginal effects of policies aimed at "squeezing water" from financial data may gradually weaken over time, but the pace of this change remains uncertain[40]

证书:S1320523020004 宏观经济点评 2024 年 06 月 14 日 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 核心观点： 会议声明显示美国经济总体稳健扩张，就业良好，通胀改善。美联储主席 鲍威尔在讲话中表示，过去两年美联储在货币政策就业和物价双重目标方 面都取得了可观的进展。劳动力市场走向更好的平衡，每月新增就业强劲 同时失业率保持低位，大量数据显示就业情况已恢复至疫情前水平；PCE 通胀虽然依旧偏高但已完成从峰值的 7%到 2.7%的回落。"虽然 GDP 增 长从 2023 年 Q4 的 3.4%降至 2024 年 Q1 的 1.3%，但除去库存投资、政 府购买及净出口的私人购买增长 2.8%，基本保持了 2023 年下半年的水 平，意味着国内需求依旧强劲。"美国经济总体平稳，下行风险较低。 经济预期摘要（SEP）上调了失业率及短期通胀预测，GDP 预测不变。 美联储 6 月更新的 SEP 上调了失业率预测，意味着美联储官员认为劳动 力市场的降温趋势开始显现。同时美联储小幅上调了 2024 年及 2025 年 的通胀预测，虽然对长期通胀回落至 2%比较有信心，但短期内通 ...

Employment Data - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.0%[39] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.7% to 62.5%, with a drop of 250,000 in the labor force count[39] - Average hourly earnings rose by 4.1% year-over-year, with a nominal wage of $34.91, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4%[8] Market Implications - The stronger-than-expected employment data has pushed back the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 68.68% to 50.45%[42] - The likelihood of a November rate cut stands at 64.44%, indicating increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy[42] Labor Market Trends - The service sector added 204,000 jobs, with healthcare and education contributing 86,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality saw a significant increase of 42,000 jobs[41] - Job openings in the U.S. are currently at a vacancy rate of 4.8%, indicating a cooling demand for labor[51] Economic Risks - The broader unemployment rate (U6) remains at 7.4%, with an increase in the number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons, suggesting a decline in job quality[55] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakening, with indicators such as the total separation rate and voluntary quit rate remaining low, reflecting reduced labor market fluidity[55]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for liquidity in the financial system, particularly in the context of the U.S. economy. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction** The Federal Reserve confirmed a slowdown in its balance sheet reduction, lowering the monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion, while maintaining the cap for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [1][2] 2. **Monetary Policy Stance** Despite the slowdown in balance sheet reduction, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that this does not indicate a loosening of monetary policy, and the ultimate scale and endpoint of the balance sheet reduction remain unchanged [1][2] 3. **Evolution of Reserve Framework** The reserve framework has shifted significantly since the subprime crisis, moving from a scarce reserve framework to an ample reserve framework, where banks are paid interest on reserves [1][3] 4. **Impact on Interest Rate System** The evolution of the reserve framework has influenced the Fed's interest rate system, transitioning from a corridor system to a floor system, where market interest rates are closely aligned with the lower bound set by the interest on reserves [1][4] 5. **Liquidity Measurement** To assess liquidity stress, it is essential to monitor both the total and structural aspects, including the progress and scale of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and the Treasury's issuance plans [1][5] 6. **Current Reserve Levels** Current reserve balances are approximately $3.5 trillion, exceeding the appropriate level of $2.7 to $2.8 trillion as suggested by Fed officials. Recent liquidity has improved, but future expansion space is limited [1][6][7] 7. **Lessons from Past Liquidity Events** The Fed's decision to slow down balance sheet reduction is partly a response to past liquidity stress events, such as the "repo crisis" in 2019, which highlighted the risks associated with low reserve levels and coinciding fiscal events [1][6][7] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The notes indicate that while liquidity has recently improved, the proportion of money market funds participating in the Fed's reverse repo operations has declined, suggesting potential future liquidity constraints [1][6][7] - Observing market interest rates is crucial for understanding liquidity conditions and predicting the Fed's policy direction [1][5][7]