本次电话会议仅服于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息 涉及外部嘉宾发言的商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 尊敬的各位投资者大家晚上好,我是新界证券的宏观分析师卓虹,我们看到的话呢,自5月下旬以来多位联储的官员的话呢,是释放了鹰派的这样的一个调整的一个预期,市场的这个紧速预期,包括美债和美股的表现的话,也出现了一定程度上面的波动, 而同时的话呢六月份的议席会议上面联储的话呢将在调整对所谓的资产负债表的一个购买的一个进度进行调整基于此的话呢我们将推出对于联储缩表的这个深度研究那么在今天晚上电话会议当中的话呢将由我的同事金淳来分享关于美国流动性的一些基准的概念框架以及对于联储缩表背景的这样的一个讨论那接下来的话呢 好的那么感谢竹童总的介绍各位尊敬的投资者大家晚上好我是信息证券宏观组的研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gold sector [3]. Core Insights - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise due to high U.S. national deficit rates and central banks increasing gold reserves, which creates market expectations for higher gold prices [2][19]. - Short-term risks for gold prices include potential corrections due to crowded speculative positions and manageable geopolitical risks, but any corrections are expected to be limited [2][39]. - The main battleground for the gold market in 2024 will revolve around the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with expectations for a bullish gold market in the second half of the year [2][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold Price Trends - The international gold price is primarily influenced by overseas markets, particularly the COMEX and LBMA [8]. - Traditional frameworks for analyzing gold prices have become less effective, as gold prices have decoupled from U.S. Treasury yields since early 2023 [10][16]. 2. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Long-term upward trends in gold prices are driven by high U.S. national deficit rates and increased central bank gold purchases [19][20]. - The U.S. national deficit has remained above 5.5% since 2022, contributing to a higher price baseline for gold [20][25]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with annual demand from central banks exceeding 20% of total gold demand in recent years [27][30]. 3. Short-term Price Movements - The first phase of gold price increases in early 2024 was driven by speculative trading and expectations of interest rate cuts [40][42]. - The second phase of price increases was influenced by geopolitical risks, particularly the resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East [45][47]. 4. Investment Strategies for Gold ETFs - The report suggests focusing on leading spot gold ETFs due to their superior liquidity and performance compared to other products [2][4]. - Stock-based gold ETFs have limited scale and are more volatile, thus presenting higher risks during market corrections [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The decoupling of gold prices from U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by two factors: the long-term high U.S. national deficit raising the price baseline for gold, and central banks' concentrated gold purchases creating market expectations for rising gold prices [2][19] - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise due to the persistent increase in global deficit rates and the significant gap in gold reserves between emerging economies and the West, leading to a diversification of asset allocation strategies by central banks [2][38] - Short-term risks for gold prices include potential corrections due to crowded speculative positions and geopolitical risks becoming more manageable, although the strong gold purchasing activity by central banks in Q1 and the approaching interest rate cuts are expected to limit the extent of any corrections [2][39] Summary by Sections 1. Gold Price Trends - The international gold price is primarily driven by overseas markets, particularly the COMEX and LBMA, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange following these trends [8] - Traditional frameworks for analyzing gold prices have become less effective, as gold prices have risen despite increasing U.S. Treasury yields [10][16] 2. Factors Influencing Gold Price Movements - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by expansive fiscal policies and increased gold purchases by central banks [19][20] - The U.S. national deficit has remained high, contributing to a higher baseline for gold prices, while central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, impacting market expectations [20][25] 3. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The market's main focus will be on the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for gold prices to enter an upward cycle in the second half of the year [2][39] - The upcoming U.S. elections are anticipated to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, further supporting price increases [2][39] 4. Gold ETF Selection - Spot gold ETFs dominate the market, with leading funds showing strong performance and liquidity, while stock-based gold ETFs have limited scale and should be approached with caution due to their higher volatility in bear markets [2][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the air suspension industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [2] Core Insights - The rapid development of the domestic new energy vehicle market is driving the penetration of air suspension from the high-end market to the mid-range. Air suspension enhances the intelligence of the chassis, improving vehicle stability, ride comfort, and safety. Currently, new energy vehicles equipped with air suspension are priced between 300,000 to 500,000 yuan, with potential future applications in the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan market segment [2][36] - The domestic air suspension and related industry chain are in a low penetration, high growth phase. It is predicted that the air suspension market will enter a rapid development period in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 10% in the new energy vehicle market. The domestic air suspension market size is expected to reach 12.2 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 75 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of over 35% from 2024 to 2030 [2][29][36] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Air Suspension - Air suspension offers excellent passability, smoothness, and handling, enhancing the intelligence of the chassis. It is increasingly becoming a popular configuration in the mainstream market due to rising consumer demands for comfort and control in vehicles [6] - The air suspension system consists of air springs, dampers, supply systems, sensors, and controllers, which work together to adjust vehicle height and suspension stiffness [11][12] 2. Market Development Drivers - The development of smart vehicles is driving high-tech iterations, making air suspension a key component of intelligent chassis technology [31] - The rapid growth of domestic new energy vehicles is promoting the penetration of air suspension into the mid-range market, with many models priced between 300,000 to 500,000 yuan already equipped with air suspension [32] - The need for a complete domestic supply chain and the shift in procurement strategies by domestic automakers are facilitating the development of local alternatives to foreign suppliers [34] 3. Investment Recommendations - Key components of air suspension, such as multi-chamber air springs, active dampers, and closed supply systems, have high technical barriers and value. Companies that achieve breakthroughs in these areas and possess excellent system integration capabilities should be closely monitored [2][36] - Relevant listed companies include Baolong Technology (603197.SH), Zhongding Holdings (000887.SZ), Top Group (601689.SH), and Tianrun Industrial (002283.SZ) [2][36]

证券研究报告 行业研究｜饮料乳品 2024年05月27日 乳制品行业深度：筑基已成，潜力犹存 [Table_Author] 易碧归 分析师 梁雪航 研究助理 Email:yibigui@lczq.com Email:liangxuehang@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020003 投资要点： 投资评级： 看好 （首次） 乳制品市场发展现状： 市场表现 我国乳制品市场历经七十余年持续自我革新，良性发展根基已定，整体进 饮料乳品 沪深300 10% 入相对成熟的低速成长期。2023年乳制品市场规模为5738.6亿元。供给 6% 端来看，伴随行业规模化持续进行，奶质和奶量均有提升；需求端来看， 1% -3% 我国人均乳制品消费仅 12.4千克，人均提升和结构升级潜力仍存。 -7% -11% 乳制品市场增长机会： -16% -20% 1、总量上，中国乳制品市场仍有提升空间：一是我国经济可持续增长的 5/29 8/9 10/20 12/31 3/12 5/23 拉动；二是城乡差距、收入差距缩小带来的提振；三是饮奶消费习惯培育 逐步成熟的贡献。 相关报告 2、结构上，细分品类增长可期：一是冷链运输和ESL技 ...

我是联储证券资管的研究负责人王松然后我有一个公众号叫松山论士日常的话我的核心思路是通过地产行业的边际变化切入解读宏观以及地域的变化那在这样一个大的时间点我们看到标期新政推出了地产的 呃几个大的政策比如说史无前例的调低了呃我们守护比例在呃首首套房15二套房25在这样一个大的背景之下又同时去除了大部分城市的啊个人按揭的利率下限同时也推出了新的一个3000亿的保障房财贷款在这样一个大的背景之下我们就会追问 这些地产政策的效果如何对市场会有哪些影响最终会对我们的债国大宗商品会产生什么样的影响那么今天我就跟各位做一个很深入的分享相关的内容大家也可以在我的公众号松山论事可以扫描二维码进加入也可以看到我过往的文章 首先我们看到今天要分享的内容大概有这么几个方面啊首先是政策的预计效果第二是我们会看到后续两条主线就是第一有没有增长资金持续落地第二对市场预期的修复如何然后在此之外呢我们会发现另外一条主线就是说整个政策里边是否隐瞒对成熟转型的预期最后是做一个总结从政策预计的效果方面我们可以看到 517新政的框架其实是有两大块核心的政策是三个政策第一是去除个人按揭利率下限第二是进一步调降首股比例而这两个政策核心的作用在于改善市场预期 ...

[Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 4 月美国通胀回落符合预期，能源价格小幅反弹但核心 CPI 明显回落。美 国 4 月整体 CPI 同比增速 3.4%，持平预期，前值 3.5%；环比 0.3%低于 预期的 0.4%，前值 0.4%。核心 CPI 同比 3.6%，持平预期，前值 3.8%； 环比持平预期的 0.3%，前值为 0.4%。年初以来 CPI 数据连续高于预期， 4 月首次显出降温趋势。 4 月 CPI 数据公布后，降息预期上升。9 月首次降息的概率由 65.1%上升 至 69.2%，7 月首次降息的概率也由 26.4%上升至 30.8%。本次通胀数据 回落符合预期，核心 CPI 明显回落，住房通胀下行顺利。结合美国一季度 GDP 放缓，4 月非农就业大幅降温，美联储紧缩政策效果显现，降息只待 通胀进一步回落。如通胀、非农、经济数据无重大转折，则 2024 年 9 月 有望开始降息。 4 月金融数据点评：社融短期读数承压， 长期或与高质量发展相适配 美国一季度 GDP 点评 ...

Revenue Insights - From January to April 2024, the general public budget revenue reached CNY 8.09 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.7% due to high base effects from previous tax relief policies[32] - Tax revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 4.9%, primarily influenced by the high base from last year's tax deferrals for small and micro enterprises[110] - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -10.4%, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[46] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing at 10.5%, while local government expenditure rose by only 2.6%[105] - The expenditure completion rate for the general public budget was 31.3%, reflecting a neutral performance over the past five years[105] - The deficit utilization rate reached 13.9%, indicating a high level of fiscal pressure compared to historical data[105] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue recorded a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, marking 23 consecutive months of negative growth[46] - Government fund expenditure also fell by 20.5% year-on-year, continuing a trend of negative growth for 15 months[46] - The completion rate for new local government special bonds was only 19%, suggesting slow progress in funding initiatives[46] Policy Implications - The issuance of special long-term bonds is expected to support fiscal policy, with plans for 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds announced for 2024[68] - The central bank has introduced measures to support housing market recovery, including lowering down payment ratios for first and second homes[68]

本次电话会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息 涉及外部嘉宾发言的商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎大家来参加今天晚上的宏观超话电话会议我是信息证券宏观团队的分析师彭华莹今天晚上借由我的同事宏观组的金淳来为各位投资者汇报一下昨天晚上出炉的美国CPI数据有请金淳 各位投资者大家晚上好我是CNN认证宏观组研究员金淳感谢我的同事彭华英的主持今天晚上将由我来为各位投资者 我要汇报一下昨晚刚刚发布的美国4月CPI数据那么这一期的数据整体情况怎么样我们怎么理解这个数据以及对于后续美联储它的货币政策路径可能会有怎样的一个影响怎样的一个判断我们都会在今晚这样的宏观超快的电话会中和各位投资者进行一个简单的汇报 那么昨天晚上发布的4月CPI数据呢是终结了连续三个月的超 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed [2]. Core Insights - April core CPI rose by 0.29% month-over-month, which is 1 basis point below consensus expectations and represents the slowest pace since December. The year-on-year rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%, aligning with expectations. The report indicates a disinflationary composition, with primary rent measures slowing to a 31-month low and declines in both new and used car prices [7][12]. - Core retail sales declined by 0.3% in April, contrary to consensus expectations for a 0.1% increase. Headline spending remained unchanged, which was below expectations for a moderate increase. Auto sales decreased by 0.8%, while gas station sales rose by 3.1% [9][12]. - The Empire manufacturing index fell by 1.3 points to -15.6, against consensus expectations for an increase. The underlying components showed mixed results, with declines in new orders and employment, while shipments increased [11][12]. Summary by Sections Inflation Metrics - The April core CPI increased by 0.29% month-over-month, with a year-on-year rate of 3.6%. The report highlighted a significant slowdown in primary rent measures and declines in car prices, contributing to a disinflationary trend [7][8]. - The core PCE price index is estimated to have risen by 0.25% in April, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.77% [8]. Retail Sales - Core retail sales saw a decline of 0.3% in April, with various categories experiencing mixed performance. Notably, sales in sporting goods and health and personal care decreased, while clothing and accessory stores saw an increase of 1.6% [9][12]. - The retail sales report was weaker than expected, prompting a reduction in Q2 GDP tracking estimates by 0.4 percentage points to 3.0% [12]. Manufacturing Index - The Empire manufacturing index decreased to -15.6, with declines in new orders and employment components, while shipments showed a slight increase. The volatility of this index has been noted since 2022 [11][12].