Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In May, new social financing amounted to 2.07 trillion RMB, an increase of 513.2 billion RMB year-on-year, with the stock growth rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%[38] - The new RMB loans in May were 815.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 406.2 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating weak effective demand for credit[56] - Corporate short-term and medium-long term loans totaled 380 billion RMB in May, with year-on-year decreases of 155 billion RMB and 268 billion RMB respectively[39] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 2.8 percentage points to -4.2% in May, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.0%[45] - The total new RMB deposits decreased by 306.4 billion RMB year-on-year, with household and corporate deposits declining by 116.4 billion RMB and 660.7 billion RMB respectively[45] - Non-bank deposits increased by 837.9 billion RMB, and fiscal deposits rose by 526.4 billion RMB, indicating a shift towards wealth management products[45] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The economic recovery is at risk of falling short of expectations, particularly in the real estate sector, which may face increased risks[46] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to provide ongoing support for social financing in the second and third quarters[40] - The marginal effects of policies aimed at "squeezing water" from financial data may gradually weaken over time, but the pace of this change remains uncertain[40]

证书:S1320523020004 宏观经济点评 2024 年 06 月 14 日 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 核心观点： 会议声明显示美国经济总体稳健扩张，就业良好，通胀改善。美联储主席 鲍威尔在讲话中表示，过去两年美联储在货币政策就业和物价双重目标方 面都取得了可观的进展。劳动力市场走向更好的平衡，每月新增就业强劲 同时失业率保持低位，大量数据显示就业情况已恢复至疫情前水平；PCE 通胀虽然依旧偏高但已完成从峰值的 7%到 2.7%的回落。"虽然 GDP 增 长从 2023 年 Q4 的 3.4%降至 2024 年 Q1 的 1.3%，但除去库存投资、政 府购买及净出口的私人购买增长 2.8%，基本保持了 2023 年下半年的水 平，意味着国内需求依旧强劲。"美国经济总体平稳，下行风险较低。 经济预期摘要（SEP）上调了失业率及短期通胀预测，GDP 预测不变。 美联储 6 月更新的 SEP 上调了失业率预测，意味着美联储官员认为劳动 力市场的降温趋势开始显现。同时美联储小幅上调了 2024 年及 2025 年 的通胀预测，虽然对长期通胀回落至 2%比较有信心，但短期内通 ...

Employment Data - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.0%[39] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.7% to 62.5%, with a drop of 250,000 in the labor force count[39] - Average hourly earnings rose by 4.1% year-over-year, with a nominal wage of $34.91, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4%[8] Market Implications - The stronger-than-expected employment data has pushed back the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 68.68% to 50.45%[42] - The likelihood of a November rate cut stands at 64.44%, indicating increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy[42] Labor Market Trends - The service sector added 204,000 jobs, with healthcare and education contributing 86,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality saw a significant increase of 42,000 jobs[41] - Job openings in the U.S. are currently at a vacancy rate of 4.8%, indicating a cooling demand for labor[51] Economic Risks - The broader unemployment rate (U6) remains at 7.4%, with an increase in the number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons, suggesting a decline in job quality[55] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakening, with indicators such as the total separation rate and voluntary quit rate remaining low, reflecting reduced labor market fluidity[55]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for liquidity in the financial system, particularly in the context of the U.S. economy. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction** The Federal Reserve confirmed a slowdown in its balance sheet reduction, lowering the monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion, while maintaining the cap for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [1][2] 2. **Monetary Policy Stance** Despite the slowdown in balance sheet reduction, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that this does not indicate a loosening of monetary policy, and the ultimate scale and endpoint of the balance sheet reduction remain unchanged [1][2] 3. **Evolution of Reserve Framework** The reserve framework has shifted significantly since the subprime crisis, moving from a scarce reserve framework to an ample reserve framework, where banks are paid interest on reserves [1][3] 4. **Impact on Interest Rate System** The evolution of the reserve framework has influenced the Fed's interest rate system, transitioning from a corridor system to a floor system, where market interest rates are closely aligned with the lower bound set by the interest on reserves [1][4] 5. **Liquidity Measurement** To assess liquidity stress, it is essential to monitor both the total and structural aspects, including the progress and scale of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and the Treasury's issuance plans [1][5] 6. **Current Reserve Levels** Current reserve balances are approximately $3.5 trillion, exceeding the appropriate level of $2.7 to $2.8 trillion as suggested by Fed officials. Recent liquidity has improved, but future expansion space is limited [1][6][7] 7. **Lessons from Past Liquidity Events** The Fed's decision to slow down balance sheet reduction is partly a response to past liquidity stress events, such as the "repo crisis" in 2019, which highlighted the risks associated with low reserve levels and coinciding fiscal events [1][6][7] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The notes indicate that while liquidity has recently improved, the proportion of money market funds participating in the Fed's reverse repo operations has declined, suggesting potential future liquidity constraints [1][6][7] - Observing market interest rates is crucial for understanding liquidity conditions and predicting the Fed's policy direction [1][5][7]

本次电话会议仅服于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息 涉及外部嘉宾发言的商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 尊敬的各位投资者大家晚上好,我是新界证券的宏观分析师卓虹,我们看到的话呢,自5月下旬以来多位联储的官员的话呢,是释放了鹰派的这样的一个调整的一个预期,市场的这个紧速预期,包括美债和美股的表现的话,也出现了一定程度上面的波动, 而同时的话呢六月份的议席会议上面联储的话呢将在调整对所谓的资产负债表的一个购买的一个进度进行调整基于此的话呢我们将推出对于联储缩表的这个深度研究那么在今天晚上电话会议当中的话呢将由我的同事金淳来分享关于美国流动性的一些基准的概念框架以及对于联储缩表背景的这样的一个讨论那接下来的话呢 好的那么感谢竹童总的介绍各位尊敬的投资者大家晚上好我是信息证券宏观组的研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gold sector [3]. Core Insights - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise due to high U.S. national deficit rates and central banks increasing gold reserves, which creates market expectations for higher gold prices [2][19]. - Short-term risks for gold prices include potential corrections due to crowded speculative positions and manageable geopolitical risks, but any corrections are expected to be limited [2][39]. - The main battleground for the gold market in 2024 will revolve around the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with expectations for a bullish gold market in the second half of the year [2][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold Price Trends - The international gold price is primarily influenced by overseas markets, particularly the COMEX and LBMA [8]. - Traditional frameworks for analyzing gold prices have become less effective, as gold prices have decoupled from U.S. Treasury yields since early 2023 [10][16]. 2. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Long-term upward trends in gold prices are driven by high U.S. national deficit rates and increased central bank gold purchases [19][20]. - The U.S. national deficit has remained above 5.5% since 2022, contributing to a higher price baseline for gold [20][25]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with annual demand from central banks exceeding 20% of total gold demand in recent years [27][30]. 3. Short-term Price Movements - The first phase of gold price increases in early 2024 was driven by speculative trading and expectations of interest rate cuts [40][42]. - The second phase of price increases was influenced by geopolitical risks, particularly the resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East [45][47]. 4. Investment Strategies for Gold ETFs - The report suggests focusing on leading spot gold ETFs due to their superior liquidity and performance compared to other products [2][4]. - Stock-based gold ETFs have limited scale and are more volatile, thus presenting higher risks during market corrections [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The decoupling of gold prices from U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by two factors: the long-term high U.S. national deficit raising the price baseline for gold, and central banks' concentrated gold purchases creating market expectations for rising gold prices [2][19] - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise due to the persistent increase in global deficit rates and the significant gap in gold reserves between emerging economies and the West, leading to a diversification of asset allocation strategies by central banks [2][38] - Short-term risks for gold prices include potential corrections due to crowded speculative positions and geopolitical risks becoming more manageable, although the strong gold purchasing activity by central banks in Q1 and the approaching interest rate cuts are expected to limit the extent of any corrections [2][39] Summary by Sections 1. Gold Price Trends - The international gold price is primarily driven by overseas markets, particularly the COMEX and LBMA, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange following these trends [8] - Traditional frameworks for analyzing gold prices have become less effective, as gold prices have risen despite increasing U.S. Treasury yields [10][16] 2. Factors Influencing Gold Price Movements - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by expansive fiscal policies and increased gold purchases by central banks [19][20] - The U.S. national deficit has remained high, contributing to a higher baseline for gold prices, while central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, impacting market expectations [20][25] 3. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The market's main focus will be on the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for gold prices to enter an upward cycle in the second half of the year [2][39] - The upcoming U.S. elections are anticipated to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, further supporting price increases [2][39] 4. Gold ETF Selection - Spot gold ETFs dominate the market, with leading funds showing strong performance and liquidity, while stock-based gold ETFs have limited scale and should be approached with caution due to their higher volatility in bear markets [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment outlook for the dairy industry as "Positive (First Time)" [2] Core Insights - The dairy industry in China has established a solid foundation for development over the past seventy years, transitioning from scarcity to a mature market with ongoing growth potential [7][20] - The market size of China's dairy industry reached 573.86 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, indicating a trend of slowing growth in recent years [22] - There remains significant room for growth in per capita dairy consumption, which is currently only 12.4 kg, compared to global averages [22][26] Summary by Sections 1. Current State of the Dairy Market - The dairy market in China has undergone continuous self-reform and has established a solid foundation for healthy development, with a market size of 573.86 billion yuan in 2023 [2][22] - The industry has seen a significant increase in milk production, with 4,197 million tons produced in 2023, reflecting a growth of over 180 times since the founding of the People's Republic of China [7][22] 2. Growth Opportunities in the Dairy Market - There are still opportunities for growth in the overall dairy market, driven by sustainable economic growth, narrowing urban-rural income gaps, and the maturation of milk consumption habits [2] - Specific segments such as low-temperature fresh milk and functional yogurt are expected to see significant growth due to advancements in cold chain logistics and increasing health awareness [2] 3. Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by a dual oligopoly with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu holding over 40% of the market share, indicating a stable competitive environment [32] - The concentration of the liquid milk market is high, with over 55% of the market share held by domestic leaders, while the dry dairy product market is more fragmented with both domestic and foreign brands competing [36] 4. Profitability Outlook for Dairy Enterprises - The profitability ceiling for Chinese dairy companies is expected to rise, as they leverage their advantageous positions in the supply chain to reduce costs and seek profits through product upgrades [2] - The average milk yield per cow has increased to 9.2 tons, and the use of total mixed rations (TMR) technology has reached 95%, enhancing production efficiency [22][17] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the Chinese dairy industry, recommending attention to national leaders like Yili and regional players like Bright Dairy and New Hope Dairy [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the air suspension industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [2] Core Insights - The rapid development of the domestic new energy vehicle market is driving the penetration of air suspension from the high-end market to the mid-range. Air suspension enhances the intelligence of the chassis, improving vehicle stability, ride comfort, and safety. Currently, new energy vehicles equipped with air suspension are priced between 300,000 to 500,000 yuan, with potential future applications in the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan market segment [2][36] - The domestic air suspension and related industry chain are in a low penetration, high growth phase. It is predicted that the air suspension market will enter a rapid development period in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 10% in the new energy vehicle market. The domestic air suspension market size is expected to reach 12.2 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 75 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of over 35% from 2024 to 2030 [2][29][36] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Air Suspension - Air suspension offers excellent passability, smoothness, and handling, enhancing the intelligence of the chassis. It is increasingly becoming a popular configuration in the mainstream market due to rising consumer demands for comfort and control in vehicles [6] - The air suspension system consists of air springs, dampers, supply systems, sensors, and controllers, which work together to adjust vehicle height and suspension stiffness [11][12] 2. Market Development Drivers - The development of smart vehicles is driving high-tech iterations, making air suspension a key component of intelligent chassis technology [31] - The rapid growth of domestic new energy vehicles is promoting the penetration of air suspension into the mid-range market, with many models priced between 300,000 to 500,000 yuan already equipped with air suspension [32] - The need for a complete domestic supply chain and the shift in procurement strategies by domestic automakers are facilitating the development of local alternatives to foreign suppliers [34] 3. Investment Recommendations - Key components of air suspension, such as multi-chamber air springs, active dampers, and closed supply systems, have high technical barriers and value. Companies that achieve breakthroughs in these areas and possess excellent system integration capabilities should be closely monitored [2][36] - Relevant listed companies include Baolong Technology (603197.SH), Zhongding Holdings (000887.SZ), Top Group (601689.SH), and Tianrun Industrial (002283.SZ) [2][36]

我是联储证券资管的研究负责人王松然后我有一个公众号叫松山论士日常的话我的核心思路是通过地产行业的边际变化切入解读宏观以及地域的变化那在这样一个大的时间点我们看到标期新政推出了地产的 呃几个大的政策比如说史无前例的调低了呃我们守护比例在呃首首套房15二套房25在这样一个大的背景之下又同时去除了大部分城市的啊个人按揭的利率下限同时也推出了新的一个3000亿的保障房财贷款在这样一个大的背景之下我们就会追问 这些地产政策的效果如何对市场会有哪些影响最终会对我们的债国大宗商品会产生什么样的影响那么今天我就跟各位做一个很深入的分享相关的内容大家也可以在我的公众号松山论事可以扫描二维码进加入也可以看到我过往的文章 首先我们看到今天要分享的内容大概有这么几个方面啊首先是政策的预计效果第二是我们会看到后续两条主线就是第一有没有增长资金持续落地第二对市场预期的修复如何然后在此之外呢我们会发现另外一条主线就是说整个政策里边是否隐瞒对成熟转型的预期最后是做一个总结从政策预计的效果方面我们可以看到 517新政的框架其实是有两大块核心的政策是三个政策第一是去除个人按揭利率下限第二是进一步调降首股比例而这两个政策核心的作用在于改善市场预期 ...