2024 年 8 月 11 日 策略研究/定期报告 投资要点: 新股市场活跃度下降,8月科创板新股首日涨幅/开板估值下降 A 周内新股市场活跃度下降,近6个月上市新股周内共有3只股票录得正涨幅(占比10.00%, 前值 58.06%)。 科创板:上周科创板龙图光罩上市,上市首日涨幅 121.62%，首日开板估值 59.01 倍。周 内达梦数据录得周涨幅为正,龙图光罩、上海合晶录得周跌幅超-7%。 创业板:上周创业板无新股上市。周内爱迪特、骏鼎达录得周涨幅为正,博实结、绿联 科技、科力装备录得周跌幅超-7%。 沪深主板:上周沪深主板无新股上市。周内无样本新股录得正涨幅,安乃达、力聚热能、 录得周跌幅超-10%。 新股周期:6月上市6只新股,创业板/科创板新股首日涨幅高企,主板新股首日涨幅较4 月下降(5月无新股上市),创业板首日开板估值较5月上升,科创板/主板新股首日开板 山西证券新股研究团队 估值下降,估值水平分化。7月主板安乃达/键邦股份/力聚热能,创业板乔锋智能/科力装 备/绿联科技上市,创业板新股发行市盈率微升,首日涨幅高企但开板估值下降,主板新 股发行市盈率下降但开板估值上升。8月创业板博实结,科创板 ...

煤炭 行业周报（20240805-20240811） 领先大市-A(维持) 胜率优于赔率 2024 年 8 月 11 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 【山证煤炭】降息叠加设备更新计划实 施，关注双焦需求恢复-【山证煤炭】行 业周报（20240729-20240804）： 2024.8.4 【山证煤炭】欧洲动力煤价格回涨-【山 2024.7.28 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 动力煤：交投整体平淡，动力煤价偏弱震荡。受安监检查及北方强降雨 等影响，煤炭产地发运一般。需求方面，上周全国延续高温状态，火电负荷 维持高位，终端去库延续；但当前仍处汛期水电发力，叠加新能源出力较好， 挤占部分火电，终端采购仍以库存消化和刚需采购为主，动力煤价格偏弱震 荡。港口煤炭调入继续低于调出，港口库存降低。展望后期，稳经济政策仍 有空间，预计工业用电及非电用煤需求仍有增长空间；同时，国际煤价高位， 进口煤价差不高，后期进口煤增量 ...

煤炭 行业周报（20240805-20240811） 领先大市-A(维持) 胜率优于赔率 2024 年 8 月 11 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 【山证煤炭】降息叠加设备更新计划实 施，关注双焦需求恢复-【山证煤炭】行 业周报（20240729-20240804）： 2024.8.4 【山证煤炭】欧洲动力煤价格回涨-【山 2024.7.28 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 动力煤：交投整体平淡，动力煤价偏弱震荡。受安监检查及北方强降雨 等影响，煤炭产地发运一般。需求方面，上周全国延续高温状态，火电负荷 维持高位，终端去库延续；但当前仍处汛期水电发力，叠加新能源出力较好， 挤占部分火电，终端采购仍以库存消化和刚需采购为主，动力煤价格偏弱震 荡。港口煤炭调入继续低于调出，港口库存降低。展望后期，稳经济政策仍 有空间，预计工业用电及非电用煤需求仍有增长空间；同时，国际煤价高位， 进口煤价差不高，后期进口煤增量 ...

投资要点： 7 月物价变动总体符合预期，主要特征包括：一是，本月物价受天气因 素影响较大。如部分地区高温降雨天气导致鲜菜、鸡蛋涨价，也导致建筑业 施工偏慢。二是，国际大宗商品价格波动较大。三是，二十届三中全会后政 策加快推进，在部分商品价格中有所体现。如一般日用品和耐用消费品环比 表现好于季节性，和促消费政策驱动、部分行业库存偏低、上中游价格向下 游传导有关；非金属价格环比表现基本符合季节性，基建投资节奏或有改善； 受大规模设备更新的带动，传统设备制造业价格表现基本符合季节性。但总 体来说，总需求依然偏弱，政策驱动下部分行业价格改善幅度有限，叠加 8 分析师： 月及 9 月面临高基数，物价同比仍面临波动。 郭瑞 CPI 好于预期、强于季节性，PPI 符合预期、弱于季节性。7 月 CPI 同 比 0.5%（前值 0.2%），万得一致预期值为 0.3%；PPI 同比-0.8%，持平前值， 执业登记编码：S0760514050002 符合预期。7 月 CPI 环比 0.5%，强于季节性；PPI 环比-0.2%，弱于季节性。 电话：0351-8686977 CPI 支撑项主要是食品、能源和旅游分项，顺周期的家庭服务、 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the North Exchange (北交所) has experienced a significant market correction, with the North Exchange 50 index dropping from 1,105.21 points at the beginning of the year to 708.97 points, a decline of 34.52% in the first half of 2024 [1][16][25] - The overall trading volume of the North Exchange has decreased sharply, with total trading volume shrinking from 224.96 billion yuan to below 30 billion yuan [1][16][20] - The average daily trading volume for individual stocks on the North Exchange has also declined, with only 8 stocks showing gains in the first half of 2024 [1][20][24] Group 2 - The North Exchange is primarily dominated by individual investors, with institutional ownership remaining low at an average of 16.65% [2][31][35] - Public fund research activity has cooled down, with a decrease in the number of companies surveyed in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter [2][35][36] - The report notes that two passive index funds tracking the North Exchange 50 were established in the first half of 2024, but their combined scale remains relatively small [2][35][36] Group 3 - The North Exchange is characterized by a focus on "specialized, refined, and innovative" companies, particularly in the mid-to-high-end equipment manufacturing sector, which presents long-term investment value [3][25] - The report identifies several sectors with active market interest, including artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, power reform, and autonomous driving, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][25] - The report suggests that high-dividend stocks with good operating cash flow are worth attention, especially in a low-risk appetite environment [3][25][31] Group 4 - The North Exchange is undergoing regulatory improvements and market construction efforts aimed at high-quality development, which is expected to enhance the market's capacity to serve technology enterprises [2][3][31] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-quality new listings as the "New National Nine" policy promotes market expansion for innovative and technology-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises [3][25][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for Yongtai Energy (600157.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on both organic growth and acquisitions to strengthen asset quality, with performance forecasts indicating confidence in future development [1][5] - Recent announcements include plans to acquire a 51.0095% stake in Tianyue Coal Industry and expand coal resources in three mines, which are expected to enhance the company's high-margin coking coal production [2][3] - The company has secured a credit approval for a 5 billion yuan syndicated loan, which supports the production progress of the Haizetang coal mine, with production targets set for 2026 and 2027 [4][5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 1.21 yuan on August 8, 2024, with a yearly high of 1.53 yuan and a low of 1.01 yuan [2] Event Description - The company announced plans to acquire Tianyue Coal Industry and expand coal resources, predicting a resource increase of approximately 19.75 million tons from three mines [2] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 2.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.58% from 2023 [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company expects to achieve net profits of 2.473 billion yuan in 2024, 2.707 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.596 billion yuan in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 9.5%, and 32.8% [7] - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.11 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.16 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9, 9.9, and 7.5 [5][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's focus on coal production and strategic acquisitions will enhance its sustainable development capabilities, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [5] - The company is committed to a development strategy centered on coal and electricity, with a focus on high-margin coking coal business and improving profitability in the power sector [5]

资料来源：最闻 研究早观点 2024 年 8 月 9 日 星期五 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【行业评论】【山西证券|纺织服装】纺织制造台企 2024 年 7 月营收数 据速递 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,869.90 | 0.00 | | 深证成指 | 8,446.21 | -0.04 | | 沪深 300 | 3,342.94 | 0.04 | | 中小板指 | 5,424.16 | 0.15 | | 创业板指 | 1,611.51 | -0.54 | | 科创 50 | 708.92 | 0.19 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【固定收益】债券策略报告-利率难言见底 【公司评论】【山西证券 | 新材料】蓝晓科技：礼来 24Q2 替尔泊肽营 收超预期，固相合成载体有望受益 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和 ...

资料来源：最闻 研究早观点 2024 年 8 月 8 日 星期四 市场走势 【今日要点】 【公司评论】工业富联(601138.SH)：工业富联（601138.SH）-AI 服务 器需求旺盛，24H1 收入和净利润持续高增 【山证医药】康缘药业（600557）2024 年中报点评-二季度业绩承压，金振 带动口服液恢复增长 资料来源：最闻 【行业评论】【山证电新】20240807 光伏产业链价格跟踪 国内市场主要指数 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,869.83 | 0.09 | | 深证成指 | 8,449.58 | -0.17 | | 沪深 300 | 3,341.49 | -0.04 | | 中小板指 | 5,416.28 | -0.28 | | 创业板指 | 1,620.33 | -0.43 | | 科创 50 | 707.59 | -0.88 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@s ...

Market Overview - The overall market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2,860.70, down 1.54%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 8,395.05, down 1.85% [1] - The semiconductor sector saw a decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 9.71%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 3.39% [7] AI Capital Expenditure - AI capital expenditure continues to expand, with major cloud service providers and enterprises increasing their investments in AI technology, indicating a long-term growth trajectory despite short-term market fluctuations [10][11] - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow as companies seek more flexible computing power configurations [10] New Energy Storage - The National Energy Administration reported that new energy storage installations exceeded 44 million kilowatts in the first half of 2024, marking a growth of over 40% compared to the end of 2023 [12] - Lithium-ion batteries dominate the new energy storage market, accounting for 97% of the total installed capacity [12] Semiconductor Industry Performance - AMD reported a revenue of $5.8 billion for Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a net income of $265 million, reflecting a significant growth of 881% [9] - Samsung's Q2 2024 sales reached 74.07 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 23.44%, with operating profit soaring by 1462.29% [9] New Stock Market Activity - The new stock market saw increased activity with 18 new stocks recording positive gains, representing 58.06% of new listings [5] - The first-day gains for newly listed stocks on the ChiNext board showed a decline, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5] High-Speed Copper Connection - The GB200 innovation in high-speed copper connections is gaining attention, with Nvidia's GB200 chip expected to create a new market worth nearly $6 billion by 2025 [17] - The competitive landscape for high-speed copper interconnect components is concentrated, with significant barriers to entry in the manufacturing process [17] Network Identity Authentication - The introduction of the "Net Number" and "Net Certificate" system aims to enhance online identity security and protect personal information [19][21] - This new system is expected to create market opportunities for identity security vendors, particularly in applications requiring strong real-name verification [21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in AI technology, high-speed copper connections, and new energy storage solutions as potential investment opportunities [10][17][12] - Monitor the performance of key players in the semiconductor industry, such as AMD and Samsung, for growth prospects [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation over the next 6-12 months [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing robust growth in revenue and net profit driven by strong demand for AI servers, with a projected 40% growth in AI server revenue for the year [1][3]. - The company has a comprehensive AI server supply chain, covering everything from GPU modules to data centers, which positions it well in the market [1]. - The company is expected to capture a significant share of the global AI server market, with projections indicating it will hold 40% of the market share [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 266.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.69%, and a net profit of 8.739 billion yuan, up 22.04% [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 147.40 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.19% [3]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.31 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.56, 12.70, and 11.12 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 20.40 yuan, with a year-to-date high of 29.47 yuan and a low of 12.63 yuan [1]. - The circulating A-shares market capitalization is approximately 405.19 billion yuan, with a total market capitalization of about 405.31 billion yuan [1]. Future Projections - The company is expected to see continued growth in EPS, with forecasts of 1.61 yuan for 2025 and 1.83 yuan for 2026 [1][6]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are 564.01 billion yuan for 2024, 679.82 billion yuan for 2025, and 767.29 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6].