来拐点。24H1 海外储能大单频现，如阳光电源获沙特 7.8GWh 订单、特斯 拉获 Intersect Power 15.3GWh 订单等，均验证了这一逻辑。现阶段海外大 储竞争烈度相对较低，有明显超额利润，海外布局较早的企业有先发优势。 投资建议 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

纳问题有望随着储能快速发展、需求响应完善、项目核准收紧等举措得到缓 解，另一方面随着绿证核发机制、电碳协同机制、绿证强制消费机制完善，环 境溢价有望得到体现，绿电有望成为下一纾困对象，实现盈利和估值的双重 反转，当然市场预期的拐点仍待观察。 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------ ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.1% year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment in Q2 2024, and a 25.0% drop in sales revenue[7] - Housing prices have decreased significantly, with new residential sales area down 21.9% and sales revenue down 26.9%[7] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has increased by 15.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market weakness[7] Group 2: Economic Impact and Policy Response - The decline in housing prices has negatively affected consumer and investment behavior, leading to a contraction in M1 money supply, which experienced four consecutive months of negative growth[7] - Local government land transfer revenue has decreased by 14% year-on-year, marking 25 consecutive months of negative growth, which puts pressure on local finances[12] - The current macroeconomic policy focus is on addressing structural adjustments and fiscal gaps resulting from declining land finance, with a "waiting" phase for real estate issues[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Under a neutral assumption, the decline in housing prices is expected to continue until late 2025 or early 2026, with increasing opportunity costs if the downward trend persists[1] - The weakening of land finance may lead to reduced subsidies for industries, impacting export competitiveness[2] - Risks include potential policy measures being less effective than expected, leading to further deterioration in real estate data and slower economic growth momentum conversion[2]

证券研究报告|行业周报 2024/09/19 电气设备行业 宁德宜春锂生产线调整,锂板块短期反弹 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所新能源行业 分析师：张斯恺 登记编码：S0950523110002 邮箱：zhangsikai@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 邮箱：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：钟林志 邮箱：zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张娜威 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 01 新能源产业趋势点评 02 产业动态&数据跟踪 l 能源金属 电池及材料 新能源车 光伏/风电 储能/电网 电力（新能源/传统能源） 03 附录 l 行业指数涨跌幅 细分板块行情回顾 01 新能源产业趋势点评 珍惜有限 创造无限 4 新能源产业趋势点评（2024年9月1日-9月13日） 能源金属 锂 ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the industry is at a turning point, awaiting a recovery phase as prices in the supply chain continue to decline, impacting financial performance negatively [27] - The battery segment is under significant profit pressure and has seen a decline in cash reserves, leading to consolidation within the industry [26][27] - Emerging markets are becoming new growth points, with increasing demand for stable electricity supply, which solar power can help alleviate [10][11][14] Summary by Sections Solar Industry Overview - In the first half of 2024, solar installations reached 102 GW, a year-on-year increase of 31% [3] - Solar module exports totaled 129 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [4] - The share of exports to Europe has decreased, while emerging markets have seen an increase in their share [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the demand in emerging markets is accelerating, replacing traditional markets in Europe and North America as new growth drivers [10] - The cost of solar power is expected to reach 0.4-0.5 yuan/kWh, making it competitive against global electricity prices [13][14] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the solar industry experienced a slight increase in revenue, but net profit showed a year-on-year decline [18] - The profitability of main materials has deteriorated significantly, while auxiliary materials maintained stable profitability [21][22] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditures in the industry continue to decline, with significant reductions in key segments such as battery and support structures [24] - The cash reserves of companies in the main materials segment have decreased notably, indicating financial strain [25]

证券研究报告|行业点评 2024/9/19 电气设备行业 投资评级 看好 光伏行业2024年半年总结：出清前夕，静待黎明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 五矿证券研究所新能源行业 | | | | | | 分析师：蔡紫豪 | | | | | | 登记编码： S0950523070002 | | | | | | 邮箱： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn | | | | | 珍惜有限 创造无限 24H1需求良好，组件出口中欧洲占比下降 图表1：2024H1光伏装机102GW，yoy=31% 36% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-0 ...

降息博弈：金铜价格的六次演变往事 报告要点 本周专题探讨：以史为鉴，如何看待降息之后的金铜价格？ 专题要点：复盘历史可以发现，在降息后，降息因子被淡化，价格走跌取决 于具体市场对经济的预期。历史上不管是预防式降息还是纾困式降息，在完 整降息周期中，黄金的胜率更高。对于降息短周期来说，降息日之后的 1 个 月内，历史上黄金大概率上涨，铜则表现不一（如果纾困式降息，铜价表现也 尚可）。 在每一次预防式降息落地之时，似乎美国经济都预期会走向软着陆，但真正 实现软着陆的次数却不多，比如 1995 年和 2019 年（如果不考虑 2020 年疫情 影响），在软着陆的降息周期内，黄金和铜大概率处于震荡走势。如果降息没 有阻止经济衰退，黄金的表现或更强，但需注意流动性问题或美元是否强势 等问题。 本轮降息周期或可类比 2019 年降息周期，首次降息类似"预防式降息"，软 着陆预期较强。此外，2024 年 9 月 13 号拜登政府发布了对华新加征 301 关 税的最终细则，对中国的电动汽车、太阳能电池、起重机、医疗用品等商品加 征不同的关税，于 9 月 27 号开始施行。和 2019 年不同的是，2024 年面临美 国大选、 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 [Table_Main] 房地产深度报告（一）： 我国历史上的七次深度调整 报告要点 1998 年房地产改革的初衷在于 20 世纪 70 年代城市化进程加快，大量人口从 农村迁移至城市，住房缺口迫使房屋政策转型。早在 1988 年，全国住房改革 会议就提出了低租金、提租补贴、租售结合、以租促售等一系列措施。但 1989 年后，在价格闯关、居民购房意愿弱、试点未能有效解决住房短缺等问题的影 响下出现了十年的延期，房改政策进入等待阶段。进入 90 年代后，经济进入 高速增长阶段，居民购买力快速提升，政策呼之欲出，开启了房地产大周期。 税改不是促成土地财政的唯一推手。1993 年分税制改革与 1998 年房改的初 衷并非建立土地财政的逻辑关系，而是将更多资源与行政权力下划地方，以更 好地推动地方经济发展。经济增速目标压力迫使地方政府寻找潜在增长点，地 方政府选择通过出让土地作为财政收入的一部分，不仅可以增加地方财政收 入，还能满足地方投资需求，推动经济增长。从政策出发的角度看，我们认为 分税制改革并不是推动土地财政的直接原因，而是市场经济下地方政府的自然 选择。 自 1998 年房改至今 ...

[Table_Main] 锑系列深度三：立足供需库，展望锑的 价值回归之路 报告要点 锑产业政策规范出台，意指规范全球产业供应链。作为全球《关键矿产》清单 的交叉共识品种，美、日、欧都将锑列入关键金属管制。我国对锑产业的政策 曾经走过"收紧-边际放松"两步周期。8 月 15 日，针对部分锑、超硬材料相 关物项实施出口管制落地，政策细则聚焦锑下游高精尖产业应用，意指规范 全球锑产业链。锑产业政策再一次走到新一轮收紧的趋势中。 回望二十年，"火力全开"向全球输出锑资源背后，是我国锑资源优势丧失的 悲歌。根据 USGS 口径，04 年-08 年，我国以全球 40%+的储备资源，贡献 当年 80%+的锑产量。2008 年我国产量达到历史顶峰，占比 91.4%。08-16 年储量占比有所提升至 50%，产量占比维持在 85%+高位，这一阶段的产量 "火力全开"给目前锑产业现状埋下伏笔。2014 年开始，我国锑储量占比和 产量占比边际环比下行，2023 年，我国锑储量占全球 29.5%，产量占全球 48.12%。 站在目前节点，我国锑产业呈现资源自给自足缺口，进口依赖逐年扩大。 1）矿产锑与表观消费量缺口扩大。USGS ...