2024 牛 08 ♬ 02 日 译 本环尤依件2024 牛牛棋 本环 年能国际（600011）本用孝孝 英入 ( ##) 当前价：7.54 无 目标价：一一无（６个月） 煤价下降支撑火电业绩，风电盈利承压 表达夫,森 ● 李仲：公司友市 2024 年半年报，全年实现营校 1188亿元，同比下降 5.73%; 实现归书诗利润 74.54亿元，同比指长 18.16%；24Q2 实现容谈 534亿元，同 比下滑 12.05%，环比下滑 18.25%，实现包草冷利润 28.58 亿元，同比下滑 29.58%，环比下滑 37.82%。 。株式走屯利润网比麻比分别+0.007/-0.016 无。24Q1 公司煤机实现利润总额 11.55 亿元，同比/环比分别+74.2%/-59.1%，实现上网收量 781 亿千瓦叶，网 比/环比分别-9.65%/-15.3%，对应 24Q2 度 电利润 0.015 无/千瓦叶（同比/环比 分别+0.007 元/-0.016 元)。报告前内市场煤价保持低位运行，公司持续办大成 本答控力度，实现半位燃料成本同比下降，环比够有下滑主奏系水屯出力较好， 火屯上用屯至下滑所及。 。 风也显射来压 ...

2024 年 08月 01 日 证券研究报告·金融工程动态报告 央国企量化策略系列 央国企量化选股优选策略与8月组合 -央国企量化选股月度跟踪 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 搞要 | 西南证券研究发展中心 | | ● 结合央国企特性,从分红、估值、波动、情绪、公司业绩、抗风险能力、ESG 等 7个维度筛选出在国企中选股表现优异 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. Q2 2024 revenue was 830 million yuan, also down 7.3% year-on-year [2]. - The pre-mixed cocktail segment experienced a short-term revenue decline, with H1 revenue at 1.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%. The company is focusing on expanding consumption scenarios and enhancing brand marketing [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 70.1% in H1 2024, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 71.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points [2]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails and is set to launch a new whiskey product in Q4 2024, aiming to become a leader in the domestic whiskey market [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 1.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 400 million yuan. Q2 2024 revenue was 830 million yuan, and net profit was 230 million yuan [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 70.1%, with a net margin of 24.5%, while Q2 net margin recovered to 28% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated 1.43 billion yuan in H1 2024, while the flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 7.5% to 180 million yuan [2]. - Revenue from offline channels increased by 7%, while digital retail and ready-to-drink channels saw declines of 35.7% and 42.7%, respectively [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 840 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.80 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.08 yuan [3][4]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 22x, 19x, and 16x for the same years [3]. Market Positioning - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand positioning with a 3-5-8 product matrix and aims to strengthen its presence in the whiskey market with new product launches [2]. - The company has completed a share buyback of 4.67 million shares, indicating confidence in its growth prospects [2].

2024H1血制品行业跟踪报告（附批签发） Q2人白增长提速，静丙增速转正 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年7月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：王彦迪 执业证号：S1250524040001 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：wydi@swsc.com.cn 2024H1血制品行业跟踪报告 分品种来看批签发数据，人血白蛋白：2024H1，人血白蛋白批签发2421批(+14%)，其中国产人白获批747 批(+7%)，占比为31%，进口人白获批1674批(+18%)，占比为69%。2024Q2人血白蛋白批签发批次为1247 批（+17%）。免疫球蛋白：2024H1静丙批签发批次为589批（-8%）；其他品种如狂免76批(+73%)、破免 61批(-12%)。2024Q2静丙批签发批次为319批，同比增长12%。凝血因子类：2024H1凝血因子Ⅷ获批258 批(+31%)、PCC获批123批(-18%)、纤原获批122批(-11%)。2024Q2凝血因子Ⅷ获批115批（+16%）、凝血 酶原复合物获批59批 ...

社会服务行业2024年中期投资策略 关注高景气赛道 西南证券研究发展中心 社会服务研究团队 2024年8月1日 投资要点 旅游景区：2023全年旅游市场约恢复至疫情前80%-90%，旅游人均消费超2019年6.7%，2024年国内旅游出游 人数、国内旅游收入预计同比增长25%、23%。2024年上半年，受极端天气影响，国内旅游收入及国内旅游人 次增速不及全年增速预期。国内出游人次27.25亿，同比增长14.3%；国内游客出游总花费2.73万亿元，同比 增长19.0%。相关标的：复苏弹性大且成长性较高的黄山旅游（600054.SH）、宋城演艺（300144.SZ）。 人力资源板块：国家政策持续支持，长期赛道值得关注。国内灵活用工市场尚处于起步阶段，灵活用工使用 率较低，行业集中度提升空间较大。需求端，灵活用工在企业应用的普及度及深度均在增强。供给端，我国 第三产业劳动力占比由2015年的42.3%提升至2023年的48.1%，有68.0%的灵活用工人员上一份工作所在行业 为服务业，第三产业劳动力占比的提升将为灵活用工领域提供更多人员。现政策导向持续推进行业进一步规 范，人社部发布文件进一步明确平台用工合作企业与 ...

2024 ￥ 08 A 01 A 证券研究教学会執工复助态教学 行业配置摄舎 (2024 年 8 月) 行业配置策略与 ETF 组合构建 访夫 。 朴 哀 新配夏观念： 赤光产 桐头 定氣 单什 虽 芮 面 袴 平 工 上月红合状追率表现：2024年７月，红合月度较追率-0.78%，柯较千行业等 权指数超额收益率-0.72%。７月行业配置为：煤炭、非银行会破、家电、电力 及公用事业、标行、る油无化。其中非标行全路越新北海海 7.16%，屯力及公 用 李玉超领妆 这年 1.36%，银行超领妆 这年 2.44%。 ● 分析所预测试所支化什么枪材模型 袁 新配 夏观点：本色会禹 农林牧途 汽本餐行会 孟伏州 七子 上月 组合状追率表现：2024 年 7月，组合月度较追率-367%，桐较千行业等 权指数超额数 吕牵-3.61%。 7月 行业配置为：个品饮料、纺织服装、轻工制途、 有色全爲、家也、名為名化。 ● ETF 是 合为定 最新 ETF 行业短合配置： 点地产、集行、七子、本色全具、食品饮料 • A 世 姓 本 本报告赴论论论全基于公开的历文象据，苹未未市场环境发生变化，因子的实际 表现可能与本文的经论有所差异 ...

Manufacturing PMI - Manufacturing PMI in July 2024 fell by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months[1] - New orders index dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating weak demand for three consecutive months[1] - Production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.1%, still in expansion but showing a downward trend for three months[1] Large vs. Small Enterprises - Large enterprises' PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.5%, while medium and small enterprises' PMI fell by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points to 49.4% and 46.7%, respectively[1] - Large enterprises' production and new orders indices remained in expansion at 52.1% and 50.6%, supporting stable manufacturing operations[8] Price Indices and Inventory - Raw material purchase price index dropped by 1.8 percentage points to 49.9%, falling below the boom-bust line for the first time in a year[12] - Finished product inventory index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 47.8%, indicating weak inventory replenishment[13] Non-Manufacturing PMI - Non-manufacturing PMI declined by 0.3 percentage points to 50.2%, with services PMI touching the boom-bust line at 50.0% for the first time in seven months[17] - Construction PMI fell by 1.1 percentage points to 51.2%, affected by seasonal factors and slower local government bond issuance[18] Export and Import - New export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 48.5%, while import index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.0%, both remaining below the boom-bust line[4] - Short-term export resilience is expected due to potential preemptive export actions amid trade friction concerns[4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) with a target price of 24.00 CNY over the next six months, based on its strong growth potential and market positioning [1][6]. Core Insights - Runben is entering a phase of rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by the specialization and segmentation of the baby care market, which has a low brand concentration. The online sales channel is growing significantly faster than offline, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.3% from 2020 to 2023 for direct online sales [1][25]. - The company has a competitive edge through its integrated research, production, and sales model, allowing for quick product iterations and strong brand recognition among its target audience [1][4]. - The financial forecast indicates a compound annual growth rate of 30% for net profit from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to be 0.73 CNY, 0.96 CNY, and 1.23 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Runben Co., Ltd. specializes in mosquito repellent and baby care products, with a well-established brand and a diverse product matrix [17][18]. Industry Analysis - The mosquito repellent market is steadily growing, with a market size of approximately 8 billion CNY in 2023 and a CAGR of 7.6% from 2018 to 2023. The baby care market is also expanding rapidly, with a CAGR of 11% for single-child care spending from 2017 to 2023 [1][28]. Company Analysis - Runben's integrated model enhances its product competitiveness, with a focus on high cost-performance and innovation. The company has a strong online presence, with 60.1% of its revenue coming from direct online sales [1][23][25]. Growth Potential - There is significant room for improvement in average transaction value and repurchase rates, particularly in underdeveloped markets. The company aims to enhance brand recognition and expand its offline presence [1][4][25]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown robust financial growth, with revenue increasing from 280 million CNY in 2019 to over 1 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 38.7%. The net profit also grew significantly during this period [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company. Core Views - The company is positioned as a platform-type enterprise in electronic materials through global acquisitions, having expanded its business from flame retardants to LNG insulation materials and various electronic materials [2][12]. - The LNG shipping market is performing strongly, with the company holding a full order book for its insulation materials, which will continue to contribute to its performance in the coming years [3][46]. - The company benefits from the domestic substitution demand for color photoresists as panel production capacity shifts eastward, with expectations for increased market share following the local production of photoresist products [4][20]. - The rapid development of AI models is driving high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which in turn boosts the demand for semiconductor precursors, with the global precursor market projected to grow significantly by 2028 [5][28]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997, the company initially focused on foaming agents and later entered the flame retardant industry, becoming the only domestic supplier of LNG insulation materials certified by GTT and classification societies [2][12]. - The company has made several acquisitions since 2016 to expand into electronic materials, including silicon micropowder, electronic specialty gases, semiconductor precursors, and various types of photoresists [2][12]. Market Performance - The LNG shipping market has seen a surge in demand due to greenhouse gas reduction policies and geopolitical factors, with the company being the sole domestic supplier of LNG insulation materials, ensuring a robust order pipeline [3][46]. - The domestic market for color photoresists is still developing, with the company positioned as a key supplier to major panel manufacturers, benefiting from the shift in production capacity [4][20]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record revenue of 4.738 billion yuan in 2023, primarily driven by its photoresist and precursor businesses [2][28]. - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.3% in revenue from 2018 to 2023, with net profit also showing significant growth during this period [28][31]. Competitive Advantages - The company holds a strong market position in electronic materials, supplying major semiconductor manufacturers and being the first domestic supplier of LNG insulation materials [20][28]. - The company has a solid R&D focus, with increasing investment in technology development to enhance its competitive edge [36][37].

卫星互联网专题 ( 三 ) 从发射到终端，我国低轨运力和卫星应用梳理 西南证券研究发展中心 通信研究团队 2024年7月 核心要点 ● 卫星组网即将开启 , 大国博弈背景下的内需新增量。据财联社， "干帆星座" 首批组网卫星发射仪式将于8月5日在太原举行，将以首批1箭18 星拉开我国卫星互联网组网大幕。目前，我国已向国际电联申请了GW星座、干帆星座、鸿鹄星座等低轨卫星星座，申请卫星数量总数近4万颗， 组网发射即将开启。低轨卫星不仅在民用通信发挥重要作用，在紧急时期也将承担军用特殊任务，如Starlink为美国军方提供了"星盾"的卫 星通信服务。因此，我们认为在国家间太空资源博弈的背景下，低坑卫星产业的国产化率有望维持在较高的水平，海量的低轨卫星和商业火箭 制造需求将成为我国内需的新增量。 ● 我国低轨运力能否支撑星座建设？商业火箭和智慧发射场将有效提供运力支持。我国国家队主力火箭为长征系列火箭，除部分型号专用于载人 航天或深空探测外，大部分火箭型号可用于低轨载荷发射，且在研的长征六号X/长征九号/长征八号R等改型将能够重复使用，将为我国低轨卫 星组网提供国家队运力。商业火箭方面，我国目前已有6家商业火箭公司成 ...