[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 02 月 09 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（2.3-2.7） 小鹏重回新势力榜首，智驾平权有望到来 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 分析师：郑连声 执业证号：S1250522040001 电话：010-57758531 邮箱：zlans@swsc.com.cn 分析师：冯安琪 执业证号：S1250524050003 电话：021-58351905 邮箱：faz@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 股票家数 | 262 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 44,403.19 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 38,543.85 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 27.5 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.5 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 -6% 5% 16% 27% 38% 49% 24/2 24/4 24/6 24/8 24/10 24/12 25/2 汽车 沪深300 ...

[2025 Table_IndustryInfo 年 02 月 08 日 ] 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（2.5-2.7） 商务部启动制裁，国产智造迎来契机 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 369 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 47,234.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 42,627.47 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 30.5 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.5 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -16% -7% 2% 10% 19% 27% 24/2 24/4 24/6 24/8 24/10 24/12 25/2 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 [行情回顾： Table_Summary 本周医药生物指数上涨 ] 3.21%，跑赢沪深 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 02 月 09 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0127-0209） 特斯拉开启机器人制造岗位招聘， Figure 即将展示颠覆性成果 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 440 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 35,794.85 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 34,840.90 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 32.6 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.5 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 09 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 春节错月叠加油价走高，CPI 超预期上行 ——2025 年 1 月通胀数据点评 点评 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-55758502 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 [Table_Summary] CPI 同比超预期扩大，非食品价格强于季节性。同比来看，2025 年 1 月，春 节效应推动服务和食品价格上涨，叠加春节错位影响，CPI同比较上月走扩 0.4 个百分点至 0.5%，超过市场一致预期。其中，1月食品价格同比由下降 0.5% 转为上涨 0.4%，非食品价格同比涨幅扩大 0.3个百分点至 0.5%；环比来看， 1 月 CPI 环比由上月持平转为上涨 0.7%，环比增速略高于近十年以来同期平 均上涨 0.68%的水平 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 07 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（1.28-2.7） 商品房成交暖意延续，物价同比去年春节走低 摘要 [Table_Summary] 假日高频数据 上游：原油价格周环比下降，铁矿石、阴极铜价格较节前回升。截至 2月 6日， 当周布伦特原油现货均价周环比下降 2.46%，WTI 原油现货均价周环比下降 1.49%，特朗普关税政策加剧市场对全球经济复苏前景担忧，叠加美国原油库 存意外增加，国际油价走低。截至 2月 6日，当周阴极铜、铁矿石均价分别较 节前（1月 20日-27日）升高 0.13%和 0.71%。截至 2月 5日，当周 CRB 现 货综合指数均值为 543.99，周环比上升 0.43%。 中游：螺纹钢价格较节前上涨，水泥价格较节前回落，动力煤价格持平节前。 截至 2 月 6 日，本周螺纹钢日均价为 3482 元/吨，较春节前日均价（1 月 20 日-27日）环比上涨 0.24%，本周水泥价格指数日均为 120.86，较春节前一周 （1月 20日-24日）环比下降 0.92%，本周秦皇岛港动力煤平仓日均价为 753 元/吨，持平 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a decline in public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with a total public fund holding ratio of 8.85%, down by 0.94 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a decrease in public fund holdings, particularly in active pharmaceutical funds and index funds, with significant declines in their respective holding ratios [10][11]. - The top five stocks by the number of public fund holdings are Heng Rui Medicine (432 funds), Mai Rui Medical (354 funds), WuXi AppTec (255 funds), Renfu Medicine (165 funds), and Kelun Pharmaceutical (136 funds) [3][25]. - The report highlights a notable increase in holdings for WuXi AppTec (+65 funds) and Renfu Medicine (+44 funds), indicating growing interest in these companies [3][25]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - The total public fund holding ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10]. - Excluding active pharmaceutical funds, the holding ratio is 3.80%, down by 2.83 percentage points [10]. - The holding ratio after excluding both active and index funds is 0.41%, down by 5.16 percentage points [10]. - The market capitalization ratio of the Shenwan pharmaceutical sector is 6.06%, down by 0.64 percentage points [10]. Sector Performance - The top five stocks by total market value held by public funds are Mai Rui Medical (30.95 billion), Heng Rui Medicine (29.87 billion), WuXi AppTec (21.46 billion), United Imaging Healthcare (10.9 billion), and Aier Eye Hospital (8.92 billion) [3][10]. - The report notes significant increases in market value for WuXi AppTec (+2.1 billion) and Renfu Medicine (+1.92 billion) [3][10]. Sub-industry Analysis - The report identifies the top three sub-industries with increased public fund holdings: pharmaceutical research outsourcing (10.7%, +2.1 percentage points), medical devices (6.7%, +1.5 percentage points), and blood products (1.1%, +0.5 percentage points) [4][15]. - Conversely, the sub-industries with the largest declines include chemical preparations (15.5%, -3.9 percentage points), medical consumables (2.2%, -1.8 percentage points), and hospitals (2.0%, -0.7 percentage points) [4][15]. Foreign Investment - Foreign investment in the pharmaceutical sector has slightly decreased, with foreign holdings accounting for 2.75% of the total market capitalization, down by 0.06 percentage points, totaling 164.9 billion [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on key companies in the blood products industry, including Shanghai RAAS (002252.SZ), Tian Tan Bio (600161.SH), Weigao Bio (002880.SZ), Hualan Bio (002007.SZ), Palin Bio (000403.SZ), and Boya Bio (300294.SZ) [3] Core Insights - The blood products industry experienced a 14% increase in human albumin batch approvals in 2024, with domestic approvals growing by 9% and imports by 17% [3][8] - Immunoglobulin approvals saw a 3% increase, while specific products like rabies immunoglobulin and tetanus immunoglobulin grew by 24% and 12% respectively [8][46] - The net profit growth for blood product companies was 12% in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching approximately 17.6 billion yuan, a 1.7% increase [3] Batch Approval Summary - Human Albumin: In 2024, total batch approvals reached 5,423 (+14%), with domestic approvals at 1,708 (+9%) and imports at 3,715 (+17%) [3][15] - Immunoglobulin: Total approvals for intravenous immunoglobulin were 1,308 (+3%), with Q4 showing a significant increase of 39% [3][38] - Coagulation Factors: Coagulation factor VIII approvals increased by 33% to 568 batches, while prothrombin complex concentrate (PCC) saw a decrease of 18% [3][69] - Rabies Immunoglobulin: Total approvals reached 148 batches, marking a 24% increase [46][56] - Tetanus Immunoglobulin: Total approvals were 145 batches, reflecting a 12% increase [58][67]

Domestic Highlights - In January 2024, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled CNY 74,310.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%[8] - The profit of the manufacturing sector fell by 3.9% year-on-year, attributed to increased costs and insufficient demand[9] - During the Spring Festival travel period, cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 4.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%[15] AI Industry Developments - Nvidia's DeepSeek-R1 model was released, marking a significant step for China's AI industry towards internationalization and innovation[10] - By the end of 2023, China's AI core industry scale reached CNY 578.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.9%[12] Capital Market Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for six measures to promote high-quality development in the capital market, aiming to stabilize market conditions[13] - The release of supportive policies is expected to enhance the capital market's recovery, with a focus on increasing long-term capital inflows[14] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with a low likelihood of rate hikes in the near term[17] - The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points, indicating ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone[20] - Trump's administration announced tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese goods, potentially impacting trade dynamics significantly[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the utility sector, highlighting growth potential, high dividend yields, and diversified investment opportunities for 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the coal price in Qinhuangdao decreased by 115 CNY/ton year-on-year in 2024, leading to improved cost structures for thermal power companies. The thermal power sector is expected to show positive trends in electricity volume, pricing, and costs in 2025, indicating growth potential. The hydropower and nuclear sectors are characterized by stable operations and strong cash flows, maintaining high dividend values. The deepening of domestic electricity market reforms is anticipated to create diversified investment opportunities across the sector [4][5]. Summary by Sections 2024 Industry Review - The utility sector demonstrated defensive capabilities with significant dividend assets. The overall revenue for the electricity sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 1,462.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.0% to 160.6 billion CNY. The profitability of the electricity sector improved due to a decline in coal prices [15][18]. 2025 Industry Investment Strategy - Thermal Power: The report forecasts stable comprehensive electricity prices for thermal power in 2025, with coal prices expected to trend downward. The utilization hours for thermal power are projected to increase steadily [4][5]. - Hydropower: The sector is expected to attract incremental capital due to its high dividend value in a low-interest-rate environment. The hydropower sector achieved a cumulative return of 23.1% by the end of 2024, outperforming the broader market [4][5]. - Nuclear Power: The approval of new projects is accelerating, with a stable growth outlook for nuclear power companies. The cumulative return for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power reached 43.2% and 36.9%, respectively, in 2024 [4][5]. - Green Energy: The report highlights the recovery of installed capacity development and the deepening of electricity market reforms, which are expected to enhance the investment value of green energy companies [4][5]. Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity thermal power companies and quality green energy firms with significant subsidy proportions. Specific stocks highlighted include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [4][5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the latest industry allocation strategy, recommending sectors such as banking, agriculture, basic chemicals, home appliances, light manufacturing, and construction materials for February 2025 [1][21]. - The performance of the previous month's portfolio showed a monthly return of -2.58% in January 2025, with an excess return of 0.40% compared to the industry equal-weighted index [1]. - The report also emphasizes the use of two industry rotation models: the similar expected difference model and the dynamic analyst expectation model, both of which have demonstrated strong historical performance [9][22]. Similar Expected Difference Industry Rotation Model - The model aims to identify stocks with similar performance that have not yet experienced significant price increases, using a distance metric based on P/E ratios, ROE, and asset growth rates [10][11]. - Historical backtesting from December 2016 to January 2025 indicates that the similar expected difference factor has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.11, with a 63.92% success rate in predicting stock performance [12][13]. - The top six stocks selected based on this model achieved an annualized return of 11.75% with a cumulative net value of 2.18, outperforming the market index [15][16]. Dynamic Analyst Expectation Model - This model utilizes changes in consensus earnings forecasts to gauge industry sentiment, scoring based on the direction and magnitude of forecast changes [22]. - Historical performance from December 2016 to January 2025 shows an IC of 0.07 with a 59.79% success rate, indicating its effectiveness in industry selection [23][24]. - The top six stocks from this model yielded an annualized return of 9.12% and a cumulative net value of 1.75, also outperforming the market index [28][29]. ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for February 2025 includes sectors such as banking, home appliances, automobiles, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals, with specific fund codes and shares listed [38]. - The report provides detailed information on various ETFs, including their fund codes and total shares, emphasizing the importance of selecting funds with significant assets [38].