Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the innovative drug sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, noting a mixed performance with 21 stocks rising and 87 falling in the first week of January 2025. The A-share innovative drug sector decreased by 4.31%, while the Hong Kong sector fell by 4.59% [2][20][26]. - Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has increased by 11.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.18 percentage points, while the Hong Kong sector has risen by 7.7%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.46 percentage points [23][26]. - The report also discusses the approval of new drugs, with two new drugs approved in January domestically and four in the same week, but no new indications were approved [4][30][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In the first week of January 2025, the A-share innovative drug sector saw a decline of 4.31%, while the Hong Kong sector dropped by 4.59%. The XBI index in the US increased by 2.89% [2][20][27]. - The report notes that the A-share innovative drug sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the last six months, while the Hong Kong sector has underperformed the Hang Seng index [23][26]. 2. Drug Approvals - Two new drugs were approved in January domestically, with no new indications approved. In the same week, four new drugs were also approved without new indications [4][30][38]. - In the US, seven NDA approvals were granted in the week, while no new drugs were approved in Europe or Japan [5][34][37]. 3. Key Transactions - The report mentions significant global transactions, including a deal between Innovent Biologics and Roche for $1.08 billion, and other smaller transactions [6][42]. 4. Drug Development Progress - The report details the progress of GLP-1RA drugs for diabetes and obesity, with several drugs at various stages of clinical trials and approvals [13][15]. - It also highlights the sales performance of key drugs, such as the significant sales increase for Tirzepatide and Semaglutide in 2023 [19]. 5. Clinical Trials - The report outlines the number of clinical trials initiated, with 14 new trials announced in January, including various phases of trials for different drugs [33]. 6. Global Market Overview - The report provides an overview of the global innovative drug market, noting the lack of new drug approvals in major markets like Europe and Japan during the reporting period [34][37]. 7. Analyst Commentary - The report includes insights from analysts on the future outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the potential for growth in innovative drug development and market performance [1][8].

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 怡 亚 通（002183）交通运输 目标价：7.06 元（6 个月） 买入 （首次） 当前价：4.13 元 流通巨头，从商社迈向新质生产力 | 指标/年度 [Table_MainProfit] | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 94422.37 | 84891.82 | 84891.82 | 85020.85 | | 增长率 | 10.57% | -10.09% | 0.00% | 0.15% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 140.99 | 107.53 | 132.70 | 190.18 | | 增长率 | -44.95% | -23.73% | 23.40% | 43.32% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | | 每股净资产 BPS（元） | 3.47 | 3.47 | 3.53 | 3.59 | | 净资产收益率 R ...

2024年家电行业整体仍是呈现出较强韧性，在国补政策刺激下、海外补库周期下内外销均表现良好。 需求端：内销方面，Q1渠道补库，Q2-Q3终端需求走弱，整体呈现量价下滑态势，随着9月国补政策陆续 落地推广，Q4市场重新焕发活力，量价齐升，内销市场增速全年呈现V型走势；海外市场方面，补库需求带动 家电外销高景气度持续。根据产业在线数据，2024年1-10月空调、冰箱、洗衣机内销量分别同比增长2%、 2.3%、5.9%，外销量分别同比增长33.7%、19.8%、17.1%。 成本端：铜、铝、ABS等主要大宗原材料价格均有所上涨，主要航线海运费也呈上涨趋势，但家电企业积极 推行效率改革，降本控费，整体盈利能力仍有小幅提升。 家电行业2025年投资策略 政策支撑内销增长，关注外销新兴市场 西南证券研究发展中心 家电研究团队 2024年12月 核 心 观 点 回顾2024年： 市场表现方面：家电行业指数涨幅居前，主要由于年初开始在红利风格影响下，配合家电行业扎实的基本 面表现，家电行业涨幅亮眼。5月，市场开始对原材料涨价、库存、外销基数等方面产生担心，家电行业表现 弱于市场。9月后，随着家电"国补"政策的持续落地刺激内需 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. is currently in the 11th long cycle of prosperity since 1818, with short cycles lasting approximately 3-5 years, influenced mainly by long-term U.S. Treasury yields[2] - Historically, new home sales growth typically turns upward around the time of interest rate cuts, with a lag of about 8.6 months during hard landings and 3 months during soft landings[2][6] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - New home sales showed a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in November 2024, while existing home sales rose by 6.1%, marking the largest increase in three years[2][19] - The affordability index for U.S. residents was at 67 in October 2024, indicating that housing costs exceed 30% of median household income, reflecting weak affordability[27] Group 3: Supply Conditions - As of November 2024, total inventory of new and existing homes was approximately 1.823 million units, remaining low compared to historical levels[2][36] - New home inventory stood at 493,000 units, while existing home inventory was at 1.33 million units, with the latter being significantly lower than historical peaks[36] Group 4: Price Trends - The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in September 2024, down from a peak of 6.57% earlier in the year[2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 4.7% year-on-year in November 2024, while new home prices have been declining since October 2022[2][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of rate cuts in September 2024, reducing rates by 100 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%[2] - A 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates decreases the likelihood of home sales by 18.1%, indicating the significant impact of interest rates on the housing market[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 857 billion yuan, up by about 14.67% [6]. - The company successfully completed its annual targets for 2024 despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the liquor industry cycle, focusing on consumer needs and market challenges [6]. - For 2025, the company aims to address the "supply-demand mismatch" issue and plans to slightly increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor compared to 2024 [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 1505.60 billion yuan - 2024E: 1737.97 billion yuan (growth rate: 15.43%) - 2025E: 1912.10 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.02%) - 2026E: 2093.94 billion yuan (growth rate: 9.51%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023A: 747.34 billion yuan - 2024E: 857.07 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.68%) - 2025E: 945.93 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.37%) - 2026E: 1044.39 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.41%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024E: 68.23 yuan - 2025E: 75.30 yuan - 2026E: 83.14 yuan [2][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to develop new product sizes for Moutai liquor, including 750ml and 400ml bottles aimed at the dining and international markets, while maintaining a focus on its core products [6]. - The company aims for a growth rate of no less than 14% for its series of liquors in 2025, aligning with its average growth over the past five years [6]. - Guizhou Moutai's market strategy includes enhancing its self-operated and social distribution systems to improve overall competitiveness and market reach [6].

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（12.30-1.3） 以旧换新政策延续，汽车智能化加速突破 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -19% -10% -1% 8% 17% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 汽车 沪深300 | 数据来源：聚源数据 | | --- | [Table_Report] 1. 汽车行业周报（12.23-12.27）：全国新 能源充电桩数同比+50%，利好新能源渗 透率提升 (2024-12-30) 2. 汽车行业 2025 年投资策略：电动智能与 机器人共舞，行业周期加速向上 (2024-12-24) 3. 汽车行业周报（12.16-12.20）：预计 12 月乘用车零售 270 万辆，新能源渗透率 可达 51.9% (2024-12-23) 4. 汽车行业周报（12.9-12.13）：11 月新 能源渗透率达 52.3%，以旧换新带动乘 用车销售量超 520 万辆 (2024-12-16 ...

[2025 Table_IndustryInfo 年 01 月 04 日 ] 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（12.30-1.3） 创新药械政策发布，年度持续看好创新+出海主线 2025 年围绕新质生产力和高质量发展大背景，看好医药创新+出海、主题投 资、红利三大主线。 创新+出海主线——创新药：政策端，2024 年 7 月国常会审议通过《全链条 支持创新药发展实施方案》，创新药作为新质生产力之一，顶层设计方案有望 助推创新药快速发展。2024 年 11 月末，创新药医保谈判成功率达 90%以 上，医保强调支持"真创新"药物的政策导向。2024 年 11 月，国家医保局发 文提到引导商保更多支持包容创新药耗和器械，未来支付端商保发展空间值得 关注。研发端，SKB264、AK112 等于 WCLC/ASCO 会议发布肺癌适应症出 色临床数据，国产创新持续亮相；出海方面，2024 年国产新药授权出海百花 齐放，二代 IO、减肥药、自免 TCE、ADC、新机制、新适应症等热点频出。 恒瑞医药以 NewCo 模式实现 GLP-1 产品组合授权出海，交易总金额超 60 亿 美元。医疗器械：随着第五批国采 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（1230-0105） 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary 行情回顾：本周（] 12月 30日-01月 05日）机器人指数跑赢大盘。中证机器人 指数下跌 8.9%，跑输上证指数 3.4个百分点，跑输沪深 300指数 3.8个百分点， 跑输创业板指 0.4 个百分点。 智元开源百万真机数据集，加速人形机器人训练。12月 30日，智元机器人携 手上海人工智能实验室、国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心以及上海库帕思， 重磅发布全球首个基于全域真实场景、全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真 机数据集开源项目 AgiBot World。AgiBot World是全球首个基于全域真实场景、 全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真机数据集。相比 Google 开源的 Open X-Embodiment 数据集，AgiBot World 长程数据规模高出 10倍，场景范围覆 盖面扩大 100 倍，数据质量从实验室级上升到工业级标准。 乐聚年产 200台人形机器 ...

投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 数据来源：聚源数据 -24% -14% -4% 6% 16% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 机械设备 沪深300 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 439 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 32,008.70 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 31,073.83 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 28.9 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.4 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 01 月 03 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（12.30-1.3） 央行持续释放流动性，俄罗斯又断供天然气 摘要 1. 制造业平稳收官，非制造业超预期改善 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 (2025-01-02) 2. 地方专项债管理优化，美国政府再次避 免停摆 (2024-12-27) 3. 加强央企市值管理，美联储降息但放鹰 (2024-12-21) 4. 地产销售同比转涨，消费增速边际回落 ——11 月经济数据点评 (2024-12-17) 5. 直接融资持续支撑社融，化债及购房推 升 M1——11 月社融数据点评 (2024-12-14) 6. 加强超常规逆周期调节，美国 CPI 符合 预期 (2024-12-13) 7. 城市加快智能化发展，美联储降息或更 谨慎 (2024-12-08) 8. 数字化加快推进，"关税威胁"拉响警 报 (2024-11-29) 9. 推进国资"三个集中"，特朗普提名陆 续出炉 (2024-11-22) 10.国内居民消费改善，美联储降息不必匆 忙 (2024-11-15) 0 197 4 [Tabl ...