证券研究报告 2024 年6月 10日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 石油石化行业分析报告 OPEC+部分条款不及预期引发油价下跌，中长期油价仍有望高位运 行 相关研究： 核心要点：  原油价格 1. 《原油价格下跌，OPEC+推迟 关键会议》 2023.11.27 近期原油价格下降。截至2024年6月7日，布伦特原油期货结算价为79.62 美元/桶，相较于一个月前下跌了3.96美元/桶；WTI原油期货结算价为75.53 2. 《红海局势紧张叠加OPEC+减 美元/桶，相较于一个月前下跌了3.46美元/桶。 产 ， 原 油 价 格 高 位 运 行 》 OPEC+部分条款不及预期引发油价下跌，中长期油价仍有望高位运行。2024 2024.2.23 年6月2日，OPEC+（石油输出国组织及其盟友）会议声明，将2023年4 月宣布的日均165万桶的自愿减产措施延长至2025年底，将2023年11月 行业评级：增持 宣布的日均220万桶的自愿减产措施延长至2024年9月底，2024年10月 至2025年9月，将根据市场情况逐步取消这220万桶/天的自愿减产措施。 近十二个月行业表现 这意味着从今年第四季度开始，部分原油 ...

证券研究报告 2024年 06 月 11日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 受二类苗价格下调等因素影响，疫苗行业短期承压明显 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周疫苗下跌4.93%，继续呈现调整状态 相关研究： 上周（2024.06.03-2024.06.07）医药生物报收 7138.19 点，下跌 2.01%；原料药 1. 《肺炎球菌疫苗行业：政策、 报收8352.13点，下跌4.34%；化学制剂报收6634.54点，下跌2.11%；中药Ⅲ 需求、技术共促行业快速发展， 报收6795.16点，上涨0.13%；血液制品报收11092.66点，上涨4.7%；疫苗报 关注优势企业》 20240327 收13044.42点，下跌4.93%；其他生物制品报收8744.6点，下跌2.93%；医疗 2. 《板块表现相对偏弱，长期向 设备报收 10685.93 点，上涨 0.03%；医疗耗材报收 5074.27 点，下跌 4.31%； 好趋势不变》 20240602 体外诊断报收7702.81点，下跌4.17%；医药流通报收2817.36点，下跌2.88%； 线下药店报收16840.02点，下跌 6.51%；医疗研发外包 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The first domestic RSV mRNA vaccine has been approved for clinical trials, marking a significant milestone in the industry [2][4] - Vaccination against RSV is crucial for preventing severe infections and reducing mortality, especially among high-risk groups such as infants, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals [3] - The lack of effective drugs and increased awareness of RSV diagnosis and treatment are driving the rapid development of RSV vaccines [5] - The industry is expected to experience long-term growth driven by policy support, increasing demand, and technological innovation [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of -10% over one month, -26% over three months, and -28% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [1] Recent Developments - The first domestic RSV mRNA vaccine, IN006, developed by Deep Trust Bio, has received clinical trial approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) [2][4] - Currently, there are three RSV vaccines available globally, with domestic companies actively pursuing RSV vaccine development [4] Market Dynamics - The global RSV vaccine market is anticipated to grow rapidly as new vaccines with better preventive effects are introduced [5] - The demand for vaccines is expected to increase due to rising vaccination willingness and an aging population [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on technological innovation and the launch of significant products, as these will be key to the industry's long-term success [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the consumer electronics industry, particularly highlighting the potential of the foldable smartphone supply chain [2][6]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, global foldable smartphone sales increased by 49% year-on-year, with Huawei achieving the highest market share for the first time, surpassing Samsung [2]. - The share of horizontal foldable products exceeded vertical foldable products for the first time, accounting for 55% of global foldable smartphone shipments [2]. - The growth in foldable smartphone sales is driven by the introduction of 5G models, with 84% of Huawei's foldable smartphone shipments in Q1 2024 being 5G devices [2]. - Domestic manufacturers are expected to benefit from the rapid growth in foldable smartphone shipments, with a projected global sales volume of 55 million units by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 61.32% from 2022 to 2025 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The report notes that global smartphone sales showed a recovery with year-on-year growth rates of -0.1%, 8.5%, and 7.8% for Q3 2023, Q4 2023, and Q1 2024 respectively [6]. - Global PC sales also showed slight recovery with year-on-year growth rates of -7.6%, -2.7%, and 1.5% for the same quarters [6]. Section 2: Product Insights - The report highlights that several manufacturers are set to launch new vertical foldable products, which are expected to drive rapid growth in their sales [2]. - Domestic foldable smartphone products are noted to have advantages over Samsung's offerings, particularly in terms of weight and thickness, which enhances their market competitiveness [2]. Section 3: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies investment opportunities in the hinge, UTG cover, and panel sectors within the foldable smartphone supply chain [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machine tool industry, recommending to focus on leading domestic companies in this sector [5][23]. Core Viewpoints - The machine tool industry is expected to gradually recover due to the implementation of equipment renewal policies and a long-term update cycle in the industry. The April data from the Machine Tool Association indicates improvements in key operational metrics [4][5][23]. - Despite a decline in the PMI in May due to high base effects, production and business expectation indices remain at high levels, indicating potential for recovery in the manufacturing sector [5][23]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - In the first four months of 2024, key enterprises in the machine tool sector reported a 3.0% year-on-year decline in revenue, with a narrowing of the decline by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous period. Total profits decreased by 3.7%, with an increase in the decline by 0.4 percentage points [4]. - The new orders for metal cutting machine tools fell by 4.9% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous period. The backlog of orders decreased by 14.7%, with a narrowing of the decline by 5.4 percentage points [4]. - The production of metal cutting machine tools reached 211,000 units, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, while the production of metal forming machine tools dropped by 16.4% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for demand recovery in the machine tool industry, driven by the gradual implementation of equipment renewal policies and a long-term update cycle. It suggests that investors should pay attention to leading domestic companies in the machine tool sector [5][23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][10][20]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, achieving an operating income of 22.588 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.412 billion yuan, up 11.90% [2][10]. - The operational efficiency of the company is highlighted, with a gross profit margin of 38.21%, the highest among its peers in the A-share offline pharmacy sector, and a net profit margin of 6.25%, also leading the industry [3][10]. - The company is expanding its store network significantly, adding 3,196 new stores in 2023, with a total of 13,250 stores by the end of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.04% [4][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported an operating income of 5.971 billion yuan, a 13.39% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 407 million yuan, up 20.89% [2][10]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates revenues of 26.858 billion yuan, 32.990 billion yuan, and 41.186 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.533 billion yuan, 1.867 billion yuan, and 2.248 billion yuan respectively [10][20]. Business Expansion Strategy - The company follows a "regional focus and steady expansion" strategy, targeting core areas in Central South, East China, and North China while expanding nationwide through new openings, acquisitions, and franchises [4][16][19]. - The company has established a multi-tiered store network, including flagship stores, regional center stores, medium-sized community stores, and small community stores [4][16]. Online and Offline Integration - The company is actively engaging in the online and offline integration strategy, establishing various pharmacy types to capture hospital prescription outflows, including DTP specialty pharmacies and dual-channel medical insurance pharmacies [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the engineering machinery industry, indicating a potential bottoming out of the current down cycle, with recommendations to focus on leading companies benefiting from the recovery in excavator sales and those with rapid growth in overseas markets [6][26]. Core Insights - In May 2024, excavator sales in China reached 17,824 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.04%, with domestic sales up by 29.2% [5][6]. - The report highlights that the increase in excavator sales is driven by infrastructure and water conservancy project investments, alongside the gradual implementation of equipment renewal policies [6][26]. - The construction machinery operating rate reached 57.55% in April, with excavators showing a continuous increase over five months, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [6][26]. - The report notes a narrowing decline in excavator exports over the past three months, suggesting an improvement in overseas market conditions [6][26]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Data - In May 2024, a total of 17,824 excavators were sold, with domestic sales at 8,518 units (up 29.2%) and exports at 9,306 units (down 8.92%) [5]. - For the first five months of 2024, total excavator sales were 86,610 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.92% [5]. Loader Sales Data - In May 2024, loader sales reached 9,824 units, with domestic sales at 5,172 units (up 14.3%) and exports at 4,652 units (up 2.4%) [5]. - For the first five months of 2024, total loader sales were 46,224 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.78% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the engineering machinery and upstream components sectors that are expected to benefit from the recovery in excavator sales and those with strong overseas business growth [6][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, focusing on companies with strong financing channels, land acquisition capabilities, and reasonable land reserve layouts [8][19]. Core Insights - The new policies implemented in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have shown immediate effects, particularly in stimulating demand for second-hand housing in Shanghai, which saw a significant increase in transaction volume [5][19]. - The report emphasizes that while the effects of the new policies are likely to continue into June, the sustainability of transaction volume recovery remains to be observed, as consistent volume stabilization is necessary to support prices and alter public expectations regarding price declines [19]. Summary by Sections Shanghai - Following the policy adjustments on May 17, Shanghai experienced a notable increase in second-hand housing transactions, with average daily sales rising from 660 units to 853 units, marking a 29.2% increase [5][10]. - The new policies included a reduction in the social security requirement for non-local buyers and significant cuts in down payment ratios and loan interest rates, which have stimulated short-term demand [5][10]. Guangzhou - Guangzhou's new policies, effective from May 28, significantly relaxed purchase restrictions, reducing the social security requirement for non-local families from 2 years to 6 months, the most lenient among the four first-tier cities [6][15]. - New home transactions increased by 23.4% from April, while the second-hand market saw a rise in listings due to the removal of the 2-year sales restriction, which may lead to price pressures but also increased transaction activity [6][15]. Shenzhen - Shenzhen optimized its purchase restrictions on May 6, resulting in a 19% increase in second-hand home transactions in the week following the policy change [7][15]. - The subsequent policy adjustments on May 28 did not significantly alter new home sales, but the market remains at a relatively high level, with expectations for gradual recovery in June [7][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous deepening of reforms in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly focusing on the support for innovative drug development and the establishment of a comprehensive medical insurance payment system [4][5]. - It emphasizes the potential for recovery in the industry, suggesting that the first quarter confirmed a bottoming out of performance, with a favorable opportunity for left-side positioning in investments [6]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: innovative drugs, raw materials, and state-owned enterprise reforms, indicating a strategic approach to selecting investment targets based on clinical demand, technological platforms, and product strength [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent government initiatives aimed at enhancing the innovation ecosystem in the pharmaceutical sector, including the establishment of guidelines for supporting innovative drug development [4]. - It notes the ongoing reforms in medical insurance payment methods, which are expected to favor innovative drugs and advanced medical technologies [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies that are entering a new international cycle and benefiting from an improved commercialization environment [6]. - It also points to the raw materials sector, which is expected to see a recovery as the inventory adjustment cycle completes [6]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in state-owned enterprises that show potential for profit improvement and have a high safety margin [6]. Long-term Outlook - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical industry is entering a high-quality development phase, driven by systemic reforms and the successful establishment of an innovation ecosystem during the 13th Five-Year Plan [6]. - It anticipates that the industry will experience a transformation and upgrade, presenting historical opportunities for growth in the biopharmaceutical sector [6].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - In May 2024, there were 7 Class 1 new drug applications and 6 improved new drug applications submitted for approval, with 6 Class 1 new drugs approved for market entry [2] - The enthusiasm for research and development in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) remains high, with 19 products reported for production by May 31, 2024, compared to 23 products in the entire year of 2023 [3] - The proportion of Class 1 innovative drugs and Class 3 new drugs (ancient classic prescriptions) is evenly split at 50% each among the approved products in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The TCM industry is experiencing a surge in new drug applications and approvals, with a notable increase in the number of innovative drugs being developed [3] Policy and Market Trends - The TCM sector is driven by clinical needs and policy support, leading to a combination of traditional knowledge and modern research methodologies [4] - The industry is expected to see structural differentiation, with companies aligning with policy trends likely to perform well [4] Investment Opportunities - Two main investment themes are identified: 1. TCM innovation, focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and products that meet clinical needs [4] 2. New consumption opportunities under the "TCM+" perspective, including retail pharmacy terminals and brand TCM products [4][5]