Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [4][28] Core Viewpoints - The dairy sector has attracted significant market attention, benefiting from the expected improvement in the supply - demand pattern and the stimulation of the three - child subsidy policy. The dairy industry is expected to see a bottom - up recovery in fundamentals in the second half of the year [3][27] - The food and beverage sector has the opportunity for value re - evaluation. In the short term, it may initiate a recovery market at the beginning of economic warming; in the long - term, the improvement of fundamentals is highly certain, and the long - term logic of consumption upgrading remains stable [4][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Since 2021, the Chinese dairy industry has faced the dual dilemmas of oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decline in raw milk prices and a large loss - making area in the raw milk industry [10] - In 2019, the profit of dairy cow breeding in China increased significantly, leading to an expansion of dairy cow breeding and a rapid growth in milk production. By 2023, China's milk production reached 41.97 million tons, nearly 14% higher than in 2021 [10] Demand Side - After 2021, affected by the consumption environment, the national dairy consumption declined. In 2022, the per - capita dairy consumption in China was 42.0 kg, 0.6 kg less than the previous year. In 2023, it slightly rebounded to 42.2 kg, but still only one - third of the world average [15] - Since the second half of 2021, the price of fresh milk has been continuously decreasing, and the loss - making area of the raw milk industry has exceeded 80%. Currently, the supply side is continuously reducing production capacity, and the raw milk price has dropped from the highest level of 4.38 yuan/kg in 2021 to 3.08 yuan/kg on March 13, 2025, a decrease of 29.7% [15] Supply - Demand Policy Boosting Confidence - Supply - side policy: The 2025 No. 1 Central Document proposed to promote the relief of the milk industry, stabilize the basic production capacity, implement the national standard for sterilized milk, and support the integrated development of dairy farming and processing. The upgrade of the dairy quality standard system will force industrial technology upgrading and accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity [16] - Demand - side policy: The 2025 "Government Work Report" pointed out measures to promote fertility, including issuing parenting subsidies and increasing the supply of inclusive childcare services [16] - Driven by policies, dairy demand is expected to pick up. The per - capita dairy consumption in China is low, and there is a large upward space for dairy demand. The raw milk price is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and the supply - demand pattern of the dairy industry is expected to improve next year [20] Dairy Industry Pattern in China - The current competition pattern of the dairy industry is relatively stable, forming a duopoly pattern of "two super - strong and many strong" [23] - The dairy consumption structure is mainly liquid milk and milk powder, with a relatively small proportion of cheese [24] Investment Suggestions - Focus on three directions in the dairy industry: leading enterprises with scale effects and product structure upgrading capabilities; enterprises with layouts in low - temperature dairy products and high - end products; upstream livestock enterprises [3][27] - Pay attention to two investment main lines in the food and beverage industry: sectors with large valuation elasticity such as dairy products, liquor, beer, and condiments; snack and soft drink sectors with high prosperity [4][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1][25]. Core Viewpoints - In January and February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0%, reaching 83,731 billion yuan, with retail sales excluding automobiles increasing by 4.8% to 76,838 billion yuan [6][1]. - Offline retail formats are generally recovering, with convenience store sales increasing by 9.8% year-on-year [2][12]. - The "old-for-new" policy has driven a sustained increase in home appliance consumption, with a growth rate of 10.9% in January and February 2025 [3][15]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Growth - The total retail sales of consumer goods in January and February 2025 reached 83,731 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [6]. - Retail sales of goods amounted to 73,939 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while catering revenue was 9,792 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [2][9]. Offline Retail Recovery - The offline retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in convenience stores and supermarkets [2][12]. - The growth in retail sales for convenience stores, professional stores, supermarkets, and department stores was 9.8%, 5.4%, 4.0%, and 0.4% respectively [12]. Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted the sales of home appliances, which have seen a growth rate of 10.9% in early 2025 [3][15]. - The food and oil retail sales have been steadily increasing, maintaining a monthly year-on-year growth rate of around 10% since the second half of 2024 [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential in offline retail, particularly those with high growth rates in sub-sectors [4][24]. - It highlights the potential of domestic beauty brands, which are gaining consumer recognition and market share, particularly in the context of rational consumption [4][24].

证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 电力行业数据点评 1-2 月全社会用电量同比增长 1.3%，风光发电保持较快增长 相关研究： | 核心要点： | | --- | ❑ 1-2 月全社会用电量同比增长 1.3%，增速放缓主要受气温影响 国家能源局发布 2 月份全社会用电量数据。2025 年 1-2 月，全社会用电量 为 15564 亿千瓦时，同比增长 1.3%，增速同比下降 9.7pct。分产业来看， 第一产业用电量 208 亿千瓦时，同比增长 8.2%，增速同比下降 2.9pct；第 二产业用电量 9636 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.9%，增速同比下降 8.8pct；第三 产业用电量 2980 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.6%，增速同比下降 12.1pct；城乡 居民生活用电量 2740 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.1%，增速同比下降 10.4pct。 2025 年 1-2 月电力消费增速较上年同期放缓，一方面是受上年为闰年影响， 另一方面今年气温较往年同期偏高。 其中，2 月全社会用电量为 7434 亿千瓦时，同比增长 8.6%。分产业来看， 第一产业用电量 98 亿千瓦时，同比 ...

电力行业 煤价持续走低，看好火电度电盈利修复 分析师：孙菲 登记编号：S0500524010002 2025年3月24日 核心观点 ◼ 煤炭库存高位，煤价有望继续调整 ➢ 截至2025/3/17 ，秦皇岛5500K动力煤市场价为690元/吨，较2024年底下降11.5%（约下降90元/吨）。今年3月初以来国内主流港口煤 炭库存、京唐港动力煤库存平均水平均处历史同期高位。2025年1-2月我国煤及褐煤进口均价为85美元/吨，较2024年进口均价下降 11.2%。展望二季度，随着气温逐渐回升，供暖需求下降，动力煤逐渐进入淡季，煤价有望震荡下行。预计2025全年煤价中枢整体有 望进一步下移，推动火电企业燃料成本下行，盈利得到持续修复。 ◼ 长协煤履约要求放宽，火电企业成本改善弹性有望放大 ➢ 2025年电煤中长期合同签订履约工作中对煤企签定量和双方履约比例要求均有放缓，煤企签订量最低要求从2024年"自有资源量 80%"降至"自有资源量75%"，履约要求从2024年"全年足额完成履约任务"变更为"全年原则上足额履约，最低不得低于90%"。 目前煤价持续走弱，长协煤履约要求放宽有利于火电企业灵活调整煤炭采购结构，企业 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 煤炭行业周报 煤价偏弱，静待需求恢复 相关研究： | 1.《供给存在收缩预期，动力 | | | --- | --- | | 煤支撑渐强》 | 2024.12.31 | | 2.《电厂去库持续，煤价止跌》 | | | 2025.01.07 | | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -17% -10% -21% 绝对收益 -27% -23% -34% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 煤炭(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王逸奇 证书编号：S0500524080002 Tel：(8621) 50293519 Email：wyq06893@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：煤炭板块下跌 0.86% 上周（3.17-3.21）煤炭板块（801950.SI）下跌 0.86%，同期沪深 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土永磁行业周报 上周稀土原料价格小幅调整，钕铁硼价格保持平稳 相关研究： | 《上周行业回调，终端需求有所释放支撑钕 | | | --- | --- | | 铁硼价格随原料上移》 | 20250319 | | 《上周稀土原料价格走弱，钕铁硼价格暂 | | | 稳》 | 20250310 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 1 6 11 绝对收益 0 5 21 -20% -5% 10% 25% 40% -40% -15% 10% 35% 60% 稀土磁材(长江)指数行业涨跌幅 对比基准:沪深300累计涨跌幅-右 ❑ 市场行情：上周稀土磁材行业下跌 2.82%，跑输基准 0.53pct 上周稀土磁材行业下跌 2.82%，跑输基准（沪深 300）0.53pct。行业估值 （市盈率 TTM）回落 1.7x 至 65.9x，当前处于 81%1历史分位。 ❑ 上周稀土精矿价格保持平稳 轻稀土矿方面，上周国内混合碳酸稀土矿、四川氟碳铈矿及山东氟碳铈矿 价格分别持平于 2.6 万元/吨、2.3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The lithium battery materials industry experienced a decline of 4.03% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 1.74 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 1.84 times to 32.34 times, currently at 21.8% of its historical percentile [5][13] - The demand for lithium battery materials is recovering, but the supply remains excessive, leading to low overall operating rates in the industry. The long-term demand in the energy storage market is expected to benefit from policy continuity and downstream procurement support, but the supply-side differentiation continues [13][50] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Last week, the lithium battery materials industry fell by 4.03%, underperforming the benchmark by 1.74 percentage points. The industry valuation decreased to 32.34 times, which is at 21.8% of its historical percentile [5][13] Positive Electrode Materials - Last week, the prices of ternary precursors remained stable, while lithium source prices decreased. The prices of ternary materials showed a slight increase, with head enterprises recovering demand. The inventory increased due to supply chain fluctuations [6][10] - The prices for ternary precursor NCM111, NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 were stable at 80,500 CNY/ton, 79,000 CNY/ton, 81,000 CNY/ton, and 89,000 CNY/ton respectively [6] Phosphate Iron Lithium Materials - The price of phosphate iron lithium for power applications increased by 0.56% to 36,000 CNY/ton, while the storage type rose by 0.74% to 34,000 CNY/ton. The overall demand in March was stronger compared to February, driven by increased demand from the power sector [7][10] Electrolytes - The price of lithium phosphate remained stable at 60,500 CNY/ton, with solvent and additive prices mostly steady. The overall demand for electrolytes was acceptable, with slight increases in demand from leading enterprises [9][10] Negative Electrode Materials - The average market price for artificial graphite negative electrode materials remained stable at 33,400 CNY/ton, while natural graphite prices held steady at 35,600 CNY/ton. The production of negative electrode materials increased by 2.21% to 45,950 tons [10][11] Membranes - The price of dry-process membranes increased by 4.88% to 0.43 CNY/sqm, while wet-process membranes remained stable at 1.01 CNY/sqm. The production of membranes increased by 1.03% to 49,000 million sqm [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The current industry valuation is at a historical low, providing some potential for rebound. However, the overall profitability of the sector is constrained by supply-demand imbalances, and the industry is expected to maintain low prices and profitability levels [13][50]

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗服务行业周报 医保统计快报发布，支付方式变革创新产业受益 --医疗服务行业周报 3.17-3.23 相关研究： 核心要点： 上周医药生物下跌 1.41%，位列申万一级行业第 20 位 上周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 1.41%，涨幅排名位列申万 31 个一级行业 第 20 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 2.29%，医药跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.88%。申万 医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 5544.64 点，下跌 1.65%；中药 II 报 收 6383.36 点，上涨 0.02%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 10385.97 点，下跌 1.12%； 生物制品Ⅱ报收 5962.42 点，下跌 1.10%；医药商业Ⅱ报收 5053.71 点， 下跌 2.72%；医疗器械 II 报收 6261.97 点，下跌 2.61%。细分板块来看， 医药商业跌幅较大。 从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有：创新医疗（+5.2%）、 药明康德（+4.8%）、诺泰生物（+4.3%）、华厦眼科（+4.2%）、ST 中珠（+3.9%）； 表现靠后的公司 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 前 2 月我国机床和工业机器人产量保持增长，下游需 求有望持续复苏 ——机械行业周报（03.17~03.23） 相关研究： 1.《20250303湘财证券-机械行业：2 月我国制造业PMI为50.2%，环比回 升1.1个百分点》 2.《20250317湘财证券-机械行业： 多数品种销量保持增长，工程机械 复苏有望持续》 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 9.4 10.5 17.3 绝对收益 10.7 9.9 28.6 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 上周机械设备行业下跌 0.8%，跑赢大盘 ...

行业研究 银行业周报 一季度货币政策例会召开，金融与财政协同加强 证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 | 1.《2025年度策略：积极政策下的 | | | --- | --- | | 股息选择》 | 2024.12.19 | | 2.《宽信用力度有望加强，银行股 | | | 高股息优势延续》 | 2025.01.07 | | 3.《结构性工具支持宽信用，金融 | | | 风险防控取得成效》 | 2025.03.18 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.08 4.93 13.49 | | 1.52 | 6.79 | 25.64 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | | | | 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 市场回顾：银行指数上涨 1.10%，农商行市场表现领先 本期（2025.03.17 至 2025.03.23）银行(申万) 指数上涨 1.10%， ...