Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December rose to 50.10%, marking the first expansion since April, driven by synchronized recovery in production and demand [2] - New export orders index increased from 45.90% in October to 49% in December, while the new orders index rose to 50.80%, indicating expansion [2] - The production index for December reached 51.70%, with large enterprises leading at 50.80%, while medium and small enterprises showed improvements but remained below the expansion threshold [2] Stock Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations from December 29 to December 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 18.41% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 29.87% over the year [3] - The technology sector benefited from the development of domestic models, while the "anti-involution" policy boosted cyclical stocks, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [3][4] - The overall performance of A-share indices in 2025 was positive, with significant gains in the ChiNext Index (49.57%) and the STAR Market Index (46.30%) [3] Industry Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals and communication sectors saw substantial annual gains of 94.73% and 84.75%, respectively, while the food and beverage sector faced declines [4] - The aerospace equipment II and communication equipment sectors led the secondary industry gains with increases of 146.03% and 130.60% [4] - The communication network equipment and aerospace equipment III sectors recorded the highest gains among tertiary industries, with increases of 176.57% and 146.03% [4] Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the report suggests a favorable policy environment for industrial upgrades, supporting a "slow bull" market [5] - The report highlights potential in insurance, securities, and agriculture-related sectors, as well as opportunities in aerospace aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of efficiency optimization and product innovation in the home appliance industry, recommending focus on leading companies in white goods and emerging technologies [11] Home Appliance Industry Insights - The home appliance sector saw a 0.7% increase, with components leading the gains, while the overall market remains competitive [7] - The current PE ratio for the home appliance industry is 15.33, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the broader market, suggesting investment potential [8] - January 2026 production for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed mixed results, with total production increasing by 6% year-on-year [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The weekly market amplitude narrowed, 50ETF and 300ETF slightly pulled back, while 500ETF showed high resilience. The overall trading volume in the options market shrank, and the open interest slightly increased, which was related to the pre - holiday cautious sentiment. However, from the perspective of implied volatility level and shape, the overall wait - and - see sentiment did not rise significantly. The report maintained the relatively optimistic view from the previous period and was also bullish on the performance of the growth sector [4][46] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot - Futures Market Review 1.1. Underlying Asset Market - From December 29th to December 31st, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated during the week, closing at 3968.84 with lower trading volume compared to the previous week. The Shenzhen Component Index also fluctuated, closing at 13525.02 with lower trading volume. - 50ETF opened at 3.120 at the beginning of the week and closed at 3.105 at the weekend, down 0.015 or 0.48% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 5.981 billion yuan. Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300ETF opened at 4.780 and closed at 4.753, down 0.031 or 0.65%, with a trading volume of 9.521 billion yuan. Southern CSI 500ETF opened at 7.579 and closed at 7.588, up 0.008 or 0.11%, with a trading volume of 7.777 billion yuan [2][7] 1.2. Index Futures Market - From December 29th to December 31st, all IH contracts of stock index futures closed down. Contract IH2601 fell by 0.79%. All IF contracts closed down, and contract IF2601 fell by 0.77%. All IC contracts closed down, with contract IC2601 falling by 0.01% [8] 2. Options Market Review 2.1. Trading and Open Interest - From December 29th to December 31st, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total open interest increased. The average daily trading volume was 600,912 contracts, a decrease of 170,092 from the previous week. The total open interest was 1,076,466 contracts, an increase of 69,862 from the previous weekend. The total open - interest PCR was 0.92, a decrease of 0.06 from the previous weekend [12] - The average daily trading volume of Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300ETF options decreased, and the total open interest increased. The average daily trading volume was 755,077 contracts, a decrease of 197,862 from the previous week. The total open interest was 1,090,086 contracts, an increase of 47,280 from the previous weekend. The total open - interest PCR was 0.87, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous weekend [15] - The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options decreased, and the total open interest increased. The average daily trading volume was 1,063,830 contracts, a decrease of 302,468 from the previous week. The total open interest was 1,065,802 contracts, an increase of 67,144 from the previous weekend. The total open - interest PCR was 1.07, basically unchanged from the previous weekend [19] 2.2. Volatility 2.2.1. Historical Volatility - As of December 31st, the 5 - day historical rolling volatility of 50ETF rose to 4.72%, near the five - year historical low. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 4.72%, 4.13%, 8.01%, and 9.71% respectively [23] - The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300ETF rose to 5.97%, near the 25th percentile of the five - year historical level. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 5.97%, 7.43%, 10.50%, and 12.44% respectively [27] - The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Southern CSI 500ETF rose to 7.73%, near the 25th percentile of the five - year historical level. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 7.73%, 9.77%, 13.80%, and 16.65% respectively [28] 2.2.2. Implied Volatility - Before the holiday, the market trading volume shrank, the volatility level changed little, and the overall shape of implied volatility basically maintained the original situation. Currently, the curve shapes of 50ETF and 300ETF options remain relatively right - skewed, while the curve shape of 500ETF options is slightly left - skewed [32] 2.2.3. Comparison of Historical and Implied Volatility Trends - In terms of volatility, short - term volatility continued to remain at a relatively low level, currently at around the 25th percentile of the historical level. Monthly volatility also declined slightly. Before the holiday, implied volatility rose slightly, with an increase of less than 1%. The volatility difference widened, but the overall level was relatively controllable. The market sentiment was stable during the pre - holiday trading, and the volatility level only increased slightly, with the overall volatility remaining at a low level [39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The weekly market amplitude narrowed, 50ETF and 300ETF slightly pulled back, while 500ETF showed high resilience. The overall trading volume in the options market shrank, and the open interest slightly increased, which was related to the pre - holiday cautious sentiment. However, from the perspective of implied volatility level and shape, the overall wait - and - see sentiment did not rise significantly. The report maintained the relatively optimistic view from the previous period and was also bullish on the performance of the growth sector [4][46]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The market performance for the Chinese medicine sector showed a slight decline of 1.67% last week, which is relatively smaller compared to other pharmaceutical segments [1]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is reported at 26.63X, with a slight decrease of 0.45X week-on-week, indicating a valuation within the historical range [2]. - The demand for tonic herbs continues to grow, leading to a slight increase in the Chinese medicinal herb price index, which rose by 0.1% last week [3]. - The integration of Chinese medicinal pieces into a national drug traceability code system is accelerating, which is expected to enhance the quality and management of the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector index closed at 6234.32 points, down 1.67% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector index fell by 2.06% [1][11]. - Notable companies with strong performance include Wanbangde, Tianmu Pharmaceutical, and Guhang Medicine, while underperformers include *ST Changyao and ST Hulahua [1][17]. Valuation - The current PE ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 26.63X, with a year-to-date maximum of 30.26X and a minimum of 24.72X [2]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 2.24X, with a year-to-date maximum of 2.52X and a minimum of 2.17X [2]. Industry Trends - The demand for tonic herbs is on the rise, contributing to a slight increase in the price index for Chinese medicinal herbs [3]. - The national drug traceability system for Chinese medicinal pieces is being implemented, which is expected to improve the quality and traceability of medicinal materials [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [5]. - Specific investment targets include companies with strong R&D capabilities, unique products, and those less affected by price reductions due to centralized procurement [9].

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 12 月 PMI 重回扩张区间，关注通用设备、机器人 ——机械行业周报（2025.12.29~2025.12.31） 相关研究： 1.《20251213湘财证券-机械行业：持续 推荐锂电专用设备、燃气轮机、机器 人》 2.《20251221湘财证券-机械行业：11月 工程机械需求持续好转，工业机器人产 量保持快速增长》 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 6.9 3.4 27.5 绝对收益 9.1 3.2 50.2 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 通用设备：2025 年 12 月 PMI 为 50.1%，环比上升 0. ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 湘财证券研究所 相关研究： | 1.《近期板块走强，关注零售百货 | | --- | | 业态变革》 2024.12.11 | | 2.《2024年社零总额增长3.5%，线 | | 下商超业态平稳复苏》2025.01.24 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0.0 5.7 -10.4 绝对收益 0.0 5.5 12.3 -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 沪深300 商贸零售(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：聂孟依 证书编号：S0500524040001 Tel：(8621) 50299667 Email：nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 行业研究 商贸零售行业周报 元旦假期文旅消费数据出炉，关注相关零售产业链 核心要点： ❑ 商贸零售板块上周下跌 1.63% 根据 wind，上周，商贸零售报收 2422.59 点，下跌 1.63%，涨幅排名位列 申万一级行业第26位，跑输沪深300指数1.04个百分点；贸易Ⅱ报收4 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The vaccine industry is experiencing steady growth, with 68 preventive vaccines approved for clinical trials in 2025, an increase of 13 from 2024 [3] - The industry is transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and homogenized competition, but the long-term outlook remains positive [9][24] - Key drivers for the industry's development include policy support, increasing demand due to aging populations, and technological innovation [9][26] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The approval of new vaccines is on the rise, with significant advancements in innovative vaccines and multi-valent products [3] - The market is characterized by a high proportion of Me-too products, leading to intense competition and price declines [8] Market Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a cumulative decline of 12.35% since the beginning of 2025, with a recent weekly drop of 2.52% [4][14] - Companies such as Olin Bio, Hualan Biological, and CanSino have shown better performance, while companies like Gendik and Wantai Biologics have lagged [5] Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 90.01X, down 2.34X from the previous period, while the PB (lf) stands at 1.74X, reflecting a slight decrease [6] Investment Recommendations - The industry is advised to focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated product lines, particularly those with high technical barriers [9][26] - Companies like CanSino and Kanghua Biological are recommended due to their innovative strengths and market demand resilience [9][26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [9][39]. Core Insights - The financial stability report indicates that the asset quality of banks continues to consolidate, with significant progress in resolving debt risks associated with financing platforms and managing risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions [8][36]. - As of the end of 2024, approximately 40% of financing platforms have exited the platform sequence through market-oriented transformations, with the scale of operational financial debt for these platforms around 14.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 25% from early 2023 [9][36]. - The average interest rate for newly issued bonds by financing platforms dropped to 2.67% in Q4 2024, a reduction of over 2 percentage points compared to Q1 2023, indicating a significant decrease in financing risk premiums [9][36]. - The overall risk status of national banks is stable, with 71% of the asset scale concentrated in 21 national banks, and the majority of ratings falling within levels 1-5 [9][36]. - The report highlights that there are no "red zone" banks in nine provinces, and the number of "red zone" banks in 13 provinces remains in single digits, indicating a significant reduction in existing risks across most regions [10][36]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of -10.7% and an absolute return of 7.0% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The banking sector's profitability is stabilizing at the bottom, with ongoing risk management in key areas such as urban investment and real estate, creating conditions for valuation recovery [12][39]. - In a low-interest-rate environment, the high dividend advantage of bank stocks is expected to continue, highlighting their investment value [12][39]. - Recommended banks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, CITIC Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Suzhou Bank [12][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the medical services industry [5][66]. Core Insights - The medical and biological sector experienced a decline of 2.06% this week, ranking 28th among 31 primary industries [1][11]. - The AI pharmaceutical company Insilico Medicine was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HKD 2.277 billion, marking it as the highest fundraising biotech IPO in 2025 [4][63]. - AI technology is significantly reducing the time and costs associated with drug discovery and clinical trials, with potential savings of approximately USD 26 billion annually in compound screening and clinical trial costs [5][65]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical services sector's PE (ttm) is 31.28X, with a PB (lf) of 3.17X, showing a decrease of 0.52X in PE and 0.05X in PB from the previous week [3][30]. - The medical services II sub-industry index closed at 6363.18 points, down 1.40% [22][23]. Company Performance - Top-performing companies in the medical services sector include: - Purui Eye Hospital (+5.3%) - Sanbo Brain Science (+4.7%) - Puris (+3.0%) - Tigermed (+2.9%) - Baicheng Pharmaceutical (+2.2%) - Underperforming companies include: - Bid Pharmaceutical (-6.6%) - Sunshine Nuohua (-6.1%) - Zhaoyan New Drug (-5.2%) - International Medicine (-4.0%) - Kanglong Chemical (-3.5%) [2][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas such as ADC CDMO and peptide CDMO in the pharmaceutical outsourcing services, with companies like WuXi AppTec, Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, and WuXi Biologics being highlighted [9][66]. - It also recommends looking at third-party medical testing laboratories and consumer healthcare sectors, particularly in ophthalmology and dentistry, with companies like Aier Eye Hospital and Dean Diagnostics [9][66].

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 03 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 房地产行业周报 需求依旧偏弱，政策仍需加码 相关研究： 1.《周度观点：成交下行压力加大， 关注后续政策落地》 2025.12.14 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6 -9 -16 -15% -5% 5% 15% 沪深300 房地产(申万) 绝对收益 -4 -9 0 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 核心城市：2025 年一线城市二手房成交韧性较强，新房需求仍然较弱 北京：根据 Wind 数据，北京近一周（12.25-12.31）二手房、新房日均成交 套数同比降幅收窄，主要受"12.24"限购放松带动需求短期释放。其中， 二手住宅日均成交 702 套（同比-8%），降幅显著收窄至两位数以内；新房 日均成交 159 套（同比-31%），尽管降幅较前两周收窄，但去年基 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Fund Market Tracking and ETF Strategy Allocation Monthly Report [2] - Report Date: January 3, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Li Zhengwei [6] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information was provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - As of December 31, 2025, the number and total net asset value of funds in the market continued to rise and the growth - oriented funds outperformed the value - oriented funds in December 2025 [4][11] - The scale of the ETF market also expanded in December 2025, with stock - type ETFs having a relatively high overall return rate and cross - border ETFs performing the worst [6][31] - Two ETF rotation strategies were introduced, and both strategies had certain cumulative excess returns since 2023 [8] - Investment suggestions were made for January 2026, recommending specific industries and corresponding ETFs for different strategies [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fund Market Tracking - **Market Overview**: As of December 31, 2025, there were 13,617 funds in the market, an increase of 142 from the end of the previous month. The total net asset value of funds was 36.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 315.115 billion yuan. Stock - type funds increased the most in number and scale in December [11][15] - **Fund Performance**: From December 1 to 31, 2025, the growth fund index, balance fund index, and value fund index had returns of 3.69%, 2.71%, and 1.14% respectively. The growth - type fund outperformed the value - type fund. The median return of all funds in December was 0.53%, and the proportion of funds with positive returns was 79.33%. Yongying High - end Equipment Selection A had the highest increase in December, and Yongying Technology Selection A had the highest increase since the beginning of the year [17][22] 3.2 ETF Market Tracking - **ETF Market Composition**: As of December 31, 2025, there were 1,401 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, an increase of 32 from the previous period. The total asset management scale was 6.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 329.581 billion yuan, and the total share was 3.37 trillion shares, an increase of 132.247 billion shares [24] - **ETF New Products**: In December 2025, 18 ETFs were newly listed, including 5 science - innovation and entrepreneurship artificial intelligence ETFs and 13 other stock - type ETFs. 32 ETFs were newly established, with a total issuance scale of 12.536 billion yuan [26] - **ETF Product Classification Performance**: In December, stock - type ETFs had a relatively high overall return rate with a median return of 3.34%, while cross - border ETFs had the worst performance with a median return of - 3.50%. Stock - type ETFs also had the highest internal deviation in December [31] 3.3 ETF Strategy Tracking - **Based on Main Funds' Industry ETF Rotation**: The strategy focused on the banking, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemical industries in December 2025. In December 2025, the cumulative return of the strategy was - 1.70%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 index was - 3.98%. Since 2023, the cumulative return of the strategy was 48.47%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 index was 28.88% [8] - **PB - ROE Framework - based Industry ETF Rotation**: The strategy focused on the automobile, beauty care, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries in December 2025. In December 2025, the cumulative return of the strategy was - 1.23%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 index was - 3.51%. Since 2023, the cumulative return of the strategy was 25.47%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 index was 5.89% [8] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - For the industry preferences of main funds, in January 2026, the non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and steel industries were favored, and the corresponding ETFs were their industry ETFs [9] - According to the industry PB - ROE situation and supplementary indicators, the PB - ROE framework - based ETF rotation strategy recommended paying attention to the communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and transportation industries in January, and the corresponding ETFs were their industry ETFs [9]