相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ上涨 1.53%，医药板块延续反弹态势 1. 《两会<政府工作报告>提出 医药发展新目标》 20250305 2. 《关注中药板块估值修复》 20250312 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 证券研究报告 2025 年 04 月 09 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 关税影响下，关注以内需为主的中药板块 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 沪深300_累计 中药_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 5 | -1 | -16 | | 绝对收益 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：(8621) 50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 上周（2025.03.31-2025.04.06）医药生物报收 7567.13 点，上涨 1.2% ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. is expected to have a limited direct impact on China's chemical exports, as the proportion of chemical products exported to the U.S. has already decreased significantly since 2018, now accounting for approximately 10.6% of total chemical exports [6][9] - The tariffs may indirectly affect the demand for chemical products through downstream manufacturing processes, but certain chemical products have been exempted from the tariffs, including fluorite, sucralose, vitamins, potassium fertilizers, and polytetrafluoroethylene, which are expected to have low self-sufficiency rates in the U.S. [6][7] - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs may impact the profitability and operating rates of downstream chemical products that rely heavily on imported ethane and propane [6][9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return of the industry has been -1.6% over 1 month, 2.0% over 3 months, and -9.2% over 12 months, while the absolute return has been -10.6% over 1 month, -3.5% over 3 months, and -8.6% over 12 months [3] Market Dynamics - The domestic chemical industry is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution of high-end products due to the trade tensions, with a focus on products like POE [7] - There is an expectation of more proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand in response to the tariff impacts, particularly benefiting sectors like refrigerants and civil explosives [7][9]

Macro Strategy - As of March 31, 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 32,406.65 billion USD, an increase of 134.41 billion USD month-on-month, while gold reserves rose by 90,000 ounces, marking five consecutive months of increase [2][3] - Central Huijin Investment announced its continued support for the development of China's capital market, having increased its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and plans to continue doing so to maintain market stability [2] Debt Market Commentary - Under the influence of US tariff policies, bond market yields have declined across the board, with a total issuance of 149 credit bonds amounting to approximately 1,783.55 billion CNY, while total repayments reached about 1,919.48 billion CNY, resulting in a net financing amount of approximately -135.94 billion CNY [3][4] - The secondary market saw a total transaction volume of 5,631.22 billion CNY, with significant trading concentrated in corporate bonds and medium-term notes [5] - Three credit bonds defaulted or were extended, with overdue principal amounting to 1.32 billion CNY and overdue interest of 86.41 million CNY [6] Investment Recommendations - The debt market is expected to benefit from a shift in focus from liquidity to fundamentals, with a favorable outlook for credit bonds due to anticipated monetary policy easing [7] - It is suggested to extend duration for yield enhancement in investment strategies, while trading strategies should consider risk preferences [7] Industry Company - Food and Beverage - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion CNY and a net profit of 4.345 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.30% in revenue but a growth of 1.81% in net profit [20][21] - The company’s beer sales volume decreased by 5.86% to 7.538 million kiloliters, with a focus on high-end products, which accounted for 72.67% of the main brand sales [21][22] - The average price per ton increased by 0.59% to 4,263.5 CNY, while the cost per ton decreased by 1.98% to 2,548.4 CNY, leading to an improved gross margin of 40.11% [22] - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 33.581 billion CNY, 34.847 billion CNY, and 35.955 billion CNY for 2025-2027, alongside net profits of 5.172 billion CNY, 5.729 billion CNY, and 6.209 billion CNY [23] Industry Company - Banking - In 2024, 23 banks reported a 0.6% decline in revenue but a 1.8% increase in net profit, indicating improved performance compared to previous quarters [25][26] - The net interest margin for listed banks showed a downward trend, with a notable decline in the margins of joint-stock banks [26][27] - The overall asset quality of listed banks remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.17% at the end of 2024, slightly improved from previous periods [26] - The outlook for 2025 suggests potential credit growth slowdowns due to external economic pressures, but policies aimed at boosting domestic demand may alleviate some of the credit demand shortfalls [27][28]

Macro Strategy and North Exchange - In March, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, indicating a continued recovery in economic activity [4] - The production index and new orders index were 52.6% and 51.8%, respectively, showing acceleration in expansion [4] - Small and medium-sized enterprises showed improvement, with PMI for small enterprises rising to 49.9% and for medium enterprises to 49.6% [4] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw PMIs of 52.0% and 52.3%, respectively, indicating stable growth [5] - The market expectation index for production and operation activities was 53.8%, reflecting optimism among manufacturing enterprises [6] - The U.S. announced a 34% tariff on Chinese imports, escalating trade tensions [6] Stock Market Overview - From March 31 to April 6, 2025, major A-share indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.28% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.28% [7] - The overall trading volume decreased, influenced by the downturn in overseas equity markets and the implementation of tariffs [7][8] - The A-share market is expected to operate in a "slow bull" manner in 2025, driven by government policies aimed at economic growth [16] Industry and Company Analysis Electronics Industry - The company reported a revenue growth of 22.99% for 2024, reaching 4.772 billion yuan [17] - The net profit for 2024 was 1.039 billion yuan, a 1.48% increase year-on-year [17] - The company plans to expand into the global renewable energy market, targeting sectors like electric vehicles and smart grids for stable revenue growth in 2025 [19] - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.37%, down 5.21 percentage points due to increased competition [18] - The company has shown excellent cost control, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios over the past five years [18] ETF Market Overview - As of March 31, 2025, there were 1,123 ETFs in the market, with a total asset management scale of 3.80 trillion yuan [22] - The stock-type ETFs accounted for 893 of these, with a total value of 2.821 trillion yuan [22] - The commodity-type ETFs showed the highest median return of 8.68% in March, while stock-type ETFs had a median return of -0.42% [24] - The PB-ROE framework identified high PB and high ROE industries as key focus areas for investment strategies [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][23] Core Insights - In March, new home sales showed significant differentiation, while second-hand home sales continued to grow strongly. The total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of positive growth. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase of 18%, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 2.2% and 4.9%, respectively [4][5][9] - The absolute value of new home sales in March was only higher than the same period in 2024, indicating a weak recovery in new home demand, with significant differentiation among cities. First-tier cities had sales significantly higher than in 2020, 2022, and 2024, while second and third-tier cities remained weak, with March sales at the lowest level since 2020. In contrast, second-hand home sales in 13 monitored cities increased by 33% year-on-year in the first three months, with a 37% increase in March alone [5][9] - The inventory level of new homes continues to decline, but the sales slowdown has led to a slight increase in the de-stocking cycle. As of the end of March, the available area of commercial housing in the top ten cities was 77.67 million square meters, down 9.1% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with a de-stocking cycle of 23.4 months, an increase of about 4 months from the previous month [17][20] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 810.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, while the sales area was 447.5 million square meters, down 8%. In March alone, the sales amount and area were 353.9 billion yuan and 209.7 million square meters, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.5% and 2.7% [6][20] - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 30, 50, and 100 companies in the first three months were 23.1 billion yuan (up 4.4% year-on-year), 6 billion yuan (down 20.6%), 3.7 billion yuan (down 15.4%), and 1.5 billion yuan (down 7%) [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while second-hand home transactions remain robust, the recovery in new home demand is uneven, with first-tier cities showing resilience and second and third-tier cities lagging. It is anticipated that restrictive policies will continue to ease, and progress in the acquisition of existing homes and land will accelerate, improving the market supply-demand structure. The industry maintains a "Buy" rating, with recommendations to focus on leading real estate companies with land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserves, such as Poly Developments, and leading intermediary agencies benefiting from active second-hand home transactions, such as I Love My Home [7][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the robotics industry [1] Core Insights - The key focus is on three sub-segments of humanoid robot sensors: force perception, touch perception, and vision perception. Sensors are critical components for enhancing the perception capabilities of humanoid robots, with a significant cost share in the overall bill of materials (BOM) [3][7] - The BOM cost of Tesla's humanoid robot is approximately $49,719, with sensors accounting for about 33.4% of the total component value [18][20] - The report anticipates rapid growth in the market for six-dimensional force sensors, projecting shipments to reach 1.1954 million units and a market size of 14.331 billion yuan by 2030 [4][56] Summary by Sections 1. Sensors as Core Components - Sensors are essential for humanoid robots to interact with their environment, enabling capabilities such as human-machine interaction, environmental perception, and motion control [14] - The BOM cost analysis indicates that sensors represent a significant portion of the total cost, highlighting their importance in the overall design and functionality of humanoid robots [18][20] 2. Force Control - Force control is crucial for the movement of robots, with force sensors being the core components. The report emphasizes the importance of six-dimensional force sensors for intelligent control in humanoid robots [22][26] - The market for six-dimensional force sensors is expected to grow rapidly, driven by advancements in technology and increased demand from humanoid robot applications [52][56] 3. Touch Perception - Electronic skin technology is highlighted as a key innovation for providing humanoid robots with tactile sensitivity, simulating human touch perception through flexible electronic devices [62][63] - The global market for flexible tactile sensors is currently dominated by foreign brands, but domestic companies are gradually gaining competitiveness [5][7] 4. Vision Perception - 3D vision sensors are identified as the future mainstream solution for humanoid robots, with a projected market size of $15 billion by 2025. The report notes that while foreign manufacturers currently lead the market, domestic firms are making significant progress [6][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Solid-state batteries offer high energy density and safety advantages, with solid electrolytes replacing liquid ones, including semi-solid and all-solid batteries. Semi-solid batteries are entering the industrialization phase, while all-solid batteries are still in the R&D stage, expected to gradually achieve mass production [4][5] - Key materials for solid-state batteries include solid electrolytes, electrode materials, and packaging technology. The development of solid electrolytes that balance high ionic conductivity, stability, and processability is still underway. The future direction for positive electrode materials is shifting towards high nickel and lithium-rich manganese-based materials [5][6] - Global policies are promoting the industrialization of solid-state batteries, with different technological paths in various countries. Semi-solid batteries are expected to commercialize first, while all-solid batteries may begin demonstration applications around 2027 and enter commercial use after 2030 [6][7] - The application of solid-state batteries is expected to expand from specialized scenarios to general scenarios, with an overall penetration rate projected to reach 10% in 2023. The global shipment of solid-state batteries is expected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 614.1 GWh by 2030 [7][8] - The solid-state battery market in China is projected to grow from 1 billion yuan in 2023 to 20 billion yuan by 2030 [8] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with early advantages in new positive electrode materials, core solid electrolyte technologies, strategic partnerships with companies planning mass production of solid-state batteries, and upstream companies with resources in zirconium, lanthanum, and titanium [9] Summary by Sections 1. Solid-State Battery Advantages - Solid-state batteries replace liquid electrolytes with solid ones, providing significant performance and safety advantages [16] - They can achieve higher energy densities, with theoretical limits reaching 700 Wh/kg, compared to the practical limits of liquid batteries around 230 Wh/kg [20] 2. Industry Technology Development and Industrialization - The solid-state battery industry chain includes upstream mineral resources, midstream equipment, materials, and manufacturing, and downstream applications [38] - The main components of solid-state batteries include solid electrolytes, which have seen increased attention in recent years, particularly oxides, sulfides, and polymers [44] 3. Market Expansion and Space - Solid-state batteries are expected to meet the performance demands of various emerging industries, with significant application expansion potential [9] - The market for solid-state batteries is anticipated to grow substantially, driven by the increasing demand for high-performance batteries in electric vehicles and energy storage [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in inhalation formulations, driving a new cycle of innovation through a dual engine of innovative drugs and high-barrier complex formulations. It has successfully transitioned over 30 years, focusing on the respiratory sector and advancing multiple innovative pipelines [4][18]. - The respiratory disease market presents significant clinical demand, particularly for asthma and COPD, which have high prevalence rates and low treatment rates. The industry is poised for innovation with new mechanisms and targets being approved [5][41]. - The company's new product combinations and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs are expected to drive new growth, with a recovery in sales following the impact of centralized procurement [6][30]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a diversified product matrix across various pharmaceutical sectors, including chemical drugs, biological drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, diagnostic reagents, and health products, ensuring steady performance [20][22]. Market Opportunities - The respiratory disease market is characterized by unmet clinical needs, with asthma and COPD being major contributors to global mortality. The company is well-positioned to address these needs with its innovative drug pipeline [41][43]. Innovation and Growth - The company has established a high-barrier complex formulation technology platform, focusing on inhalation formulations. It has successfully launched several products, including the first inhalation antibiotic in China, and is advancing its innovative drug pipeline [4][6][57]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a recovery trajectory, with expected revenue growth rates of -5.6%, 4.8%, and 7.1%, respectively, alongside net profit growth rates of -1.6%, 7.5%, and 9.6% [7][9]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a net profit of 14.2 billion, 15.3 billion, and 16.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.78, 0.83, and 0.92 yuan [7][9].

Industry Overview - The domestic pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 1.41% last week, ranking 20th among all primary industry sectors, outperforming the Wind A-share index by 0.69 percentage points [2] - Among the 13 tertiary industries, three sectors showed an increase, with the medical research outsourcing (CXO) and biopharmaceuticals leading the gains [2] - The overall valuation level for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector as of March 21 was a PE-TTM of 26.74X and a PB of 2.52X, both near the negative one standard deviation [2] Recent Developments - A global strategic cooperation agreement was signed between domestic biotech company Heptares and AstraZeneca on March 21, focusing on the development of next-generation multi-specific antibodies for various diseases [5] - The agreement includes upfront payments totaling $175 million and potential additional payments of up to $4.4 billion, indicating a significant international collaboration and recognition of domestic innovation capabilities [5] - The domestic innovative drug sector is expected to see continued international integration and high-quality development, supported by evolving payment mechanisms and policy initiatives [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that 2025 may be a pivotal year for the implementation of policies supporting innovative drugs, including the introduction of the first version of the Class B medical insurance catalog [6] - It is recommended to focus on two main investment themes: innovation-driven opportunities and recovery-driven opportunities, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [7] - Companies such as Huadong Medicine and Aosaikang are recommended for their strong technical platforms and product advantages, while Jianyou Co., China Resources Sanjiu, and Weixin Kang are suggested for their recovery potential [7] Financial Performance - The medical insurance fund's total income for 2024 is projected to be 3.48 trillion yuan, with total expenditures of 2.97 trillion yuan, indicating a stable operation of the fund [13][22] - The report highlights that the medical insurance fund's income and expenditure growth rates are stabilizing, which is beneficial for the long-term sustainability of the fund [22] Market Trends - The medical consumables sector saw a decline of 1.6% last week, reflecting a broader trend of volatility in the market [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of high-value consumables companies as they navigate the impacts of national procurement policies [17] - Long-term prospects for the medical consumables industry are positive, with a focus on high-end implantable and electrophysiological consumables [17]

Group 1: Economic Overview - CPI has been below 1% for 24 consecutive months, while PPI has shown negative growth for 29 months, indicating persistent low demand[4] - In February 2025, CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 3.3%[29] - The government plans to issue 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption, doubling the subsidy scale from 2024[4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year in January-February 2025, with new construction down 29.6%[84] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market, with policies focusing on "ensuring project completion" and "maintaining sales" as priorities[8] - Sales in second-tier cities have shown the highest rebound, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market[88] Group 3: Manufacturing and Innovation - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.0% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, continuing the strong performance from 2024[9] - The government emphasizes the integration of technological innovation and industrial development, supporting the growth of tech-driven enterprises[9] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be more proactive, with a historical high in fiscal spending planned[10] - A potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is expected in the second quarter of 2025[10] Group 5: Consumer Market Insights - The consumer market is experiencing structural differentiation, with home appliance consumption growing by 39.3% year-on-year due to subsidy policies[58] - Urban retail sales increased by 3.8% year-on-year in January-February 2025, the highest since June 2024[63]