Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) as part of its initial coverage [4] Core Insights - WuXi Biologics is a global leader in the biopharmaceutical CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector, leveraging an integrated platform to drive growth [1][3] - The company has established a comprehensive CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) model, providing end-to-end services from drug discovery to commercial production, which enhances customer retention and operational stability [1][3] - The non-COVID business has shown strong growth, with a 13.1% year-on-year increase in 2024, indicating a healthy business structure despite a slowdown in overall revenue growth [49] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - WuXi Biologics has developed a one-stop CRDMO service platform, serving over 600 global clients, including the top 20 multinational pharmaceutical companies, with a core employee retention rate of 95.8% [1][21][20] - The company has a global manufacturing network with 9 production bases and 7 development centers across China, Ireland, Germany, and Singapore, supporting its full industry chain service capabilities [1][27] 2. Market Growth and Opportunities - The global biopharmaceutical market is expanding, with China expected to capture a 22.2% share by 2030, driven by the rise of biopharmaceuticals and CDMO services [3][50][53] - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and bispecific antibodies are emerging therapies that are expected to significantly benefit WuXi Biologics as the CDMO market continues to grow [3][54] 3. Financial Performance - WuXi Biologics has demonstrated robust growth, with a revenue CAGR of 36.0% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 18.68 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in growth rate [6][29] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is projected to be 3.36 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 41.0% [10][45] 4. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 21.47 billion yuan, 23.65 billion yuan, and 25.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.48 billion yuan, 4.99 billion yuan, and 5.36 billion yuan [8][10] - The company is expected to benefit from a strong order backlog, with approximately 18.5 billion USD in unfulfilled orders as of December 31, 2024, indicating a solid foundation for future revenue growth [6][28] 5. Competitive Positioning - WuXi Biologics is positioned favorably compared to international peers, with a current PE ratio of 35.2X, significantly lower than that of global leaders like Lonza and Samsung Biologics [7][72] - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery as the company continues to expand its market share and capitalize on the growing demand for biopharmaceutical services [66][70]

Macro Information and Commentary - Recent policies from various government departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, are accelerating the deployment of "Artificial Intelligence+" across multiple sectors, focusing on high-quality data supply and new digital infrastructure [2] - In August, new housing supply decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with first-tier cities facing significant pressure, except for Guangzhou, which saw growth. Over 60% of second-tier cities experienced a decline, while third and fourth-tier cities remained at low supply levels [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to issue a growth stabilization plan for industries such as machinery, automotive, and electric equipment, aiming to enhance quality supply capabilities and optimize the industry development environment [2] Industry and Company Analysis Innovative Drug Industry - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from major domestic pharmaceutical companies securing significant overseas licensing deals, indicating a continuation of the upward trend in this market. The industry is at a pivotal point where innovation results are beginning to translate into financial performance [4][5] - The focus for the market is currently on mid-year performance reports and the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory negotiations. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal changes in the value of research pipelines and to increase the weight of commercial value realization factors [4] Key Developments - On July 28, 2025, Heng Rui Medicine announced a collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) regarding the PDE3/4 inhibitor HRS-9821, with an upfront payment of $500 million and potential total payments of approximately $12 billion [5] - On July 30, 2025, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal for the oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist SYH2086, with a total transaction value potentially reaching $2.075 billion [5] Investment Recommendations - The innovative drug industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven growth, presenting dual opportunities for performance and valuation recovery [6] - The first year of payment policy implementation is anticipated to expand the market size for innovative drugs, with ongoing support policies expected to enhance the overall industry landscape [6] - Two main investment lines are recommended: 1. Pharma companies transitioning to innovation, with strong performance resilience and a focus on companies like Huadong Medicine, Aosaikang, and Health元 [6] 2. Biotech companies with validated research platforms and potential for overseas product registrations [7] Long-term Outlook - The innovative drug sector is moving towards a high-quality development phase characterized by research upgrades and international integration, with traditional Pharma companies gradually clearing out existing business lines [7]

Group 1: Economic Transformation - China's economic development is heavily reliant on population dividends, with a significant amount of previously underutilized labor being mobilized post-reform, leading to substantial productivity gains[2] - The traditional mindset of prioritizing investment over consumption has resulted in production surplus and insufficient consumption, necessitating a shift towards demand-side reforms to stimulate domestic consumption[2][22] Group 2: Labor Value and Distribution - Labor value is crucial for ensuring fair distribution and promoting consumption, with initial distribution being the most fundamental aspect influenced by market forces[3][28] - The current labor market dynamics indicate a need to stabilize and enhance labor value, which is determined by the balance of power between labor and capital, influenced by supply and demand in the labor market[3][10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Labor demand is influenced by total demand, which includes both domestic and foreign components, with domestic demand being significantly affected by income distribution[4][34] - The reduction in labor supply is a prevailing trend, with a shrinking labor population and extended working hours contributing to a challenging employment landscape[6][43] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Recent policies, such as the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," aim to address the root causes of low consumption, emphasizing income growth and service sector development to enhance employment and consumption[9][65] - There is a pressing need for labor protection laws to mitigate excessive working hours, which exacerbate employment pressures and hinder job creation[8][64]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies based on both long-term and short-term perspectives, utilizing historical data to optimize investment portfolios [21][22][23]. Asset Performance Overview - Equity assets showed strong performance, with the CSI 300 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index rising by 3.5% and 2.4% respectively over the past month, while the Indian Sensex 30 Index declined by 2.9% [7][6]. - In the bond market, government bond yields increased, leading to a 0.2% decline in the government bond index, while corporate bond indices remained stable due to narrowing credit spreads [12][11]. - Commodity assets experienced a 3.8% increase in the South China Commodity Index in July, although gold prices fluctuated, ending the month nearly flat [17][16]. Asset Allocation Strategies - The report suggests a debt-oriented asset allocation strategy comprising 10% Asia-Pacific emerging market stocks, 80% corporate bonds, and 10% gold [28]. - A mixed asset allocation strategy is recommended, including 23% Nasdaq 100 Index, 7% CSI 300 Index, 40% corporate bonds, and 30% commodities [28]. Strategy Performance Tracking - From April 2015 to July 2025, the mean-variance model strategy achieved an annualized return of 6.81% with a maximum drawdown of 3.6% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.76 [25]. - The strategy's performance from January 2025 to July 2025 yielded a cumulative return of 1.97%, with a notable return of -0.15% in July due to insufficient bond contributions and declines in the Indian market index [25][27]. Model Utilization - The report employs a mean-variance model for long-term asset allocation, which outperforms constant mix strategies, and integrates the Black-Litterman model to enhance return stability by combining historical and recent performance data [22][23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The bank wealth management market experienced steady growth in the first half of 2025, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.53%. The scale of wealth management companies reached 27.48 trillion yuan, up 12.98% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the migration of funds due to low deposit interest rates, indicating potential for continued stable expansion [6][14] - The structure of wealth management products shows that fixed-income products account for 97.20% of the total scale, with a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points since the beginning of the year. This decline is expected to be related to bond market volatility and improved conditions in the equity market [6][16] - In terms of asset allocation, there has been an increase in cash and deposit assets as well as public funds, while allocations to bonds and interbank certificates of deposit have decreased. Specifically, the allocation ratios for bonds, interbank certificates, and equity assets have decreased by 1.7%, 0.6%, and 0.5% to 41.8%, 13.8%, and 2.4%, respectively [6][20] Wealth Management Product Yield - The yield of cash management wealth management products has continued to decline, with a 7-day annualized yield of 1.44% in July, down 6 basis points from the previous month and 40 basis points from December of the previous year. In comparison, the yield of money market funds was 1.25%, down 9 basis points month-on-month and 31 basis points year-on-year [8][24] - The average annualized yield for short-term pure fixed-income wealth management products was 2.15%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous month, while the yields for medium-term and long-term products decreased [9][27] - The overall break-even rate for fixed-income + wealth management products increased to approximately 2.4% in July, indicating a rise from the previous month, although the number of deeply discounted products remains low [10][35] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 13.49% and an absolute return of 25.64%, indicating strong performance compared to the market benchmark [5]

Financial Engineering - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations from July 28 to August 1, closing at 3559.95 with a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous week [2] - The Shenzhen Composite Index also saw a decline, with a drop of 1.58% and a closing value of 10991.32, alongside reduced trading volume [2] ETF Performance - The 50ETF opened at 2.917 and closed at 2.876, reflecting a decrease of 0.040 or 1.37%, with a trading volume of 10.865 billion [3] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF opened at 4.203 and closed at 4.133, down by 0.070 or 1.67%, with a trading volume of 17.173 billion [3] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF opened at 6.365 and closed at 6.287, showing a decrease of 0.078 or 1.23%, with a trading volume of 6.109 billion [3] Options Market - From July 28 to August 1, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while total open interest increased, with a PCR of 0.84, down 0.14 from the previous week [4] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF options also saw a decrease in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 0.89, down 0.14 [4] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF options experienced a reduction in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 1.07, up 0.06 [4] Volatility Analysis - Short-term volatility has slightly increased, with monthly volatility trending upwards, while implied volatility has been declining throughout the week [5] - The implied volatility levels for the 50ETF and 300ETF have shown a downward trend, indicating increased market expectations for future volatility [5] Investment Recommendations - The market has shown varying degrees of decline, with all three options benchmarks dropping over 1%, and the PCR ratios indicating a decrease for the 50ETF and 300ETF, while the put option ratio for the 500ETF has risen [6] - Given the current market conditions and the shift in implied volatility curves, a cautious stance is recommended for small-cap growth stocks, while larger blue-chip stocks like the 50ETF and 300ETF may be more favorable [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has released regulatory guidelines for stablecoin issuers, with the first license applications due by the end of September 2025 [4][5]. - The market is experiencing high trading volumes, with July IPO financing scale showing a year-on-year increase [7][12]. - The securities sector is expected to attract incremental capital allocation due to active market trading and ongoing performance recovery [8][15]. Summary by Sections Policy Tracking - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the implementation of a stablecoin issuer regulatory framework starting August 1, 2025, with four related documents published [4][10]. - The first batch of stablecoin licenses is anticipated to be approved in August, although the process is currently ongoing [5][10]. - Issuers must have real application scenarios, and only a limited number of licenses will be granted initially [5][10]. Industry Weekly Data Brokerage Business - The average daily stock trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17,870 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.8% week-on-week [7][12]. - New fund issuance in July saw significant increases in stock and mixed funds, with stock funds up 558% year-on-year [7][12]. Investment Banking Business - In July, 33 companies engaged in equity financing, raising a total of 662 billion yuan, with IPOs accounting for 242 billion yuan, marking a 444% year-on-year increase [7][12]. - Cumulatively, the IPO scale from January to July increased by 66.6% year-on-year [7][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokerages with strong beta characteristics, such as Zhinan Compass, amid a backdrop of active market trading [8][15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [10] Core Viewpoints - Recent refrigerant prices are running at a high level, and in the medium to long term, supply constraints due to quota policies are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance for refrigerants, driven by factors such as improved living standards and global warming [8][27] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, and Yonghe Co., Ltd. as potential investment opportunities [8][27] Industry Overview - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the basic chemical industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.46%, ranking 11th among all Shenwan first-level industries [6][11] - The top five stocks with the highest weekly gains in the basic chemical industry were: Shangwei New Materials, Songji Co., Ltd., Keta Bio, *ST Yatai, and Tiantie Technology; while the top five stocks with the highest weekly losses were: Poly United, Weike Technology, Gaozheng Min Explosion, Fengmao Co., Ltd., and Yahua Group [6][11] Sub-industry - Fluorine Chemicals - As of August 1, 2025, the price of 97% wet fluorite was 3162 RMB/ton, down 1.2% compared to one month ago and one week ago [12] - The supply of fluorite is tightening due to extreme weather affecting mining operations, while manufacturers are keen to raise prices due to high production costs [12] - The overall demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong despite a seasonal decline in air conditioning production, supported by high temperatures and supply constraints [14]

证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 3 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 创新药行业周报 国内医药龙头公司在研创新管线价值开启密集兑现 ——创新药行业周报（7.28-8.3） 相关研究： 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张德燕 证书编号：S0500521120003 Tel：(8621) 50295326 Email：zhangdy @xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 市场分析与展望 ❑ 投资建议 2025 年国内创新药产业有望迎来拐点，产业运行趋势由资本驱动转向盈 利驱动，板块有望迎来业绩与估值双重修复投资机会。 基本面边际变化持续支撑二级市场回暖。 1、盈利元年：创新产品陆续商业化，头部创新药企业开启盈利周期。 | 1.《国内创新药资产持续得到国内 | | --- | | 外产业资本认可，产业拐点来临》 | | 2025.7.20 | | 2.《COPD落地重磅交易，关注呼吸 | | 赛道创新驱动机遇》 2025.7.12 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 10.2 17.0 34.1 绝对收益 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly market declined to varying degrees, with all three option underlying assets dropping by over 1%. The changes in the position PCR ratios showed divergence, with the position PCR of 50ETF and 300ETF continuing to fall, while the put contract position ratio of 500ETF increased. Considering the changes in the implied volatility curve structure, with the curve of 500ETF shifting to the left, indicating some cautious sentiment, it is believed that the current market risk preference level has decreased, and a cautious attitude towards small-cap growth stocks is recommended. This is relatively favorable for large-cap blue-chip underlying assets such as 50ETF and 300ETF [5][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review 3.1.1 Underlying Asset Market - From July 28 to August 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated during the week, closing at 3559.95, with lower trading volume compared to the previous week. The Shenzhen Component Index fluctuated and declined during the week, with a decline of 1.58% compared to the previous week, closing at 10991.32, and lower trading volume compared to the previous week [2][8]. - 50ETF opened at 2.917 at the beginning of the week and closed at 2.876 at the end of the week, down 0.040 or 1.37% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 10.865 billion yuan. Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF opened at 4.203 at the beginning of the week and closed at 4.133 at the end of the week, down 0.070 or 1.67% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 17.173 billion yuan. Southern CSI 500ETF opened at 6.365 at the beginning of the week and closed at 6.287 at the end of the week, down 0.078 or 1.23% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 6.109 billion yuan [3][8]. 3.1.2 Futures Index Market - From July 28 to August 1, all contracts of the stock index futures IH closed down. Among them, contract IH2508 declined by -1.42%. All contracts of the stock index futures IF closed down. Among them, contract IF2508 declined by -1.93%. All contracts of the stock index futures IC closed down. Among them, contract IC2508 declined by -1.43% [9]. 3.2 Option Market Review 3.2.1 Trading and Position Holding Situation - From July 28 to August 1, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options for the week was 1,249,242 contracts, a decrease of 123,739 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,443,444 contracts, an increase of 202,752 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 0.84, a decrease of 0.14 from the end of the previous week [13]. - The average daily trading volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF options for the week was 1,165,780 contracts, a decrease of 219,482 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,284,104 contracts, an increase of 107,929 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 0.89, a decrease of 0.14 from the end of the previous week [15]. - The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total position increased. The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options for the week was 1,352,948 contracts, a decrease of 102,102 contracts from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The total position was 1,249,009 contracts, an increase of 165,492 contracts from the end of the previous week. The total position PCR was 1.07, an increase of 0.06 from the end of the previous week [19]. 3.2.2 Volatility Situation - **Historical Volatility**: As of August 1, the 5-day historical rolling volatility of 50ETF rose to 13.05%, near the 50th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 13.05%, 10.97%, 9.09%, and 9.07% respectively [22]. - The 5-day historical rolling volatility of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF rose to 14.26%, near the 50th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 14.26%, 12.76%, 10.26%, and 9.74% respectively [25]. - The 5-day historical rolling volatility of Southern CSI 500ETF rose to 12.99%, near the 25th percentile of the five-year historical level. Currently, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day historical volatilities are 12.99%, 13.83%, 11.63%, and 11.80% respectively [26]. - **Implied Volatility**: On August 1, the implied volatility near the at-the-money level decreased, and the overall implied volatility level declined. For 50ETF and 300ETF, the slopes on both sides of the curve increased, indicating an increased market expectation of future volatility. For 500ETF, the curve shifted to the left, showing some cautious sentiment [29]. - **Comparison of Historical Volatility and Implied Volatility Trends**: In terms of volatility, short-term volatility increased slightly, and monthly volatility followed suit. Implied volatility declined continuously during the week, and the volatility difference narrowed significantly. It is expected that historical volatility will continue to rise in the future, and the volatility difference will further narrow [36]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Given the market decline, the divergence in position PCR ratios, and the changes in the implied volatility curve structure, a cautious attitude towards small-cap growth stocks is recommended, and large-cap blue-chip underlying assets such as 50ETF and 300ETF are relatively favored [5][43].