Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [5][7][32]. Core Insights - The market remains active, supporting the recovery of brokerage performance, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio has fallen to a low range not seen in nearly a decade, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for investing in the brokerage sector [5][32]. - The brokerage index has a PB of 1.41x, currently at the 38th percentile over the past ten years, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][10]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the CSI 300 Index by 2.8%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.9% during the week of January 5-9, 2026. The non-bank financial index increased by 2.6%, ranking 21st out of 31 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.2 percentage points [2][10]. - The top five performing brokerages during this period were Huayin Securities (+16.1%), Huaan Securities (+7.1%), Huaxin Co. (+7%), Changjiang Securities (+6%), and Caida Securities (+4.8%). The five brokerages with the largest declines were CITIC Securities (-0.5%), Bank of China Securities (-0.9%), CITIC Construction Investment (-1.7%), Guolian Minsheng (-2.3%), and Industrial Securities (-2.4%) [2][10]. Industry Weekly Data Brokerage Business - The average daily stock trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surged to 28,287 billion yuan, a 34% increase week-on-week, nearing the high point of August 2025. In December 2025, the average daily trading volume was 18,645 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][17]. - The new fund issuance in December 2025 included 35.6 billion shares for equity funds (up 26% year-on-year), 13.3 billion shares for mixed funds (up 52% year-on-year), and 51.3 billion shares for bond funds (down 53% year-on-year) [3][21]. Investment Banking Business - In 2025, a total of 332 companies engaged in equity financing, raising 10,826 billion yuan, a 273% increase year-on-year. This included 116 IPOs raising 1,318 billion yuan (up 95.4% year-on-year) and 172 additional issuances raising 8,877 billion yuan (up 413% quarter-on-quarter) [4][22]. Capital Intermediary Business - As of January 9, 2026, the margin financing and securities lending balance reached 26,276 billion yuan, a 3.4% increase week-on-week, continuing to set new highs and accounting for 2.82% of the total market capitalization of A-shares [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and recommends considering Jiufang Zhitu Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to strong performance certainty amid active market trading [5][32].

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved a "good start" in the first week of 2026, with major indices showing significant upward movement: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and ChiNext Index by 3.89% [2][3][9] - The rise in A-shares is attributed to several factors, including proactive measures by the National Development and Reform Commission in the "two new" sectors, the positive trends in December's PMI, PPI, and CPI, and the recovery of previously adjusted technology sectors [3][13] - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the mid-November 2025 high indicates an early onset of the spring market, with expectations of a recovery in the upward trend seen in the second half of 2025 [3][13] Group 2 - Among the 31 first-level industries, most have seen gains since the beginning of 2026, with the top performers being comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media, which have increased by 14.55%, 13.63%, and 13.10% respectively [4][25] - In the second-level industries, aerospace equipment II and wind power equipment have led the gains with increases of 24.49% and 20.01% respectively, while state-owned large banks II and joint-stock banks II have seen declines of -2.94% and -1.92% [4][26] - The third-level industries show marketing agency and aerospace equipment III as the top gainers with increases of 26.63% and 24.49%, while state-owned large banks III and home textiles have the largest declines at -2.94% and -2.56% [4][28] Group 3 - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a slight improvement, with December's PPI showing a year-on-year decline of -1.90%, an improvement from November's -2.20%, and CPI at 0.80%, marking the third consecutive month in positive territory [5][29][30] - The macro short-cycle composite index is in a slightly turning state, suggesting that the current cycle's bottoming process is still under observation [5][30] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 is optimistic, as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a supportive policy environment for industrial upgrades and a favorable macroeconomic cycle expected to benefit upstream cyclical industries [6][7][32] - The report highlights continued interest in sectors related to "anti-involution," insurance, securities, aerospace, and strong technology sectors like artificial intelligence [7][32]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the classification of factors in commodity futures into six categories, including momentum, term structure, volume-price, positions, inventory, and volatility, forming a comprehensive analysis framework from market sentiment to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2]. - The empirical results indicate that the term structure factor, particularly the roll yield, is the most robust predictor of alpha returns, while the inventory factor shows significant potential as a contrarian indicator, especially in extreme supply-demand conditions [3][4]. - The report highlights the frequency dependence of factor effectiveness, suggesting that different strategies should be employed based on the time dimension, with specific combinations of factors recommended for monthly and weekly strategies [5]. Group 2: Factor Selection - For monthly strategies, effective combinations include roll yield, contrarian inventory levels, and liquidity factors, along with some effective momentum factors [5]. - Weekly strategies should focus on roll yield and contrarian inventory levels as core components, supplemented by skewness and volatility estimation factors [5]. - The report notes that all momentum factors become ineffective at the weekly frequency, underscoring the necessity of dynamically adjusting the factor library based on trading frequency [5].

策略研究 策略点评 A 股"开门红"预示春季行情正式展开 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 湘财证券研究所 ——1 月以来市场走势点评 核心要点： A 股市场实现"开门红" 据 Wind 数据，2026.01.05-2026.01.07 日，我们关注的 6 个 A 股指数连续上 涨，最终：上证指数上涨 2.95%（逼近 4100 点）、深证成指上涨 3.74%、 创业板指上涨 3.95%、沪深 300 上涨 3.17%、科创综指上涨 6.72%、万得全 A 上涨 3.80%。 2026 年以来，A 股主要指数走出"开门红"行情，原因有：一是发改委在"两 新"领域提前发力；二是 12 月 PMI 意外好转，给予市场 2026 年一季度经 济有望大幅好转的预期；三是此前调整的科技板块，与保险、证券等板块 形成上行共振。从上证指数近期走势来看，已突破 2025 年 11 月中旬高点， 形成上行突破态势，有望恢复 2025 年下半年的上行趋势。 行情展开的推力来自于：投资领域提前发力和 PMI 意外好转 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 首先，我国在投资领域提前发力，有望在一季度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The regulatory framework for information disclosure in the asset management sector has been further standardized, aiming to unify the disclosure rules for bank wealth management, trust, and insurance asset management products [4][12] - As of December 31, 2025, the scale of the wealth management market remains stable, with public fund size approximately 37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of about 14%, and the wealth management balance around 33 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 9% [6][12] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Dynamics - The new disclosure management measures require detailed reporting on performance benchmarks and investment asset types, enhancing transparency across the product lifecycle [5][12] - The wealth management market size has shown steady growth, with public funds and wealth management balances increasing [6][12] Wealth Management Product Yields - Cash management product yields have stabilized, with a 7-day annualized yield of 1.29% as of December 2025, unchanged from the previous value but down 54 basis points from the beginning of the year [7][16] - The average annualized yield for pure fixed-income products increased to 2.78%, while "fixed-income+" products saw an average yield of 2.44%, both reflecting upward trends due to market conditions [19][20] Wealth Management Product Break-even Rates - The break-even rate for pure fixed-income products rose to 3.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, while "fixed-income+" products had a break-even rate of approximately 3.7%, up by 1.2 percentage points [28]

Group 1: Financial Market Overview - As of December 31, 2025, there are 13,617 existing funds in the market, an increase of 142 funds compared to the previous month, with total net asset value reaching 36.32 trillion yuan, up by 315.15 billion yuan, indicating a continuous growth in the fund market [2] - In December 2025, the returns for value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.14%, 2.71%, and 3.69% respectively, with growth funds outperforming value funds [2] Group 2: ETF Market Analysis - By December 31, 2025, there are 1,401 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 32 from the previous period, with total assets under management at 6.02 trillion yuan, up by 329.58 billion yuan [3] - The median return for stock ETFs in December was 3.34%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return at -3.50%, and commodity ETFs returned a median of 2.58% [3] - Stock ETFs exhibited the highest internal deviation in December, while commodity and cross-border ETFs had internal deviations of 2.35% and 3.34% respectively, with bond ETFs having the lowest at 0.61% [3] Group 3: ETF Strategy Insights - The main industry focus for the leading fund's industry ETF rotation strategy in December was on banking, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals, with a cumulative return of -1.70% compared to the CSI 300 index's return of 2.28%, resulting in an underperformance of -3.98% [4] - For the year 2023, this strategy achieved a cumulative return of 48.47%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's return of 19.59% by 28.88% [4] - The PB-ROE framework's industry ETF rotation strategy focused on automotive, beauty care, and agriculture in December, with a cumulative return of -1.23% against the CSI 300 index's 2.28%, leading to an underperformance of -3.51% [4] - Year-to-date, this strategy yielded a cumulative return of 25.47%, slightly above the CSI 300 index's 19.59% return by 5.89% [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For January 2026, the report suggests a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and steel industries, recommending their respective industry ETFs [5] - The PB-ROE framework recommends focusing on the telecommunications, agriculture, and transportation sectors for January, along with their corresponding industry ETFs [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The traditional beverage industry is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards health-conscious consumption and personalized beverage options [6][12] - The beverage market is transitioning from a focus on sugary drinks to healthier, sugar-free alternatives, with sugar-free beverages projected to account for over 45% of the market by 2024 [7][15] - The industry is experiencing a dual-track development focusing on health and sensory enjoyment, with ready-to-drink beverages posing a significant challenge to traditional bottled drinks [17] Summary by Sections Current Situation - The past decade has seen a transformation in China's beverage industry, with evolving consumer demands and marketing strategies. Consumers now prioritize health, hydration, and personalized experiences over mere thirst quenching [6][12] Product Dimension - The beverage market's core trend is the pursuit of health, with sugar-free drinks becoming mainstream. In 2014, sugar-free beverages accounted for about 5%, which is expected to rise to over 45% by 2024. The market is now dominated by packaging water, tea drinks, and energy beverages [7][15][17] Channel and Marketing Dimension - The beverage industry is moving towards a multi-channel approach, emphasizing comprehensive channel coverage and online-offline integration. This shift presents opportunities for smaller brands to leverage social media and innovative marketing strategies to drive sales [8][20][21] Investment Recommendations - The food and beverage industry is characterized by resilience and is currently undervalued. The report suggests focusing on leading brands with strong channel advantages and emerging growth companies that align with health and experience trends. The industry is shifting from scale benefits to structural benefits, highlighting the importance of health and experience in future growth [9][22]

Industry and Company Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a significant boost in consumer demand, particularly during the New Year holiday, with a reported 5.9 billion people traveling across regions, leading to a 31% increase in ride-hailing demand on platforms like Didi [2][3] - The travel sector is seeing a shift towards experiential and emotional satisfaction, with a notable increase in bookings for unique experiences such as ice and snow tourism, which accounted for 40% of the top 20 domestic flight routes during the holiday [2][3] - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw a remarkable increase, with sales of 442,000 items, a 52.4% year-on-year growth, and total shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [4][5] - The number of tourists visiting Hainan surged, with flight and train bookings increasing by 49%, and hotel bookings for four-star accommodations rising by 61%, indicating a trend towards higher-quality lodging experiences [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong policy environment aimed at boosting consumption, with coordinated efforts from various government departments to stimulate market activity, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors [6][7] - There is a focus on structural opportunities within the retail sector, particularly in high-end domestic brands and the duty-free shopping market in Hainan, which are expected to benefit from ongoing consumer trends [7]

Industry Overview - The aerospace industry is witnessing significant developments with the IPO application of Blue Arrow Aerospace, marking a pivotal moment for commercial space ventures in China [2][3] - The expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's fifth listing standard to include commercial rocket companies signifies a broader acceptance of diverse industries in the capital market [2] Company Insights - Blue Arrow Aerospace, established in 2015, is a leading commercial aerospace company in China, focusing on the research, production, and launch services of liquid oxygen-methane engines and rockets [3] - The company successfully launched the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket on December 3, 2025, representing China's first attempt at first-stage recovery [3] - Despite currently operating at a loss, Blue Arrow Aerospace meets the requirements of the fifth listing standard, with an expected market valuation of no less than 4 billion [3] - The company aims to raise 7.5 billion for enhancing the production capacity and technology of reusable rockets, which is anticipated to significantly lower launch costs and foster the growth of downstream applications [4] Market Impact - The successful IPO of Blue Arrow Aerospace is expected to instill confidence in capital markets, providing a clear path for similar companies and attracting more venture capital into the sector [4] - The fundraising will focus on improving the capacity and technology of reusable rockets, which is likely to accelerate the maturation of China's commercial aerospace industry and enhance its international competitiveness [4] - The domestic aerospace sector is rapidly advancing, with significant technological breakthroughs and system developments, as evidenced by the successful maiden flights of the Long March 12 and Zhuque-3 rockets [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the equity market continued to recover and outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index significantly. The high - price convertible bonds were more elastic in the bull market, while the low - price convertible bonds were more resistant to decline during the market adjustment. The double - low strategy underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in the bull market [3][5]. - In 2026, the convertible bond valuation is expected to remain at a high level, and the pressure of individual bond call will increase. When selecting bonds, it is necessary to pay attention to industry rotation and individual bond selection, control risks and pursue elasticity [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - **Overall Market Performance**: In December, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.13%, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 3.25%. Throughout 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index rose 18.66% and 24.6% respectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.15 pct and the CSI 500 Index by 4 pct in December [3][15]. - **Performance by Price Classification**: In December, the Wind high - price convertible bond index rose 5.14%, while the medium - price and low - price convertible bond indexes rose 1.92% and 0.34% respectively. In 2025, the cumulative increases of the high - price, medium - price, and low - price convertible bond indexes were 28%, 16%, and 17% respectively [3][16]. - **Performance by Stock Size Classification**: In December, the Wind medium - cap and small - cap convertible bond indexes rose strongly by 2.52% and 3.23% respectively, while the large - cap convertible bond index fell 0.36%. In 2025, the small - cap convertible bond index rose 27%, leading the large - cap (+11%) and medium - cap (+19%) convertible bonds [19]. - **Performance by Credit Rating**: In December, high - rated convertible bonds continued to be weak. The AAA and AA+ convertible bond indexes rose - 0.01% and +1.87% respectively. In 2025, the AA - and below convertible bond index rose 28%, and the AA convertible bond index rose 25% [22]. - **Performance by Industry**: In December, only the energy (-2.05%) and financial (-0.39%) convertible bond indexes fell, while the corresponding underlying stock indexes rose 1.6% and 2.37% respectively. The largest increases in December were the materials (+3.66%) and optional consumption (+3.51%) convertible bond indexes. In 2025, the top three industries with the largest increases in the convertible bond indexes were materials (+26%), information technology (+25%), and industry (+24%), while the smallest were finance (+5%) and public utilities (+8%) [4][25]. - **Strategy Performance**: In 2025, the double - low strategy underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in the equity market bull market. The Wind double - low index rose 0.42% in December, while the high - price and low - premium index rose 5.78%. In 2025, they rose 30% and 12% respectively [5][32]. 2. Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 2.1 Double - Low Strategy Recommendations: Grasp Industry Rotation and Focus on Individual Bond Selection - **December Double - Low Portfolio Performance**: In December, the self - constructed double - low portfolio had a return of - 4.72%, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.13%. From June to the end of 2025, the cumulative return of the portfolio was 15.25%, underperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.06 pct, with a maximum drawdown of - 12.78% [6][35]. - **January 2026 Double - Low Portfolio Recommendation**: Optimistic about the "anti - involution", consumption, robot, and brokerage sectors in January. The number of portfolio targets is reduced to 5, with 3 new targets (Huairui Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond) and 2 original targets retained (China Southern Airlines Convertible Bond, Sanfang Convertible Bond). The average convertible bond price, conversion value, conversion premium rate, and double - low value of this portfolio are 122 yuan, 101 yuan, 23%, and 145 respectively [7][38]. 2.2 Industry Allocation Recommendations: Pay Attention to Call Risks, and Technology Remains the Main Line - In 2026, the equity market is still optimistic, which will keep convertible bond prices at a high level and increase the number of individual bonds facing call. It is recommended to choose high - growth technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robots, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" (chemical, photovoltaic) and consumption sectors with low valuations and expected demand recovery [9][42].