Financial Engineering - The report emphasizes a risk-based asset allocation strategy, contrasting it with traditional methods that focus on expected returns. This approach quantifies the investor's risk tolerance and sets a clear risk budget, aiming for a diversified risk contribution from various assets to achieve better risk-adjusted returns over the long term [2][3]. Risk Parity Model - The risk parity model is highlighted as a key strategy, optimizing asset contributions to total portfolio risk equally, thus avoiding the dominance of equities in traditional stock-bond portfolios. Backtesting results show an annualized return of 6.1% with a maximum drawdown of 3.4% and a Sharpe ratio of 3.62, indicating strong robustness [3][4]. Asset Allocation Insights - The report notes a persistent higher allocation to corporate bonds over government bonds since 2017, attributed to increased interest rate volatility in government bonds post "financial deleveraging" in China. This reflects the model's disciplined dynamic adjustment to real market risk structures [3][4]. Enhanced Strategy for Returns - A target volatility strategy is proposed, which dynamically adjusts portfolio leverage to maintain a preset volatility level. This strategy shows high sensitivity to financing costs of leveraged funds and is practical for investors with flexible capital. It aims for a higher Sharpe ratio by setting a target slightly above the full allocation portfolio volatility [5]. - Additionally, a risk budgeting strategy based on Sharpe squared is introduced, focusing on efficient risk allocation to assets with historically higher Sharpe ratios. While it achieves similar absolute returns to risk parity, it offers lower volatility and the highest Sharpe ratio among strategies, though it is dependent on the continuation of historical patterns [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Dingli [5] Core Views - The overseas market is expected to recover, particularly in North America, with stable growth in Europe and emerging markets, leading to sustained performance growth for the company [1][2][10] - The domestic market is projected to see a gradual narrowing of the decline in aerial platform sales in the short term, with long-term growth potential remaining [3][4][10] - The company focuses on the aerial platform sector, enhancing its core competitiveness through tax advantages and a strategic shift towards "smart platforms + robots" [8][9][10] Summary by Sections Overseas Market - North America is experiencing a recovery in demand driven by interest rate cuts and AI infrastructure investments, with a significant increase in construction spending expected [1][22] - The European market is stable, with potential demand growth if the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolves, leading to increased economic confidence and reconstruction efforts [2][42] - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, are expected to see rapid growth in aerial platform market size due to ongoing economic development and urbanization [2][51] Domestic Market - The short-term decline in aerial platform sales is expected to gradually narrow, with rental rates and prices stabilizing, indicating a potential bottoming out of the industry [3][61] - Compared to mature markets, China's aerial platform market still has significant growth potential, with low per capita ownership and building industry value coverage [4][66] - The rental market concentration is increasing, and the global market size is projected to exceed 200 billion by 2030 [4] Company Competitiveness - The company has a notable tax rate advantage in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S., which enhances its profitability and market share potential [8] - During the domestic market downturn, the company has performed well, with a significant revenue increase in its aerial platform business compared to competitors [9] - The company is transitioning to a "smart platform + robot" strategy, launching differentiated products that open new growth avenues [9][10]

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - As of December 12, 2025, there are 1,379 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total asset management scale of 57,806.33 billion yuan [2] - The breakdown of ETFs includes 1,073 equity ETFs (36,774.09 billion yuan), 53 bond ETFs (7,222.06 billion yuan), 27 money market ETFs (1,895.76 billion yuan), 17 commodity ETFs (2,436.83 billion yuan), 200 cross-border ETFs (9,430.76 billion yuan), and 9 unlisted ETFs (46.83 billion yuan) [2] Group 2: Recent ETF Listings and Performance - Four new equity ETFs were listed from December 8 to December 12, 2025, including two AI-focused ETFs and two others related to banking and technology [3] - The total issuance scale of newly established ETFs during the same period was 2.901 billion yuan [3] - The median weekly return for equity ETFs was 0.10%, with the communication equipment ETF showing the highest increase of 7.30%, while the coal and energy ETFs experienced declines of 3.98% [4] Group 3: PB-ROE Framework and Strategy - The PB-ROE framework categorizes industries into six quadrants, focusing on high PB and high ROE industries in the third quadrant and low PB and medium ROE industries in the fifth quadrant as key areas of interest [5] - Backtesting results from 2017 to February 2024 indicate that only the third and fifth quadrants achieved excess returns, with annualized excess returns of 4.27% and 1.55%, respectively [5] - A combined ETF rotation strategy based on the PB-ROE framework yielded an annualized return of 11.93% and an annualized excess return of 13.22% [6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the automotive, beauty care, and agriculture sectors, with corresponding ETFs for each industry [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically highlighting the white liquor sector [2]. Core Insights - The white liquor industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with total production declining since 2016 and leading companies facing price pressures [4][12]. - Despite the overall industry challenges, the case of Jinjiu demonstrates resilience, with expected growth exceeding 20% this year, attributed to differentiated products and effective channel strategies [5][24]. - The market environment is shifting towards more rational consumer behavior, with the Z generation prioritizing self-satisfaction and health-conscious consumption [31][32]. - Historical trends suggest that the current low valuations and widespread price discrepancies may present a significant investment opportunity in the white liquor sector [33]. Summary by Sections Current Status - The white liquor sector is in a "winter" phase, with production and prices under pressure due to overcapacity and competitive dynamics [4][12][15]. - Key factors contributing to the industry's struggles include a "prisoner's dilemma" among competitors, pressure from shareholders, local economic challenges, and a long-standing problematic channel ecosystem [21][22]. Jinjiu Case Study - Jinjiu has achieved notable sales growth through product differentiation, channel policies that favor long-term relationships, and a focus on younger consumers [5][24][29]. - The brand has successfully engaged with the Z generation by offering smaller, lower-alcohol products that align with current health trends and social media marketing [6][31]. Market Environment - The Z generation, representing a significant portion of the consumer base, is characterized by a focus on personal satisfaction and health, which aligns with Jinjiu's product offerings [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and the potential for growth in the food and beverage sector as market conditions improve [10][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: stable demand leaders, companies innovating in products and channels, and undervalued segments within the consumer goods sector [10][34]. - Specific companies to watch in the white liquor space include Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are positioned to benefit from potential market recovery [10][34].

Industry Overview - The retail trade sector experienced a slight decline of 0.21% last week, closing at 2305.32 points, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.13 percentage points [2] - The performance of various segments within the retail sector varied, with general retail increasing by 1.37% while trade II and professional chain segments saw declines of 3.48% and 1.49% respectively [2] - Notable performers included Dongbai Group (+46.2%) and Yonghui Supermarket (+27.2%), while companies like Huihong Group (-8.4%) and ST Huke (-8.4%) lagged behind [2] Financial Metrics - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector stands at 48.75X, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15 percentage points, with a one-year range of 31.27X to 51.44X [5] - The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is currently at 1.96X, with a one-year range between 1.52X and 2.1X [5] Economic Conference Insights - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference highlighted the retail sector's critical role in boosting domestic consumption and economic recovery, emphasizing the need for a modern retail system [6] - The conference underscored the shift from scale expansion to quality and service-driven growth, positioning retail as a key focus for fostering a complete domestic demand system [7] - Emphasis was placed on integrating online and offline channels, with successful companies in supply chain collaboration expected to gain favor [8] Consumer Trends and Recommendations - The consumer market is showing steady growth, with a notable increase in demand for upgraded products, particularly in categories like communication equipment and jewelry [9] - The rise of new and green consumption trends is creating new market growth points, with significant sales increases in smart health devices and organic foods [9] - The report suggests focusing on domestic beauty care brands, especially high-end domestic products, and industries related to emotional consumption as potential investment opportunities [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth through its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on expanding its core products while developing its two auxiliary business segments [18][21] - The core product, Wuling Capsule, has a clear mechanism of action, good efficacy, and high market recognition, which provides a multi-dimensional advantage [29][34] - The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing centralized procurement and market expansion strategies, which will drive revenue growth [11][49] Summary by Sections 1. Company Strategy and Performance - The company has adopted a "One Body, Two Wings" strategy to enhance its market presence in traditional Chinese medicine and modern healthcare [18] - From 2019 to 2024, the company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.12% in revenue and 81.76% in net profit [21] - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.71% [22] 2. Core Product Advantages - The Wuling series, including Wuling Capsule, Lingze Tablets, and Linglianhua Granules, consists of unique products with significant market potential [29] - Wuling Capsule has been included in the national essential drug list and has shown strong sales growth post-centralized procurement [40] - The company anticipates further growth from expanding its product matrix and enhancing its marketing strategies [11][49] 3. Auxiliary Business Growth - The company has established a strong foothold in the traditional Chinese medicine market, focusing on herbal pieces and formula granules [9][10] - The auxiliary businesses are expected to contribute significantly to overall revenue growth, leveraging the company's first-mover advantage [8][9] 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.922 billion yuan, 3.415 billion yuan, and 4.059 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 656 million yuan, 829 million yuan, and 992 million yuan [11][13] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's competitive advantages and growth potential in both core and auxiliary segments [11]

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 229 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 12 月 15 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录：郭怡萍 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、宏观策略 1.1 宏观点评（仇华） 宏观数据方面，11 月出口当月同比增速由负转正 据 Wind 数据，近期公布的重要宏观数据有：进出口、PPI、CPI 以及 M1、M2 等。进出 口方面，11 月出口当月同比由 10 月的-1.10%，转正为 5.9%，推动前 11 月累计增速由 10 月 的 5.3%，反弹至 5.4%。而中国对美国的出口继续保持下滑态势，11 月对美出口月度同比增 速为-18.87%，跌幅继续扩大。 而由 PMI、PPI 与 CPI 剪刀差、10 年期国债收益率拟合而成的宏观短周期综合指数，11 月继续小幅回落，但并没有跌破震荡上行趋势。 在 M0、M1、M2 方面，11 月的 M0、M2 总体趋势稳定，但 M1 在 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector experienced a significant decline, with the Chinese medicine index dropping by 2.03% last week, while other pharmaceutical sub-sectors also faced declines, except for medical services which saw a 1.67% increase [1][19] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.17X, down by 0.55X week-on-week, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 2.29X, down by 0.04X week-on-week [2] - The demand for flu-related and tonic herbs has increased, leading to a rise in the price index of Chinese medicinal materials, which is expected to continue to rise slightly in the future [3] - The national medical insurance work conference highlighted the restructuring of prices and market patterns as a major direction for the Chinese medicine industry in 2026, emphasizing the importance of collective procurement and support for innovation in the industry [4][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine index closed at 6372.09 points, down 2.03% last week, with only the medical services sector recording positive returns [1][19] Valuation - The current PE ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.17X, with a year-high of 30.26X and a year-low of 24.72X, placing it at the 28.41% percentile since 2013 [2] Supply Chain Insights - The price index for Chinese medicinal materials rose to 225.57 points, a 0.4% increase from the previous week, driven by increased demand due to the flu outbreak and winter tonic herbs [3] Policy and Market Trends - The 2026 direction for the Chinese medicine industry includes continued promotion of collective procurement and support for innovation, with an emphasis on price governance and market restructuring [4][10] - The focus on long-term care insurance is expected to increase demand for Chinese medicine products, particularly in the context of an aging population [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform, with specific recommendations for companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The vaccine industry is experiencing a transition from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, with significant advancements in various technical platforms and applications [5][9][10] - Recent developments include the approval of a freeze-dried mRNA vaccine for shingles by Watson Bio and the initiation of clinical trials for a six-valent norovirus vaccine by Yuan Da Life Sciences, indicating a strong focus on innovative vaccine solutions [5][9] - The industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and intense competition due to a high proportion of Me-too products, leading to price declines for some vaccines [9][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a relative decline, with a cumulative drop of 9.31% since the beginning of 2025, and a recent weekly decrease of 2.83% [6][7][12] - The sector's PE (ttm) is reported at 93.06X, with a recent decrease of 2.6X, while the PB (lf) stands at 1.8X, reflecting a slight decline [8] Market Dynamics - The vaccine industry is witnessing a collaborative breakthrough in technology, with advancements in mRNA, recombinant proteins, and live attenuated vaccines, enhancing product clinical progress and optimizing antigen design [5][9] - The demand for vaccines is expected to grow due to increased consumer willingness and an aging population, alongside opportunities for international market expansion [10][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technological barriers and differentiated pipeline layouts, particularly those engaged in innovative vaccine development and international expansion [9][10][29] - Specific companies recommended for attention include CanSino and Kanghua Biotech, with a short-term focus on flu vaccine-related enterprises [10][29]

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 湘财证券研究所 近十二个月行业表现 | % | 个月 | 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | 1 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -2.8 | | | | -4.9 | | -3.0 | | | 绝对收益 | -4.2 | -1.7 | | | 8.8 | | | | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 行业研究 银行业周报 社融增长平稳，企业短贷改善 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 社融增长平稳，企业短贷改善 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 根据 Wind 数据统计，11 月，社融增速较前值 ...