保险行业 估值驱动主要来自资产端 分析师：郭怡萍 登记编号：S0500523080002 2025年6月16日 目 录 一、预定利率将调整，新业务价值有望继续提升 二、长期股票投资试点扩大，资产端弹性增强 三、资产负债匹配有待进一步优化 四、估值驱动主要来自资产端 五、投资建议与风险提示 2 一 、预定利率将调整，新业务价值有望继续提升 3 1 预定利率将调整，新业务价值有望继续提升 图 1 预定利率面临调整（单位：%） 资料来源：Wind、工商银行官网、湘财证券研究所 4 n 预定利率研究值将调整，降低负债刚性成本。根据国家金融监管总局通知，当前保险公司普通人身险预定利率上限为2.5%。作为预定利率参 考值的预定利率研究值，参考5年期以上LPR、5年期定期存款利率、10年期国债收益率等市场利率变化和行业资产负债管理情况而定。一季 度普通型人身险产品预定利率研究值较年初下降21 BP至2.13%。 n 随着5月LPR与存款利率下调，二季度预定利率研究值有望继续下调。届时预定利率研究值连续两个季度低于预定利率超过25BP，将触发保 险公司产品预定利率下调机制，而险企需要在2个月内做好新老产品切换工作。预计调整窗 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the in vitro diagnostics industry [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The recent outbreak of measles in the United States, with confirmed cases reaching 1,168, is expected to drive demand for related diagnostic reagents, particularly in the in vitro diagnostics sector [5][52]. - The in vitro diagnostics sector has shown resilience, with a weekly increase of 2.00%, outperforming the broader pharmaceutical sector which rose by 1.13% [2][10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in measles virus testing as potential investment opportunities [5][52]. Industry Performance - The in vitro diagnostics sector's PE (ttm) is currently at 32.95X, with a historical maximum of 36.42X and a minimum of 20.96X over the past year [4][32]. - The PB (lf) stands at 1.68X, with historical values ranging from 1.97X to 1.44X [4][32]. - The sector's valuation is positioned at the 47.80th percentile historically, indicating a moderate valuation level [4][32]. Company Performance - Notable performers in the medical services sector include Rejing Bio (+9.5%), Mingde Bio (+7.2%), and Shuoshi Bio (+5.8%) [3][28]. - Conversely, companies like Antu Bio (-0.5%) and Jiuan Medical (-0.3%) have underperformed [3][28]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on the immunodiagnostics segment, particularly in chemiluminescence and molecular diagnostics, highlighting companies such as Yahui Long and Shengxiang Bio as key players [5][54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has demonstrated resilience through cycles, driven by both automotive electronics and precision die-casting businesses [1]. - The company leads the domestic market in automotive electronic products, with a market share of 23.4% for HUD products and 25.3% for in-car wireless charging products [2]. - The precision die-casting business is experiencing steady growth, with significant increases in orders from major clients such as Bosch and BYD [3]. - The company is expected to see strong earnings growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of 979 million yuan, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year increase [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Established in 1993, the company transitioned from a state-owned enterprise to a private limited company in 2003, shifting focus from multimedia to automotive industries [1]. Automotive Electronics - The company holds the top market share in HUD and in-car wireless charging products, with ongoing upgrades in domain control products expected to expand market share further [2]. Precision Die-Casting - The precision die-casting segment is robust, with applications in key automotive components and significant order increases from major clients, particularly in the areas of smart automotive parts and electric vehicle systems [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 979 million yuan and 1.266 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 50.3% and 29.3% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic wearable SoC market, focusing on ultra-low power technology and wireless communication solutions for smart wearable and smart home devices [4]. - The revenue from smartwatch chips is continuously increasing, significantly contributing to the company's high growth [5]. - The AI glasses market presents a vast opportunity, potentially becoming the company's third growth curve [6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460 million yuan, up 272.47% [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 999.5 million yuan, reflecting a 52.25% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 191 million yuan, a staggering increase of 590.22% [5]. - The gross margin improved from 32.93% in Q1 2024 to 38.47% in Q1 2025, primarily due to the rising revenue share from smartwatch chips [5]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 815 million yuan, 1.257 billion yuan, and 1.725 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 77.0%, 54.2%, and 37.2% [8][24]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 4.793 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.9% [10]. Market Position - The company has established itself in the supply chains of major global Android smartphone brands and leading audio manufacturers, enhancing its market presence [7][24]. - The company is currently providing MCU-level SoC solutions for AI glasses and is developing SoC-level solutions, indicating a strategic move into a new product line [6][24].

Group 1: U.S. Pension System Insights - The 401(k) plan, a key component of the U.S. pension system, has a significant asset allocation towards equities, with historical data showing annualized returns of 10.55% for the S&P 500 over the past decade[3] - Equity investments in the 401(k) plan are highly concentrated in healthcare, finance, and information technology, accounting for over 60% of total investments[4] - As of the end of 2024, mutual funds manage 60% of the 401(k) plan's assets, totaling approximately $5.3 trillion, with stock funds being the predominant type[5] Group 2: South Korean National Pension Insights - The South Korean National Pension emphasizes a diversified approach, with a focus on equity investments, achieving an investment return of 750.1 trillion KRW, significantly exceeding pension expenditures of 379.3 trillion KRW as of February 2025[8] - The National Pension Service follows a structured investment framework, targeting a 5-year return goal and focusing on investment performance[9] - The annualized return since inception for the National Pension is 6.82%, with global equities contributing a substantial 16.5% annualized return[13] Group 3: Implications for China's Long-term Capital Market - China's long-term capital, including insurance funds, social security funds, and public funds, is estimated to provide an annual incremental capital of approximately 2.1 trillion CNY to the stock market[14] - The strategic recommendation is to increase equity allocation while optimizing asset structure, as evidenced by the U.S. 401(k) plan's 71% equity allocation and South Korea's 47.9%[15] - A "barbell strategy" is suggested for balancing growth and value investments, focusing on sectors like IT, finance, and healthcare[16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [61]. Core Insights - The company, Guomao Co., is a leader in the domestic general reducer market, with a comprehensive product line covering approximately 120,000 models by 2024, catering to diverse customer needs and enhancing customer loyalty [2][10]. - The company's core competitive advantages include a direct sales and distribution network with 87 A-class distributors, and a modular technology that allows for efficient production, achieving a production rate of one reducer every three minutes [3][4]. - The growth strategy is driven by domestic substitution and high-end acquisitions, with Guomao's gear reducers nearing international standards in efficiency and lifespan, while being priced at about 50% of foreign counterparts [4]. - Policy support for equipment upgrades is expected to stimulate demand, with a projected 5% growth in reducer sales for 2024, further increasing market share as manufacturing recovers [5]. Company Overview - Guomao Co. has a diverse product range, primarily divided into gear reducers and cycloidal pinwheel reducers, with modular gear reducers covering power transmission from 0.12 to 200 kW [10][36]. - The company has a robust sales network, with 54% of sales through direct channels and 46% through distributors, allowing for extensive market coverage [18]. Financial Analysis - In 2024, Guomao's revenue from gear reducers is projected to be 1.951 billion, accounting for 76.3% of total revenue, while the cycloidal pinwheel reducers will contribute 356 million, or 13.92% [14]. - The gross margin for gear reducers is expected to decrease from 25.26% to 18.93% due to increased market competition, while the gross margin for cycloidal pinwheel reducers is projected to increase from 24.46% to 25.11% [14]. - The company emphasizes R&D investment, with a focus on developing new products and enhancing existing ones, which is reflected in the increase in R&D expenses [50]. Industry Insights - The domestic reducer market is experiencing accelerated growth due to improved technology levels among local manufacturers, with domestic brands capturing a significant market share from foreign competitors [32]. - The government's policies aimed at promoting equipment upgrades and replacements are expected to drive demand for reducers, particularly in key industries such as steel and chemicals [29][25]. - The market for harmonic reducers is projected to grow significantly, with potential revenues reaching 14.4 billion by 2028, driven by the increasing demand for humanoid robots [40].

Group 1: U.S. Pension System Insights - The 401(K) plan is a key component of the U.S. pension system, with a significant focus on equity investments, which dominate asset allocation[3] - Over the past decade, the annualized returns for major U.S. indices have been notably high, with the S&P 500 at 10.55%, Dow Jones at 8.58%, and Nasdaq at 13.91%[3] - Equity investments are highly concentrated in healthcare, finance, and information technology, accounting for over 60% of the total allocation[4] Group 2: Investment Mechanisms and Innovations - The 401(K) plan primarily utilizes mutual funds, managing approximately $5.3 trillion, with stock funds being the most prevalent[5] - Mechanisms like "automatic enrollment" and "default investment" effectively engage less experienced investors, contributing to market liquidity[6] - Target Date Funds (TDF) dominate the investment landscape, with a total size of $1.33 trillion, representing 68% of all defined contribution plan assets[7] Group 3: South Korean Pension Insights - The Korean National Pension Plan emphasizes equity, globalization, and diversification, achieving investment returns of 750.1 trillion KRW, significantly exceeding pension expenditures of 379.3 trillion KRW[8] - The investment framework follows a top-down approach, focusing on achieving a 5-year return target and optimizing asset allocation for maximum returns[9] - The annualized return since inception is 6.82%, with global equities contributing 16.5% and alternative investments at 10.99%, far surpassing domestic fixed income returns of 2.35%[15] Group 4: Implications for China's Long-term Capital Market - China's long-term capital market can expect an annual influx of approximately 2.1 trillion CNY from insurance, social security, and public funds[16] - The trend indicates a shift towards increasing equity allocations, with the U.S. 401(K) plan allocating 71% to stocks and the Korean pension plan at 47.9%[17] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing value and growth assets, particularly in sectors like IT, finance, and healthcare[18] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Strategically, a greater allocation to equity assets is advised, while fixed income should focus on high-yield government bonds[20] - Tactically, a balanced approach is suggested, targeting low-volatility dividend assets and high-growth sectors[20] - Specific investment directions include broad market indices like the Shanghai Composite, financial sector stocks, and technology firms[20]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a balanced high dividend and high payout strategy by combining dividend yield and payout ratio factors to identify investment opportunities [4][12][19] - High dividend sectors include banking, coal, and oil & petrochemicals, which are characterized by low valuations and stable returns, presenting good allocation opportunities as state-owned enterprises enhance market value management [4][19] - High payout sectors focus on consumer industries such as textiles, food and beverage, and light manufacturing, which exhibit high payout ratios and good growth potential, benefiting from stable free cash flow and active capital markets under current growth policies [4][19] Group 2 - The stock selection criteria involve identifying stocks with sustainable dividend strategies, setting minimum dividend yield requirements, and utilizing a scoring system based on payout ratio, dividend yield, growth, and valuation [5][20][23] - The backtesting results indicate a cumulative return of 194.19% over five years, with an annualized return of 24.15%, significantly outperforming the dividend quality index by 125.07% [5][28][30] Group 3 - The industry weight adjustment strategy includes monitoring key indicators such as net interest margin and non-performing loan ratios in the banking sector, while also considering risks affecting asset quality [6][41] - For the coal industry, the focus is on monitoring coal prices and consumption rates, with expectations of marginal improvement as summer electricity demand rises [6][41] - The oil and petrochemical sector is analyzed based on price differentials and supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of oversupply continuing into 2025 [6][41] Group 4 - Future optimization strategies include expanding industry selection beyond current sectors based on historical data, establishing differentiated evaluation logic for various industries, and incorporating operational quality indicators to enhance the sustainability of dividends [9][45][48]

Group 1 - The adjustment of deposit interest rates will contribute to the decline of real interest rates in China, benefiting the development of wealth management businesses [3][4][7] - The recent reduction in the one-year deposit interest rate to 0.95% is part of a broader financial policy aimed at enhancing bank profitability and encouraging credit lending [4][6] - Historical data indicates that lower deposit rates have previously led to significant increases in public fund sizes, suggesting a similar trend may occur following the current rate cuts [7][8] Group 2 - The decline in deposit rates is expected to stimulate consumer spending and borrowing, potentially boosting domestic demand in the short term [7][8] - For financial institutions, the synchronized reduction of deposit and loan rates is unlikely to significantly impact profit margins, prompting a shift towards wealth management and insurance services [8] - The lower financing costs resulting from reduced deposit rates will provide greater opportunities for enterprises to expand production and upgrade technology, facilitating economic structural transformation [8] Group 3 - The ongoing trend of decreasing deposit rates is anticipated to continue, with implications for the capital market and public funds, as seen in previous years [6][9] - The current market environment, characterized by reduced tariffs and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for the A-share market [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weigao Orthopedics [3][6]. Core Views - The company's performance is expected to recover significantly in 2024, with revenue and net profit showing comprehensive growth, reversing the downward trend observed since 2022 [1][3]. - The core product lines are anticipated to see both volume and price increases, with further recovery expected in 2025 [2][3]. - Weigao Orthopedics is actively diversifying its research and development efforts, expanding into areas outside of centralized procurement [2][3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.75 billion, 18.21 billion, and 21.10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.65 billion, 3.17 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan [3][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.66, 0.79, and 0.90 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 39.30, 32.83, and 28.79 respectively [3][5]. Business Overview - Weigao Orthopedics is recognized as a leading domestic orthopedic consumables company, with a comprehensive product line covering joints, spine, trauma, and sports medicine [10][11]. - The company has seen a significant increase in sales volume across its three main product lines in 2024, marking a turnaround in performance [22][25]. - The company’s revenue structure is healthy, with contributions from joint and spine products being nearly equal, and low dependency on any single business line [19][20]. Market Dynamics - The risk of significant price reductions due to centralized procurement has been alleviated, with stable pricing expected in 2025 [31][33]. - The aging population is driving demand for orthopedic products, with a notable increase in the prevalence of conditions such as osteoarthritis and osteoporosis among older adults [35][37]. - The market for orthopedic consumables is expected to grow as the number of elderly patients increases, leading to higher clinical demand for orthopedic surgeries [44][45]. Competitive Position - Weigao Orthopedics has maintained a strong market share in the orthopedic consumables sector, particularly in the artificial joint segment, where it has benefited from the national procurement policies [45][51]. - The company’s pricing strategy and product quality have positioned it favorably against both domestic and international competitors [64][65].