Financial Engineering - The volatility skew strategy involves arbitrage trading based on the implied volatility differences between in-the-money and out-of-the-money options. The VSI indicator is used to describe these differences, calculated as the ratio of the implied volatility of an out-of-the-money option to that of an in-the-money option. Under normal conditions, the VSI indicator fluctuates within a certain range, but significant differences in volatility ratios indicate potential arbitrage opportunities [2][3]. - The strategy's performance is closely correlated with current volatility levels. Position control signals are established based on the volatility level. If the current volatility is high and the option combination has negative volatility risk exposure, it is favorable to trade with full positions. Conversely, if the exposure is positive, only half the position should be used [4][5]. Strategy Performance - From February 2015 to August 2025, the annualized return for the call strategy was 17.43% with a maximum drawdown of 13.83%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.85. The put strategy had an annualized return of 17.47% with a maximum drawdown of 10.64% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.50. The combined strategy achieved an annualized return of 17.65%, a maximum drawdown of 7.52%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.98 [5]. - In the current year, the call strategy yielded a return of 4.52% with a maximum drawdown of 2.93%, while the put strategy experienced a return of -4.16% with a maximum drawdown of 10.49%. The combined strategy returned 0.26% with a maximum drawdown of 5.57% [5]. - Over the past two weeks (August 11 to August 22, 2025), the call strategy returned 0.60% with a maximum drawdown of 0.32%, while the put strategy returned -0.17% with a maximum drawdown of 0.49%. The combined strategy returned 0.22% with a maximum drawdown of 0.34% [5]. Trading Signals - As of August 22, 2025, the call strategy triggered two opening signals in the past two weeks, with the latest position being empty. The put strategy did not trigger any opening signals and remained empty. The volatility signal was negative, indicating that the implied volatility level was higher than the historical volatility [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the fluorochemical industry, benefiting from a high demand for refrigerants, which has significantly boosted its performance [10][15] - The company has experienced strong revenue growth, with a 10.36% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 13.33 billion yuan, and a remarkable 146.97% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 2.05 billion yuan [5][6] - The price of refrigerants has seen a substantial increase, with an average price of 39,372.45 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 61.88% year-on-year growth [6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 75.31 billion yuan in Q2 2025, marking a 13.93% year-on-year increase and a 29.84% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, up 138.82% year-on-year and 53.57% quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 5.07 billion, 6.04 billion, and 7.05 billion yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 4.31 billion, 5.30 billion, and 6.17 billion yuan [10][15] Business Outlook - The company is advancing multiple projects that are expected to contribute to future revenue growth, including expansions and upgrades in various production facilities [8] - The fluorochemical industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance due to quota policies and increasing end-user demand, particularly in the air conditioning sector [10][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The DDR4 market prices continue to rise, with LPDDR4X prices significantly increasing due to supply-side reductions and competitive bidding among suppliers. The demand for mid-to-low-end mobile phones and tablets remains stable, driving prices upward. Trendforce forecasts a price increase of 38%-43% for LPDDR4X in the third quarter [4][11] - The SSD market shows a slight price decline, with embedded channel market prices stabilizing recently. Major NAND manufacturers are shifting capacity from low-margin products to high-margin QLC products, leading to price increases for products below 512Gb. However, overall demand remains low, and inventory reduction is the primary focus for industry clients [5][17] - The demand for niche DRAM is expected to remain strong as SK Hynix and Micron gradually exit this market. The recovery in demand from PC, IoT, and industrial control sectors, along with domestic substitution trends, is anticipated to drive prices upward for various storage manufacturers [6][22] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reduction and Price Increase - DDR4 prices are stabilizing in the short term but are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages. The DXI index has increased by 97.38% year-to-date, reflecting the upward trend in prices [8][4] - LPDDR4X prices are projected to rise significantly due to supply constraints, with a monthly price increase of 6.7% for 96GB products and 10.2% for 48GB products [12][11] 2. SSD Market Dynamics - The SSD market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with a monthly decrease of 2.4% for 256Gb PCIe3.0 products and 3.1% for 512Gb PCIe3.0 products. The overall supply remains sufficient, but demand is weak, leading to a cautious inventory approach by clients [17][18] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Lanke Technology, Juchen Co., and Shenkong Co. as potential beneficiaries of the upward price trends in the storage market [6][22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5][28] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the prosperity of the titanium dioxide industry, which has been facing challenges due to rapid capacity expansion leading to oversupply and historically low price differentials [4][8] - As of June 23, 2025, 21.86% of titanium dioxide production capacity is considered outdated, primarily using the sulfate process, which is targeted for elimination under the new policy [4][8] - The elimination of outdated capacity is anticipated to gradually alleviate the oversupply situation in the titanium dioxide industry [4][8] Summary by Sections Industry Data - The titanium dioxide industry has experienced a downturn due to rapid capacity expansion and oversupply, resulting in price differentials at historical lows [4][8] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to assess and eliminate outdated production facilities, which could significantly impact the industry's supply dynamics [4][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry and recommends focusing on leading companies such as Longbai Group [5][28]

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 158 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 8 月 27 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：李正威 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 2.1、电子（李杰） DeepSeek V3.1 发布，看好国产算力需求 市场表现：上周电子行业上涨 8.95% 根据 Wind 数据，上周（2025.08.18-2025.08.22）电子报收 5769.27 点，上涨 8.95%；半 导体报收 6169.20 点，上涨 12.26%；消费电子报收 8615.39 点，上涨 8.26%；元件报收 10930.98 点，上涨 1.68%；光学光电子报收 1666.99 点，上涨 7.13%。 从公司表现来看，表现居前的公司有：科森科技、盛科通信-U、芯原股份、南亚新材、 成都华微；表现靠后的公司有：久量股份、威尔高、冠石科技、福日电子、可立克。 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 保利发展（600048.SH） 25H1 业绩承压，销售拿地规模领先 相关研究： 根据公司发布的 2025 年半年报，公司今年上半年实现营业总收入 1168.57 亿元（同比-16.08%），实现归母净利润 27.11 亿元（同比-63.47%），与业绩 快报基本保持一致。单季度看，2025Q2 营业总收入、归母净利润分别为 625.85 亿元、7.6 亿元，同比分别为-30.07%、-85.38%，环比分别为+15.32%、 -61.04%。 ❑ 销售：加快库存去化，销售聚焦核心城市 ❑ 投资：补充核心城市土地储备，权益拿地金额排名第一 公司在加快存量项目去化的同时，积极补充土地储备，避免可售货值和库 存质量下降。公司在二季度把握结构性机会，聚焦市场表现稳定、竞争优 | 核心要点： | | --- | ❑ 业绩：25H1 收入和业绩承压，毛利率较去年全年回升 公司评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月公司表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -7 -11 -26 绝对收益 1 5 9 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the global investment opportunities in the second half of 2025 are driven by the U.S. "Big and Beautiful Act," which raises the debt ceiling and reduces corporate taxes, leading to new highs in the U.S. stock market. This act, along with the implementation of reciprocal tariff policies, is expected to indirectly benefit Chinese assets and the A-share market [1][14][16] - The "GENIUS Act" is anticipated to transform the global monetary system through the development of stablecoins, which will have far-reaching implications for the financial landscape [1][14][31] - The report highlights that the long-term economic outlook is characterized by a decline in global GDP growth, with the U.S.-China conflict being a significant factor, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to benefit from a focus on low-yield and high-valuation stocks [1][16] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the external pressures on China's economic development primarily stem from the U.S. reciprocal tariff policies, which have led to a significant decline in the competitiveness of Chinese goods in the U.S. market [3][41][42] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" are identified as key drivers for capital market directions, focusing on high-quality development and the "Beautiful China" initiative [4][45][47] - The report outlines that the high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize innovation-driven growth, green transformation, and sustainable development, which are crucial for the future of various industries [5][48][49]

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 157 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 8 月 26 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：孙菲 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1、公用事业（孙菲） 行情回顾：本周公用事业(申万)上涨 1.89%，跑输大盘 2.29pct 根据 wind，截至 8 月 22 日，本周沪深 300 上涨 4.18%，公用事业(申万)上涨 1.89%，跑 输沪深 300 指数 2.29pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 23 位。子板块中，热力服务上涨 5.46%， 光伏发电上涨 4.84%，火电上涨 3.38%，电能综合服务上涨 1.29%，水电上涨 1.05%，风电上 涨 0.56%，燃气下跌 0.3%。 重点数据跟踪 本周现货煤价周环比继续上升，库存回升： 国内现货：根据 wind，截至 8 月 22 日，秦皇岛动力煤(Q5500,山西产) ...

Macro Strategy - In August, the LPR remained unchanged, with the 1-year loan market quoted rate at 3.00% and the 5-year rate at 3.50%, marking the third consecutive month of stability after a reduction in May [3][4] - Public fiscal expenditure in July showed a year-on-year growth of 3.04%, ending a decline seen in May and June, with a cumulative growth of 3.40% for the first seven months [4] Stock Market Overview - From August 18 to August 22, A-share indices experienced significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index by 5.85%, among others [5][6] - All 31 first-level industries in the A-share market saw gains, with the communication and electronics sectors leading with weekly increases of 10.84% and 8.95% respectively [6][7] - The overall market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, supported by new policies and investment strategies [7][8] North Exchange Market - As of August 22, 2025, the North Exchange had 273 listed stocks, with an average total market capitalization of 919.56 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.75% increase from the previous week [9][10] - Newly listed companies such as Hongyuan Co. and Nengzhiguang saw substantial weekly gains of 281.90% and 344.38% respectively [9][10] - The liquidity in the North Exchange improved significantly, with average trading volume increasing by 55.06% and average trading value by 62.92% [10] Pharmaceutical Industry - Kangxino's half-year report for 2025 showed a revenue of 382 million yuan, a 26% year-on-year increase, with a narrowed net loss of 13.49 million yuan [14][15] - The growth was primarily driven by the sales of its meningitis product, especially the Mankaixin, which achieved a revenue of 364 million yuan, up 38.43% year-on-year [15][16] - The company is expanding its market presence with plans for new product launches and international collaborations, particularly for its pneumonia vaccine [16][17] Chemical Industry - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity in the soda ash sector, potentially improving industry conditions [21][22] - The soda ash market has been under pressure due to oversupply, but the removal of older production facilities could help stabilize prices [21][22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5][6] Core Insights - Recent inventory of polyester filament has decreased, and the demand peak season is approaching. In the first seven months of 2025, the production of polyester filament increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with a July operating rate of 89.2%. As of August 21, the inventory days for POY, DTY, and FDY were 13.8, 27.8, and 22.7 days respectively, showing a decline of 2.3, 0.4, and 0.6 days compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption of polyester filament grew approximately 6.0% year-on-year, and export volume increased by 13.8% [5][9]. The profitability margins for POY, DTY, and FDY against their main raw materials were 1149, 2324, and 1424 CNY/ton respectively. The industry is expected to improve as the "Golden September and Silver October" demand season approaches [5][6]. Summary by Sections Polyester Filament Industry Data - Recent inventory of polyester filament has decreased. In the first seven months of 2025, the production increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with a July operating rate of 89.2%. As of August 21, the inventory days for POY, DTY, and FDY were 13.8, 27.8, and 22.7 days respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption increased by approximately 6.0% year-on-year, and export volume rose by 13.8% [9][5]. Investment Recommendations - The recent decrease in polyester filament inventory and the upcoming demand peak season are expected to enhance the industry's outlook. In the medium to long term, the industry has initiated high-quality development initiatives to prevent "involution" competition. Companies are likely to improve profitability through rational expansion on the supply side and industry self-discipline. The industry rating remains "Overweight" [6][33].