Macro Strategy - The recent escalation of the US-China tariff conflict is highlighted, with Trump announcing a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which could lead to an average tariff rate exceeding 140% on Chinese exports to the US [2][4][5] - The report suggests that the ongoing negotiations between the US and China have been undermined by these recent actions, indicating a likely continuation of a tense relationship, although a gradual easing of tensions is anticipated as China's export share to the US declines [2][4] Capital Market Impact - The US stock market experienced a significant drop on October 10, 2025, but the decline was less severe compared to the drop in April when similar tariffs were introduced, indicating a more reserved market reaction to the worsening trade relations [4][11] - The A-share market showed resilience initially but began to decline following the announcement of additional fees on US vessels, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation indices experiencing drops of over 4% on October 10 [4][8] Industry Analysis - The proposed 100% tariff is expected to severely impact Chinese exporters, particularly in categories such as electrical equipment, machinery, and furniture, which are among the most affected sectors [5] - The rare earth industry is projected to benefit from the situation, with leading companies like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel adjusting their pricing strategies in response to market conditions [5][6] Semiconductor Equipment Sector - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to attract more international investment due to China's tightening control over rare earth materials, which are critical for manufacturing [6] - The report notes that companies like ASML may face operational challenges due to the reliance on rare earth components, potentially leading to increased investment in China's semiconductor sector [6] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry saw a slight decline of 0.15% from October 9 to 10, 2025, with varying performance across sub-sectors, such as soft drinks and dairy products showing positive growth [15][16] - The report indicates that the industry is currently undervalued, with a PE ratio of 21X, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies within the sector [16][18] Consumer Behavior Insights - The report highlights a surge in domestic travel during the recent holidays, with 888 million trips taken, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending despite a slight decline in per capita expenditure [17] - The restaurant sector performed well during the holiday period, with significant sales growth reported among major retail and dining establishments [17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies with strong growth potential in the food and beverage sector, particularly those innovating in product categories and distribution channels [18] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying companies that are well-positioned to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, recommending a "buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a slight decline of 0.15% from October 9 to October 10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.36 percentage points [3][7] - The industry is currently valued at a PE ratio of 21X, ranking 22nd among the Shenwan first-level industries, indicating a relatively low valuation [3][16] - During the recent double holiday period, domestic travel increased significantly, with 888 million trips taken, leading to a total expenditure of 809 billion yuan, although per capita spending saw a slight decline [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's relative performance over the past 12 months shows a decline of 24.9%, with absolute returns down by 6.2% [2] - The sector's performance from October 9 to October 10 saw soft drinks rise by 4.86%, dairy products by 1.83%, and health products by 1.32% [3][7] Consumer Behavior - The double holiday period saw a total of 2.9 million cultural and tourism events, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales [4] - Foot traffic and sales in monitored pedestrian streets increased by 8.8% and 6.0% respectively during the holiday [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable demand and strong risk resilience, as well as those innovating in new products and channels [5][45] - Recommended companies include New Dairy, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Yanjinpuzi, and Qingdao Beer [5][45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][11]. Core Views - The vaccine industry is currently experiencing a transition from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term positive outlook remains unchanged [10][11]. - The industry is under pressure in Q2 2025, with performance still in a bottoming process due to high Me-too pipeline ratios leading to intense competition and price declines, alongside weak demand and market education [9][10]. - The focus is on innovation and international market expansion, with companies actively adjusting their pipeline layouts to enhance competitive advantages [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has shown a relative performance decline of -7% over the past month and -29% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [5]. - The vaccine sector's absolute return is -5% for the past month and -12% for the past year [5]. Market Review - The vaccine sector rose by 0.72% last week, with a cumulative decline of -2.35% since the beginning of 2025 [6]. - Notable companies in the vaccine sector include Lianoning Chengda, Hualan Biological, and Wantai Biological, while companies like Olin Biological and CanSino have underperformed [7]. Valuation - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 103.74X, with a year-on-year maximum of 111.89X and a minimum of 27.99X [8]. - The PB (lf) stands at 1.91X, with a maximum of 2.29X and a minimum of 1.69X over the past year [8]. Investment Recommendations - The vaccine industry is advised to focus on companies with high technical barriers and differentiated pipeline layouts to find alpha opportunities amid industry differentiation [11][28]. - Companies with strong R&D innovation and technical advantages, such as CanSino and Kanghua Biological, are recommended for investment [11][28].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Buy" [6][10]. Core Views - The recent geopolitical tensions between China and the US have led to a pullback in the medical services sector, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged due to the strengthening of domestic companies' capabilities in the innovative drug industry [10][64]. - The report emphasizes the importance of company capabilities in driving industry development, suggesting a focus on high-growth areas such as ADC CDMO and peptide CDMO, as well as companies like WuXi AppTec and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical [10][64]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical and biological sector fell by 1.20%, ranking 25th among 31 primary industries [2][12]. - The medical services sub-sector reported a decline of 3.37%, closing at 7156.07 points, which is a significant drop compared to other sub-sectors [24][25]. Company Performance - Notable performers in the medical services sector include Sanbo Brain Science (+3.5%), Meinian Health (+2.8%), and Aier Eye Hospital (+2.6%), while underperformers include Medicy (-8.8%) and Kanglong Chemical (-7.5%) [3][31]. - The report highlights a significant pullback in CXO-related companies [3][31]. Valuation Metrics - The current PE ratio for the medical services sector is 36.92X, with a PB ratio of 3.77X, showing a decrease from the previous week [4][32]. - The PE ratio has fluctuated between a maximum of 41.13X and a minimum of 28.46X over the past year [4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth companies in the medical outsourcing services and those with expected improvements in profitability, particularly in third-party testing laboratories and consumer healthcare sectors like ophthalmology and dentistry [10][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [3][8]. Core Views - The securities sector is expected to see a recovery in performance due to active market trading in the third quarter, with valuations currently at reasonable levels, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8][28]. - The average daily stock trading volume in the two markets reached 25,869 billion yuan, a significant increase of 19% week-on-week, reflecting a strong recovery in trading activity post-holiday [6][15]. - In September, the equity financing scale reached 43.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109%, indicating robust activity in the investment banking sector [7][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that during the first week after the holiday, the securities sector performed actively, with the broker index rising by 0.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1 percentage point [5][10]. - The broker index's price-to-book ratio stands at 1.48x, maintaining a level consistent with the previous week and within the 48th percentile of the past decade [5][10]. Industry Weekly Data - **Brokerage Business**: The average daily stock trading volume in September was 23,927 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 154% [6][15]. - **Investment Banking**: In September, 28 companies engaged in equity financing, with a total financing scale of 437 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 109% [7][20]. - **Capital Intermediation**: As of October 10, the margin trading balance reached 24,456 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase from the previous period, continuing to set new highs for the year [7][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokers with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and recommends attention to Jiufang Zhitu Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to their strong performance certainty amid active trading [8][28].

Group 1 - The recent escalation of the US-China trade conflict has led to a proposed 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, which could result in an average tariff rate exceeding 140% on Chinese exports to the US [1][4][31] - The sectors most affected by the proposed tariffs include electrical machinery, nuclear reactors, and furniture, which have significant export volumes to the US [4][35] - The rare earth industry is expected to benefit from the trade conflict, with leading companies like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announcing price increases for rare earth minerals, indicating a potential rise in prices due to reduced supply [36][39] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment industry may see increased international investment as a result of China's tightening control over rare earth exports, which could impact US military and semiconductor sectors [5][40] - The A-share market has shown resilience initially but began to decline following the announcement of new tariffs and fees on US vessels, indicating a potential for prolonged volatility in the market [3][16] - Financial sectors such as banks and insurance, which have already undergone significant adjustments, are recommended for attention as they may present investment opportunities amidst the trade tensions [6][41]

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 药明康德（603259）更新报告 R 端开源引流，D&M 潜力不断释放 相关研究： 核心要点： 全球化 CRDMO 网络不断强化，将受益小分子 CRO 发展 D&M：管线数量兼具质量，及早捕捉创新机遇 R 端引流带来源源不断的分子管线，为药明康德的长期发展提供了源泉。 根据药明康德公众号，2024 下半年到 2025 上半年的 12 个月里，在"跟随 分子"和"赢得分子"的双重驱动下，CRDMO 小分子管线持续向后端转 化，在 R 阶段成功交付了超过 44 万个新化合物，而在 D&M 阶段，2025 年上半年新增了 412 个分子，管线分子数超过 3,400 个，包括 76 个商业化 项目。从 2024 年到 2025 年上半年，在美国 FDA 批准的 40 款小分子药物 中，有 8 款药物由药明康德化学业务平台支持，占比达到 20%。2024 年， 1.《TIDES业务表现亮眼，上调全 年营收指引》 2025.07.29 公司评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月公司表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 3 47 136 绝对收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In September, convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks overall, but there was significant differentiation among sectors. High - price convertible bonds continued their strong performance, and the high - price convertible bond index led the gains. The technology sector's rise slightly declined, while the financial sector was under pressure. Under the expectation of a bull market in the equity market, the double - low strategy continued to underperform the high - price and low - premium strategy [1][2][3]. - Although high - price convertible bonds have stronger equity characteristics, the double - low strategy still has the advantage of being offensive and defensive. Actively screening sectors and individual stocks according to market trends can help obtain excess returns. In the context of the continuous rise of convertible bonds, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical level, and the number of individual bonds triggering forced redemptions is increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - Overall performance: In September (from September 1st to 30th), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.97%, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 2.65%. Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index rose 17.11% and 23.68% respectively. The convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks, but there was obvious differentiation among sectors. The CSI Convertible Bond Index underperformed the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes by 1 pct and 3 pct respectively, but outperformed the CSI 2000 index by 2 pct [11]. - Classification by price: In September, the Wind high - price convertible bond index rose 5.92%, with the growth rate narrowing compared to August, but still significantly leading the low - price (+3.14%) and medium - price (+3.26%) convertible bonds. Since May, high - price convertible bonds have continuously outperformed medium - and low - price ones. Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the high - price convertible bond index has accumulated a 27.47% increase, especially significantly outperforming medium - and low - price indexes in the third quarter [12]. - Classification by outstanding scale: In September, the Wind small - cap (+2.73%) and medium - cap (+2.89%) convertible bond indexes led the gains, significantly outperforming the large - cap convertible bonds (+0.14%). Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the small - cap convertible bond index rose 23.93%, far ahead of the large - cap (+10.56%) and medium - cap (+17.35%) convertible bonds [16]. - Classification by credit rating: In September, the AAA high - rating convertible bond index fell 1.36%, while the AA - and below convertible bond index rose 3.15%, underperforming the AA + (+3.75%) and AA (+4.23%) convertible bond indexes. Throughout the year, low - rating convertible bonds still significantly outperformed high - rating ones, reflecting a relatively high market risk appetite [18]. - Sector performance: In September, the technology sector's rise slightly declined, and the financial sector was under pressure. The information technology and industrial convertible bond indexes rose 4.28% and 4.11% respectively, with the information technology sector still being the best - performing one. Except for information technology, industrial, and material convertible bonds, the performance of convertible bonds in other sectors was stronger than that of underlying stocks. The convertible bonds and underlying stocks in the financial sector both declined in September [22]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 3.2.1 Strategy Recommendation: Select High - Growth Industries from Low - Price Convertible Bonds - September double - low portfolio performance: The double - low portfolio constructed in September selected the bottom 10% of individual bonds in terms of double - low values. After active screening, 10 individual bonds were obtained, mainly concentrated in the light manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries. From September 1st to 30th, the portfolio's return rate was 5.92%, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by about 4 pct. Cumulatively, since its construction in June, the portfolio's cumulative return rate was 19.12%, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 5.3 pct [31]. - October double - low portfolio recommendation: In the context of the continuous rise of convertible bonds, individual bonds with low double - low values face higher risks of delisting and forced redemption, and the number of eligible individual bonds has decreased. This month, 10 individual bonds were selected from the bottom 10% of double - low value rankings. These recommended individual bonds are mainly concentrated in non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment industries, with an average convertible bond price of 133 yuan, conversion value of 122 yuan, and conversion premium rate of 9% [35]. 3.2.2 Allocation Recommendation: Focus on Technology Growth and "Anti - involution" - Related Sectors - Convertible bonds have entered a high - valuation range. At this stage, more attention should be paid to the safety margin. Under the unbroken expectation of a bull market, sectors at a low level with the expectation of a catch - up can be focused on. It is recommended to pay attention to "anti - involution" - related sectors with long - term logic, such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, engineering machinery, and chemical industries, as well as the callback layout opportunities of high - growth sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, AI computing power, and innovative drugs [37].

晨 会 纪 要 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 [2025]第 184 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 10 月 10 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡 萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾 华昊 整理记录：张智珑 1.1 房地产行业（张智珑） 北京：根据 Wind 数据，受国庆假期影响，北京近一周（9.27-10.3）新房、二手房日均 成交同比小幅回落，其中二手住宅日均成交 392 套，同比增长 0.9%；新房日均成交 135 套， 同比下降 4.8%。从 8 月新政效果看，近一周新房日均成交套数较 8 月 8 日前一周增长 88%， 近一周二手房日均成交套数较新政前一周增长 4.8%，主要是国庆前三天假期网签数据下降 较多。 上海：根据 Wind 数据，上海近一周（9.27-10.3）二手房日均成交 477 套，同比增长 12%；新房日均成交 224 套，同比增长 6%，涨幅均有收窄。从新政效果来看，近一周新房 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 09 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业理财研究 银行理财月度跟踪 相关研究： | 1. | 《2025中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 行业评级：增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -10.1 -28.1 -8.8 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 理财市场动态 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 今年以来，理财存续规模保持稳定增长，但与公募基金相比，理财规模增 长速度较慢。根据 Wind 援引基金业协会数据，截至 2025 年 8 月末，公募 基金规模为 36.25 万亿元，同比增长 17.3%。理财存续规模自上半年末开始 超过 30 万亿元，增速仅为个位数。一方面，由于存款利率低位环境下的资 金迁移效应，理财规模整体保持扩张态势。另一方 ...