Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry [4][56] Core Views - The home appliance industry has shown a weekly increase of +2.34%, ranking 25th among its peers, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -0.08% [5][11] - The industry is experiencing a shift from incremental competition to stock integration, with a focus on efficiency optimization, product innovation, and technological upgrades [9][56] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the home appliance industry is 15.65, ranking 25th among 31 industries, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the CSI 300 index [7][28] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The home appliance sector's performance over the past month shows a +2.34% increase, with notable sub-sectors such as home appliance components III (+4.11%), other black appliances (+3.99%), and kitchen appliances (+3.84%) leading the gains [5][19] Policy and Market Trends - The national subsidy program has been streamlined to focus on six categories of appliances, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price and clear caps on subsidies for energy-efficient products [7][9] - The 2026 CES highlighted trends in AI integration, display technology innovations, and scenario-based applications in new appliance products [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Companies with solid market positions and high dividend yields in the white goods sector [9][56] 2. Companies that can leverage new products and technologies to explore new demands or expand into new markets [9][56] 3. Opportunities arising from the "trade-in" policy and upgrades in AI and smart home technologies [9][56]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [10][37] Core Insights - The central bank's 2026 work meeting emphasized a stable interest margin expectation, indicating a shift in focus from reducing financing costs to maintaining them at low levels [7][34] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing financial services for high-quality economic development, directing funds towards key areas such as technological innovation and small and medium enterprises [7][34] - The credit market is showing signs of stabilization, with a shift from quantity to quality in credit issuance, and a reduction in the pace of loan rate declines [8][34] Summary by Sections Market Review - The banking index fell by 1.90%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.69 percentage points [12] - The performance of various banking sectors showed declines, with large banks down by 2.94% and regional banks performing relatively better [12] Monetary Policy - The central bank's monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, focusing on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [7][34] - The emphasis will be on stabilizing corporate financing cost expectations and preventing significant interest rate fluctuations [7][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks with stable asset deployment and regional banks with growth potential, recommending specific banks such as ICBC, Bank of China, and others [10][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has seen a significant increase of 8.85% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 6.06 percentage points [4][11] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has rebounded to 79.91x, which is at the 90.6% historical percentile [4][11] - The prices of rare earth concentrates continue to rise, with notable increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while dysprosium and terbium prices have surged significantly [5][19] - The supply side remains relatively stable, with a tight circulation of oxides, while the demand side shows stability despite some short-term pressures on high-priced procurement [39] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of 5%, a 3-month return of -5%, and a 12-month return of 68% [3] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 9%, -4%, and 94% respectively [3] Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices increased by 4.88%, while prices for Sichuan and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ores rose by 5.56% and 6.45% respectively [8][12] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 2.88%, and the metal price increased by 3.06% [15] - Dysprosium oxide prices surged by 7.46%, and dysprosium metal prices increased by 12.02% [19] - The average price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron N35 increased by 3.46%, while H35 rose by 2.33% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, citing a recovery in market sentiment and resilient pricing in the supply chain [40][41] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from valuation premiums and stable profits [41] - Downstream magnetic material companies with good customer structures and potential growth points, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet, are also highlighted for attention [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The market performance of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector has shown a modest increase of 2.89%, which is the smallest among the pharmaceutical sub-sectors due to a lack of short-term catalysts and market style shifts [4][5] - The TCM sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio (ttm) is 27.39X, reflecting a 0.76X increase from the previous week, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio (lf) stands at 2.3X, up 0.06X [6] - The national health conference held in January 2026 indicates a positive outlook for the penetration rate of TCM services, suggesting a comprehensive development approach for TCM in various healthcare aspects [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The TCM sector's performance is lagging behind other pharmaceutical sub-sectors, with a 12-month relative return of -24% compared to the CSI 300 index [4] - The TCM sector's index closed at 6414.65 points, with a weekly increase of 2.89% [21] Valuation - The TCM sector's PE ratio (ttm) is at 27.39X, with a maximum of 30.26X and a minimum of 24.72X over the past year [6] - The PB ratio (lf) is 2.3X, with a maximum of 2.52X and a minimum of 2.17X in the same period [6] Industry Trends - The TCM material market has seen a slight decline in price index due to reduced market traffic, with a total index of 227.06 points, down 0.6% week-on-week [7] - The national health conference emphasizes the ongoing development of TCM services, which is expected to enhance its integration into the healthcare system [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [9] - Specific investment targets include companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, as well as those less affected by centralized procurement [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][51] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry saw a 2.12% increase from January 5 to January 9, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.66 percentage points [5][11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery in consumer demand [7][8] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a historically low level, with a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 21X, ranking 23rd among Shenwan's primary industries [6][51] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index increased by 2.12% during the specified week, with most sub-sectors, except for meat products and dairy, showing positive growth [5][11] - The relative performance against the CSI 300 index was -3.1% over one month, -3.6% over three months, and -28.5% over twelve months [4] Valuation Metrics - As of January 5, 2026, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio is 21X, with sub-sectors like other alcoholic beverages (52X), snacks (38X), and health products (36X) having higher valuations, while white liquor (19X), beer (22X), and pre-processed foods (24X) are lower [6][19] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.8% is the highest since March 2023, driven primarily by rising food prices, which increased by 1.1% [8] - Key food items such as fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases, contributing to the overall CPI rise [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: stable demand industry leaders, companies innovating in new products and channels, and segments with reasonable valuations post-adjustment [9][51] - Specific companies recommended for attention include Guizhou Moutai, Miaokelando, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanjing Beer, and Salted Fish [9][51]

Market Overview - In the week from January 5 to January 9, 2026, 30 out of 31 industries in the Shenwan first-level industry index rose, with the comprehensive sector leading at a 14.55% increase, followed by defense and military at 13.63% and media at 13.10%. The only sector that declined was banking, which fell by 1.90% [10][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 3.82%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40% to 14120.15. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 28259.76 billion, totaling 14.13 trillion for the week [10][11] ETF Market Performance - A total of 10 new stock ETFs were listed during the week, including two AI ETFs focused on innovation and entrepreneurship, with a total issuance scale of 4.83 billion [19][21] - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 4.30%, with the satellite ETF from E Fund showing the highest increase at 22.46%. Conversely, the banking ETF experienced the largest decline at 2.00% [22][23] - The median weekly return for bond ETFs was -0.03%, with convertible bond ETFs performing the best, rising by 4.47% [25][26] - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 2.34%, with the Sino-Korean semiconductor ETF leading at a 15.52% increase [27][28] ETF Strategy Tracking - The PB-ROE framework identified communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and transportation as key sectors for the week, with a cumulative strategy return of 1.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47% [6][32] - Since the beginning of 2023, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 27.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.20% [34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the communication, agriculture, forestry, and transportation sectors for the upcoming week, along with ETFs corresponding to these industries. Additionally, it suggests monitoring wine ETFs, ChiNext 50 ETFs, medical ETFs, chip ETFs, and robot ETFs based on ETF subscription sentiment indicators [7][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][9] Core Insights - Recent advancements in vaccine research pipelines indicate that leading domestic companies are actively pursuing product iteration, technological platforms, and market gaps. This includes upgrades in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and the development of combination vaccines to fill domestic product shortages [4][9] - The vaccine industry is transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and homogenized competition. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by policy, demand, and technology [9][29] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has shown a cumulative decline of 5.78% since 2025, with a recent weekly increase of 7.49% [5][11] - The relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 26% over the past 12 months [4] Company Developments - Companies like CanSino and Kangtai Biotech have made significant progress with new vaccine approvals and clinical trials, including a 24-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and a combined acellular pertussis vaccine [4][9] - The recent clinical trial for a freeze-dried herpes zoster mRNA vaccine by Sinovac has commenced, targeting individuals aged 40 and above [4] Market Review - The vaccine sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is reported at 96.78X, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.88X, indicating a recent increase in valuation metrics [7][22] - The vaccine industry is characterized by a high proportion of Me-too pipelines, leading to intense competition and price reductions for certain products [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong innovation capabilities and differentiated product lines, recommending CanSino and highlighting the potential for demand in rabies vaccines due to increased incidence [9][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [5][7][32]. Core Insights - The market remains active, supporting the recovery of brokerage performance, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio has fallen to a low range not seen in nearly a decade, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for investing in the brokerage sector [5][32]. - The brokerage index has a PB of 1.41x, currently at the 38th percentile over the past ten years, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][10]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the CSI 300 Index by 2.8%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.9% during the week of January 5-9, 2026. The non-bank financial index increased by 2.6%, ranking 21st out of 31 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.2 percentage points [2][10]. - The top five performing brokerages during this period were Huayin Securities (+16.1%), Huaan Securities (+7.1%), Huaxin Co. (+7%), Changjiang Securities (+6%), and Caida Securities (+4.8%). The five brokerages with the largest declines were CITIC Securities (-0.5%), Bank of China Securities (-0.9%), CITIC Construction Investment (-1.7%), Guolian Minsheng (-2.3%), and Industrial Securities (-2.4%) [2][10]. Industry Weekly Data Brokerage Business - The average daily stock trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surged to 28,287 billion yuan, a 34% increase week-on-week, nearing the high point of August 2025. In December 2025, the average daily trading volume was 18,645 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][17]. - The new fund issuance in December 2025 included 35.6 billion shares for equity funds (up 26% year-on-year), 13.3 billion shares for mixed funds (up 52% year-on-year), and 51.3 billion shares for bond funds (down 53% year-on-year) [3][21]. Investment Banking Business - In 2025, a total of 332 companies engaged in equity financing, raising 10,826 billion yuan, a 273% increase year-on-year. This included 116 IPOs raising 1,318 billion yuan (up 95.4% year-on-year) and 172 additional issuances raising 8,877 billion yuan (up 413% quarter-on-quarter) [4][22]. Capital Intermediary Business - As of January 9, 2026, the margin financing and securities lending balance reached 26,276 billion yuan, a 3.4% increase week-on-week, continuing to set new highs and accounting for 2.82% of the total market capitalization of A-shares [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and recommends considering Jiufang Zhitu Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to strong performance certainty amid active market trading [5][32].

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved a "good start" in the first week of 2026, with major indices showing significant upward movement: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and ChiNext Index by 3.89% [2][3][9] - The rise in A-shares is attributed to several factors, including proactive measures by the National Development and Reform Commission in the "two new" sectors, the positive trends in December's PMI, PPI, and CPI, and the recovery of previously adjusted technology sectors [3][13] - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the mid-November 2025 high indicates an early onset of the spring market, with expectations of a recovery in the upward trend seen in the second half of 2025 [3][13] Group 2 - Among the 31 first-level industries, most have seen gains since the beginning of 2026, with the top performers being comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media, which have increased by 14.55%, 13.63%, and 13.10% respectively [4][25] - In the second-level industries, aerospace equipment II and wind power equipment have led the gains with increases of 24.49% and 20.01% respectively, while state-owned large banks II and joint-stock banks II have seen declines of -2.94% and -1.92% [4][26] - The third-level industries show marketing agency and aerospace equipment III as the top gainers with increases of 26.63% and 24.49%, while state-owned large banks III and home textiles have the largest declines at -2.94% and -2.56% [4][28] Group 3 - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a slight improvement, with December's PPI showing a year-on-year decline of -1.90%, an improvement from November's -2.20%, and CPI at 0.80%, marking the third consecutive month in positive territory [5][29][30] - The macro short-cycle composite index is in a slightly turning state, suggesting that the current cycle's bottoming process is still under observation [5][30] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 is optimistic, as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a supportive policy environment for industrial upgrades and a favorable macroeconomic cycle expected to benefit upstream cyclical industries [6][7][32] - The report highlights continued interest in sectors related to "anti-involution," insurance, securities, aerospace, and strong technology sectors like artificial intelligence [7][32]

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 232 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2026 年 1 月 9 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育 文 李正威 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录：邢维洁 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、金融工程 1、商品期货的多因子策略之因子筛选（邢维洁） 供理论支持，但在实际应用过程中需要根据 ICIR 方向进行相应的调整，同时要对因子表现的 背后逻辑进行推演，以确保因子在不同市场状态下的收益效果和稳定性。 不同时间维度下的因子选择 在不同时间维度的因子选择上，报告的关键发现在于因子有效性具有显著的频率依赖性， 这为策略构建提供了直接指导。 商品期货的因子分类 在商品期货多因子体系中，因子可依据其驱动逻辑和数据来源，系统性地划分为六大类 别，涵盖了动量、期限结构、量价、持仓、库存与波动率多个因子。它们共同构成了从市场 情绪、资金行为到深层供需基本面的全方位分析框架。 这六类因子并非孤立存在，而是构成了一个多层级的分析体系。动量与量价因子更多地 捕捉市场 ...