宏观研究 宏观月度数据点评 CPI 同比转正，PPI 降幅扩大 —— 6 月通胀数据点评 相关研究： 1. 《CPI同比由正转负，PPI同 环比负增长》 2024.03.12 2. 《核心CPI有所回暖，PPI继 续承压》 2025.04.14 3. 《CPI、PPI同比双降》 2025.06.09 分析师：何超 证书编号： S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 9 日 湘财证券研究所 ❑ 事件 根据 Wind 数据显示，6 月我国 CPI 同比增长 0.1%；PPI 同比下降 3.6%。 ❑ CPI 同比转正 根据 Wind 数据，6 月 CPI 食品项同比增速录得-0.3%，较前值上涨 0.1 个 百分点；CPI 非食品项同比增速录得 0.1，较前值上涨 0.1 个百分点。剔除 食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比增速为 0.7%，同样较前值上涨 0.1 个百分点。 总体来看，6 月消费物价水平正在温和回升，CPI 由降转涨主要受工业消 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for domestic consumption recovery, supported by recent promotional activities and government policies [6][23] - The retail sector experienced a slight decline of 0.16% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points [4][9] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 37.92X, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.81X, indicating a slight decrease in valuation metrics [5][15][17] Industry Performance - The retail sector's performance over the past twelve months shows a relative return of -3% for one month and +1% for three months, with an absolute return of -1% for one month and +4% for three months [3][4] - Specific segments within the retail sector showed varied performance, with internet e-commerce up by 1.83% and professional chains up by 0.9% [4][10] Industry Dynamics - The "618" promotional event demonstrated significant consumer engagement, with platforms like JD.com and Tmall leading in sales growth across various categories [6][18][22] - Cross-border e-commerce also saw substantial growth, with orders on Alibaba's international platform increasing by 42% year-on-year [19] - The report notes that the government's subsidy policies have effectively stimulated consumption, particularly in electronics and home appliances [22][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the ongoing potential for consumer spending, particularly in the digital and home appliance sectors, driven by trade-in policies [23] - It also recommends monitoring the performance of domestic beauty brands, which have gained consumer recognition and market share [23][7]

相关研究： 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 产业链上游价格坚挺，下游新增需求有限 | 《上周行业反弹，产业链价格维持弱势》 | | | --- | --- | | 20250629 | | | 《产业链价格震荡，镝、铽金属端价格走势 | | | 较弱》 | 20250622 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 1 4 42 绝对收益 4 8 58 -20% -5% 10% 25% 40% -10% 15% 40% 65% 90% 稀土磁材(长江)指数行业涨跌幅 对比基准:沪深300累计涨跌幅-右 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业小幅回调 0.53%，跑输基准（沪深 300） 2.07pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 0.4x 至 67. ...

行业研究 公用事业行业周报 高温天气下用电负荷创新高，电力供需格局改善 相关研究： 证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 6 日 湘财证券研究所 《新疆、蒙西"136号文"承接方案发 布，存量平稳过渡》 2025.06.29 《广东"136号文"征求意见，增量项 目保障比例不超过90%》 2025.05.18 《1-3月风光新增7433万千瓦，电网投 资延续高增》 2025.04.22 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1 0 -18 绝对收益 2 3 -2 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：孙菲 证书编号：S0500524010002 Tel：(8621) 50293587 Email：sf06902@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 行情回顾：本周公用事业(申万)上涨 2.26%，跑赢大盘 0.72 个百分点 根据 wind，截至 7 月 4 日，本周沪深 300 上涨 1.54%，公用事业(申万)上涨 2.26%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.72 个百分点，在申万一级行业中排名第 8 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The June PMI for the machinery industry has rebounded to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in general equipment and engineering machinery sectors [4][6] - Despite a decline in domestic engineering machinery operations, exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in May [5][6] - The overall demand for machinery equipment is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to easing US-China trade tensions and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has shown a relative return of 19.5% and an absolute return of 35.6% [3] General Equipment - The production index and new orders index have increased to 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating expansion [4] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing resilience, with a continuous recovery in PMI for May and June [4] Engineering Machinery - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in June were 77.2 hours, down 9.1% year-on-year [5] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery was 56.9%, a decline of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and strong export growth [6] - Specific companies to watch include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Hengli Hydraulic [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies, with several companies rated as "Buy" [20]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector saw a 1.27% increase last week, lagging behind other pharmaceutical segments, with the overall pharmaceutical sector rising by 3.64% [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.57X, up 0.34X week-on-week, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 2.28X, also showing a slight increase [3] - The market for traditional Chinese medicine materials is experiencing increased supply but declining prices, with a 0.5% drop in the total price index last week [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector's performance is weaker compared to other pharmaceutical segments, with notable companies like Jiuzi Tang and Zoli Pharmaceutical performing well, while others like Mayinglong and Dong'e Ejiao lag behind [2][15] Valuation - The current PE ratio of 27.57X places the sector at the 29.53% percentile since 2013, while the PB ratio of 2.28X is at the 5.37% percentile [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - The market for Chinese medicinal materials is characterized by increased production and declining prices, with a significant number of categories experiencing price drops [4] Policy Developments - The dual-track system for medical insurance and commercial insurance is being implemented, allowing for dynamic adjustments and submissions for inclusion in the basic medical insurance directory [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform, highlighting companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [11][12][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that new and second-hand housing transactions are slowing down year-on-year, indicating a need for continued policy support to stimulate demand [4][6] - The Beijing government is actively optimizing real estate policies to enhance housing supply and improve living conditions for residents [3][8] Summary by Sections Policy Tracking - On July 1, the Beijing government held a meeting to discuss advancing housing policies, emphasizing a multi-supplier and multi-channel housing supply system [3][8] - The focus is on improving the quality of housing and ensuring adequate land supply near transportation hubs and employment centers [3][8] Transaction Data - In June, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions reached 16,800 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% but a slowdown compared to previous months [4][6] - For new homes, the transaction area in 30 major cities was 2.63 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserves, such as Poly Developments [6][15] - It also recommends attention to major intermediary firms benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions, like I Love My Home [6][15]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [7][5][33] Core Viewpoints - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US increases tax credits for semiconductor manufacturers building new factories from 25% to 35%, which is expected to significantly lower expansion costs and encourage companies like TSMC, Intel, and Micron to accelerate their projects in the US [3][11][21] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has shown a continued upward trend, supported by strong capital expenditures and positive long-term technology demand expectations, with a year-to-date increase of 12.46% as of July 3, 2025 [4][15] - The demand for AI-related hardware is expected to rise due to the proliferation of AI large models and devices like AI smart glasses and AI smartphones, driving steady growth in the market for high-performance Ethernet switches, advanced storage products, GPUs, and edge computing chips [5][33] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [7][5][33] Market Overview - The semiconductor industry index experienced a decline of 1.18% from June 30 to July 4, 2025, while the broader market indices showed gains [10][13] - The semiconductor equipment sector led the performance among sub-sectors, while other sectors recorded declines [14] Key Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" Act was signed into law, which is expected to stimulate high-end manufacturing in the US and increase import tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-end chips [11][22] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Lanke Technology, Juchen Co., Shenkong Co., and Longxin Zhongke, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the semiconductor market [5][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The medical consumables sector saw a 3.77% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in the sector [4][12] - The current PE ratio for the medical consumables sector is 32.6X, with a PB ratio of 2.37X, reflecting a slight increase in valuation metrics [5][18] - Recent favorable policies in the pharmaceutical sector are expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of the medical consumables industry, particularly high-value consumables affected by national procurement policies [6][24] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical consumables sector reported a 3.77% increase, with the overall medical sector also trending upwards [4][12] - The sector's PE ratio has increased by 1.24 percentage points compared to the previous week, with a one-year range of 28.42X to 41.66X [5][17] Industry Dynamics and Key Announcements - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued guidelines for the adjustment of the 2025 basic medical insurance directory, emphasizing the role of commercial health insurance in the multi-tiered medical security system [20][21] - The adjustment of the medical insurance directory is expected to enhance the market entry of innovative drugs, which is a significant step for commercial health insurance [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: 1. Opportunities for performance recovery post-collection pressure, particularly in orthopedic consumables [24] 2. Increased penetration of innovative products in high-value consumables, such as electrophysiology and interventional devices [24] - The recommendation to maintain an "Overweight" rating on the medical consumables sector highlights the potential for growth in companies with improving performance metrics and innovative product lines [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][20] Core Viewpoints - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has issued policies to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, addressing industry pain points through ten major initiatives [5][12][20] - The policy focuses on four key areas: medical robotics, high-end medical imaging, AI medical devices, and new biological materials, aiming to enhance international competitiveness and meet public health needs [5][12][20] - The policy is seen as a systematic reconstruction of the development path for high-end medical devices, promoting both technological transformation and market expansion [6][12][20] Summary by Sections Policy Initiatives - The NMPA's announcement includes ten initiatives that cover the entire lifecycle of high-end medical devices, including approval acceleration, standard improvement, and international support [5][12] - Five core initiatives are highlighted: 1. Accelerated innovation approval to shorten product launch cycles for leading companies in AI medical devices and surgical robots [5][12][14] 2. Clarified classification standards to resolve regulatory ambiguities, creating market access opportunities for innovative SMEs [5][12][14] 3. Alignment with international standards to reduce overseas registration costs, benefiting companies with CE/FDA certifications [5][12][14] 4. Strengthened post-market supervision to enhance product quality and compliance among leading companies [5][12][14] 5. Addressing supply chain gaps to promote domestic substitution and structural growth for key component suppliers [5][12][14] Comparison with Previous Draft - The final document has made several optimizations compared to the previous draft, including: 1. Enhanced goals to include "improving international competitiveness" [7][16] 2. More detailed requirements for innovation review and post-market supervision [7][16] 3. Expanded scope to include new technologies and products [7][16] 4. More precise terminology and structure adjustments for clarity [7][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors likely to benefit from the new policies, such as AI medical devices, surgical robots, high-end medical imaging equipment, and brain-computer interfaces, with specific companies like Mindray, Meikang, Sanofi, and Ruimait being highlighted [10][20][21]