证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 4 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 电子行业 2025 年度中期策略 端侧 AI 继续升级，ASIC 需求景气高企 相关研究： 1.《小米发布AI眼镜，功能超越 Ray-Ban Meta》 2025.06.27 2.《鸿蒙6.0开发者版本发布，端 侧AI再升级》 2025.06.23 3.《Marvell上调算力ASIC市场规 模预期，算力ASIC需求强劲》 2025.06.21 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 5.28% 0.18% 22.70% -20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 25-05 25-06 25-07 电子(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：李杰 证书编号：S0500521070001 Tel：(8621) 50293525 Email：lijie5@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [7][26]. Core Views - In June, the transaction area of new and second-hand homes continued to decline year-on-year, influenced by weakened demand and high base effects from the previous year [5][26]. - The report suggests that policy measures in the second half of the year need to be strengthened, particularly regarding special bonds for acquiring idle land and accelerating the progress of existing housing projects, which could help stimulate demand and accelerate inventory clearance [5][26]. Summary by Sections Transaction Data - In June, the transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 13.3% month-on-month. This marks the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.4% for the first half of the year [2][10]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 13 monitored cities increased by 1% year-on-year in June, but the growth rate narrowed by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. The cumulative year-on-year increase for the first half of the year was 18%, down by 4 percentage points from the previous month [2][10]. Inventory Levels - The inventory level of new homes continued to decline in June, with the available area in the top ten cities being 7,770 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The absorption cycle remained stable at 19.7 months [3][19]. Sales Performance of Top 100 Real Estate Companies - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of the year was 1,836.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%. The sales area was 902.7 million square meters, down 19.7% year-on-year [4][22]. - In June alone, the sales revenue and area were 390.5 billion yuan and 179.5 million square meters, representing year-on-year declines of 15.9% and 25.1%, respectively [4][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two areas: (1) leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserve layouts, such as Poly Developments; (2) leading intermediary agencies benefiting from sustained activity in second-hand home transactions, such as Wo Ai Wo Jia [5][26].

债券研究 可转债研究 红利防御，双低为矛 相关研究： 核心要点： 证券研究报告 2024 年 06 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 ❑ 6 月权益市场风险偏好回升，转债表现偏弱 根据 Wind 数据，6 月（6.1-6.27）中证转债指数上涨 2.98%，中证全指上涨 3.13%；年初至今，中证转债指数、中证全指分别上涨 6.65%、3.43%。整体 来看，6 月中证转债指数与权益市场同步上涨，但跑输中证 500（-0.42pct） 和中证 1000（-1.17pct）。 按价格分类看，6 月万得低价转债指数涨幅（+3.35%）明显高于高价 （+2.52%）和中价指数（+2.72%）。年初至今，低价转债（+6.99%）表现 好于中价（+5.93%）和高价（+4.76%）。 按信用评级分，6 月 AA+（+3.8%）、AA-及以下（+3.6%）转债涨幅较大， AAA（+2.4%）、AA（+2.86%）转债亦取得不错的收益。全年来看，低评 级转债仍然显著跑赢高评级，尤其是 AA-及以下转债累计涨幅高达 11.55%。 ❑ 信息技术板块大幅上涨，日常消费板块正股与转债表现背离较多 根据 Wind 一级行业分类，6 月 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 公用事业行业周报 新疆、蒙西"136 号文"承接方案发布，存量平稳过渡 相关研究： 《广东"136号文"征求意见，增量项 目保障比例不超过90%》 2025.05.18 《1-3月风光新增7433万千瓦，电网投 资延续高增》 2025.04.22 《政府工作报告强调绿色低碳，关注新 能源高质量发展》 2025.03.11 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -4 3 -15 绝对收益 -2 2 -1 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：孙菲 证书编号：S0500524010002 Tel：(8621) 50293587 Email：sf06902@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 行情回顾：本周公用事业(申万)上涨 0.09%，跑输大盘 1.86 个百分点 根据 wind，截至 6 月 27 日，本周沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，公用事业(申万)上 涨 0.09%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.86pct，在申万一级行业中 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 大类资产研究 股市中性看多，债市关注长久期 ——2025 年三季度大类资产配置展望 | 1. | 《双维度视角下的资产配置 | | --- | --- | | 策略研究》 | 2024.03.31 | | 2. | 《权益中性偏多，看好大宗商 | | 品》 | 2024.07.26 | | 3. | 《权益和商品积极看多》 | | | 2024.09.30 | | 4. | 《股市仍强略转弱，债市仍弱 | | 略转强》 | | 2025.03.24 证书编号：S0500519120001 Tel：(8621) 50295323 Email：qh3062@xcsc.com 分析师：何超 证书编号：S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 分析师：李正威 证书编号：S0500522090001 Tel：021- 50295307 Email：lizw@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 宏观环境展望 大类资产展望 投资建议 我们认为 202 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 工业收入增长放缓，工程机械预期趋弱 ——机械行业周报（2025.06.23~2025.06.29） 相关研究： 1.《20250615湘财证券-机械行业：关注 可控核聚变、油气设备、工程机械》 2.《20250622湘财证券-机械行业：关注 机床工具、机器人、叉车》 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.0 -3.8 17.1 绝对收益 1.2 -3.6 30.4 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 通用自动化设备：1-5 月我国工业企业收入同比增长 2.7% 据 Wind 数据，2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the establishment of the first national vaccine inspection center in Beijing, expected to accelerate the market entry of innovative vaccines [3] - The draft of the Medical Security Law was presented, which may enhance the insurance coverage for vaccines during major infectious disease outbreaks [3] - The vaccine industry is currently facing performance pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, with a high proportion of Me-too products leading to intense competition and price declines [7][26] - Long-term focus on innovation and international expansion is recommended as key strategies for companies in the vaccine sector [7][28] Market Performance - The vaccine sector saw a 1.36% increase last week, with a cumulative decline of 9.84% since the beginning of 2025 [4][10] - The overall pharmaceutical sector experienced a 1.6% increase during the same period [4] Company Performance - Top-performing companies in the vaccine sector include Jindike, Kanghua Biological, and Liaoning Chengda, while underperformers include CanSino and Watson Biologics [5] Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 72.25X, with a PB (lf) of 1.76X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics compared to previous periods [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and innovative products, recommending Kanghua Biological and CanSino as potential investment opportunities [8][28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][38]. Core Insights - The company has a solid foundation in its traditional business, with a shift towards price-driven growth, particularly in high-end stationery products and IP collaborations, which effectively counterbalance the decline in the number of eligible users [4][24]. - The traditional stationery business is expected to maintain stable growth, driven by three main factors: the development of high-end cultural and creative products, continued penetration into overseas markets like Southeast Asia, and accelerated digital channel construction [24]. - The office direct sales business has been expanding, with stable net profit margins despite a downward trend in gross margins due to the nature of the sales model [5][28]. - The company is actively advancing its IP strategy, focusing on the retail terminal "Jiumu Miscellaneous Society," which targets Gen Z consumers and is expected to achieve significant revenue growth [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the stationery industry and is one of the largest manufacturers globally, with a strong brand recognition. Its core products include writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies, covering a wide range of needs from basic education to daily office use [11]. 2. Core Business Development - The traditional core business has shifted from volume-driven growth to price-driven growth, with significant increases in average selling prices for writing tools and student stationery, despite declining sales volumes [16][21]. - The office direct sales segment has become the largest revenue source, with a projected revenue of 13.83 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 3.9% year-on-year growth [25]. 3. IP Strategy and Retail Expansion - The company has embraced IP business, with a focus on the "Jiumu Miscellaneous Society," which is expected to generate 1.406 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, marking a 13% increase [6][29]. - The membership system has surpassed ten million, and the proportion of IP products is increasing, indicating a successful integration of IP into the product strategy [6][29]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.408 billion yuan, 31.344 billion yuan, and 35.136 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.574 billion yuan, 1.805 billion yuan, and 2.026 billion yuan [7][10][38].

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 27 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 指南针（300803.SZ）首次覆盖报告 证券业务开启第二增长曲线 公司评级：买入（首次覆盖） 近十二个月公司表现 -20% 30% 80% 130% 180% 230% 2024/06/27 2024/08/27 2024/10/27 2024/12/27 2025/02/27 2025/04/27 指南针 沪深300 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 39 | 34 | 195 | | 绝对收益 | 41 | 35 | 209 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 证券业务开启第二增长曲线，完成"一体两翼"业务布局 2022年是公司重要战略转折点，公司通过破产重整投资完成对网信证券（后 更名为麦高证券）的收购，获取了稀缺的券商牌照 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 114 号 孙菲 聂孟依 顾华昊 何超 整理记录：轩鹏程 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 1、 药品行业（张德燕） 市场分析与展望 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 06 月 25 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 汪炜 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 王逸奇 马丽明 贺钰偲 上周市场走势复盘：医药生物板块整体呈现回调，根据 Wind 数据，医药生物下跌 4.35%， 位列全市场一级行业跌幅第 3 位，跑输万得全 A 3.28 个百分点。13 个三级行业均呈现下 跌，药品制造相关行业跌幅居前，生物药、化学制药及原料药均呈现下跌，跌幅分别为 6.7%、5.7%和 4.5%。年度涨跌幅方面，2025.1.1-2025.6.22 医药生物上涨 4.6%，位列全市 场一级行业涨幅第 6 位，跑赢万得全 A 3.3 个百分点。13 个三级行业中 5 个子行业呈现上 涨，药品制造产业链表现居前，化学制剂、原料药及生物药涨幅居前，分别上涨 19 ...