策略研究 策略点评 A 股"开门红"预示春季行情正式展开 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 湘财证券研究所 ——1 月以来市场走势点评 核心要点： A 股市场实现"开门红" 据 Wind 数据，2026.01.05-2026.01.07 日，我们关注的 6 个 A 股指数连续上 涨，最终：上证指数上涨 2.95%（逼近 4100 点）、深证成指上涨 3.74%、 创业板指上涨 3.95%、沪深 300 上涨 3.17%、科创综指上涨 6.72%、万得全 A 上涨 3.80%。 2026 年以来，A 股主要指数走出"开门红"行情，原因有：一是发改委在"两 新"领域提前发力；二是 12 月 PMI 意外好转，给予市场 2026 年一季度经 济有望大幅好转的预期；三是此前调整的科技板块，与保险、证券等板块 形成上行共振。从上证指数近期走势来看，已突破 2025 年 11 月中旬高点， 形成上行突破态势，有望恢复 2025 年下半年的上行趋势。 行情展开的推力来自于：投资领域提前发力和 PMI 意外好转 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 首先，我国在投资领域提前发力，有望在一季度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The regulatory framework for information disclosure in the asset management sector has been further standardized, aiming to unify the disclosure rules for bank wealth management, trust, and insurance asset management products [4][12] - As of December 31, 2025, the scale of the wealth management market remains stable, with public fund size approximately 37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of about 14%, and the wealth management balance around 33 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 9% [6][12] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Dynamics - The new disclosure management measures require detailed reporting on performance benchmarks and investment asset types, enhancing transparency across the product lifecycle [5][12] - The wealth management market size has shown steady growth, with public funds and wealth management balances increasing [6][12] Wealth Management Product Yields - Cash management product yields have stabilized, with a 7-day annualized yield of 1.29% as of December 2025, unchanged from the previous value but down 54 basis points from the beginning of the year [7][16] - The average annualized yield for pure fixed-income products increased to 2.78%, while "fixed-income+" products saw an average yield of 2.44%, both reflecting upward trends due to market conditions [19][20] Wealth Management Product Break-even Rates - The break-even rate for pure fixed-income products rose to 3.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, while "fixed-income+" products had a break-even rate of approximately 3.7%, up by 1.2 percentage points [28]

Group 1: Financial Market Overview - As of December 31, 2025, there are 13,617 existing funds in the market, an increase of 142 funds compared to the previous month, with total net asset value reaching 36.32 trillion yuan, up by 315.15 billion yuan, indicating a continuous growth in the fund market [2] - In December 2025, the returns for value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.14%, 2.71%, and 3.69% respectively, with growth funds outperforming value funds [2] Group 2: ETF Market Analysis - By December 31, 2025, there are 1,401 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 32 from the previous period, with total assets under management at 6.02 trillion yuan, up by 329.58 billion yuan [3] - The median return for stock ETFs in December was 3.34%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return at -3.50%, and commodity ETFs returned a median of 2.58% [3] - Stock ETFs exhibited the highest internal deviation in December, while commodity and cross-border ETFs had internal deviations of 2.35% and 3.34% respectively, with bond ETFs having the lowest at 0.61% [3] Group 3: ETF Strategy Insights - The main industry focus for the leading fund's industry ETF rotation strategy in December was on banking, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals, with a cumulative return of -1.70% compared to the CSI 300 index's return of 2.28%, resulting in an underperformance of -3.98% [4] - For the year 2023, this strategy achieved a cumulative return of 48.47%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's return of 19.59% by 28.88% [4] - The PB-ROE framework's industry ETF rotation strategy focused on automotive, beauty care, and agriculture in December, with a cumulative return of -1.23% against the CSI 300 index's 2.28%, leading to an underperformance of -3.51% [4] - Year-to-date, this strategy yielded a cumulative return of 25.47%, slightly above the CSI 300 index's 19.59% return by 5.89% [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For January 2026, the report suggests a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and steel industries, recommending their respective industry ETFs [5] - The PB-ROE framework recommends focusing on the telecommunications, agriculture, and transportation sectors for January, along with their corresponding industry ETFs [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The traditional beverage industry is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards health-conscious consumption and personalized beverage options [6][12] - The beverage market is transitioning from a focus on sugary drinks to healthier, sugar-free alternatives, with sugar-free beverages projected to account for over 45% of the market by 2024 [7][15] - The industry is experiencing a dual-track development focusing on health and sensory enjoyment, with ready-to-drink beverages posing a significant challenge to traditional bottled drinks [17] Summary by Sections Current Situation - The past decade has seen a transformation in China's beverage industry, with evolving consumer demands and marketing strategies. Consumers now prioritize health, hydration, and personalized experiences over mere thirst quenching [6][12] Product Dimension - The beverage market's core trend is the pursuit of health, with sugar-free drinks becoming mainstream. In 2014, sugar-free beverages accounted for about 5%, which is expected to rise to over 45% by 2024. The market is now dominated by packaging water, tea drinks, and energy beverages [7][15][17] Channel and Marketing Dimension - The beverage industry is moving towards a multi-channel approach, emphasizing comprehensive channel coverage and online-offline integration. This shift presents opportunities for smaller brands to leverage social media and innovative marketing strategies to drive sales [8][20][21] Investment Recommendations - The food and beverage industry is characterized by resilience and is currently undervalued. The report suggests focusing on leading brands with strong channel advantages and emerging growth companies that align with health and experience trends. The industry is shifting from scale benefits to structural benefits, highlighting the importance of health and experience in future growth [9][22]

Industry and Company Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a significant boost in consumer demand, particularly during the New Year holiday, with a reported 5.9 billion people traveling across regions, leading to a 31% increase in ride-hailing demand on platforms like Didi [2][3] - The travel sector is seeing a shift towards experiential and emotional satisfaction, with a notable increase in bookings for unique experiences such as ice and snow tourism, which accounted for 40% of the top 20 domestic flight routes during the holiday [2][3] - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw a remarkable increase, with sales of 442,000 items, a 52.4% year-on-year growth, and total shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [4][5] - The number of tourists visiting Hainan surged, with flight and train bookings increasing by 49%, and hotel bookings for four-star accommodations rising by 61%, indicating a trend towards higher-quality lodging experiences [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong policy environment aimed at boosting consumption, with coordinated efforts from various government departments to stimulate market activity, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors [6][7] - There is a focus on structural opportunities within the retail sector, particularly in high-end domestic brands and the duty-free shopping market in Hainan, which are expected to benefit from ongoing consumer trends [7]

Industry Overview - The aerospace industry is witnessing significant developments with the IPO application of Blue Arrow Aerospace, marking a pivotal moment for commercial space ventures in China [2][3] - The expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's fifth listing standard to include commercial rocket companies signifies a broader acceptance of diverse industries in the capital market [2] Company Insights - Blue Arrow Aerospace, established in 2015, is a leading commercial aerospace company in China, focusing on the research, production, and launch services of liquid oxygen-methane engines and rockets [3] - The company successfully launched the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket on December 3, 2025, representing China's first attempt at first-stage recovery [3] - Despite currently operating at a loss, Blue Arrow Aerospace meets the requirements of the fifth listing standard, with an expected market valuation of no less than 4 billion [3] - The company aims to raise 7.5 billion for enhancing the production capacity and technology of reusable rockets, which is anticipated to significantly lower launch costs and foster the growth of downstream applications [4] Market Impact - The successful IPO of Blue Arrow Aerospace is expected to instill confidence in capital markets, providing a clear path for similar companies and attracting more venture capital into the sector [4] - The fundraising will focus on improving the capacity and technology of reusable rockets, which is likely to accelerate the maturation of China's commercial aerospace industry and enhance its international competitiveness [4] - The domestic aerospace sector is rapidly advancing, with significant technological breakthroughs and system developments, as evidenced by the successful maiden flights of the Long March 12 and Zhuque-3 rockets [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the equity market continued to recover and outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index significantly. The high - price convertible bonds were more elastic in the bull market, while the low - price convertible bonds were more resistant to decline during the market adjustment. The double - low strategy underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in the bull market [3][5]. - In 2026, the convertible bond valuation is expected to remain at a high level, and the pressure of individual bond call will increase. When selecting bonds, it is necessary to pay attention to industry rotation and individual bond selection, control risks and pursue elasticity [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - **Overall Market Performance**: In December, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.13%, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 3.25%. Throughout 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index rose 18.66% and 24.6% respectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.15 pct and the CSI 500 Index by 4 pct in December [3][15]. - **Performance by Price Classification**: In December, the Wind high - price convertible bond index rose 5.14%, while the medium - price and low - price convertible bond indexes rose 1.92% and 0.34% respectively. In 2025, the cumulative increases of the high - price, medium - price, and low - price convertible bond indexes were 28%, 16%, and 17% respectively [3][16]. - **Performance by Stock Size Classification**: In December, the Wind medium - cap and small - cap convertible bond indexes rose strongly by 2.52% and 3.23% respectively, while the large - cap convertible bond index fell 0.36%. In 2025, the small - cap convertible bond index rose 27%, leading the large - cap (+11%) and medium - cap (+19%) convertible bonds [19]. - **Performance by Credit Rating**: In December, high - rated convertible bonds continued to be weak. The AAA and AA+ convertible bond indexes rose - 0.01% and +1.87% respectively. In 2025, the AA - and below convertible bond index rose 28%, and the AA convertible bond index rose 25% [22]. - **Performance by Industry**: In December, only the energy (-2.05%) and financial (-0.39%) convertible bond indexes fell, while the corresponding underlying stock indexes rose 1.6% and 2.37% respectively. The largest increases in December were the materials (+3.66%) and optional consumption (+3.51%) convertible bond indexes. In 2025, the top three industries with the largest increases in the convertible bond indexes were materials (+26%), information technology (+25%), and industry (+24%), while the smallest were finance (+5%) and public utilities (+8%) [4][25]. - **Strategy Performance**: In 2025, the double - low strategy underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in the equity market bull market. The Wind double - low index rose 0.42% in December, while the high - price and low - premium index rose 5.78%. In 2025, they rose 30% and 12% respectively [5][32]. 2. Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 2.1 Double - Low Strategy Recommendations: Grasp Industry Rotation and Focus on Individual Bond Selection - **December Double - Low Portfolio Performance**: In December, the self - constructed double - low portfolio had a return of - 4.72%, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.13%. From June to the end of 2025, the cumulative return of the portfolio was 15.25%, underperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.06 pct, with a maximum drawdown of - 12.78% [6][35]. - **January 2026 Double - Low Portfolio Recommendation**: Optimistic about the "anti - involution", consumption, robot, and brokerage sectors in January. The number of portfolio targets is reduced to 5, with 3 new targets (Huairui Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond) and 2 original targets retained (China Southern Airlines Convertible Bond, Sanfang Convertible Bond). The average convertible bond price, conversion value, conversion premium rate, and double - low value of this portfolio are 122 yuan, 101 yuan, 23%, and 145 respectively [7][38]. 2.2 Industry Allocation Recommendations: Pay Attention to Call Risks, and Technology Remains the Main Line - In 2026, the equity market is still optimistic, which will keep convertible bond prices at a high level and increase the number of individual bonds facing call. It is recommended to choose high - growth technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robots, and also pay attention to the "anti - involution" (chemical, photovoltaic) and consumption sectors with low valuations and expected demand recovery [9][42].

Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December rose to 50.10%, marking the first expansion since April, driven by synchronized recovery in production and demand [2] - New export orders index increased from 45.90% in October to 49% in December, while the new orders index rose to 50.80%, indicating expansion [2] - The production index for December reached 51.70%, with large enterprises leading at 50.80%, while medium and small enterprises showed improvements but remained below the expansion threshold [2] Stock Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations from December 29 to December 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 18.41% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 29.87% over the year [3] - The technology sector benefited from the development of domestic models, while the "anti-involution" policy boosted cyclical stocks, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [3][4] - The overall performance of A-share indices in 2025 was positive, with significant gains in the ChiNext Index (49.57%) and the STAR Market Index (46.30%) [3] Industry Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals and communication sectors saw substantial annual gains of 94.73% and 84.75%, respectively, while the food and beverage sector faced declines [4] - The aerospace equipment II and communication equipment sectors led the secondary industry gains with increases of 146.03% and 130.60% [4] - The communication network equipment and aerospace equipment III sectors recorded the highest gains among tertiary industries, with increases of 176.57% and 146.03% [4] Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the report suggests a favorable policy environment for industrial upgrades, supporting a "slow bull" market [5] - The report highlights potential in insurance, securities, and agriculture-related sectors, as well as opportunities in aerospace aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of efficiency optimization and product innovation in the home appliance industry, recommending focus on leading companies in white goods and emerging technologies [11] Home Appliance Industry Insights - The home appliance sector saw a 0.7% increase, with components leading the gains, while the overall market remains competitive [7] - The current PE ratio for the home appliance industry is 15.33, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the broader market, suggesting investment potential [8] - January 2026 production for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed mixed results, with total production increasing by 6% year-on-year [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The weekly market amplitude narrowed, 50ETF and 300ETF slightly pulled back, while 500ETF showed high resilience. The overall trading volume in the options market shrank, and the open interest slightly increased, which was related to the pre - holiday cautious sentiment. However, from the perspective of implied volatility level and shape, the overall wait - and - see sentiment did not rise significantly. The report maintained the relatively optimistic view from the previous period and was also bullish on the performance of the growth sector [4][46] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot - Futures Market Review 1.1. Underlying Asset Market - From December 29th to December 31st, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated during the week, closing at 3968.84 with lower trading volume compared to the previous week. The Shenzhen Component Index also fluctuated, closing at 13525.02 with lower trading volume. - 50ETF opened at 3.120 at the beginning of the week and closed at 3.105 at the weekend, down 0.015 or 0.48% from the previous week, with a trading volume of 5.981 billion yuan. Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300ETF opened at 4.780 and closed at 4.753, down 0.031 or 0.65%, with a trading volume of 9.521 billion yuan. Southern CSI 500ETF opened at 7.579 and closed at 7.588, up 0.008 or 0.11%, with a trading volume of 7.777 billion yuan [2][7] 1.2. Index Futures Market - From December 29th to December 31st, all IH contracts of stock index futures closed down. Contract IH2601 fell by 0.79%. All IF contracts closed down, and contract IF2601 fell by 0.77%. All IC contracts closed down, with contract IC2601 falling by 0.01% [8] 2. Options Market Review 2.1. Trading and Open Interest - From December 29th to December 31st, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while the total open interest increased. The average daily trading volume was 600,912 contracts, a decrease of 170,092 from the previous week. The total open interest was 1,076,466 contracts, an increase of 69,862 from the previous weekend. The total open - interest PCR was 0.92, a decrease of 0.06 from the previous weekend [12] - The average daily trading volume of Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300ETF options decreased, and the total open interest increased. The average daily trading volume was 755,077 contracts, a decrease of 197,862 from the previous week. The total open interest was 1,090,086 contracts, an increase of 47,280 from the previous weekend. The total open - interest PCR was 0.87, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous weekend [15] - The average daily trading volume of Southern CSI 500ETF options decreased, and the total open interest increased. The average daily trading volume was 1,063,830 contracts, a decrease of 302,468 from the previous week. The total open interest was 1,065,802 contracts, an increase of 67,144 from the previous weekend. The total open - interest PCR was 1.07, basically unchanged from the previous weekend [19] 2.2. Volatility 2.2.1. Historical Volatility - As of December 31st, the 5 - day historical rolling volatility of 50ETF rose to 4.72%, near the five - year historical low. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 4.72%, 4.13%, 8.01%, and 9.71% respectively [23] - The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300ETF rose to 5.97%, near the 25th percentile of the five - year historical level. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 5.97%, 7.43%, 10.50%, and 12.44% respectively [27] - The 5 - day historical rolling volatility of Southern CSI 500ETF rose to 7.73%, near the 25th percentile of the five - year historical level. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, and 40 - day historical volatilities were 7.73%, 9.77%, 13.80%, and 16.65% respectively [28] 2.2.2. Implied Volatility - Before the holiday, the market trading volume shrank, the volatility level changed little, and the overall shape of implied volatility basically maintained the original situation. Currently, the curve shapes of 50ETF and 300ETF options remain relatively right - skewed, while the curve shape of 500ETF options is slightly left - skewed [32] 2.2.3. Comparison of Historical and Implied Volatility Trends - In terms of volatility, short - term volatility continued to remain at a relatively low level, currently at around the 25th percentile of the historical level. Monthly volatility also declined slightly. Before the holiday, implied volatility rose slightly, with an increase of less than 1%. The volatility difference widened, but the overall level was relatively controllable. The market sentiment was stable during the pre - holiday trading, and the volatility level only increased slightly, with the overall volatility remaining at a low level [39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The weekly market amplitude narrowed, 50ETF and 300ETF slightly pulled back, while 500ETF showed high resilience. The overall trading volume in the options market shrank, and the open interest slightly increased, which was related to the pre - holiday cautious sentiment. However, from the perspective of implied volatility level and shape, the overall wait - and - see sentiment did not rise significantly. The report maintained the relatively optimistic view from the previous period and was also bullish on the performance of the growth sector [4][46]

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 中药饮片纳入全国统一药品追溯码体系正在加快推进 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ下跌 1.67%，跌幅相对较小 根据 wind 数据，上周（2025.12.28-2026.01.03）医药生物报收 8084.61 点，下跌 2.06%；中药Ⅱ报收 6234.32 点，下跌 1.67%；化学制药报收 12742.31 点，下跌 2.34%；生物制品报收 6071.66 点，下跌 1.86%；医药商业报收 5280.19 点，下跌 2.68%；医疗器械报收 6302.86 点，下跌 2.33%；医疗服务报收 6273.96 点，下跌 1.4%。医药板块整体回调，中药板块跌幅相对较小。 从公司表现来看，根据 wind 数据，表现居前的公司有：万邦德、天目药业、 古汉医药、沃华医药、康惠股份；表现靠后的公司有：*ST 长药、ST 葫芦娃、 珍宝岛、众生药业、ST 百灵。 ❑ 估值：上周中药板块 PE（ttm）为 26.63X，PB（lf）为 2.24X 近期国家医保局发布《中药饮片追溯码编码规则》公开征求意见，《中 ...