证券研究报告 2024年 2月 27 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 环保及公用事业行业周报 内蒙古绿电交易试点方案获批，绿电交易进一步完善 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 本周环保及公用事业指数上涨4.58%，跑赢沪深300指数0.87个百分点 《电力辅助服务价格机制建立健 全，火电调节价值凸显》 2024.02.20 截止2月23日，本周沪深300上涨3.71%，创业板指上涨1.81%，环保及 公用事业指数上涨4.58%，跑赢沪深300指数0.87个百分点，在30个中信 《三部门联合发文，加强绿证与节 一级行业中排名第20位。子板块中，发电及电网板块上涨4.09%，燃气板 能降碳政策衔接》 2024.02.06 块上涨4.69%，供热或其他板块上涨9.58%，环保及水务板块上涨6.07%。 行业评级：增持 ❑ 本周全国碳市场CEA成交量下滑，成交均价持续走高 近十二个月行业表现 截止 2 月 23 日，本周全国碳市场 CEA 总成交量 47.51 万吨，周环比下降 73.92%，成交均价80.48元/吨，周环比上升11.13%，总成交额3823.74万 元。其中大宗协议交易和挂牌协议交易成交量分别为 10.91 ...

证券研究报告 2024年 2月 5日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 药品行业周报 波动加剧，关注产业与市场错配下的投资机会 —药品行业周报 1.29-2.4 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 国内医药生物波动加剧，较万得全A剔除金融、石化出现折价 1.《短期扰动，左侧配置创新药品 同时关注国改线》 2024.01.29 上周医药生物下跌11.6%，位列全市场一级行业跌幅第4位，跑输万得全 A 2.3pct。13个三级行业均呈现下跌，跌幅中位数10.9%。持续受到海外 2.《底部震荡，布局需求确定下的投 早期生物安全提案事件影响，药品产业链三级行业均呈现下跌，原料药、 资机会》 2024.01.22 化学制药及生物药分别下跌 14.8%、12.5%和 11.6%。全行业估值水平方 面，2 月2日医药生物PE-TTM（剔除负值）为22.2X，估值水平靠近负 2倍标准差位置，PB 2.2X，位于负2倍标准差以下位置，较万得全A剔 除金融、石化出现折价。海外市场方面，恒生医疗保健下跌10.5%，位列 一级行业跌幅第1位，跑输恒生指数7.9 pct。全球主要市场生科板块恒生 行业评级：增持 生科与纳指生科走势呈现显著分化，纳指生 ...

证券研究报告 2024年 03月 28日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 《国家卫生应急队伍管理办法》发布，中医药优势有望得到更大发挥 核心要点： ❑ 上周中药Ⅱ下跌0.85%，医药板块整体回调 相关研究： 上周（2024.03.18-2024.03.22）医药生物报收 7588.74 点，下跌 2.13%；中药Ⅱ 1. 《政府工作报告再提促进中 报收6916.55点，下跌0.85%；化学制药报收9704.02点，下跌1.62%；生物制 医药创新，中医药优势有待进一 品报收7037.39点，下跌3.83%；医药商业报收5593.31点，下跌1.79%；医疗 步发挥》 20240312 器械报收6707.58点，下跌1.38%；医疗服务报收5134.62点，下跌4.01%。医 2. 《2023年医药工业运行情况 药板块整体回调，其中，医疗服务跌幅最大，中药板块跌幅最小。 发布，中药饮片和中成药表现突 从公司表现来看，表现居前的公司有：大理药业、ST 康美、华润三九、太龙 出》 20240320 药业、嘉应制药；表现靠后的公司有：太极集团、*ST太安、康缘药业、寿仙 谷、大唐药业。 ❑ 上周中药PE(tt ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [2][5] Core Views - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 0.56% from March 25 to March 29, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points [3][7] - The beer market is entering its traditional consumption peak with increasing demand driven by social gatherings and leisure activities, supported by a reduction in costs due to the cancellation of anti-dumping measures on Australian barley [4][12] - The pork prices have shown an upward trend due to capacity reduction and increased short-term fattening practices among farmers, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [4][32] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's relative performance was ranked 15 out of 31, with snack foods, health products, and soft drinks showing positive growth [3][7] - The average price of live pigs and pork has increased, with the average price for live pigs at 15.04 yuan per kilogram and pork at 24.98 yuan per kilogram as of March 21 [32] Beer Market Insights - The beer industry is witnessing a trend towards premiumization, with consumers increasingly favoring high-quality products, which is expected to enhance sales of premium beer [4][12] - The overall consumption environment is improving, suggesting a potential for simultaneous increases in both volume and price for the beer sector [4][12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on performance during the earnings disclosure period, with expectations for stable first-quarter results and attention to catalysts for growth [5][45] - In the white liquor sector, there is a noticeable trend of concentration and differentiation, with recommendations to pay attention to high-end and regional leading companies [5][45] - The overall consumption recovery trend is clear, with snack foods, soft drinks, and beer maintaining high levels of market sentiment and improving profit margins [5][45]

证券研究报告 2024年 4月 9日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 环保公用行业点评 推广应用试点公示，国内生物柴油需求空间有望打开 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 我国生物柴油原料为废油脂，减排属性突出 《1-2月风光发电新增装机46.61GW， 水电利用小时修复》 2024.04.02 生物柴油是以油脂为原料，与甲醇或乙醇经酯转化而形成的脂肪酸酯，原 料包括植物油、动物油脂、废油脂、微生物油脂等，主要用于交通和工业 《1-2月全社会用电量同比增长11%， 领域燃料，可按一定比例掺入化石柴油中制成混合柴油。由于我国执行粮 火电增速加快》 2024.03.25 食安全战略，我国生物柴油原料主要采用废油脂，减排属性突出。 行业评级：增持 ❑ 我国生物柴油主要向欧盟出口，国内应用路径仍在探索 近十二个月行业表现 欧盟地区是生物柴油应用较为成熟的市场，消费量和进口量占全球比重分 别为33.7%和46.1%。目前我国生物柴油尚未进入国有成品油体系，在交通 燃料油领域的推广应用仍在探索，国内应用有限，2023年我国生物柴油消 费量为6.1亿升，占生产量比重仅26.2%，我国生物柴油主要向欧盟地区出 口。近一年由于欧盟多机构对中 ...

证券研究报告 2024年 4月 9 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 清明旅游消费强劲，白酒龙头长期依旧稳健 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 4月1日-4月3日，食品饮料行业上涨1.30% 1. 《春糖召开在即，关注市场 上周，上证指数上涨 0.92%，深证成指上涨 1.53%，沪深 300 指数上涨 情绪催化》 2024.03.12 0.86%，创业板指上涨1.22%。申万食品饮料行业上涨1.30%，涨跌幅排名 2. 《春糖反馈符合预期，理性 18/31，跑赢沪深300指数0.86pct，食饮子板块涨跌不一，其中其他酒类 情绪下预期差减小》 2024.03.25 上涨8.85%，预加工食品上涨4.09%，烘焙食品上涨2.72%。 3. 《财报窗口期，关注业绩催 ❑ 清明旅游消费强劲，白酒龙头长期依旧稳健 化》 2024.04.02 4月6日，文化和旅游部公布 2024年清明节假期文化和旅游市场情况。 数据显示，假期3天全国国内旅游出游1.19亿人次，按可比口径较2019 行业评级：增持 年同期增长 11.5%；国内游客出游花费 539.5 亿元，较 2019 年同期增长 12.7%，整体出游消费较 ...

证券研究报告 2024年 04 月02 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 证券行业周报 2023 年行业经营数据发布，投资业务占比显著提升 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：上周券商板块小幅调整，跑输沪深300指数3.6个百分点 1.《证券行业事件点评：提高上市 公司质量，优化行业竞争格局》 上 周（3.25-3.29）上证指数下跌0.2%，深证成指下跌1.7%，沪深300指数 下跌 0.2%，创业板指下跌 2.7%。非银金融(申万)下跌 2.5%，涨跌幅排名 2024.3.18 26/31，跑输沪深300指数2.3pct；其中，券商指数下跌3.8%，跑输沪深300 指数3.6pct，券商指数PB估值1.1x，处于近十年的1%分位。 行业评级：增持 上周仅浙商证券（+3.2%）一家券商上涨，跌幅最小的四家券商为招商证 券（-0.3%）、申万宏源（-0.9%）、西部证券（-1.1%）、华泰证券（-1.4%）。 跌幅最大的五家券商分别为：信达证券（-5.7%）、中信证券（-6.3%）、国 近十二个月行业表现 联证券（-7.6%）、首创证券（-8%）、华创云信（-9.3%）。 20% ❑ 行业周数据：3月股票型和债 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the IVD and medical services industry [5]. Core Views - The medical services sector has shown a significant decline, with a 3.53% drop last week, underperforming compared to the broader market [2][9]. - The current PE ratio for the medical services sector is 23.65X, with a historical high of 36.83X and a low of 21.56X over the past year [3][21]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the ADC and peptide CDMO sectors, with the global ADC market expected to grow from $7.9 billion in 2022 to $64.7 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of 30% [5][39]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical services II index closed at 4953.48 points, down 3.53%, while the overall pharmaceutical index fell by 2.33% [2][16]. - The medical services sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.12% over the past month [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The current PB ratio for the medical services sector is 2.66X, with historical extremes of 5.29X and 2.58X [3][21]. - The medical services sector's valuation is at a historical percentile of 0.41%, indicating a significant decline in valuation compared to historical averages [3][21]. Key Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth segments such as CXO, private specialty medical services, and the IVD industry, particularly in light of the aging population and increasing healthcare demands [5][39]. - The report suggests that the demand for private specialty medical services, especially in ophthalmology and dental care, is expected to grow due to an aging population and favorable policy changes [35][36]. Market Trends - The report notes that the medical outsourcing services sector is experiencing stable growth, with a particular focus on peptide and ADC CDMO industries [5][39]. - The report anticipates that the IVD market will face some adjustments post-COVID but is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2025, with significant growth in immunodiagnostics and molecular diagnostics [37][39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The Chinese traditional medicine sector has shown a positive performance, with 34 listed companies reporting earnings forecasts, where 76% of them expect a year-on-year increase in net profit [6] - The sector experienced a significant decline of 10.1% last week, influenced by the U.S. biosecurity legislation, leading to a broader adjustment in the pharmaceutical sector [3][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the traditional medicine sector is 21.91X, down 2.45X from the previous week, indicating a downward trend in valuation [4] - The total index of traditional Chinese medicine prices increased by 0.3% last week, reflecting a stable market with slight upward momentum [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The traditional medicine sector index closed at 6005.22 points, down 10.1% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector index fell by 11.61% [3][10] - Among the listed companies, Guangyuyuan, Shanghai Kaibao, and Dong'e Ejiao performed well, while companies like Longjin Pharmaceutical and Dali Pharmaceutical lagged behind [3] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for the traditional medicine sector is currently at 21.91X, with a one-year maximum of 33.61X and a minimum of 21.55X, indicating a valuation percentile of 13.8% over the past decade [4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 2.16X, with a one-year maximum of 3.10X, reflecting a valuation percentile of 3.1% over the last ten years [4] Market Trends - The market for traditional Chinese medicine materials is stable, with a total price index of 255.10 points, showing a slight increase due to seasonal demand [5] - The performance of 34 listed companies indicates a strong outlook for 2024, driven by increased demand for respiratory and pandemic-related medications [6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on innovation within the traditional medicine sector and exploring new consumption opportunities under the "Traditional Medicine +" perspective [7][8] - Key areas of interest include companies with strong R&D capabilities and those that have products listed in the new medical insurance catalog [7]

证券研究报告 2024年 04月 08 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 煤炭行业周报 需求乏力，淡季煤价持续探底 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：煤炭板块上涨2.34%，估值回升 1《. 原煤产量收缩，火电需求大增》 2024.03.20 上周（4.1-4.3）煤炭板块（801950.SI）上涨 2.34%，同期沪深 300 上涨 0.86%，行业跑赢基准指数（沪深300）1.48个百分点。截至4月3日， 2.《动力煤淡季偏弱，焦煤逐步企 煤炭行业板块PE估值为10.5倍（TTM，剔除负值），处于近十年来54.9% 稳》 2024.04.02 分位点；板块PB估值为1.52倍，处于近十年来74.51%分位点，估值周 环比回升。 行业评级：增持 ❑ 国内市场煤价偏弱，淡季需求提振乏力 国内动力煤市场价下跌，国际动力煤以涨为主。国内方面：截至 4 月 7 近十二个月行业表现 日，CCTD秦皇岛Q5500动力煤市场价为820元/吨，周环比下跌3.53%。 20% 煤炭(申万) 沪深300 12% 截至4月7日，澳洲NEWC、欧洲ARA和南非查理德RB动力煤现货价 6% 10% 0% 最新价格为126美元/吨、1 ...