证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 证券行业周报 市场交投保持活跃，估值仍有修复空间 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0 -6 11 绝对收益 3 -7 29 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2024/2/8 2024/4/8 2024/6/8 2024/8/8 2024/10/8 2024/12/8 2025/2/8 沪深300 证券Ⅱ(申万) （1）经纪业务：上周（2.10-2.14），沪深两市日均股票成交额为 17168 亿 元，环比增长 7.5%，节后两周环比连续保持增长。春节假期后市场交投活 跃度显著回暖，交易量回升至 12 月的较高水平 新发基金方面，上周（2.10-2.14）基金发行节奏仍未恢复至正常水平，股 票型、混合型、债券型新发份额分别为 5 亿份、0.1 亿份、38 亿份，其中 股票型环比下降 54%，债基发行大幅增加。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 E ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 注重盘存量与提效率，银行经营持续稳健 | 1.《增量政策推进，关注银行配置 | | | --- | --- | | 价值》 | 2024.11.10 | | 2.《自律机制规范存款定价，缓解 | | | 银行息差压力》 | 2024.12.03 | | 3.《2025年度策略：积极政策下的 | | | 股息选择》 | 2024.12.19 | | 4.《宽信用力度有望加强，银行股 | | | 高股息优势延续》 | 2025.01.07 | | 5.《信贷"开门红"，对公贷款如 | | | 期回暖》 | 2025.02.18 | 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.37 12.30 9.74 绝对收益 4.44 8.12 26.80 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 市场回顾：银行指数上涨 2.09%，大型银行和股份行市场表现领先 本期（202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][9] Core Views - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.72% in the past week, with the valuation rising. The PE ratio stands at 15.4 times, at the 58.6th percentile over the past decade, while the PB ratio is at 0.95 times, at the 25.3rd percentile, indicating a week-on-week increase in valuation [5][6] - Supply and demand are both increasing, with demand gradually recovering. As of February 14, the apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 6.63 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15.2%. The production of major steel products has also seen a slight increase [6][9] - Steel mill profitability has declined, with the profitability rate for 247 sample steel companies at 50.66%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85 percentage points. The prices of major steel products have shown a downward trend [8][9] Summary by Sections Market Review - The steel sector's performance has been slightly below the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.47 percentage points, with absolute returns of 4% over the past month [4][5] Supply Data - As of February 14, the total production of five major steel products was 8.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.9%. The iron water production was 2.2793 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.25% [6][7] Demand Data - The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased significantly, with construction materials consumption rising by 22.0% and plate consumption by 13.9% week-on-week [6][9] Inventory Data - The total inventory of five major steel products reached 18.225 million tons as of February 14, with a week-on-week increase of 151.38 thousand tons, reflecting a 9.1% rise [7][9] Profitability and Price Data - The price indices for major steel products have decreased, with rebar at 3444 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decline of 1.01%. The overall profitability rate for steel mills has also decreased [8][9] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, demand is expected to gradually release as downstream construction units resume operations. Long-term investment value is seen in leading companies with scale advantages and those focusing on high-end and green transformation [9][59]

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土永磁行业周报 上周行业大幅跑输基准，钕铁硼价格涨后趋稳 相关研究： | 《上周稀土原料价格全面上调，成本端支撑 | | | --- | --- | | 下钕铁硼价坚挺上行》 | 20250211 | | 《节前行业小幅上涨，成本端支撑尚可，钕 | | | 铁硼价格趋稳》 | 20250206 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6 0 27 绝对收益 -3 -3 45 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： ❑ 上周轻稀土精矿价格走平，中重稀土矿价格延续小幅上行 轻稀土矿方面，上周国内混合碳酸稀土矿、四川氟碳铈矿及山东氟碳铈矿 价格分别持平于 2.5 万元/吨、2.2 万元/吨和 1.7 万元/吨，进口独居石矿价 格持平于 4.09 万元/吨，美国矿价格持 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The recent revision of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" aims to accelerate the transformation and high-quality development of the steel industry [5][6] - The new regulations establish a graded and classified management system, promoting the transformation of steel enterprises through a two-tier evaluation of "Standard Enterprises" and "Leading Standard Enterprises" [6] - Short-term benefits are expected from the new regulations, particularly for green steel companies with high energy efficiency and those with technological advantages in scrap utilization and electric furnace steel production [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The steel industry has shown relative returns of 3% over one month, 2% over three months, and a negative 9% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [4] Regulatory Changes - The new normative conditions replace the 2015 version and emphasize compliance with production activities, environmental protection, resource consumption, safety production, and quality management [6] - The new regulations include 6 primary indicators and 20 secondary indicators for "Standard Enterprises," while "Leading Standard Enterprises" are evaluated based on 6 primary and 32 secondary indicators focusing on high-end, intelligent, green, efficient, and safe production [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with high energy efficiency and technological advantages in scrap utilization are more valuable for investment in the short term [7] - Long-term investment value is expected to be higher for leading enterprises with scale advantages as the industry undergoes high-quality development and regional capacity consolidation [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The food and beverage industry has shown a positive performance with a 2.34% increase from February 10 to February 14, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points [5][11] - The government is emphasizing consumption recovery as a key measure to boost domestic demand, which is expected to benefit leading liquor companies and high-end products [7][14] - The overall consumption market is showing signs of recovery, driven by policy support and economic improvement, with a focus on the recovery opportunities in the restaurant chain sector [8][41] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector outperformed the broader market indices, with specific segments like pre-processed foods, liquor, and beer showing notable increases of 3.40%, 3.13%, and 1.55% respectively [5][11] - The average price of live pigs and pork has seen a decline, with live pig prices at 16.64 yuan/kg and pork at 28.24 yuan/kg as of February 6, 2025 [6][31] Policy Impact - The government is implementing measures to support consumer income and optimize the consumption environment, which is expected to stimulate market recovery [7][14] - The liquor industry is experiencing a trend of inventory control and price stabilization, with major brands like Fenjiu halting supply of key products to enhance market pricing [7][14] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high valuation elasticity such as condiments, dairy products, beer, and liquor, as well as sectors with high growth potential like snacks and soft drinks [8][41] - The food and beverage industry is viewed as a cyclical sector that is likely to experience valuation recovery [8][41] Key Data Tracking - As of February 18, 2025, the reference wholesale price for Feitian Moutai is 2235 yuan/bottle, reflecting a decrease of 1.97% from the previous week [24] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.12 yuan/kg, down 8.72% year-on-year [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The lithium battery materials industry saw a 1.93% increase last week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.74 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) rose by 0.64x to 33.98x, currently at a historical percentile of 32.3% [4] - The current supply-demand situation is in a recovery phase, with short-term demand declining due to pre-holiday stockpiling and seasonal factors. However, medium to long-term demand is expected to benefit from policy support and downstream procurement [12][46] - The overall profitability of the lithium battery materials sector remains under pressure due to cost increases and supply chain oversupply, with many segments maintaining low price levels [12][46] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The lithium battery materials industry increased by 1.93% last week, outperforming the benchmark by 0.74 percentage points. The industry valuation rose to 33.98x, reflecting a historical low [4][16] Positive Material Insights - Positive material prices for ternary precursors remained stable, while lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. The production and operating rates for positive materials decreased due to seasonal demand [5] - The price of lithium iron phosphate for power applications slightly decreased by 0.28% to 35,700 CNY/ton, while the production and operating rates also saw a decline [6] Electrolyte Market - The prices of raw materials and electrolytes remained stable, with low profit margins persisting in the industry. The production of electrolytes increased by 7.57% to 30,355 tons, but overall demand is expected to recover slowly [7][8] Negative Material Insights - The production and operating rates for negative materials increased, but profit margins are being squeezed by rising costs. The average price for artificial graphite remained stable at 32,700 CNY/ton [9] Separator Market - The separator market continues to face oversupply, with inventory levels rising. Prices are expected to remain weak due to excess capacity and competitive pricing pressures [10] Copper Foil Market - The prices and processing fees for lithium battery copper foil remained stable across various thicknesses [11] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, citing the potential for recovery in profitability once supply-demand imbalances are addressed. Current valuations are at historical lows, indicating some room for growth [12][46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The credit market shows a strong start in January, with corporate loans rebounding as expected [5][15] - The total social financing (社融) increased by 7.06 trillion yuan in January, which is 583.3 billion yuan more than the previous year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0% [6][15] - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by RMB loans and government bond financing, reflecting effective policy implementation [15][17] Summary by Sections Credit Market Performance - In January, RMB loans increased by 5.13 trillion yuan, which is 210 billion yuan more than the previous year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [7][15] - Corporate loans contributed significantly, with an increase of 4.78 trillion yuan, which is 920 billion yuan more than the previous year [7][16] - The demand for corporate loans is improving, particularly in medium to long-term loans, indicating a strong recovery in corporate financing needs [7][16] Social Financing and Economic Policy - The government has accelerated fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure projects, which has boosted financing demand in related sectors [15][17] - The overall credit structure indicates strong corporate loan momentum, while retail credit recovery is still under observation [8][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: first, high-quality regional banks are expected to show greater operational performance elasticity and higher dynamic dividend yields; second, state-owned large banks continue to offer significant high dividend value [11][25] - The overall outlook for bank performance remains positive, supported by favorable real estate and debt management policies [11][25]

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 国防军工行业周报 全国低空交通一张网项目启动，助力低空行业有序发展 ——国防军工行业周报（02.10~02.14） 相关研究： 1.《20240812湘财证券-国防军工 行业-千帆星座首批组网卫星成 功发射，关注相关产业链发展》 2024.08.12 2.《20241202湘财证券-国防军工 行业-海南商业航天发射场首次 发射成功，关注相关产业链发 展》2024.12.02 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -0.6 -5.7 7.9 绝对收益 3.0 -6.5 24.9 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 国防军工(申万) 沪深300 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621)50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 联系人：汪炜 Tel：(8621)50299604 Email：ww07001@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路8 ...