Research and Development Center ——策略周观点 [ Table_Title] | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

图 12: 原油、国内航煤价差（美元/桶，美元/桶） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|----------|-------|--------|-----------|-------|--------|-----------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90 | | 2020 - | + 2021 -- | | | +- 2023 = -2024 | | | | 200 | Brent 10th - = 关国经济 100 | | | 80 70 | | | | | 2022 - | | | | | 150 20 ...

➢ 风险因素：（1）地缘政治因素对油价出现大幅度的干扰。（2）宏 观经济增速下滑，导致需求端不振。（3）OPEC+联盟修改石油供应 计划的风险。（4）美国解除对伊朗制裁，伊朗原油快速回归市场的 风险。（5）美国对页岩油生产环保、融资等政策调整的风险。 （6）新能源加大替代传统石油需求的风险。（7）全球 2050 净零排 放政策调整的风险。 表 1: 上游板块主要公司涨跌幅(%) ➢ 相关标的：中国海油/中国海洋石油（600938.SH/0883.HK）、中国 石油/中国石油股份（601857.SH/0857.HK）、中国石化/中国石油化 工 股 份 （600028.SH/0386.HK） 、 中 海 油 服/中 海 油 田 服 务 （601808.SH/2883.HK）、 海油 工程（600583.SH）、中 曼石 油 （603619.SH）等。 表 目 录 目 图 | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------| | | | | 一周原油点评 . | | | 油价回顾: | | | 油价观点： | | | 石油石化板块表现 | | | 石油石化板块表现: | ...

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[Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 28 日 内库存周环比下降 0.10%。本周钢价微涨，原料价格整体偏弱，日照 港澳洲粉矿（62%Fe）下跌 8.0 元/吨，京唐港主焦煤库提价下跌 12 0.0 元/吨。需注意的是，在宏观政策空窗期与钢价持续走弱的背景 下，市场贸易商冬储意愿偏低。临近年末，市场库存持续下降至低 位，冬储也逐渐成为市场关心的话题。华北、东北等北方钢厂从 11 月开始陆续发布冬储政策，与此同时，暂未看到南方钢厂发布冬储政 策，考虑到春节假期时间，钢厂可能会选择在 1 月上旬密集发布相关 冬储政策。总体看，实质性冬储阶段已到，钢价或已接近底部位置， 叠加宏观政策不断支撑经济向好回升，考虑到当前钢材社会库存与厂 内库存均处于低位，我们预计钢材价格有望震荡偏强运行。 Research and Development Center 万吨）。五大钢材品种社会库存周环比下降 1.13%，五大钢材品种厂 ➢ 投资建议：虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润 整体下行，但伴随系列"稳增长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望 在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发展、 ...

Research and Development Center [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 28 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 目 录 图 35: 欧盟天然气消费量（我们估算）（百万方） ● 截至12月28日收盘，本周公用事业板块上涨1.2%，表现优于大盘；沪深300上涨1.4%到3981.0；涨幅前三的行业 分别是银行（3.8%）、石油石化（2.0%）、公用事业（1.2%），跌幅前三的行业分别是社会服务（-5.4%）、计 算机（-4.3%）、纺织服饰（-3.8%）。 资料来源：iFinD，信达证券研发中心 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 6 资料来源：iFinD，信达证券研发中心 15666646523.tcy 多省 2025 年长协电价落地，11 月我国天然气表观消费量同比下降 0.3% | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Research and Development Center 2024 年 12 月 28 日 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

化工行业周报： 制冷剂等价格上行，山东发文布局精细化工产业发展 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com3 资料来源：同花顺 iFind，信达证券研发中心 -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 非金属材料Ⅱ 化学原料 农化制品 化学纤维 化学制品 橡胶 塑料Ⅱ 行业基础数据 Researchand DevelopmentCenter 本上涨或产品价格下降；经济扩张政策不及预期 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------| | | 表 1: 主要化工产品涨跌幅持名 . | 表目录 | | | | 图目录 | | | 图 1: 中万一级行业一周表现. | | | | ...

请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 33 负责本报告全部或部分内容的每一位分析师在此申明，本人具有证券投资咨询执业资格，并在中国证券业协会注册登记为证券分 析师，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告；本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了分析师本人的研究观点；本人薪酬的 任何组成部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体分析意见或观点直接或间接相关。 信达证券股份有限公司(以下简称"信达证券")具有中国证监会批复的证券投资咨询业务资格。本报告由信达证券制作并发布。 本报告是针对与信达证券签署服务协议的签约客户的专属研究产品，为该类客户进行投资决策时提供辅助和参考，双方对权利与 义务均有严格约定。本报告仅提供给上述特定客户，并不面向公众发布。信达证券不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为本公司的当 然客户。客户应当认识到有关本报告的电话、短信、邮件提示仅为研究观点的简要沟通，对本报告的参考使用须以本报告的完整 版本为准。 本报告是基于信达证券认为可靠的已公开信息编制，但信达证券不保证所载信息的准确性和完整性。本报告所载的意见、评估及 预测仅为本报告最初出具日的观点和判断，本报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the oil and gas development industry as "Positive" [3]. Core Insights - High oil prices are expected to accelerate the development of new oil and gas fields, as increased demand or decreased supply leads to higher prices, enhancing the cost safety margin for producers and driving capital expenditures [3][11]. - The development of offshore oil and gas resources is gaining momentum, with significant potential due to rich reserves and lower development costs compared to onshore resources [3][30]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in marine engineering, which have improved resource accessibility and reduced costs, enhancing the feasibility and economic viability of offshore oil and gas development [3][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of the Past: Global Oil and Gas Development Cycle - The oil market typically experiences four phases: rising prices due to demand exceeding supply, introduction of new non-traditional oil supplies, a surplus leading to price declines, and subsequent investment cuts by producers to restore balance [11][12]. 2. Future Outlook: Offshore Oil and Gas Resource Development 2.1 Global Offshore Oil and Gas Development Potential - Offshore oil and gas reserves are significantly larger than onshore, with 60% of new discoveries in the last decade occurring offshore, particularly in deepwater and ultra-deepwater areas [30][34]. - The exploration level for offshore resources remains low, with a conventional oil and gas reserve-to-production ratio of 67 years for offshore compared to 48 years for onshore [30][34]. 2.2 China’s Offshore Oil and Gas Resource Potential - China's Bohai Sea is at a peak exploration stage, while the South China Sea is in the early exploration phase, indicating substantial future development potential [3][30]. 3. Technological Advancements Driving Production - The average development costs for offshore oil and gas have decreased significantly, with deepwater and shallow water breakeven prices dropping to $43 and $37 per barrel, respectively, by 2023 [40][41]. - The report emphasizes that advancements in marine engineering technology have led to increased operational efficiency and reduced costs, making offshore resources more commercially viable [3][40]. 4. Investment Opportunities in the Oil and Gas Sector 4.1 Oil and Gas Resource Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and its partners, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on offshore resource development [3][4]. 4.2 Oilfield Services Investment Opportunities - The global oilfield services industry is expected to experience a prolonged upturn due to high oil prices and increased demand for offshore resource development [3][4].