Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating optimism about future performance and growth potential [11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that policy guidance is expected to drive economic data improvement, particularly in real estate demand, which is anticipated to boost the banking sector [11][19]. - It highlights that the banking sector is characterized by high dividend levels, enhancing its defensive attributes, and that capital increases from major banks are likely to support both capital and operations [4][39]. - The report suggests that the banking sector is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the economy, with a focus on the potential for valuation recovery and stable dividend yields [14][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Economic Outlook - Policies are expected to promote fundamental recovery, with real estate demand likely to improve, supported by financial measures aimed at stabilizing the market [25][50]. - The report notes that the central bank has increased monetary policy control, including lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, which is expected to stabilize net interest margins for banks [11][28]. 2. Performance and Financial Metrics - The report indicates that the banking sector has seen a slight year-on-year increase in revenue, with net profit growth improving, particularly among state-owned and regional banks [12][39]. - It mentions that net interest margins continue to narrow but are expected to stabilize as deposit rates decline [12][39]. - Asset quality remains robust, with manageable non-performing loan ratios and a stable provisioning coverage ratio, indicating strong risk resilience [12][39]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific banks with growth potential, including regional banks with strong fundamentals and national banks with solid dividend yields [5][39]. - It highlights the importance of high dividend yields in enhancing the attractiveness of bank stocks, with many banks increasing their dividend payouts [14][39]. - The report suggests that the banking sector is likely to experience a valuation rebound, driven by favorable policies and economic recovery [14][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, indicating a favorable outlook despite current challenges [5]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation phase, with companies focusing on stabilizing their market positions and addressing various challenges such as supply-demand mismatches and declining consumer sentiment [5][6]. - Key companies like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu are expected to leverage their brand strength and channel advantages to navigate through the downturn and achieve steady growth [6]. Summary by Sections Guizhou Moutai - Moutai's development is supported by three fundamental factors: confidence in China's economic growth, strong brand recognition, and the unique quality of Moutai liquor [1]. - The company aims to target the "new business" demographic and create tailored drinking experiences that resonate with this group [1][2]. - Moutai plans to enhance its product offerings and adjust its market strategies to stimulate consumer demand and improve service levels [10][9]. Wuliangye - Wuliangye has maintained stable pricing for its core products and is focusing on enhancing its brand value through strategic product launches and market expansion [16][17]. - The company is implementing a twelve-character marketing strategy emphasizing price stability, sales activation, and resource efficiency [18]. Shanxi Fenjiu - Fenjiu has achieved significant sales growth, with an increase in the number of high-performing distributors [28]. - The company is focused on high-quality development and aims to establish itself as a leading brand in the liquor industry by 2030 [29]. Other Companies - Liquor companies are increasingly adopting digital transformation strategies to stabilize prices and enhance market engagement [25]. - Companies like Yanghe and Jiuziyuan are focusing on brand upgrades and expanding their market presence through innovative marketing strategies [32][41]. Market Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards more personalized and experiential consumption, prompting companies to adapt their marketing and product strategies accordingly [2][6]. - The overall market environment is characterized by a need for companies to balance product quality, brand value, and consumer engagement to maintain competitiveness [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Simer International (6969 HK), indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6 months [2] Core Views - Simer International has implemented a comprehensive incentive plan, including granting 61 million share options to the chairman with performance targets tied to market capitalization milestones of HKD 300 billion, 400 billion, and 500 billion by 2025-2030 [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the compliant e-cigarette market in the US, with core client VUSE's Alto tobacco flavor PMTA approval and NJOY's menthol approval driving market share gains [5] - Simer International is well-positioned in the HNB (heat-not-burn) market, with a deep partnership with British American Tobacco and the potential to provide integrated product solutions for the Glo Hilo product [5] - The company's R&D efforts in areas such as HNB, medical, and beauty are starting to bear fruit, with several products in the pipeline and commercialization underway [5] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from HKD 11 168 million in 2023 to HKD 16 606 million in 2026, representing a CAGR of 14% [14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from HKD 1 645 million in 2023 to HKD 2 551 million in 2026, with a significant acceleration in growth from 2025 onwards [14] - The company's gross margin is expected to recover from 38 81% in 2023 to 43 73% in 2026, driven by product mix optimization and scale effects [16] - R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue remain high at 15% in 2024H1, reflecting the company's continued investment in innovation [5] Industry Outlook - The global HNB device market reached USD 2 13 billion in 2023, with sales volume of 41 million units, representing year-on-year growth of 13 7% and 18 4% respectively [5] - The HNB market is expected to maintain a CAGR of 13% in sales and 10% in volume from 2023 to 2028, indicating a long growth runway for the industry [5] - Regulatory tightening in Europe has impacted the disposable e-cigarette segment, with H1 2024 revenue declining by 18 9% year-on-year [5] Valuation - The stock is trading at 48 8x, 41 9x, and 25 6x P/E for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, based on the report's earnings forecasts [5] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 2 87x in 2024 to 2 43x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability and return on equity [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [30]. Core Insights - The power supply-demand tension is gradually easing nationwide, with the East China region still experiencing tight supply-demand conditions. The construction of supportive power sources is accelerating, and a significant increase in coal-fired power generation capacity is expected to alleviate supply issues by 2026 [30][43]. - In Anhui province, electricity demand is projected to continue growing, driven by high-tech manufacturing sectors such as computers, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles. The province's electricity consumption has consistently reached new highs, supported by government policies ensuring supply security [30][41]. - The report highlights that Anhui's power supply is primarily reliant on coal-fired generation, with a significant concentration of installed capacity among major state-owned enterprises. The ongoing construction of coal-fired power projects is expected to peak in 2026, addressing the anticipated power supply gap [30][40]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Supply-Demand Analysis - The report indicates that Anhui province will face a power supply gap of approximately 10 million kilowatts from 2024 to 2025, which is expected to persist until mid-2026. Continuous approval and construction of coal-fired projects will be necessary to maintain balance beyond 2027 [32][41]. - The overall electricity consumption in Anhui is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase in total electricity consumption from 321.4 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023 to 440.6 billion kilowatt-hours by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% [8][30]. Section 2: Key Power Projects and Developments - Major power projects in Anhui include the construction of new coal-fired plants, with significant projects expected to come online by 2026. The report lists several projects, including the Chizhou Phase II and Anqing Phase III, which are anticipated to contribute to the province's power generation capacity [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "External Power Supply to Anhui" initiative, which aims to enhance the province's power supply capacity through high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission projects, with the Shaanxi-Anhui HVDC project expected to be operational by the second half of 2026 [3][40]. Section 3: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the Anhui power sector, particularly companies with strong coal supply agreements and those involved in the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The focus on coal-fired generation is expected to provide stable returns amid rising electricity demand [9][12]. - The analysis suggests that companies like Huaihe Energy and Anhui Energy Group are well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing developments in the power sector, given their strategic coal supply arrangements and operational efficiencies [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and domestic production capabilities. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China faces significant challenges due to U.S. sanctions, but there is a strong push towards self-sufficiency and domestic production [2][100]. - The AI sector is expected to see substantial growth, with opportunities in both hardware and software, particularly in the development of AI SoCs and storage chips [2][103]. - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming more active in the semiconductor sector, particularly among analog chip companies, which may lead to rapid growth and expansion [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The semiconductor and component sectors have shown significant growth, with semiconductor prices increasing by 31% year-to-date as of December 23 [5]. - The report anticipates continued upward trends in the market driven by AI themes through 2025 [5]. AI Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for domestic AI SoC companies such as Hengxuan Technology and Rockchip to thrive as demand for edge AI solutions grows [2]. - The demand for storage chips is expected to rise due to increased performance requirements from edge AI applications, with companies like GigaDevice and Winbond being recommended for investment [2]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The report notes an increase in merger and acquisition activity among analog chip manufacturers, suggesting that domestic companies are poised for rapid development and market expansion [2]. Semiconductor Market Trends - Global semiconductor sales are recovering, with a reported 22% year-over-year increase in October 2024, indicating a positive trend for the industry [68]. - The Chinese semiconductor market is also growing, with a 17% year-over-year increase in sales as of October 2024, positioning it as a key player in the global market [69]. Domestic Production and Self-Sufficiency - The report emphasizes the urgency for domestic semiconductor production capabilities, particularly in high-end materials and equipment, as the U.S. continues to impose restrictions [76][97]. - The domestic production rate for semiconductor equipment is expected to reach 50% by 2025, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers [101].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company's short-term performance is affected by public opinion, but the impact is gradually weakening, with daily sales steadily improving and returning to high growth [5] - The company's long-term growth logic remains unchanged, with strong brand operation capabilities and steady progress in nationalization of offline channels [5] - Online platforms such as Tmall and JD are gradually forming a repurchase cycle, and the impact of public opinion is expected to be significantly smaller compared to Douyin [5] - The company's product structure continues to upgrade, with the proportion of probiotics in the core five provinces rapidly increasing [5] - The company's team execution and cohesion are excellent, and the underlying capabilities are expected to remain unaffected by public opinion, with a return to high growth anticipated [5] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue is expected to grow from 1,612 million in 2022 to 5,066 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.0% from 2023 to 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 187 million in 2022 to 513 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 27.2% from 2023 to 2026 [7] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 45.1% in 2022 to 56.8% in 2026 [7] - ROE is expected to increase from 14.6% in 2022 to 36.8% in 2026 [7] - EPS (diluted) is expected to grow from 0.44 yuan in 2022 to 1.19 yuan in 2026 [7] Competitive Analysis - The company's competitors, such as Taotaoyangmian and Naisi Princess, have also seen significant growth in GMV on Douyin, with Taotaoyangmian's GMV increasing by 168% YoY and Naisi Princess's GMV increasing by 541% YoY [5] - The company's brand, Free Point, has pioneered a new approach in the content e-commerce era, leveraging Douyin to drive sales and then transferring to Tmall and JD for repurchase, setting a benchmark for new fast-moving consumer goods brands [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.0 billion, 3.9 billion, and 5.1 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33.4X, 25.6X, and 19.7X [5] - The company's offline channel expansion in peripheral provinces is maintaining high growth rates, and the online repurchase cycle on Tmall and JD is gradually forming [5] - The company's product structure is continuously upgrading, with the proportion of probiotics in the core five provinces rapidly increasing [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electronics industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [3][21]. Core Insights - The AI hardware upgrade cycle is intensifying, with the B300 model expected to enter mass production in 2025, which is anticipated to significantly advance the AI industry [3]. - The report highlights that the current advancements in foundational AI models are benefiting various AI terminals, such as AI glasses and AI smartphones, suggesting a promising growth trajectory for consumer electronics [3]. - Key companies to watch include both overseas and domestic players in the AI sector, as well as notable consumer electronics firms, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming product launches and technological advancements [3]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes mixed performance in the Shenwan electronics sector, with year-to-date changes in sub-indices: Semiconductors (+30.29%), Other Electronics II (+35.61%), Components (+36.27%), Optical Electronics (+7.71%), Consumer Electronics (+17.93%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+1.43%) [3][21]. Stock Performance - Major North American tech stocks have shown varied performance, with year-to-date changes for key players: Apple (+32.75%), Tesla (+73.72%), Broadcom (+116.57%), Qualcomm (+8.72%), TSMC (+93.88%), Micron (+3.86%), Intel (-59.60%), and Nvidia (+176.66%) [6]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the overseas AI sector include: Industrial Fulian, Huadian Technology, Shenghong Technology, and Shengyi Technology. Domestic AI companies to monitor include: Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Xingsen Technology, and Shenzhen South Circuit [3]. - In the consumer electronics space, notable firms include: Lens Technology, Lingyi Technology, Pengding Holdings, Dongshan Precision, and Dazhong Laser [3].

—— 量化市场追踪周报（2024W51） 2024 年 12 月 29 日 TMT 板块主力资金与 ETF 资金双双流出 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 金工定期报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com 量化市场追踪周报(2024W51)：TMT 板块主力资 金与 ETF 资金双双流出 2024 年 12 月 29 日 截至 2024/12/27，主动权益型基金的平均仓位约为 86.42%。其中，普通股 票型基金的平均仓位约为 88.47%（较上周上升 0.32p ...

证券研究报告 Research and Development Center [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 29 日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

出口链业绩靓丽，重视智能眼镜&新型烟草 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 22 日 Research and Development Center 产业机会 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...