[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告 海南封关叠加旺季红利，重点关注免税板块 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 22 日 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事件点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 免税 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 范欣悦 商社行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 商社行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮 箱：luyaning@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 海南封关叠加旺季红利，重点关注免税板块 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 22 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 事件：ummar海南自由贸易港于 y] ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][10]. Core Insights - The company, Shenhuo Co., Ltd., is a leading producer of electrolytic aluminum and coal in China, with a significant integrated supply chain advantage [7][19]. - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience strong profitability due to limited new capacity and increasing demand from traditional and new energy sectors [10][55]. - The coal business is recovering, with a focus on high-quality coking coal production, benefiting from regional advantages and regulatory constraints on supply [10][19]. - The company has a high return on equity (ROE) and dividend yield, indicating strong financial health and potential for increased shareholder returns [10][17]. - The company's valuation is lower than comparable firms, suggesting significant upside potential [10][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. was established in 1998 and is primarily engaged in the production and sale of aluminum products and coal, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 1.7 million tons per year [7][19]. - The company has substantial coal reserves, with 1.309 billion tons of total reserves and 605 million tons of recoverable reserves [7][19]. Aluminum Sector - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by government policies, with a production ceiling of 45 million tons, leading to a favorable pricing environment [44][51]. - Demand for aluminum is expected to grow, driven by traditional sectors like construction and emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and solar energy [55]. Coal Sector - The company produces high-quality coking coal, with annual production capacities of 3.45 million tons of smokeless coal and 5.1 million tons of lean coal [7][19]. - The coal market is stabilizing, with prices expected to recover due to regulatory measures limiting supply [10][19]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 37.625 billion yuan in 2023 to 40.653 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit forecasted to increase from 5.905 billion yuan to 5.291 billion yuan in the same period [9]. - The company's ROE is expected to remain high, with a TTM ROE of 17.8% as of Q3 2025, indicating strong profitability [10][17]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 19, 2025, the company's PE ratio is 11.2, lower than the average of comparable companies at 13.3 [10][17]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 41.6%, with a dividend yield of approximately 3%, positioning it favorably among industry peers [10][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery trend in the pharmaceutical market, driven by the passage of the revised Biological Safety Act in the U.S., which is expected to improve valuations and performance in the CXO sector [3][10] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the AI and healthcare sectors, particularly with the recent upgrade of Ant Group's AI health application, which has seen significant user engagement [3][10] - The upcoming JPM Healthcare Conference is anticipated to be a major catalyst for innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, with over 8,000 participants expected [3][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's weekly return was -0.14%, ranking 22nd among 31 primary sub-industry indices, while the pharmaceutical commercial sector had the highest weekly return of 4.94% [3][10] - Over the past month, the sector's return was -2.50%, ranking 19th, with the pharmaceutical commercial sector again leading with a return of 4.68% [3][10] Policy Dynamics - On December 17, 2025, the National Health Commission released an action plan to enhance elderly care services, aiming to improve the care system by 2027 [3][10] - The National Medical Products Administration published guidelines for clinical trial institutions to enhance regulatory oversight [3][10] CXO and Life Sciences - Recommended leading CXO companies include WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and others, while domestic clinical CRO leaders such as Tigermed and others are also highlighted [3][10] - The life sciences upstream supply chain includes companies like BGI and others [3][10] AI + Healthcare - Key companies in AI healthcare models include Zhiyun Health and others, while AI imaging and diagnostics sectors also have notable players [4][10] High-end Medical Devices - Companies benefiting from the recovery in hospital procurement include Mindray and others, while domestic demand for consumer medical devices is gradually recovering [4][10] Innovative Drugs - Focus areas include small nucleic acids, ADCs, and dual/multi-antibody therapies, with recommended companies in each category [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The 2025 version of the National Recommended Directory for Energy-Saving and Carbon Reduction Technologies has been released, listing over 350 technologies with energy-saving rates between 15% and 60%, all exceeding the national first-level energy efficiency standards [4][13] - Canada will launch a sustainable investment taxonomy in 2026 to identify green and transition investments, following a commitment made by the previous government [5][19] - The report highlights the increasing adoption of clean low-carbon hydrogen production technologies, including electrolysis and hydrogen fuel cell systems, which are expected to accelerate green hydrogen applications [4][13] Summary by Sections Domestic Highlights - The 2025 version of the National Recommended Directory for Energy-Saving and Carbon Reduction Technologies was officially released on December 15, 2025, covering industrial energy-saving, information technology, and high-efficiency energy-saving equipment [4][13] - New long-duration energy storage technologies have been added, including high-pressure solid thermal storage and zinc-iron flow batteries [4][13] International Highlights - Canada is set to implement a sustainable investment classification system by the end of 2026, aimed at identifying green investments [5][19] ESG Financial Products Tracking - As of December 21, 2025, a total of 3,873 ESG bonds have been issued in China, with a total outstanding amount of 5.72 trillion RMB, of which green bonds account for 62.04% [6][29] - The market has 946 existing ESG products with a total net asset value of 1,166.66 billion RMB, with ESG strategy products making up 45.01% of the total [6][35] - There are 1,216 existing ESG bank wealth management products, with pure ESG products accounting for 53.87% [6][40] Index Tracking - As of December 19, 2025, major ESG indices have underperformed the market, with the Wind All A Sustainable ESG index showing the largest decline of 0.79% [7][41] - Over the past year, major ESG indices have generally increased, with the Shenzhen ESG 300 index rising by 17.79% [7][41] Expert Opinions - Key technological innovations are essential for achieving carbon neutrality, with significant opportunities in commercializing core technologies that are not yet fully developed [9][43] - The transition to carbon neutrality faces challenges, including the need for a comprehensive policy framework and the commercialization of critical technologies [9][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal market continues to exhibit weakness, with prices under pressure due to warm temperatures and persistent port inventory accumulation. The price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 coal has decreased by over 100 yuan per ton since November 21 [3][11] - The underlying logic of supply control in the coal industry remains unchanged, and despite a short-term oversupply, the market is still in a bottoming process, with coal prices potentially nearing their bottom [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of December 20, the market price for Qinhuangdao port Q5500 coal is 711 yuan per ton, down 42 yuan from the previous week. The price for Shanxi-produced coal at the pit in Yulin is 760 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3][30] - International coal prices have also seen declines, with Newcastle Q5500 coal at 75.0 USD per ton, down 2.0 USD [3][30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate for sample coal mines is 90.4%, down 2.1 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 86.62%, up 1.3 percentage points [3][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 16.60 thousand tons per day, a 4.23% drop, while consumption in coastal provinces has increased by 4.70 thousand tons per day, a 2.35% rise [3][48] 3. Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a long-term high barrier to entry. The report suggests focusing on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the cyclical nature of coal investments, with a recommendation to accumulate during price corrections due to high dividend yields and potential price rebounds [11][12] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector has shown a 0.60% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 0.28% decline [14][17] - Specific stocks within the coal mining sector, such as Anyuan Coal and Huabei Mining, have shown notable performance increases [20][21]

2 中国首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型获得准入许可，特斯拉在奥斯汀启 动无乘员 Robotaxi 路测 | 证券研究报告 | | | --- | --- | | 行业研究 | | | [Tabl 行业周报e_ReportType] | | | [Table_StockAndRank] 汽车 | | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Industry] 汽车周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 赵启政 汽车行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030004 邮箱：zhaoqizheng@cindasc.com [中国首批 Table_Title] L3 级自动驾驶车型获得准入许 可，特斯拉在奥斯汀启动无乘员 Robotaxi 路测 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资要点： 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The company, Micron, reported FY26Q1 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $13.643 billion, a year-over-year increase of 57% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 21% [3][25] - The gross margin was 57%, up 17 percentage points year-over-year and 11 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3][25] - Net income reached $5.482 billion, representing a 169% increase year-over-year and a 58% increase quarter-over-quarter [3][25] - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be between $18.7 billion and $19.1 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 68% [3][31] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) guidance for FY26 has been raised to $20 billion, up from the previous estimate of $18 billion [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY26Q1 was $13.643 billion, with a gross margin of 57% and net income of $5.482 billion [25] - DRAM revenue was $10.8 billion, up 69% year-over-year, while NAND revenue was $2.7 billion, up 22% year-over-year [3][25] - The cloud storage business saw revenue of $5.284 billion, doubling year-over-year [3][29] Business Segment Performance - The company reported strong performance across its business segments, with the following revenue contributions: - Cloud Memory (CMBU): $5.284 billion, gross margin of 66% [29] - Core Data (CDBU): $2.379 billion, gross margin of 51% [29] - Mobile and Client (MCBU): $4.255 billion, gross margin of 54% [29] - Automotive and Embedded (AEBU): $1.720 billion, gross margin of 45% [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has announced the acquisition of a 100% stake in a US-based home furnishings manufacturer for $0.32 billion, along with a $0.27 billion interest-free loan to help the target company repay its debts. The target company primarily engages in the manufacturing and sales of soft home furnishings, with projected revenues of $239 million and $188 million for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, respectively, and net losses of $3.9 million and $9.69 million (excluding goodwill amortization and bad debts, it is expected to achieve slight profitability) [1][2] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's production capacity in the US, mitigate future tariff and trade risks, and allow for immediate integration into the target company's existing customer supply chain of over 1,000 clients, thereby expanding market share. The company is anticipated to empower the target through improved raw material procurement, automation, and core component support, which may lead to sustained profitability optimization [2] - The company is expected to face slight operational pressure in Q4 due to intensified international trade friction and weak domestic demand. However, it is predicted that e-commerce will continue to perform well as the company increases its online resource investment and develops social media marketing strategies to enhance brand exposure and conversion rates [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for fiscal years 2026-2028 to be HKD 2.20 billion, HKD 2.30 billion, and HKD 2.49 billion, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 8.4X, 8.0X, and 7.4X [2] - Key financial indicators for the company include total revenue projections of HKD 16.90 billion for 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of -8%, and expected revenues of HKD 16.55 billion, HKD 18.93 billion, and HKD 20.30 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [4][5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the Cinda derivatives research report series. Adjustments are made to the settings for continuous hedging[44] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to December 19, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Holding the total return index of the corresponding benchmark index[45] - **Futures Side**: - 70% of the funds are allocated to the spot side - The remaining 30% is used for shorting futures contracts of the same nominal principal (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000 index futures)[45] - After each rebalancing, the quantities of the spot and futures sides are recalculated based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: - Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than two days - Close the position at the closing price on that day and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[45] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging, as described in the Cinda derivatives research report series[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to December 19, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Holding the total return index of the corresponding benchmark index[46] - **Futures Side**: - 70% of the funds are allocated to the spot side - The remaining 30% is used for shorting futures contracts of the same nominal principal (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000 index futures)[46] - After each rebalancing, the quantities of the spot and futures sides are recalculated based on the product's net value[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: - Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing - Select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening a position - Hold the same contract for eight trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than eight days, then select a new contract[46] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[46] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -3.42% (monthly), -2.58% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.79% (monthly), 4.69% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.27% (monthly), -8.74% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.8886 (monthly), 0.9149 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -6.60% (monthly), -3.91% (quarterly)[48] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 0.33% (monthly), 0.69% (quarterly)[53] - Volatility: 2.89% (monthly), 3.23% (quarterly)[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[53] - Net Value: 1.0112 (monthly), 1.0236 (quarterly)[53] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[53] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.21% (monthly), 0.37% (quarterly)[53] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.02% (monthly), 1.95% (quarterly)[57] - Volatility: 2.96% (monthly), 3.36% (quarterly)[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly)[57] - Net Value: 1.0350 (monthly), 1.0679 (quarterly)[57] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[57] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.42% (monthly), 1.85% (quarterly)[57] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -6.48% (monthly), -4.82% (quarterly)[61] - Volatility: 4.73% (monthly), 5.75% (quarterly)[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[61] - Net Value: 0.8319 (monthly), 0.8498 (quarterly)[61] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[61] - 2025 YTD Return: -12.98% (monthly), -7.87% (quarterly)[61] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -1.93%[48] - Volatility: 4.49%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -8.75%[48] - Net Value: 0.9361[48] - Annual Turnover: 16.78[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -4.27%[48] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.09%[53] - Volatility: 3.00%[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[53] - Net Value: 1.0376[53] - Annual Turnover: 15.01[53] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.40%[53] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.58%[57] - Volatility: 2.97%[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[57] - Net Value: 1.0548[57] - Annual Turnover: 15.60[57] - 2025 YTD Return: 1.36%[57] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -4.42%[61] - Volatility: 5.50%[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[61] - Net Value: 0.8693[61] - Annual Turnover: 15.73[61] - 2025 YTD Return: -8.19%[61] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[63] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on overseas methodologies, adjusted for China's on-exchange options market[63] - Captures implied volatility from options pricing to reflect market sentiment[63] - **Factor Values** (as of December 19, 2025): - SSE 50 VIX: 15.85 - CSI 300 VIX: 17.10 - CSI 500 VIX: 26.35 - CSI 1000 VIX: 19.91[63] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market concerns about tail risks[70] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves for options with different strike prices[70] - Higher SKEW values indicate increased demand for out-of-the-money options, reflecting heightened tail risk concerns[70] - **Factor Values** (as of December 19, 2025): - SSE 50 SKEW: 101.20 - CSI 300 SKEW: 101.08 - CSI 500 SKEW: 102.87 - CSI 1000 SKE

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.93%, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore also saw gains [2][11] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tightening supply situation, with high furnace capacity utilization at 84.9% and a slight decrease in production [3][25] - The report highlights the potential for value recovery in the steel sector, particularly for companies with high gross margins and strong cost control [4] Supply Summary - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 84.9%, down by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [3][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2655 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.65 thousand tons [3][25] - The total production of five major steel products is 6.918 million tons, down by 3.92 thousand tons week-on-week [3][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.353 million tons as of December 19, a decrease of 4.44 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 99 thousand tons, showing a slight increase of 0.10 thousand tons week-on-week [3][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 9.065 million tons, down by 352.6 thousand tons week-on-week, but up 18.06% year-on-year [3][44] - Factory inventory stands at 3.883 million tons, down by 2.05 thousand tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3][44] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,448.7 yuan/ton, up by 14.76 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 42 yuan/ton, which has doubled week-on-week [3][57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,423 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.0 yuan/ton [3][57] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-end steel production [4] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others, which are positioned for growth and value recovery [4]